Showing papers in "Pure and Applied Geophysics in 2013"

Lessons Learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami: Performance of Tsunami Countermeasures, Coastal Buildings, and Tsunami Evacuation in Japan

Abstract: In 2011, Japan was hit by a tsunami that was generated by the greatest earthquake in its history. The first tsunami warning was announced 3 min after the earthquake, as is normal, but failed to estimate the actual tsunami height. Most of the structural countermeasures were not designed for the huge tsunami that was generated by the magnitude M = 9.0 earthquake; as a result, many were destroyed and did not stop the tsunami. These structures included breakwaters, seawalls, water gates, and control forests. In this paper we discuss the performance of these countermeasures, and the mechanisms by which they were damaged; we also discuss damage to residential houses, commercial and public buildings, and evacuation buildings. Some topics regarding tsunami awareness and mitigation are discussed. The failures of structural defenses are a reminder that structural (hard) measures alone were not sufficient to protect people and buildings from a major disaster such as this. These defenses might be able to reduce the impact but should be designed so that they can survive even if the tsunami flows over them. Coastal residents should also understand the function and limit of the hard measures. For this purpose, non-structural (soft) measures, for example experience and awareness, are very important for promoting rapid evacuation in the event of a tsunami. An adequate communication system for tsunami warning messages and more evacuation shelters with evacuation routes in good condition might support a safe evacuation process. The combination of both hard and soft measures is very important for reducing the loss caused by a major tsunami. This tsunami has taught us that natural disasters can occur repeatedly and that their scale is sometimes larger than expected.

Numerical Simulation of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami Based on a New Transient FEM Co-seismic Source: Comparison to Far- and Near-Field Observations

Abstract: In this work, we simulate the 2011 M9 Tohoku-Oki tsunami using new coseismic tsunami sources based on inverting onshore and offshore geodetic data, using 3D Finite Element Models (FEM). Such FEMs simulate elastic dislocations along the plate boundary interface separating the stiff subducting Pacific Plate from the relatively weak forearc and volcanic arc of the overriding Eurasian plate. Due in part to the simulated weak forearc materials, such sources produce significant shallow slip (several tens of meters) along the updip portion of the rupture near the trench. To assess the accuracy of the new approach, we compare observations and numerical simulations of the tsunami's far- and near-field coastal impact for: (i) one of the standard seismic inversion sources (UCSB; Shao et al. 2011); and (ii) the new FEM sources. Specifically, results of numerical simulations for both sources, performed using the fully nonlinear and dispersive Boussinesq wave model FUNWAVE-TVD, are compared to DART buoy, GPS tide gauge, and inundation/runup measurements. We use a series of nested model grids with varying resolution (down to 250 m nearshore) and size, and assess effects on model results of the latter and of model physics (such as when including dispersion or not). We also assess the effects of triggering the tsunami sources in the propagation model: (i) either at once as a hot start, or with the spatiotemporal sequence derived from seismic inversion; and (ii) as a specified surface elevation or as a more realistic time and space-varying bottom boundary condition (in the latter case, we compute the initial tsunami generation up to 300 s using the non-hydrostatic model NHWAVE). Although additional refinements are expected in the near future, results based on the current FEM sources better explain long wave near-field observations at DART and GPS buoys near Japan, and measured tsunami inundation, while they simulate observations at distant DART buoys as well or better than the UCSB source. None of the sources, however, are able to explain the largest runup and inundation measured between 39.5° and 40.25°N, which could be due to insufficient model resolution in this region (Sanriku/Ria) of complex bathymetry/topography, and/or to additional tsunami generation mechanisms not represented in the coseismic sources (e.g., splay faults, submarine mass failure). This will be the object of future work.

Correlating P-wave Velocity with the Physico-Mechanical Properties of Different Rocks

Abstract: In mining and civil engineering projects, physico-mechanical properties of the rock affect both the project design and the construction operation. Determination of various physico-mechanical properties of rocks is expensive and time consuming, and sometimes it is very difficult to get cores to perform direct tests to evaluate the rock mass. The purpose of this work is to investigate the relationships between the different physico-mechanical properties of the various rock types with the P-wave velocity. Measurement of P-wave velocity is relatively cheap, non-destructive and easy to carry out. In this study, representative rock mass samples of igneous, sedimentary, and metamorphic rocks were collected from the different locations of India to obtain an empirical relation between P-wave velocity and uniaxial compressive strength, tensile strength, punch shear, density, slake durability index, Young’s modulus, Poisson’s ratio, impact strength index and Schmidt hammer rebound number. A very strong correlation was found between the P-wave velocity and different physico-mechanical properties of various rock types with very high coefficients of determination. To check the sensitivity of the empirical equations, Students t test was also performed, which confirmed the validity of the proposed correlations.

