Showing papers in "Regional Environmental Change in 2017"

Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions

Abstract: The repercussions of climate change will be felt in various ways throughout both natural and human systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change projections for this region point to a warming trend, particularly in the inland subtropics; frequent occurrence of extreme heat events; increasing aridity; and changes in rainfall—with a particularly pronounced decline in southern Africa and an increase in East Africa. The region could also experience as much as one meter of sea-level rise by the end of this century under a 4 °C warming scenario. Sub-Saharan Africa’s already high rates of undernutrition and infectious disease can be expected to increase compared to a scenario without climate change. Particularly vulnerable to these climatic changes are the rainfed agricultural systems on which the livelihoods of a large proportion of the region’s population currently depend. As agricultural livelihoods become more precarious, the rate of rural–urban migration may be expected to grow, adding to the already significant urbanization trend in the region. The movement of people into informal settlements may expose them to a variety of risks different but no less serious than those faced in their place of origin, including outbreaks of infectious disease, flash flooding and food price increases. Impacts across sectors are likely to amplify the overall effect but remain little understood.

Reducing meat consumption in developed and transition countries to counter climate change and biodiversity loss: a review of influence factors

Abstract: A dietary shift towards reduced meat consumption is an efficient strategy for countering biodiversity loss and climate change in regions (developed and transition countries) where consumption is already at a very high level or is rapidly expanding (such as China). Biodiversity is being degraded and lost to a considerable extent, with 70 % of the world’s deforestation a result of stripping in order to grow animal feed. Furthermore, about 14.5 % of the world’s anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are calculated to be the result of (mainly industrial) livestock farming. The research reviewed here focuses on the feasibility of reducing meat consumption in developed and transition countries, as this would—among other positive effects—reduce the global loss of biodiversity, the need for unsustainable agricultural practices and GHG emissions. This article reviews the barriers, opportunities and steps that need to be taken in order to encourage the consumption of less meat, based on an interdisciplinary and multifactor approach. The evidence is gathered from a systematic meta-analysis of factors (including personal, sociocultural and external factors) that influence individual meat-eating behaviour. The most relevant factors that influence behaviour appear to be emotions and cognitive dissonance (between knowledge, conflicting values and actual behaviour) and sociocultural factors (e.g. social norms or social identity). For different factors and groups of people, different strategies are appropriate. For example, for men and older people deploying the health argument or arguing for flexitarianism (reduced meat consumption) may prove the most promising approaches, while providing emotional messages or promoting new social norms is recommended in order to address barriers such as cognitive dissonance.

Social Vulnerability to Climate Change: A review of concepts and evidence

Abstract: This article provides a review of recent scientific literature on social vulnerability to climate change, aiming to determine which social and demographic groups, across a wide range of geographical locations, are the most vulnerable to climate change impacts within four well-being dimensions: health, safety, food security, and displacement. We analyze how vulnerability changes over time and ask whether there is evidence of critical thresholds beyond which social vulnerability drastically changes. The review finds that climate change is expected to exacerbate current vulnerabilities and inequalities. The findings confirm concerns about climate justice, especially its intergenerational dimensions. For example, deficiencies in early childhood may limit future educational and income generation opportunities. Evidence of clear thresholds is rare and is mainly related to the vulnerability of different age groups, household income level, and the impacts of different degrees of global warming.

Native forest loss in the Chilean biodiversity hotspot: revealing the evidence

Abstract: The understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns in land use and land cover (LULC) change is a key issue for conservation efforts. In the Chilean hotspot, different studies have attempted to understand variations of LULC change. Nevertheless, a broader understanding of common patterns and variability of LULC over the entire range of the hotspot is lacking. We performed a complete review of the different studies reporting LULC changes and performed a joint analysis of their results using an integrated comprehensive approach. We related the variation of LULC change to latitude, time period and vascular plant richness using generalized linear models. Overall, there were nine studies, which covered 36.5 % of the study area, and reported the loss of 19 % of native forest (782,120 ha) between 1973 and 2011. The highest net forest loss was observed in the 1970–1990 period. This decreased in the 1990–2000 period and rose again in the 2000–2010 period. This result reveals a continuous forest loss in the last 40 years. Conversion of native forest to shrublands is the most important contributor to net native forest loss, accounting for 45 % of the loss. However, in the area of greatest species richness native forests are mainly converted to exotic tree plantations. Chilean forestry model has proved successful in expanding exotic tree plantation, but so far it has not been compatible with native forest conservation and restoration. It is imperative to design a new forestry policy to assure the conservation of one of the most unique biodiversity hotspots worldwide.

