Showing papers in "Reliability Engineering & System Safety in 2012"

TL;DR: Generic metrics and formulae for quantifying system resilience are proposed that are generic enough to be implemented in a variety of applications as long as appropriate figures-of-merit and the necessary system parameters, system decomposition and component parameters are defined.

TL;DR: Over the last 15–20 years the authors have seen a shift from rather narrow perspectives based on probabilities to ways of thinking which highlight events, consequences and uncertainties, however, some of the more narrow perspectives are still strongly influencing the risk field, although arguments can be provided against their use.

TL;DR: The key idea is to align the complexity level and order of analysis with the reliability and detail level of statistical information on the input parameters to avoid the necessity to assign parametric probability distributions that are not sufficiently supported by limited available data.

TL;DR: This work is focused on using bow-tie model approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes, and uses Bayes’ theorem to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which results in an updated risk profile.

TL;DR: A set of variance-based sensitivity indices are proposed to perform sensitivity analysis of models with dependent inputs and allow us to distinguish between the mutual dependent contribution and the independent contribution of an input to the model response variance.

TL;DR: Changing course in an encounter situation is the most influential variable in the model, followed by variables such as the Officer of the Watch's action, situation assessment, danger detection, personal condition and incapacitation.

TL;DR: This paper reviews the recent advances in delay-time-based maintenance modelling, which is one of the mathematical techniques for optimising inspection planning and related problems.

TL;DR: A topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project.

TL;DR: Prediction of fatigue reliability of welded multi-planar tubular joints of the support structure of a fixed jacket offshore wind turbine designed for a northern North Sea site in a water depth of 70 m is performed.

TL;DR: The proposed multi-state Markov model was used to calculate important reliability indices such as the Forced Outage Rate, the Expected Energy Not Supplied to consumers, etc and it was shown that these indices are sensibly different from those calculated for a long-term range.

TL;DR: A review of a 15 QRAs from the North Sea reveals that the analyses to a large extent only to calculate the frequency of blowout based on the number of drilling operations.

TL;DR: This paper proposes an analytical multi-state modeling approach for the reliability assessment of distributed generation (DG), which allows looking to a number of diverse energy generation technologies distributed on the system.

TL;DR: The results show that the DDMR control system has a little higher reliability than TMR system, and the component failure rates of Ethernet switch, programmable logic controller and personal computer (PC) and PC should be reduced for DDMR system.

TL;DR: A hierarchical set of PIFs that can be used for both qualitative and quantitative HRA is introduced that will allow analysts to combine different types of data and will therefore make the best use of the limited data in HRA.

TL;DR: A mechanical damage model was developed and validated by available literature data on past accidents, and the tank vulnerability model was integrated in a comprehensive approach for the quantitative risk assessment of NaTech scenarios triggered by floods.

TL;DR: A second-generation Multiple-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA), named NSGA-II, is presented to find the best solution for the given problem and demonstrates the ability to identify a set of optimal solutions (Pareto front), which provides the Decision Maker (DM) with a complete picture of the optimal solution space.

TL;DR: The distribution is found to be superior to the existing sub models on being fitted to two real data sets and the non-linear equations for deriving the maximum likelihood estimators and the elements of the observed information matrix are presented.

TL;DR: Cumulative prospect theory is utilized to investigate the role and characteristics of risk-aversion in assurance of structural safety and the phenomenon of risk aversion may be a significant factor in decisions for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability events with severe consequences.

TL;DR: The case study results highlight the need for cross-sector analyses by showing that the total estimated societal costs are substantially higher when cascading effects and consequences to other infrastructures are taken into account compared to only considering the costs of electricity interruptions as seen by the network company.

TL;DR: An integrated lot-sizing and preventive maintenance strategy of the system that will minimize the sum of preventive and corrective maintenance costs, setup costs, holding costs, backorder costs and production costs, while satisfying the demand for all products over the entire horizon is determined.

TL;DR: The proposed method is based on the total probability law, conditional probabilities and an efficient recursive formula to compute the overall mission reliability with the consideration of imperfect fault coverage and has no limitation on the type of time-to-failure distributions for the system components.

TL;DR: The quantification of occupational risk of a building construction project and workers installing timber formworks have the highest fatality risk, followed by the workers installing reinforcement, which is based on a set of 63 bowties.

TL;DR: The methodology presented in the paper consists of a family-based approach for the equipment reliability analysis, which builds the reliability model of the railway system for identifying the most critical items, given a required service level for the transportation system.

TL;DR: This work shows how to use an efficient conversion from the interpolating polynomial provided by evaluations on a sparse grid to a representation in terms of orthogonal polynomials (gPC representation) to estimate several types of sensitivity coefficients and to provide estimates on local minima and maxima.

TL;DR: This study investigates and quantifies the contribution of maintenance, both in terms of frequency and severity, to passenger airline risk by analyzing three different sources of data from 1999 to 2008 and develops an aviation maintenance risk scorecard that collects these metrics to synthesize a comprehensive track record.

TL;DR: The analysis of an electrical transmission system with the objective of identifying its most critical elements with respect to failures and attacks is carried out, based on graph-theoretical (topological) network analysis.

TL;DR: The statistical analysis represents that not only the proposed efficient epsilon-constraint method outperform the multi-start partial bound enumeration algorithm but also it improves the founded upper bound of benchmark instance.

TL;DR: It is argued that system accident literacy and safety competence should be an essential part of the intellectual toolkit of all engineering students, and one model for an introductory course on accident causation and system safety is offered.

TL;DR: A dynamic opportunistic preventive maintenance model is developed for a multi-component system with considering changes in job shop schedule and is more efficient than the ones based on two other commonly used preventive maintenance models.

TL;DR: Model checking is put forward, a computer-aided formal method for verifying the correctness of a system design model, as a promising approach to system verification in the nuclear domain.