Modeling of the 2011 Japan Tsunami: Lessons for Near-Field Forecast

Abstract: During the devastating 11 March 2011 Japanese tsunami, data from two tsunami detectors were used to determine the tsunami source within 1.5 h of earthquake origin time. For the first time, multiple near-field tsunami measurements of the 2011 Japanese tsunami were used to demonstrate the accuracy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) real-time flooding forecast system in the far field. To test the accuracy of the same forecast system in the near field, a total of 11 numerical models with grids telescoped to 2 arcsec (~60 m) were developed to hindcast the propagation and coastal inundation of the 2011 Japanese tsunami along the entire east coastline of Japan. Using the NOAA tsunami source computed in near real-time, the model results of tsunami propagation are validated with tsunami time series measured at different water depths offshore and near shore along Japan’s coastline. The computed tsunami runup height and spatial distribution are highly consistent with post-tsunami survey data collected along the Japanese coastline. The computed inundation penetration also agrees well with survey data, giving a modeling accuracy of 85.5 % for the inundation areas along 800 km of coastline between Ibaraki Prefecture (north of Kashima) and Aomori Prefecture (south of Rokkasho). The inundation model results highlighted the variability of tsunami impact in response to different offshore bathymetry and flooded terrain. Comparison of tsunami sources inferred from different indirect methods shows the crucial importance of deep-ocean tsunami measurements for real-time tsunami forecasts. The agreement between model results and observations along Japan’s coastline demonstrate the ability and potential of NOAA’s methodology for real-time near-field tsunami flooding forecasts. An accurate tsunami flooding forecast within 30 min may now be possible using the NOAA forecast methodology with carefully placed tsunameters and large-scale high-resolution inundation models with powerful computing capabilities.

Seismic Site Classification and Correlation between Standard Penetration Test N Value and Shear Wave Velocity for Lucknow City in Indo-Gangetic Basin

Abstract: Subsurface lithology and seismic site classification of Lucknow urban center located in the central part of the Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) are presented based on detailed shallow subsurface investigations and borehole analysis. These are done by carrying out 47 seismic surface wave tests using multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) and 23 boreholes drilled up to 30 m with standard penetration test (SPT) N values. Subsurface lithology profiles drawn from the drilled boreholes show low- to medium-compressibility clay and silty to poorly graded sand available till depth of 30 m. In addition, deeper boreholes (depth >150 m) were collected from the Lucknow Jal Nigam (Water Corporation), Government of Uttar Pradesh to understand deeper subsoil stratification. Deeper boreholes in this paper refer to those with depth over 150 m. These reports show the presence of clay mix with sand and Kankar at some locations till a depth of 150 m, followed by layers of sand, clay, and Kankar up to 400 m. Based on the available details, shallow and deeper cross-sections through Lucknow are presented. Shear wave velocity (SWV) and N-SPT values were measured for the study area using MASW and SPT testing. Measured SWV and N-SPT values for the same locations were found to be comparable. These values were used to estimate 30 m average values of N-SPT (N 30) and SWV (V s 30 ) for seismic site classification of the study area as per the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) soil classification system. Based on the NEHRP classification, the entire study area is classified into site class C and D based on V s 30 and site class D and E based on N 30. The issue of larger amplification during future seismic events is highlighted for a major part of the study area which comes under site class D and E. Also, the mismatch of site classes based on N 30 and V s 30 raises the question of the suitability of the NEHRP classification system for the study region. Further, 17 sets of SPT and SWV data are used to develop a correlation between N-SPT and SWV. This represents a first attempt of seismic site classification and correlation between N-SPT and SWV in the Indo-Gangetic Basin.

Tsunami Source of the 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia Earthquake Inferred from Tsunami Field Survey and Waveform Modeling

Abstract: The 2010 Mentawai earthquake (magnitude 7.7) generated a destructive tsunami that caused more than 500 casualties in the Mentawai Islands, west of Sumatra, Indonesia. Seismological analyses indicate that this earthquake was an unusual “tsunami earthquake,” which produces much larger tsunamis than expected from the seismic magnitude. We carried out a field survey to measure tsunami heights and inundation distances, an inversion of tsunami waveforms to estimate the slip distribution on the fault, and inundation modeling to compare the measured and simulated tsunami heights. The measured tsunami heights at eight locations on the west coasts of North and South Pagai Island ranged from 2.5 to 9.3 m, but were mostly in the 4–7 m range. At three villages, the tsunami inundation extended more than 300 m. Interviews of local residents indicated that the earthquake ground shaking was less intense than during previous large earthquakes and did not cause any damage. Inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at nine coastal tide gauges, a nearby GPS buoy, and a DART station indicated a large slip (maximum 6.1 m) on a shallower part of the fault near the trench axis, a distribution similar to other tsunami earthquakes. The total seismic moment estimated from tsunami waveform inversion was 1.0 × 1021 Nm, which corresponded to Mw 7.9. Computed coastal tsunami heights from this tsunami source model using linear equations are similar to the measured tsunami heights. The inundation heights computed by using detailed bathymetry and topography data and nonlinear equations including inundation were smaller than the measured ones. This may have been partly due to the limited resolution and accuracy of publically available bathymetry and topography data. One-dimensional run-up computations using our surveyed topography profiles showed that the computed heights were roughly similar to the measured ones.

Slip Distribution and Seismic Moment of the 2010 and 1960 Chilean Earthquakes Inferred from Tsunami Waveforms and Coastal Geodetic Data

Abstract: The slip distribution and seismic moment of the 2010 and 1960 Chilean earthquakes were estimated from tsunami and coastal geodetic data. These two earthquakes generated transoceanic tsunamis, and the waveforms were recorded around the Pacific Ocean. In addition, coseismic coastal uplift and subsidence were measured around the source areas. For the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake, inversion of the tsunami waveforms recorded at nearby coastal tide gauge and Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) stations combined with coastal geodetic data suggest two asperities: a northern one beneath the coast of Constitucion and a southern one around the Arauco Peninsula. The total fault length is approximately 400 km with seismic moment of 1.7 × 1022 Nm (Mw 8.8). The offshore DART tsunami waveforms require fault slips beneath the coasts, but the exact locations are better estimated by coastal geodetic data. The 22 May 1960 earthquake produced very large, ~30 m, slip off Valdivia. Joint inversion of tsunami waveforms, at tide gauge stations in South America, with coastal geodetic and leveling data shows total fault length of ~800 km and seismic moment of 7.2 × 1022 Nm (Mw 9.2). The seismic moment estimated from tsunami or joint inversion is similar to previous estimates from geodetic data, but much smaller than the results from seismic data analysis.