‘Subjective resilience’: using perceptions to quantify household resilience to climate extremes and disasters

Abstract: How should we measure a household’s resilience to climate extremes, climate change or other evolving threats? As resilience gathers momentum on the international stage, interest in this question continues to grow. So far, efforts to measure resilience have largely focused on the use of ‘objective’ frameworks and methods of indicator selection. These typically depend on a range of observable socio-economic variables, such as levels of income, the extent of a household’s social capital or its access to social safety nets. Yet while objective methods have their uses, they suffer from well-documented weaknesses. This paper advocates for the use of an alternative but complementary method: the measurement of ‘subjective’ resilience at the household level. The concept of subjective resilience stems from the premise that people have an understanding of the factors that contribute to their ability to anticipate, buffer and adapt to disturbance and change. Subjective household resilience therefore relates to an individual’s cognitive and affective self-evaluation of their household’s capabilities and capacities in responding to risk. We discuss the advantages and limitations of measuring subjective household resilience and highlight its relationships with other concepts such as perceived adaptive capacity, subjective well-being and psychological resilience. We then put forward different options for the design and delivery of survey questions on subjective household resilience. While the approach we describe is focused at the household level, we show how it has the potential to be aggregated to inform sub-national or national resilience metrics and indicators. Lastly, we highlight how subjective methods of resilience assessment could be used to improve policy and decision-making. Above all, we argue that, alongside traditional objective measures and indicators, efforts to measure resilience should take into account subjective aspects of household resilience in order to ensure a more holistic understanding of resilience to climate extremes and disasters.

Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups

Abstract: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region emerges as one of the hot spots for worsening extreme heat, drought and aridity conditions under climate change. A synthesis of peer-reviewed literature from 2010 to date and own modeling work on biophysical impacts of climate change on selected sectors shows that the region is highly affected by present and future climate change. These biophysical impacts paired with other pressures and a lack of resilience in some countries cause high vulnerabilities within these sectors and for social dimensions in the MENA region. The agricultural sector, of which 70 percent is rain-fed, is highly exposed to changing climatic conditions. This is of critical importance as the agriculture sector is the largest employer in many Arab countries and contributes significantly to national economies. Impacts will be high in a 2 °C world, as, e.g., annual water discharge, already critically low, is projected to drop by another 15–45% (75% in a 4 °C world) and unusual heat extremes projected to affect about one-third of the land area with likely consequences for local food production. As a consequence, deteriorating rural livelihoods associated with declining agricultural productivity will continue to contribute to migration flows, often to urban areas as already observed. The region could be heavily challenged by both rising food and water demand given its projected increase in population that may double by 2070. As a result, the regions already substantial import dependency could increase and thus its vulnerability to agricultural impacts well beyond its country borders. A severe and sustained pressure on resources could contribute to further social unrest in the already unstable political environment that currently characterizes parts of the region. While the particular societal responses to such changes are hard to foresee, it is clear that extreme impacts would constitute unprecedented challenges to the social systems affected.

The specific vulnerability of plant biodiversity and vegetation on Mediterranean islands in the face of global change

Abstract: The numerous Mediterranean islands (>10,000) are very important from a biodiversity point of view, both in term of plant species (numerous endemics, presence of ‘climate relicts’) and of ecosystems’ assemblage. These patterns can be explained by complex interactions between a highly heterogeneous historical biogeography and ecological processes related to diverse island conditions. Furthermore, most of the ups and downs of this biodiversity were closely linked with human pressures which have changed many times through the long socio-ecological history of these island landscapes since the Neolithic period. At present, insular plant biodiversity and rural landscapes are threatened by diverse global environmental changes related to urbanization, habitat fragmentation, unsustainable tourism and other practices (e.g. overgrazing, forest fires), and by other more recent drivers such as climate warming and aridification, sea-level rise and biological invasions. Some of these impacts will be exacerbated on islands because of no (or highly limited) adjacent areas of expansion, notably on the smallest ones (i.e. size < ca. 1000 ha). With regards to the biome crisis facing the Mediterranean basin and induced by human activities, islands constitute key ecological systems and ‘current refugia’ to ensure the long-term preservation of coastal plant biodiversity. They also represent fascinating ecological systems to disentangle the role of environmental versus human pressures on spatially simplified communities of the Mediterranean coastal areas. Future detailed studies of these ‘natural island microcosms’ could greatly improve our knowledge of the functional and evolutionary processes induced by rapid environmental changes in this region.

Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development

Abstract: This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under different levels of global warming in Central Asia. Projections show mean temperatures increasing by up to 6.5 °C compared to pre-industrial by the end of this century across the region. Associated physical impacts include altered precipitation regimes, more frequent heat extremes and increasing aridity. Increasing rates of glacial and snow melt could lead to greater river runoff, but also to greater seasonality of runoff in the short term and to decreasing water availability in the medium term to long term. These changes have negative implications for the water availability in the region and for conflicting water demands between agriculture and hydropower. Climate change could mostly decrease crop yields, challenging food security, but in more northern regions there could also be positive effects. Studies on climate change impacts on energy systems are scarce and yield conflicting results, but the more regional study shows decreasing prospects for hydropower. The health of the population is already sensitive to heat extremes and is projected to be exposed to more frequent and prolonged heat waves in the future, among other potential health impacts. While the evidence for a link between climate and migration is weak, the rural-to-urban migration can be especially expected to intensify. The paper concludes that Central Asia will be severely affected by climate change even if the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, due to the potential for impacts to occur simultaneously and compound one another as well as interactions with wider development challenges, while risks will be strongly amplified if this threshold is crossed.

Integrated spatial assessment of the water, energy and food dimensions of the sustainable development goals.

Abstract: Water is considered the bloodstream of the biosphere, but its management is one of the most important challenges for human development. In view of the sustainable water management, several approaches have been proposed: Integrated Water Resources Management, Adaptive Management and, more recently, Water–Energy–Food (WEF) Nexus. Considering these approaches, over the last few decades, extensive efforts have been made to develop assessment methods and tools framed within the paradigm of sustainable development. As part of a holistic assessment of water resources, the recent approach based upon the WEF Nexus narrows down the consideration of intersectoral linkages to three dimensions that are of prominent interest, in particular in developing countries. This study presents a comprehensive indicator-based approach for the assessment of water, energy and food securities, with reference to the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. The main ambition of the proposed approach is to provide a tool to monitor progresses, compare different geographical areas, highlight synergies and conflicts amongst and within the three dimensions of the WEF Nexus, and provide support for improved—more effective—management strategies to meet the goals. The proposed approach is demonstrated in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) River Basin in Asia and to the Po River Basin in Europe. The comparative analysis suggests that WEF security is currently rather low in the GBM basin compared to the other case study and other parts of the world and allows the identification of which dimensions (indicators) require special attention on the part of local and global policy makers.

Climate change adaptation: factors influencing Chinese smallholder farmers’ perceived self-efficacy and adaptation intent

Abstract: Understanding how individuals perceive their ability to adapt to climate change is critical to understanding adaptation decision-making. Drawing on a survey of 483 smallholder farmer households in the Loess Plateau region of China, we examine the factors that shape smallholder farmer perceptions of their ability to adapt to climate change and their stated intent to do so. We apply a proportional odds ordered logistic regression model to identify the role that determinants of adaptive capacity play in shaping smallholders’ perceived self-efficacy and adaptation intent. Our study provides further evidence that self-efficacy beliefs are a strong, positive predictor of adaptation intent. Our study suggests that human capital, information and technology, material resources and infrastructure, wealth and financial capital, and institutions and entitlements all play an important role in shaping smallholder perceived self-efficacy, while state-society dependencies may reduce smallholder perceived self-efficacy. In addition, our study suggests that perceiving climate change risks and impacts do not necessarily lead to an intention to adapt. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating both the objective determinants of smallholders’ adaptive capacity and their subjective perceptions of these objective determinants into future climate change adaptation programs and policies in order to facilitate adaptive actions. Identifying factors that cause individuals to have a low estimation of their adaptive ability may allow planned adaptation interventions to address these perceived limitations and encourage adaptive behavior.

Environmental change and social conflict: the northeast Atlantic mackerel dispute

Abstract: A recurrent critique of the proposition of a causal relation between environmental change and social conflict is that it fails to account for the complexities and dynamics of processes of social-ecological change. In this article, we open the black box of contextual factors that influence the causal pathway from environmental change to social conflict. Firstly, we argue for the consideration of three social factors that influence that pathway: (a) institutions, (b) power, and (c) knowledge. Taking a deductive approach, we ascertain their causal importance in the case of the “mackerel dispute,” an interstate conflict that unfolded after the abrupt and rapid change in distribution of the northeast Atlantic mackerel stock after 2007. We analyze the historical development of the mackerel dispute through process tracing and demonstrate the importance and causal role of the three factors. Secondly, based on our assessment, we argue to increase the diversity of the scope conditions relevant for the environmental change-social conflict nexus. We propose to consider a wider variety of conflicts as outcome of environmental change, high-income regions as an arena for those conflicts, and a wider variety of environmental change, such as alterations in abundance in the context of climate change. Lastly, we discuss how future research on this topic can handle the wider scope conditions and greater case variability.

Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development

Abstract: This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under different levels of global warming in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Projections show increasing mean temperatures by up to 4.5 °C compared to pre-industrial by the end of this century across LAC. Associated physical impacts include altered precipitation regimes, a strong increase in heat extremes, higher risks of droughts and increasing aridity. Moreover, the mean intensity of tropical cyclones, as well as the frequency of the most intense storms, is projected to increase while sea levels are expected to rise by ~0.2–1.1 mm depending on warming level and region. Tropical glacier volume is found to decrease substantially, with almost complete deglaciation under high warming levels. The much larger glaciers in the southern Andes are less sensitive to warming and shrink on slower timescales. Runoff is projected to be reduced in Central America, the southern Amazon basin and southernmost South America, while river discharge may increase in the western Amazon basin and in the Andes in the wet season. However, in many regions, there is uncertainty in the direction of these changes as a result of uncertain precipitation projections and differences in hydrological models. Climate change will also reduce agricultural yields, livestock and fisheries, although there may be opportunities such as increasing rice yield in several LAC countries or higher fish catch potential in the southernmost South American waters. Species range shifts threaten terrestrial biodiversity, and there is a substantial risk of Amazon rainforest degradation with continuing warming. Coral reefs are at increasing risk of annual bleaching events from 2040 to 2050 onwards irrespective of the climate scenario. These physical and biophysical climate change impacts challenge human livelihoods through, e.g., decreasing income from fisheries, agriculture or tourism. Furthermore, there is evidence that human health, coastal infrastructures and energy systems are also negatively affected. This paper concludes that LAC will be severely affected by climate change, even under lower levels of warming, due to the potential for impacts to occur simultaneously and compound one another.

A social–ecological perspective on harmonizing food security and biodiversity conservation

Abstract: The major challenges of improving food security and biodiversity conservation are intricately linked. To date, the intersection of food security and biodiversity conservation has been viewed primarily through an agricultural "production lens"-for example, via the land sparing/sharing framework, or the concept of sustainable intensification. However, a productionist perspective has been criticized for being too narrow, and failing to consider other relevant factors, including policy, equity, and diversity. We propose an approach that conceptualizes rural landscapes as social-ecological systems embedded within intersecting multi-scalar processes. Based on such a framing, empirical research can be more clearly set in the context of system properties that may influence food security, biodiversity conservation, or both. We illustrate our approach through a description of contrasting agricultural systems within Brazil's Cerrado region. We emphasize the need for new empirical research involving systematic comparisons of social-ecological system properties in landscapes threatened by food insecurity and ecosystem degradation.

Addressing future trade-offs between biodiversity and cropland expansion to improve food security

Abstract: Potential trade-offs between providing sufficient food for a growing human population in the future and sustaining ecosystems and their services are driven by various biophysical and socio-economic parameters at different scales. In this study, we investigate these trade-offs by using a three-step interdisciplinary approach. We examine (1) how the expected global cropland expansion might affect food security in terms of agricultural production and prices, (2) where natural conditions are suitable for cropland expansion under changing climate conditions, and (3) whether this potential conversion to cropland would affect areas of high biodiversity value or conservation importance. Our results show that on the one hand, allowing the expansion of cropland generally results in an improved food security not only in regions where crop production rises, but also in net importing countries such as India and China. On the other hand, the estimated cropland expansion could take place in many highly biodiverse regions, pointing out the need for spatially detailed and context-specific assessments to understand the possible outcomes of different food security strategies. Our multidisciplinary approach is relevant with respect to the Sustainable Development Goals for implementing and enforcing sustainable pathways for increasing agricultural production, and ensuring food security while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services.

International financing for climate change adaptation in small island developing states

Abstract: Small island developing states (SIDS) are among the most vulnerable in the world to the impacts of climate change. SIDS have prioritised adaptation to climate change as it is widely accepted that some climate change is inevitable. Given the high cost of adaptation and the financial constraints faced by SIDS, many have pursued international adaptation financing to meet adaptation costs and ease domestic constraints. This paper analyses international adaptation financing commitments to SIDS across multiple regions between 2010 and 2014. It has three aims. First, it identifies trends in this financing from Members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development to SIDS. Second, using a multivariate regression model, it identifies the determinants of this financing to SIDS, compared to other developing countries. Third, it elicits the perspectives of policy-makers in SIDS on their experience with international adaptation financing to date. This study finds that (1) the allocation of funding and donor commitments to SIDS is highly skewed, (2) whether a country is classified as a SIDS is a determinant of the amount of adaptation financing it can expect to receive—other determinants include population, per capita income, governance quality and vulnerability, depending on how it is conceptualised and measured, and (3) SIDS are dissatisfied with the current levels of international adaptation financing and their experience with accessing it. This paper concludes that, while international adaptation flows have not been sufficient, SIDS have not been disadvantaged in their access to such financing over the period, compared to other developing countries.