The 11 March 2011 East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami: Tsunami Effects on Coastal Infrastructure and Buildings

Abstract: The 11 March 2011 East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami caused unprecedented damage to well-engineered buildings and coastal structures. This report presents some notable field observations of structural damage based on our surveys conducted along the Sanriku coast in April and June 2011. Engineered reinforced concrete buildings failed by rotation due to the high-velocity and deep tsunami inundation: entrapped air in the buildings and soil liquefaction by ground shaking could have contributed to the failure. The spatial distribution pattern of destroyed and survived buildings indicates that the strength of tsunami was affected significantly by the locations of well-engineered sturdy buildings: weaker buildings in the shadow zone tended to survive while jet and wake formations behind the sturdy buildings enhanced the tsunami forces. We also found that buildings with breakaway walls or breakaway windows/doors remained standing even if the surrounding buildings were washed away or destroyed. Several failure patterns of coastal structures (seawalls) were observed. Flow-induced suction pressure near the seawall crown could have caused the failure of concrete panels that covered the infill. Remarkable destruction of upright solid-concrete type seawalls was closely related with the tsunami induced scour and soil instability. The rapid decrease in inundation depth during the return-flow phase caused soil fluidization down to a substantial depth. This mechanism explains severely undermined roads and foundations observed in the area of low flow velocities.

Correlations Between Shear Wave Velocity and In-Situ Penetration Test Results for Korean Soil Deposits

Abstract: Shear wave velocity (V S) can be obtained using seismic tests, and is viewed as a fundamental geotechnical characteristic for seismic design and seismic performance evaluation in the field of earthquake engineering. To apply conventional geotechnical site investigation techniques to geotechnical earthquake engineering, standard penetration tests (SPT) and piezocone penetration tests (CPTu) were undertaken together with a variety of borehole seismic tests for a range of sites in Korea. Statistical modeling of the in-situ testing data identified correlations between V S and geotechnical in-situ penetration data, such as blow counts (N value) from SPT and CPTu data including tip resistance (q t), sleeve friction (f s), and pore pressure ratio (B q). Despite the difference in strain levels between conventional geotechnical penetration tests and borehole seismic tests, it is shown that the suggested correlations in this study is applicable to the preliminary determination of V S for soil deposits.

The 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake Tsunami: Similarities and Differences to the 869 Jogan Tsunami on the Sendai Plain

Abstract: A post-tsunami field survey following the 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake Tsunami was carried out to asses inundated area in Sendai Plain, Northeast Japan. The type of inundation was classified into two categories (major and minor) according to the amount of accumulated debris, garbage and sediment. Major and minor inundations were identified up to 4 and 5 km from the coastline, respectively. Many artificial geomorphological features, such as roadway embankments and canals, were believed to have affected the run-up process of the tsunami. The inundation area of the 2011 tsunami on the Sendai Plain is compared with that of the 869 Jogan tsunami, which was reconstructed using numerical modeling based on available historical and geological records. The inundation area of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami is comparable to that of the 869 Jogan tsunami, although a direct comparison is difficult due to differences in geomorphological contexts between the paleo period and the present.

Observations and Impacts from the 2010 Chilean and 2011 Japanese Tsunamis in California (USA)

Abstract: The coast of California was significantly impacted by two recent teletsunami events, one originating off the coast of Chile on February 27, 2010 and the other off Japan on March 11, 2011. These tsunamis caused extensive inundation and damage along the coast of their respective source regions. For the 2010 tsunami, the NOAA West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued a state-wide Tsunami Advisory based on forecasted tsunami amplitudes ranging from 0.18 to 1.43 m with the highest amplitudes predicted for central and southern California. For the 2011 tsunami, a Tsunami Warning was issued north of Point Conception and a Tsunami Advisory south of that location, with forecasted amplitudes ranging from 0.3 to 2.5 m, the highest expected for Crescent City. Because both teletsunamis arrived during low tide, the potential for significant inundation of dry land was greatly reduced during both events. However, both events created rapid water-level fluctuations and strong currents within harbors and along beaches, causing extensive damage in a number of harbors and challenging emergency managers in coastal jurisdictions. Field personnel were deployed prior to each tsunami to observe and measure physical effects at the coast. Post-event survey teams and questionnaires were used to gather information from both a physical effects and emergency response perspective. During the 2010 tsunami, a maximum tsunami amplitude of 1.2 m was observed at Pismo Beach, and over $3-million worth of damage to boats and docks occurred in nearly a dozen harbors, most significantly in Santa Cruz, Ventura, Mission Bay, and northern Shelter Island in San Diego Bay. During the 2011 tsunami, the maximum amplitude was measured at 2.47 m in Crescent City Harbor with over $50-million in damage to two dozen harbors. Those most significantly affected were Crescent City, Noyo River, Santa Cruz, Moss Landing, and southern Shelter Island. During both events, people on docks and near the ocean became at risk to injury with one fatality occurring during the 2011 tsunami at the mouth of the Klamath River. Evaluations of maximum forecasted tsunami amplitudes indicate that the average percent error was 38 and 28 % for the 2010 and 2011 events, respectively. Due to these recent events, the California tsunami program is developing products that will help: (1) the maritime community better understand tsunami hazards within their harbors, as well as if and where boats should go offshore to be safe, and (2) emergency managers develop evacuation plans for relatively small “Warning” level events where extensive evacuation is not required. Because tsunami-induced currents were responsible for most of the damage in these two events, modeled current velocity estimates should be incorporated into future forecast products from the warning centers.

DART® Tsunameter Retrospective and Real-Time Data: A Reflection on 10 Years of Processing in Support of Tsunami Research and Operations

Abstract: In the early 1980s, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory established the fundamentals of the contemporary tsunameter network deployed throughout the world oceans. The decades of technological and scientific advancements that followed led to a robust network that now provides real-time deep-ocean tsunami observations routinely incorporated into operational procedures of tsunami warning centers around the globe. All aspects of the network, from research to operations, to data archive and dissemination, are conducted collaboratively between the National Data Buoy Center, the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, and the National Geophysical Data Center, with oversight by the National Weather Service. The National Data Buoy Center manages and conducts all operational network activities and distributes real-time data to the public. The Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory provides the research component in support of modeling and network enhancements for improved forecasting capability. The National Geophysical Data Center is responsible for the processing, archiving, and distribution of all retrospective data and integrates DART® tsunameter data with the National Geophysical Data Center global historical tsunami database. The role each agency plays in collecting, processing, and disseminating observations of deep-ocean bottom pressure is presented along with brief descriptions of data processing procedures. Specific examples of challenges and the approaches taken to address these are discussed. National Geophysical Data Center newly developed and available tsunami event web pages are briefly described and demonstrated with processed data for both the Tohoku 11 March 2011 and the Haiti 12 January 2010 tsunami events.

Forecasting of Air Quality Index in Delhi Using Neural Network Based on Principal Component Analysis

Abstract: Forecasting of the air quality index (AQI) is one of the topics of air quality research today as it is useful to assess the effects of air pollutants on human health in urban areas. It has been learned in the last decade that airborne pollution has been a serious and will be a major problem in Delhi in the next few years. The air quality index is a number, based on the comprehensive effect of concentrations of major air pollutants, used by Government agencies to characterize the quality of the air at different locations, which is also used for local and regional air quality management in many metro cities of the world. Thus, the main objective of the present study is to forecast the daily AQI through a neural network based on principal component analysis (PCA). The AQI of criteria air pollutants has been forecasted using the previous day’s AQI and meteorological variables, which have been found to be nearly same for weekends and weekdays. The principal components of a neural network based on PCA (PCA-neural network) have been computed using a correlation matrix of input data. The evaluation of the PCA-neural network model has been made by comparing its results with the results of the neural network and observed values during 2000–2006 in four different seasons through statistical parameters, which reveal that the PCA-neural network is performing better than the neural network in all of the four seasons.

FDM Simulation of Seismic Waves, Ocean Acoustic Waves, and Tsunamis Based on Tsunami-Coupled Equations of Motion

Abstract: We have developed a new, unified modeling technique for the total simulation of seismic waves, ocean acoustic waves, and tsunamis resulting from earthquakes, based on a finite difference method simulation of the 3D equations of motion. Using the equilibrium between the pressure gradient and gravity in these equations, tsunami propagation is naturally incorporated in the simulation based on the equations of motion. The performance of the parallel computation for the newly developed tsunami-coupled equations using a domain partitioning procedure shows a high efficiency coefficient with a large number of CPU cores. The simulation results show how the near-field term associated with seismic waves produced by shallow earthquakes leads to a permanent coseismic deformation of the ground surface, which gives rise to the initial tsunami on the sea surface. Propagation of the tsunami along the sea surface as a gravity wave, and ocean acoustic waves in seawater with high-frequency multiple P-wave reflections between the free surface and sea bottom, are also clearly demonstrated by the present simulations. We find a good agreement in the tsunami waveform between our results and those obtained by other simulations based on an analytical model and the Navier–Stokes equations, demonstrating the effectiveness of the tsunami-coupling simulation model. Based on this simulation, we show that the ratio of the amplitude of ocean acoustic waves to the height of the tsunami, both of which are produced by the earthquake, strongly depends on the rise time of the earthquake rupture. This ratio can be used to obtain a more detailed understanding of the source rupture processes of subduction zone earthquakes, and for implementing an improved tsunami alert system for slow tsunami earthquakes.