Developing drought resilience in irrigated agriculture in the face of increasing water scarcity

Abstract: In many countries, drought is the natural hazard that causes the greatest agronomic impacts. After recurrent droughts, farmers typically learn from experience and implement changes in management to reduce their future drought risks and impacts. This paper aims to understand how irrigated agriculture in a humid climate has been affected by past droughts and how different actors have adapted their activities and strategies over time to increase their resilience. After examining recent drought episodes from an agroclimatic perspective, information from an online survey was combined with evidence from semi-structured interviews with farmers to assess: drought risk perceptions, impacts of past drought events, management strategies at different scales (regional to farm level) and responses to future risks. Interviews with the water regulatory agency were also conducted to explore their attitudes and decision-making processes during drought events. The results highlight how agricultural drought management strategies evolve over time, including how specific aspects have helped to reduce future drought risks. The importance of adopting a vertically integrated drought management approach in the farming sector coupled with a better understanding of past drought impacts and management options is shown to be crucial for improving decision-making during future drought events.

The future is behind us: traditional ecological knowledge and resilience over time on Hawai‘i Island

Abstract: Local and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) systems are thought to be particularly valuable for fostering adaptation and resilience to environmental and climate change. This paper investigates the role of TEK in adaptation to social–ecological change at the community level. It is unique because it takes a longitudinal perspective and draws on historical and contemporary data. We focus on a case study from Hawai‘i where TEK, cultural identity, and their relationships to environmental stewardship are locally seen as the basis for social resilience. We describe how coping strategies and indicators of social resilience have changed over time; the role of TEK in resilience; and the implications for climate change adaptation. Our results show the relative contributions of some strategies to cope with social–ecological change have decreased (e.g., forecasting, storage, and mobility), while others have maintained but adapted (e.g., livelihood diversification, knowledge transmission and storage, communal pooling, and cultural identity), underscoring the importance of considering multiple strategies together to promote community resilience. The article argues that understanding how people responded in the past can suggest relevant and culturally appropriate ways—through specific language, values, reference points, and indicators expressed in narratives, proverbs, and songs—of situating climate change and framing adaptation planning. This research also shows that TEK is vital for adaptation to environmental change broadly and climate change in particular, for subsistence-based, indigenous, rural communities, as well as place-based communities living in mixed economies. Thus, it is relevant for the larger Pacific Islands region and other areas that represent a continuum from rural-to-urban and traditional-to-global economies and lifeways.

The ‘Pacific Adaptive Capacity Analysis Framework’: guiding the assessment of adaptive capacity in Pacific island communities

Abstract: Community-based adaptation (CBA) is becoming an increasingly popular approach to climate change adaptation in the Pacific islands region. Building adaptive capacity should be an important component of projects supporting CBA. The literature establishes that adaptive capacity is highly context and culture specific. However, to date, there has been little research into the factors and processes that enable adaptive capacity in Pacific island communities. This paper discusses the Pacific Adaptive Capacity Analysis Framework, a theoretical framework developed to guide assessment of adaptive capacity for the purposes of supporting CBA projects. The framework identifies seven broad factors and several sub-factors of Pacific-specific adaptive capacity: (1) human capital; (2) social capital; (3) belief systems, worldviews, and values; (4) resources and their distribution; (5) options for adaptation, livelihood, and food supply; (6) information and awareness; and (7) history of dealing with climate stress. The paper presents a case study of adaptive capacity from a community in the Solomon Islands and concludes that unlike many adaptive capacity determinants identified in the broader international literature, function-based (factors shaping ability to access and use resources) and cognitive (for example, values and belief systems) determinants are of particular relevance in the Pacific community social and cultural context. The key to building upon cognitive and function-based aspects of adaptive capacity is increasing the ability of people to liaise with external support organisations to plan and acquire resources for adaptation on their own terms.

Nitrogen use efficiencies in Chinese agricultural systems and implications for food security and environmental protection

Abstract: Nitrogen (N) use efficiency (NUE) is an important indicator to evaluate the performance of N use in agricultural systems. Understanding changes in NUE is crucial to improve N management and reduce harmful environmental impacts. Here we analyzed the historical changes in NUE in three agricultural subsystems in China: cropland, confined livestock feedlot and grassland with grazing animals, as well as their impacts on food security and the environments using the mass balance approach. The NUE in croplands increased from 40% in 1980 to 45% in 1984 and then decreased to 36% in 2003, after which it rebound to 39% in 2010, explained by the interaction of socioeconomic development and natural factors. The livestock and grazing/grassland subsystems saw continuous improvement of NUE from 6 to 16 and 1 to 5%, respectively, associated with the increase in average livestock farm size and related technological innovations and livestock specie changes between 1980 and 2010. The low agricultural NUE has resulted in the loss of 18.4–44.8 Tg N year−1 to the atmosphere or hydrosphere, or accumulation in the soil as reactive N in Chinese agriculture systems between 1980 and 2010. Despite the large amount of N used and lost during food production, the overall protein self-sufficiency ratio decreased from over 90% in the 1980s to 79% in 2010. Future agricultural development in China faces multiple challenges on increasing the productivity and reducing the N loss, for which increasing the NUE in all three agricultural subsystems should be a priority.