Impacts of Urbanization and Station-relocation on Surface Air Temperature Series in Anhui Province, China

Abstract: Since the 1990s, many meteorological stations in China have passively “entered” cities, which has led to frequent relocation and discontinuity in observational records at many stations. To study the impacts of urbanization on surface air temperature series, 52 meteorological stations in Anhui Province were chosen based firstly on a homogeneity test of the time series, and then their surrounding underlying surfaces during different decades were identified utilizing Landsat Multispectral Scanner images from the 1970s, Landsat Thematic Mapper images from 1980s and 1990s, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper images after 2000, to determine whether or not the station “entered” city, and then these stations were categorized into three groups: urban, suburban, and rural using Landsat-measured land use/land cover (LULC) around the station. Finally, variations in annual mean air temperature (T mean), maximum air temperature (T max), and minimum air temperature (T min) were analyzed in urban-type stations and compared to their surrounding rural-type stations. The results showed that, in Anhui Province over the past two decades, many rural stations experienced urbanization and changed into urban or suburban locations. This process is referred as the “city-entering” phenomena of stations. Consequently, many of the latest stations were relocated and moved to currently rural and suburban areas, which significantly influenced the continuity of observational records and the homogeneity of long-term trends. Based on homogeneous data series, the averaged annual T mean, T max, and T min over Anhui Province increased at a rate of 0.407, 0.383 and 0.432 °C decade−1 from 1970 to 2008. The strongest effect of urbanization on annual T mean, T max, and T min trends occurred at urban stations, with corresponding contributions of 35.824, 14.286, and 45.161 % to total warming, respectively. This work provides convincing evidences that (1) urban expansion has important impacts on the evaluation of regional climate change, (2) high spatial resolution images of Landsat are very useful for selecting reference climate stations for evaluating the potential urban bias in the surface air temperature data in certain regions of the continents, and (3) meteorological observation adjustments of station-relocation-induced inhomogeneities are essential for the study of regional or global climate change.

Angular and Frequency-Dependent Wave Velocity and Attenuation in Fractured Porous Media

Abstract: Wave-induced fluid flow generates a dominant attenuation mechanism in porous media. It consists of energy loss due to P-wave conversion to Biot (diffusive) modes at mesoscopic-scale inhomogeneities. Fractured poroelastic media show significant attenuation and velocity dispersion due to this mechanism. The theory has first been developed for the symmetry axis of the equivalent transversely isotropic (TI) medium corresponding to a poroelastic medium containing planar fractures. In this work, we consider the theory for all propagation angles by obtaining the five complex and frequency-dependent stiffnesses of the equivalent TI medium as a function of frequency. We assume that the flow direction is perpendicular to the layering plane and is independent of the loading direction. As a consequence, the behaviour of the medium can be described by a single relaxation function. We first consider the limiting case of an open (highly permeable) fracture of negligible thickness. We then compute the associated wave velocities and quality factors as a function of the propagation direction (phase and ray angles) and frequency. The location of the relaxation peak depends on the distance between fractures (the mesoscopic distance), viscosity, permeability and fractures compliances. The flow induced by wave propagation affects the quasi-shear (qS) wave with levels of attenuation similar to those of the quasi-compressional (qP) wave. On the other hand, a general fracture can be modeled as a sequence of poroelastic layers, where one of the layers is very thin. Modeling fractures of different thickness filled with CO2 embedded in a background medium saturated with a stiffer fluid also shows considerable attenuation and velocity dispersion. If the fracture and background frames are the same, the equivalent medium is isotropic, but strong wave anisotropy occurs in the case of a frameless and highly permeable fracture material, for instance a suspension of solid particles in the fluid.

Waveform and Spectral Analyses of the 2011 Japan Tsunami Records on Tide Gauge and DART Stations Across the Pacific Ocean

Abstract: We studied the 11 March 2011 Tohoku tsunami through analysis of the sea level records from 21 tide gauge and 16 DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) stations from across the Pacific Ocean. The extreme power of this trans-oceanic tsunami was indicated by the trough-to-crest heights of 3.03 m at Arena Cove on the western coast of the USA and 3.94 m at Coquimbo on the southern coast of Chile. The average value of the maximum amplitude was 163.9 cm for the examined tide gauge records. At many coastal tide gauge stations the largest wave arrived several hours after the first arrival of the tsunami wave, and the tsunami lasted for a long time with an average duration of 4 days. On the contrary, at most of the DART stations in the deep ocean, the first wave was the largest, the tsunami amplitudes were smaller with an average maximum of 51.2 cm, and the durations were shorter with an average of 2 days. The two dominant tsunami periods on the DART records were 37 and 67.4 min, which are possibly attributed to the width and length of the tsunami source fault, respectively. The dimensions of the tsunami source was estimated as 233 km × 424 km. Wavelet analyses of tide gauge and DART records showed that most of the tsunami energy was distributed at the wide period band of around 10–80 min during the first hour after the tsunami arrival, then it was concentrated in a relatively narrower band. The frequency-time plots showed the switches and lapses of tsunami energy at the 35- and 65-min period bands.

Twin Tsunamis Triggered by the 12 January 2010 Haiti Earthquake

Abstract: On 12 January 2010, a magnitude M w 7.0 earthquake occurred 25 km west–southwest of Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince causing an estimated 316,000 fatalities, thereby exceeding any previous loss of life from a similar size earthquake. In addition, tsunami waves triggered by the earthquake caused at least three fatalities at Petit Paradis due to a complete lack of tsunami awareness. The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) was deployed within weeks of the event and covered the greater Bay of Port-au-Prince and more than 100 km of Hispaniola’s southern coastline. The collected survey data include more than 21 tsunami heights along with observations of coastal land level change. Maximum tsunami heights of 3 m have been measured for two independently triggered tsunamis.

Monitoring Seismo-volcanic and Infrasonic Signals at Volcanoes: Mt. Etna Case Study

Abstract: Volcanoes generate a broad range of seismo-volcanic and infrasonic signals, whose features and variations are often closely related to volcanic activity. The study of these signals is hence very useful in the monitoring and investigation of volcano dynamics. The analysis of seismo-volcanic and infrasonic signals requires specifically developed techniques due to their unique characteristics, which are generally quite distinct compared with tectonic and volcano-tectonic earthquakes. In this work, we describe analysis methods used to detect and locate seismo-volcanic and infrasonic signals at Mt. Etna. Volcanic tremor sources are located using a method based on spatial seismic amplitude distribution, assuming propagation in a homogeneous medium. The tremor source is found by calculating the goodness of the linear regression fit (R 2) of the log-linearized equation of the seismic amplitude decay with distance. The location method for long-period events is based on the joint computation of semblance and R 2 values, and the location method of very long-period events is based on the application of radial semblance. Infrasonic events and tremor are located by semblance–brightness- and semblance-based methods, respectively. The techniques described here can also be applied to other volcanoes and do not require particular network geometries (such as arrays) but rather simple sparse networks. Using the source locations of all the considered signals, we were able to reconstruct the shallow plumbing system (above sea level) during 2011.

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku Tsunami Survey in Rikuzentakata and Comparison with Historical Events

Abstract: On 11 March 2011, a moment magnitude M w = 9.0 earthquake occurred off the Japan Tohoku coast causing catastrophic damage and loss of human lives. In the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, we conducted the reconnaissance survey in the city of Rikuzentakata, Japan. In comparison with three previous historical tsunamis impacting the same region, the 2011 event presented the largest values with respect to the tsunami height, the inundation area and the inundation distance. A representative tsunami height of 15 m was recorded in Rikuzentakata, with increased heights of 20 m around rocky headlands. In terms of the inundation area, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami exceeded by almost 2.6 times the area flooded by the 1960 Chilean tsunami, which ranks second among the four events compared. The maximum tsunami inundation distance was 8.1 km along the Kesen River, exceeding the 1933 Showa and 1960 Chilean tsunami inundations by factors of 6.2 and 2.7, respectively. The overland tsunami inundation distance was less than 2 km. The tsunami inundation height linearly decreased along the Kesen River at a rate of approximately 1 m/km. Nevertheless, the measured inland tsunami heights exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. A designated “tsunami control forest” planted with a cross-shore width of about 200 m along a 2 km stretch of Rikuzentakata coastline was completely overrun and failed to protect the local community during this extreme event. Similarly, many designated tsunami shelters were too low and were overwashed by tsunami waves, thereby failing to provide shelter for evacuees—a risk that had been underestimated.

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Temperature: An Analysis Based on RegCM3 Simulations

Abstract: Regional climate models are important tools to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall and temperature at high resolutions. Such information has potential applications in sectors like agriculture and health. In this study, the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) has been integrated in the ensemble mode at 55 km resolution over India for the summer monsoon season during the years 1982–2009. Emphasis has been given on the validation of the model simulation at the regional level. In Central India, both rainfall and temperature show the best correlations with respective observed values. The model gives rise to large wet biases over Northwest and Peninsular India. RegCM3 slightly underestimates the summer monsoon precipitation over the Central and Northeast India. Nevertheless, over these regions, RegCM3 simulated rainfall is closer to the observations when compared to the other regions where rainfall is overestimated. The position of the monsoon trough simulated by the model lies to the north of its original observed position. This is similar to the usual monsoon break conditions leading to less rainfall over Central India. RegCM3 simulated surface maximum temperature shows a large negative bias over the country while the surface minimum temperature is close to the observation. Nevertheless, there is a strong correlation between the all India weighted average surface temperature simulated by RegCM3 and IMD observed values. While examining the extreme weather conditions in Central India, it is found that RegCM3 simulated frequencies of occurrence of very wet days, extremely wet days, warm days and warm nights more often as compared to those in IMD observed values. However, these are systematic biases. The model biases in the frequencies of distribution of rainfall extremes explain the wet and dry biases in different regions in the country. Overall, the inter-annual characteristics of both the rainfall and temperature extremes simulated by RegCM3 in Central India are well in phase with those found in the observed data.

The 2010 Chilean Tsunami Off the West Coast of Canada and the Northwest Coast of the United States

Abstract: The major (M w = 8.8) Chilean earthquake of 27 February 2010 generated a trans-oceanic tsunami that was observed throughout the Pacific Ocean. Waves associated with this event had features similar to those of the 1960 tsunami generated in the same region by the Great (M w = 9.5) 1960 Chilean Earthquake. Both tsunamis were clearly observed on the coast of British Columbia. The 1960 tsunami was measured by 17 analog pen-and-paper tide gauges, while the 2010 tsunami was measured by 11 modern digital coastal tide gauges, four NEPTUNE-Canada bottom pressure recorders located offshore from southern Vancouver Island, and two nearby open-ocean DART stations. The 2010 records were augmented by data from seven NOAA tide gauges on the coast of Washington State. This study examines the principal characteristics of the waves from the 2010 event (height, period, duration, and arrival and travel times) and compares these properties for the west coast of Canada with corresponding properties of the 1960 tsunami. Results show that the 2010 waves were approximately 3.5 times smaller than the 1960 waves and reached the British Columbia coast 1 h earlier. The maximum 2010 wave heights were observed at Port Alberni (98.4 cm) and Winter Harbour (68.3 cm); the observed periods ranged from 12 min at Port Hardy to 110–120 min at Prince Rupert and Port Alberni and 150 min at Bamfield. The open-ocean records had maximum wave heights of 6–11 cm and typical periods of 7 and 15 min. Coastal and open-ocean tsunami records revealed persistent oscillations that “rang” for 3–4 days. Tsunami energy occupied a broad band of periods from 3 to 300 min. Estimation of the inverse celerity vectors from cross-correlation analysis of the deep-sea tsunami records shows that the tsunami waves underwent refraction as they approached the coast of Vancouver Island with the direction of the incoming waves changing from an initial direction of 340° True to a direction of 15° True for the second train of waves that arrived 7 h later after possible reflection from the Marquesas and Hawaiian islands.