Social and cultural issues raised by climate change in Pacific Island countries: an overview

Abstract: Climate-related disasters such as tropical cyclones, floods and droughts are not new to Pacific Islanders, who have developed customary or ‘traditional’ practices to enable communities to adapt and recover from such hazards. Some of these practices have been degraded and some assisted by modernisation. Through their effects on the island environment, these hazards have a range of socio-economic impacts on food (fisheries and crops) and water supply, tourism, and coastal buildings and infrastructure. The varied impacts of climate change not only exacerbate those hazards but also raise new threats, such as sea level rise and ocean acidification, that have no precedent in the past 500 years, and for which there are therefore no traditional adaptations, although Pacific innate ingenuity and resilience remains strong. These issues are particularly acute for the low-lying atoll countries whose continued existence is threatened by sea level rise, but also affect those that live on higher islands in coastal settlements, where most of their population is concentrated. Climate change thus sharpens social and cultural issues of equity (reflecting disparities in location, income, education, gender, health and age), made even more acute by increased levels of voluntary or forced migration within, and even more so beyond, island country boundaries. Consequently, many islanders see climate change as a moral challenge to the richer countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions that are causing the problem.

The intersection of food security and biodiversity conservation: a review

Abstract: Food security and biodiversity conservation are key challenges of the twenty-first century. While traditionally these two challenges were addressed separately, recently, papers have begun to specifically address the nexus of food security and biodiversity conservation. We conducted a structured literature review of 91 papers addressing this nexus. To ascertain how a given paper approached the topic, we assessed to what extent it covered 68 potentially relevant issues. The resulting dataset was analyzed using cluster analysis. Two main branches of literature, containing a total of six clusters of papers, were identified. The “biophysical-technical” branch (clusters: “sustainable intensification” and “production focus”) was dominated by the natural sciences, focused strongly on the production aspect of food security, and sought general solutions. In contrast, the “social-political” branch (clusters: “social-ecological development”; “empowerment for food security”; “agroecology and food sovereignty”; and “social-ecological systems”) often drew on the social sciences and emphasized social relations and governance, alongside broader considerations of sustainability and human well-being. While the biophysical-technical branch was often global in focus, much of the social-political branch focused on specific localities. Two clusters of papers, one from each branch, stood out as being particularly broad in scope—namely the clusters on “sustainable intensification” and “agroecology and food sovereignty.” Despite major differences in their conceptual basis, we argue that exchange between these two research clusters could be particularly helpful in generating insights on the food–biodiversity nexus that are both generally applicable and sufficiently nuanced to capture key system-specific variables.

Variation of the hydrological regime of Bele-Shira closed basin in Southern Siberia and its reflection in the radial growth of Larix sibirica

Abstract: This study analyses dynamics of the hydrological regime of Bele-Shira closed basin and evaluates the potential for using radial growth of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) for its assessment. We investigated the relationships between different characteristics of the water level variation of Lake Shira, precipitation amount and long-term regional chronologies developed from 56 living trees and 32 dead trees on three sites across this basin. Graphical and correlation analysis indicate that the interannual change (June minus previous June) of the water level of Lake Shira is strongly positively related to the annual sum of precipitation from July to June and the radial growth of larch. It was shown that this hydrological characteristic integrates the current dynamics of the regional precipitation and moisture regime as a whole of the Bele-Shira closed basin on interannual and decadal scales. The water level of Lake Shira fluctuates on a multi-year timescale in synchrony with the cumulative sum of the tree-ring chronology and also has strong positive long-term trend, probably driven by the continual groundwater inflow from neighboring Lake Itkul. Delayed relationships of precipitation and radial growth with the Lake Shira level change are interpreted with reference to a water balance model of the closed basin. Results offer the possibility of reconstructing interannual and decadal variation of the hydrological regime during the last few centuries through regression models using tree-ring chronologies or the dynamics of climatic variables recovered from them.

Historical trajectories in land use pattern and grassland ecosystem services in two European alpine landscapes.