Co-Seismic Groundwater Level Changes Induced by the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake in the Near Field

Abstract: The large scales of co-seismic water level changes in mainland China were observed in response to the tragic 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. To better understand the mechanism of these hydrogeological phenomena, groundwater-level data at 17 confined wells, with an epicentral distance of <500 km, were collected. We compare the static strain predicted by dislocation theory with the volumetric strain calculated by the tide effect of the groundwater based on poroelastic theory. The results show that the sign of the co-seismic groundwater level change is consistent with the sign predicted by dislocation theory. Additionally, the magnitude of the strain calculated by the two methods is also concordant in half of the wells. In the rest of the wells, the strains inversed from the groundwater level are one or two orders of magnitude larger than the fault dislocation model. These wells mostly have an epicenter distance larger than 300 km; therefore, the dynamic stress induced by the seismic wave may be responsible for the co-seismic water level changes in these wells. According to these results, we roughly estimate that the effect range of the static stress is approximately 300 km for the Wenchuan earthquake, and the dynamic stresses dominate beyond this epicenter distance. In addition, geological and hydrogeological conditions and other mechanisms may be responsible for these changes.

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to Geoelectric and Geologic Parameters for Spatial Prediction of Groundwater Resources Potential and Aquifer Evaluation

Abstract: Prediction of groundwater resources potential is a spatial decision problem that involves a set of multiple evaluation parameters. In order to produce a groundwater resources potential prediction model of higher reliability and precision in a given study area, the effects of all the important parameters that can contribute to the groundwater occurrence in the area must be integrated. However, the methodology of integrating these parameters such that the relative importance of each is reflected is still a challenge that has not been efficiently handled. In this study, the principle of multi-criteria decision analysis in the context of the analytical hierarchy process is proposed as a technique that can yield a prediction model of higher reliability and precision. The proposed technique was applied to geoelectric and geologic parameters, derived from the results of the interpretation of 2D resistivity imaging data acquired from the study area. The advantage of the proposed technique is that it reduces bias in decision making. The main objective of the study is to produce groundwater potential map for the area. Furthermore, an attempt was also made in the study to characterize the aquifer of the area by estimating the Dar-Zarrouk parameters, using the integration of borehole and 2D resistivity data. The success rate (accuracy) of the prediction was established to be 80 %. Furthermore, the regression line fitted to the aquifer transmissivity and transverse resistance data shows linear relationship with a high regression coefficient of 0.79. The prediction success rate obtained showed that the method proposed in this study is reliable, accurate, and an improved technique of integrating multiple parameters for holistic evaluation of groundwater resources.

The Effect of Varying Damage History in Crystalline Rocks on the P- and S-Wave Velocity under Hydrostatic Confining Pressure

Abstract: Cracks play a very important role in many geotechnical issues and in a number of processes in the Earth’s crust. Elastic waves can be used as a remote sensing tool for determining crack density. The effect of varying crack density in crystalline rock on the P- and S-wave velocity and dynamic elastic properties under confining pressure has been quantified. The evolution of P- and S-wave velocity were monitored as a suite of dry Westerly granite samples were taken to 60, 70, 80 and 90 % of the unconfined uniaxial strength of the sample. The damaged samples were then subjected to hydrostatic confining pressure from 2 MPa to 200 MPa to quantify the effect of varying crack density on the P- and S-wave velocity and elastic properties under confining pressure. The opening and propagation of microcracks predominantly parallel to the loading direction during uniaxial loading caused a 0.5 and 6.3 % decrease in the P- and S-wave velocity, respectively. During hydrostatic loading, microcracks are closed at 130 MPa confining pressure. At lower pressures the amount of crack damage in the samples has a small but measureable effect. We observed a systematic 6 and 4 % reduction in P- and S-wave velocity, respectively, due to an increase in the fracture density at 2 MPa confining pressure. The overall reduction in the P- and S-wave velocity decreased to 2 and 1 %, respectively, at 50 MPa. The elastic wave velocities of samples that have a greater amount of microcrack damage are more sensitive to pressure. Effective medium modelling was used to invert elastic wave velocities and infer crack density evolution. Comparing the crack density results with experimental data on Westerly granite samples shows that the effective medium modelling used gave interpretable and reasonable results. Changes in crack density can be interpreted as closure or opening of cracks and crack growth.