Abstract: Land use and spatial patterns which reflect social-ecological legacies control ecosystem service (ES) supply. Yet, temporal changes in ES bundles associated with land use change are little studied. We developed original metrics to quantify synchronous historical variations in spatial patterns of land use and ES supply capacity, and demonstrated their use for two mountain grassland landscapes. Consistent with other European mountains, land use dynamics from the nineteenth century until the mid-twentieth century resulted in increased landscape heterogeneity, followed by homogenisation. In the persistently grassy landscape of Lautaret in France, landscape multifunctionality—the provision of multiple ES—coincided with greatest landscape heterogeneity and within-patch diversity in ecosystem services in the 1950–1970s. In the more complex Austrian landscape, where since the nineteenth century intensive production has concentrated in the valley and steep slopes have been abandoned, grassland landscape-level multifunctionality and spatial heterogeneity across grasslands have decreased. Increasing spatial heterogeneity across grasslands until the 1970s was paralleled at both sites by increasing fine-grained spatial variability for individual ES, but subsequent landscape simplification has promoted coarse-grained ES patterns This novel analysis of landscape-scale turnover highlighted how spatial patterns for individual ES scale to multiple grassland ES, depending on the nature of land use spatial variability. Under current socio-economic trends, sustaining or re-establishing fine-grained landscapes is often not feasible, thus future landscape planning and policies might focus on managing landscape and regional-scale multifunctionality. Also, the trends towards decreasing cultural ES and increasing regulating ES suggest a contradiction with current social demand and regional policies.

The Selenga River delta : a geochemical barrier protecting Lake Baikal waters

Abstract: The protection of Lake Baikal and the planning of water management measures in the Selenga River Basin require a comprehensive understanding of the current state and functioning of the delta’s ecosystem and hydrogeochemical processes. This is particularly relevant in light of recent and expected future changes involving both the hydrology and water quality in the Lake Baikal basin causing spatiotemporal changes in water flow, morphology, and transport of sediments and metals in the Selenga River delta and thus impacting on delta barrier functions. The central part of the delta had been characterized by sediment storage, especially along the main channels, causing a continuous lift of the delta surface by about 0.75 cm/year−1. Theses morphological changes have a significant impact on hydrological conditions, with historical shifts in the bulk discharge from the left to the right parts of the delta which is distinguished by a relatively high density of wetlands. Regions with a high density of wetlands and small channels, in contrast to main channel regions, show a consistent pattern of considerable contaminant filtering and removal (between 77 and 99 % for key metals), during both high-flow and low-flow conditions. The removal is associated with a significant concentration increase (2–3 times) of these substances in the bottom sediment. In consequence, geomorphological processes, which govern the partitioning of flow between different channel systems, may therefore directly govern the barrier function of the delta.

Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia : extremes of water scarcity and excess

Abstract: This paper reviews the current knowledge of climatic risks and impacts in South Asia associated with anthropogenic warming levels of 1.5–4 °C above pre-industrial values in the twenty-first century. It is based on the World Bank Report “Turn Down the Heat, Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience” (2013b) . Many of the climate change impacts in the region, which appear quite severe even with relatively modest warming of 1.5–2 °C, pose significant hazards to development. For example, increased monsoon variability and loss or glacial meltwater will likely confront populations with ongoing and multiple challenges. The result is a significant risk to stable and reliable water resources for the region, with increases in peak flows potentially causing floods and dry season flow reductions threatening agriculture. Irrespective of the anticipated economic development and growth, climate projections indicate that large parts of South Asia’s growing population and especially the poor are likely to remain highly vulnerable to climate change.

Protein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050

Abstract: Multiple production and demand side measures are needed to improve food system sustainability. This study quantified the theoretical minimum agricultural land requirements to supply Western Europe with food in 2050 from its own land base, together with GHG emissions arising. Assuming that crop yield gaps in agriculture are closed, livestock production efficiencies increased and waste at all stages reduced, a range of food consumption scenarios were modelled each based on different ‘protein futures’. The scenarios were as follows: intensive and efficient livestock production using today’s species mix; intensive efficient poultry–dairy production; intensive efficient aquaculture–dairy; artificial meat and dairy; livestock on ‘ecological leftovers’ (livestock reared only on land unsuited to cropping, agricultural residues and food waste, with consumption capped at that level of availability); and a ‘plant-based eating’ scenario. For each scenario, ‘projected diet’ and ‘healthy diet’ variants were modelled. Finally, we quantified the theoretical maximum carbon sequestration potential from afforestation of spared agricultural land. Results indicate that land use could be cut by 14–86 % and GHG emissions reduced by up to approximately 90 %. The yearly carbon storage potential arising from spared agricultural land ranged from 90 to 700 Mt CO2 in 2050. The artificial meat and plant-based scenarios achieved the greatest land use and GHG reductions and the greatest carbon sequestration potential. The ‘ecological leftover’ scenario required the least cropland as compared with the other meat-containing scenarios, but all available pasture was used, and GHG emissions were higher if meat consumption was not capped at healthy levels.

Using land use/land cover trajectories to uncover ecosystem service patterns across the Alps.

Abstract: Managing multiple ecosystem services (ES) in agricultural landscapes is a challenging task, especially in regions with complex topographical and agro-ecological conditions. These challenges require ES assessment approaches that go beyond the case study level and provide multi-temporal information at a transnational level. We used a spatiotemporal approach to examine the impact of specific land use/land cover (LULC) trajectories on eight ES for the past 150 years. We show how a spatially explicit ES upscaling procedure, from case study to an Alpine-wide level, based on topographical, agro-ecological and socioeconomic parameters, can improve our understanding of ES dynamics and bundles. Our results indicated that the provision of multiple ES was not stable during the 150 years surveyed, mainly depending on the prevailing land management type and the biophysical conditions. ES bundle mapping enabled us to identify landscapes with consistent socioecological characteristics that are most likely to either enhance or diminish the provision of specific types of services. By introducing a spatiotemporal perspective into ES assessment, we provide clear evidence of the dynamic nature of ES provision and contribute to identifying processes and drivers behind these interactions. Our results emphasize that mountain ES supply is particularly sensitive to long-term LULC change, to biophysical characteristics and to regional socioeconomic conditions. They indicate the benefit of integrating of ES bundles into environmental policies at national and transnational level.

Climate change mitigation and productivity gains in livestock supply chains: insights from regional case studies

Abstract: Livestock can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and by increasing soil carbon sequestration. Packages of mitigation techniques can bring large environmental benefits as illustrated in six case studies modeled in the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model developed by FAO. With feasible technical interventions in livestock production systems, the mitigation potential of each of the selected species, systems and regions ranges from 14 to 41 %. While comparably high mitigation potentials were estimated for ruminant and pig production systems in Asia, Latin America and Africa, large emission reductions can also be attained in dairy systems with already high levels of productivity, in OECD countries. Mitigation interventions can lead to a concomitant reduction in emissions and increase in production, contributing to food security. This is particularly the case for improved feeding practices and better health and herd management practices. Livestock systems also have a significant potential for sequestrating carbon in pasturelands and rangelands through improved management, as illustrated in two of the six case studies in this paper.

Perceived stressors of climate vulnerability across scales in the Savannah zone of Ghana: a participatory approach

Abstract: Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are confronted with climatic and non-climatic stressors. Research attention has focused on climatic stressors, such as rainfall variability, with few empirical studies exploring non-climatic stressors and how these interact with climatic stressors at multiple scales to affect food security and livelihoods. This focus on climatic factors restricts understanding of the combinations of stressors that exacerbate the vulnerability of farming households and hampers the development of holistic climate change adaptation policies. This study addresses this particular research gap by adopting a multi-scale approach to understand how climatic and non-climatic stressors vary, and interact, across three spatial scales (household, community and district levels) to influence livelihood vulnerability of smallholder farming households in the Savannah zone of northern Ghana. This study across three case study villages utilises a series of participatory tools including semi-structured interviews, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. The incidence, importance, severity and overall risk indices for stressors are calculated at the household, community, and district levels. Results show that climatic and non-climatic stressors were perceived differently; yet, there were a number of common stressors including lack of money, high cost of farm inputs, erratic rainfall, cattle destruction of crops, limited access to markets and lack of agricultural equipment that crossed all scales. Results indicate that the gender of respondents influenced the perception and severity assessment of stressors on rural livelihoods at the community level. Findings suggest a mismatch between local and district level priorities that have implications for policy and development of agricultural and related livelihoods in rural communities. Ghana’s climate change adaptation policies need to take a more holistic approach that integrates both climatic and non-climatic factors to ensure policy coherence between national climate adaptation plans and District development plans.

Culturally grounded responses to coastal change on islands in the Federated States of Micronesia, northwest Pacific Ocean

Abstract: The characterization of Pacific Islands as especially vulnerable to climate change often undervalues the cultural resilience of their inhabitants. On many Micronesian islands, coastal stone-built structures are the most visible type of tangible cultural resilience and have endured for perhaps 1000 years or more. A distinction is recognized between older structures, likely built in response to sea-level rise during the Medieval Warm Period (AD 750–1250), and more recent structures that likely took advantage of the lowered sea level during the Little Ice Age (AD 1350–1800). Detailed studies of Micronesian responses to recent coastal change were undertaken in the islands of Yap (Proper). The positioning and maintenance of coastal men’s houses (faluw) reflect either pragmatic responses to unmanageable coastal change or a cultural determination to resist this. The long history of traditional responses to climate variability and coastal change for terrestrial food production on Yap is also discussed. Future adaptation pathways on Yap and other higher islands in Micronesia need to combine scientific knowledge of climate change with traditional responses to historical change, including the stonework tradition and the cultural determination to resist undesired coastal change.