Curie Point Depth Estimates from Aeromagnetic Data from Death Valley and Surrounding Regions, California

Abstract: Aeromagnetic data were analyzed to determine the Curie point depth (CPD) by power density spectral and three-dimensional inversion methods within and surrounding Death Valley in southern California. We calculated the CPD for 0.5° regions using 2D power density spectral methods and found that the CPDs varied between 8 and 17 km. However, the 0.5° region may average areas that include shallow and deep CPDs, and because of this limitation, we used the 3D inversion method to determine if this method may provide better resolution of the CPDs. The final 3D model indicates that the depth to the bottom of the magnetic susceptible bodies varies between 5 and 23 km. Even though both methods produced roughly similar results, the 3D inversion method produced a higher lateral resolution of the CPDs. The shallowest CPDs occur within the central and southern Death Valley, Panamint Valley, Coso geothermal field and the Tecopa hot springs region. Deeper (>15 km) CPDs occur over outcropping granitic and Precambrian lithologies in the Panamint Range, Grapevine Mountains, Black Mountains and the Argus Range. The shallowest CPD occurs within the central Death Valley over a possible seismically imaged magma body and slightly deeper values occur within the Panamint Valley, southern Death Valley and Tecopa Hot Springs. The shallow CPD values suggest that partially molten material may also be found in these latter regions. The CPD computed heat flow values for the region suggest that the entire area has high heat flow values (>100 mW m−2), on the other hand, locally extremely high values (>200 mW m−2) occur within the Panamint Valley, the southern and central Death Valley and Tecopa Hot Springs region. These locally high heat flow values may be related to midcrustal magma bodies; but additional geophysical experiments are needed to determine if the magma bodies exist.

Japan's 2011 Tsunami: Characteristics of Wave Propagation from Observations and Numerical Modelling

Abstract: We use a numerical tsunami model to describe wave energy decay and transformation in the Pacific Ocean during the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. The numerical model was initialised with the results from a seismological finite fault model and validated using deep-ocean bottom pressure records from DARTs, from the NEPTUNE-Canada cabled observatory, as well as data from four satellite altimetry passes. We used statistical analysis of the available observations collected during the Japan 2011 tsunami and of the corresponding numerical model to demonstrate that the temporal evolution of tsunami wave energy in the Pacific Ocean leads to the wave energy equipartition law. Similar equipartition laws are well known for wave multi-scattering processes in seismology, electromagnetism and acoustics. We also show that the long-term near-equilibrium state is governed by this law: after the passage of the tsunami front, the tsunami wave energy density tends to be inversely proportional to the water depth. This fact leads to a definition of tsunami wave intensity that is simply energy density times the depth. This wave intensity fills the Pacific Ocean basin uniformly, except for the areas of energy sinks in the Southern Ocean and Bering Sea.

Comparison of the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan Tsunamis in the Far Field

Abstract: In this study we analyze water level data from coastal tide gauges and deep-ocean tsunameters to explore the far-field characteristics of two major trans-Pacific tsunamis, the 2010 Chile and the 2011 Japan (Tohoku-oki) events. We focused our attention on data recorded in California (14 stations) and New Zealand (31 stations) as well as on tsunameters situated along the tsunami path and proximal to the study sites. Our analysis considers statistical analyses of the time series to determine arrival times of the tsunami as well as the timing of the largest waves and the highest absolute sea levels. Fourier and wavelet analysis were used to describe the spectral content of the tsunami signal. These characteristics were then compared between the two events to highlight similarities and differences between the signals as a function of the receiving environment and the tsunami source. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of far-field tsunami characteristics in the Pacific Ocean, which has not experienced a major tsunami in nearly 50 years. As such, it systematically describes the tsunami response characteristics of modern maritime infrastructure in New Zealand and California and will be of value for future tsunami hazard assessments in both countries.

Dynamic Development of Hydrofracture

Abstract: Many natural examples of complex joint and vein networks in layered sedimentary rocks are hydrofractures that form by a combination of pore fluid overpressure and tectonic stresses. In this paper, a two-dimensional hybrid hydro-mechanical formulation is proposed to model the dynamic development of natural hydrofractures. The numerical scheme combines a discrete element model (DEM) framework that represents a porous solid medium with a supplementary Darcy based pore-pressure diffusion as continuum description for the fluid. This combination yields a porosity controlled coupling between an evolving fracture network and the associated hydraulic field. The model is tested on some basic cases of hydro-driven fracturing commonly found in nature, e.g., fracturing due to local fluid overpressure in rocks subjected to hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic tectonic loadings. In our models we find that seepage forces created by hydraulic pressure gradients together with poroelastic feedback upon discrete fracturing play a significant role in subsurface rock deformation. These forces manipulate the growth and geometry of hydrofractures in addition to tectonic stresses and the mechanical properties of the porous rocks. Our results show characteristic failure patterns that reflect different tectonic and lithological conditions and are qualitatively consistent with existing analogue and numerical studies as well as field observations. The applied scheme is numerically efficient, can be applied at various scales and is computational cost effective with the least involvement of sophisticated mathematical computation of hydrodynamic flow between the solid grains.

A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part I: Propagation Modelling and Tsunami Hazard Assessment at the Shoreline

Abstract: Regional source tsunamis represent a potentially devastating threat to coastal communities in New Zealand, yet are infrequent events for which little historical information is available. It is therefore essential to develop robust methods for quantitatively estimating the hazards posed, so that effective mitigation measures can be implemented. We develop a probabilistic model for the tsunami hazard posed to the Auckland region of New Zealand from the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench subduction zones. An innovative feature of our model is the systematic analysis of uncertainty regarding the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in the source regions. The methodology is first used to estimate the tsunami hazard at the coastline, and then used to produce a set of scenarios that can be applied to produce probabilistic maps of tsunami inundation for the study region; the production of these maps is described in part II. We find that the 2,500 year return period regional source tsunami hazard for the densely populated east coast of Auckland is dominated by events originating in the Kermadec Trench, while the equivalent hazard to the sparsely populated west coast is approximately equally due to events on the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench.