Showing papers in "Research Papers in Economics in 2018"

Abstract: Surface irrigation is a common pool resource characterized by asymmetric appropriation opportunities across upstream and downstream water users. Large canal systems are also predominantly managed by the state. This paper studies water allocation under an irrigation bureaucracy subject to corruption and rent-seeking. Data on the landholdings and political influence of nearly quarter million irrigators in Pakistan’s vast Indus Basin watershed allow the construction of a novel index of lobbying power. Consistent with a model of misgovernance, the decline in water availability and land values from channel head to tail is accentuated along canals having greater lobbying power at the head than at the tail.

Abstract: We summarize a framework for the study of the implications of automation and AI on the demand for labor, wages, and employment. Our task-based framework emphasizes the displacement effect that automation creates as machines and AI replace labor in tasks that it used to perform. This displacement effect tends to reduce the demand for labor and wages. But it is counteracted by a productivity effect, resulting from the cost savings generated by automation, which increase the demand for labor in non-automated tasks. The productivity effect is complemented by additional capital accumulation and the deepening of automation (improvements of existing machinery), both of which further increase the demand for labor. These countervailing effects are incomplete. Even when they are strong, automation in- creases output per worker more than wages and reduce the share of labor in national income. The more powerful countervailing force against automation is the creation of new labor-intensive tasks, which reinstates labor in new activities and tends to in- crease the labor share to counterbalance the impact of automation. Our framework also highlights the constraints and imperfections that slow down the adjustment of the economy and the labor market to automation and weaken the resulting produc- tivity gains from this transformation: a mismatch between the skill requirements of new technologies, and the possibility that automation is being introduced at an excessive rate, possibly at the expense of other productivity-enhancing technologies.

Abstract: Recent research on the microfoundations of corporate social responsibility (CSR) has highlighted the need for improved measures to evaluate how stakeholders perceive and subsequently react to CSR initiatives. Drawing on stakeholder theory and data from five samples of employees (N = 3,772), the authors develop and validate a new measure of corporate stakeholder responsibility (CStR), which refers to an organization's context-specific actions and policies designed to enhance the welfare of various stakeholder groups by accounting for the triple bottom line of economic, social, and environmental performance; it is conceptualized as a superordinate, multidimensional construct. Results from exploratory factor analyses, first- and second-order confirmatory factor analyses, and structural equation modeling provide strong evidence of the convergent, discriminant, incremental, and criterion-related validities of the proposed CStR scale. Two-wave longitudinal studies further extend prior theory by demonstrating that the higher-order CStR construct relates positively and directly to organizational pride and perceived organizational support, as well as positively and indirectly to organizational identification, job satisfaction, and affective commitment, beyond the contribution of overall organizational justice, ethical climate, and prior measures of perceived CSR.

Abstract: Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and the central bank's assessment of the economic outlook. This paper disentangles these two components and studies their effect on the economy using a structural vector autoregression estimated on both US and euro area data. It relies on the information inherent in high-frequency comovement of interest rates and stock prices around policy announcements: a surprise policy tightening raises interest rates and reduces stock prices, while the complementary positive central bank information shock raises both. These two shocks have intuitive and very different effects on the economy. Ignoring the central bank information shocks biases the inference on monetary policy non-neutrality. We make this point formally and offer an interpretation of the central bank information shock using a New Keynesian macroeconomic model with financial frictions.

Abstract: This paper provides an assessment of the early contributions of machine learning to economics, as well as predictions about its future contributions. It begins by briefly overviewing some themes from the literature on machine learning, and then draws some contrasts with traditional approaches to estimating the impact of counterfactual policies in economics. Next, we review some of the initial “off-the-shelf” applications of machine learning to economics, including applications in analyzing text and images. We then describe new types of questions that have been posed surrounding the application of machine learning to policy problems, including “prediction policy problems,” as well as considerations of fairness and manipulability. We present some highlights from the emerging econometric literature combining machine learning and causal inference. Finally, we overview a set of broader predictions about the future impact of machine learning on economics, including its impacts on the nature of collaboration, funding, research tools, and research questions.

Abstract: Throughout scientific research, measured time series are the basis for characterizing an observed system and for predicting its future behavior. A number of new techniques (such as state-space reconstruction and neural networks) promise insights that traditional approaches to these very old problems cannot provide. In practice, however, the application of such new techniques has been hampered by the unreliability of their results and by the difficulty of relating their performance to those of mature algorithms. This chapter reports on a competition run through the Santa Fe Institute in which participants from a range of relevant disciplines applied a variety of time series analysis tools to a small group of common data sets in order to help make meaningful comparisons among their approaches. The design and the results of this competiton are described, and the historical and theoretical backgrounds necessary to understand the successful entries are reviewed.

Abstract: A large literature exploits geographic variation in the concentration of immigrants to identify their impact on a variety of outcomes. To address the endogeneity of immigrants' location choices, the most commonly-used instrument interacts national inflows by country of origin with immigrants' past geographic distribution. We present evidence that estimates based on this "shift-share" instrument conflate the short- and long-run responses to immigration shocks. If the spatial distribution of immigrant inflows is stable over time, the instrument is likely to be correlated with ongoing responses to previous supply shocks. Estimates based on the conventional shift-share instrument are therefore unlikely to identify the short-run causal effect. We propose a "multiple instrumentation" procedure that isolates the spatial variation arising from changes in the country-of-origin composition at the national level and permits us to estimate separately the short- and long-run effects. Our results are a cautionary tale for a large body of empirical work, not just on immigration, that rely on shift-share instruments for causal inference.

Abstract: This study focuses on the risk of automation and its interaction with training and the use of skills at work. Building on the expert assessment carried out by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne in 2013, the paper estimates the risk of automation for individual jobs based on the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC). The analysis improves on other international estimates of the individual risk of automation by using a more disaggregated occupational classification and identifying the same automation bottlenecks emerging from the experts’ discussion. Hence, it more closely aligns to the initial assessment of the potential automation deriving from the development of Machine Learning. Furthermore, this study investigates the same methodology using national data from Germany and United Kingdom, providing insights into the robustness of the results. The risk of automation is estimated for the 32 OECD countries that have participated in the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) so far. Beyond the share of jobs likely to be significantly disrupted by automation of production and services, the accent is put on characteristics of these jobs and the characteristics of the workers who hold them. The risk is also assessed against the use of ICT at work and the role of training in helping workers transit to new career opportunities.

Abstract: We analyze conceptually and in an empirical counterpart the relationship between economic growth, factor inputs, institutions, and entrepreneurship. In particular, we investigate whether entrepreneurship and institutions, in combination in an ecosystem, can be viewed as a “missing link” in an aggregate production function analysis of cross-country differences in economic growth. To do this, we build on the concept of National Systems of Entrepreneurship (NSE) as resource allocation systems that combine institutions and human agency into an interdependent system of complementarities. We explore the empirical relevance of these ideas using data from a representative global survey and institutional sources for 46 countries over the period 2002–2011. We find support for the role of the entrepreneurial ecosystem in economic growth

Abstract: We present a monthly indicator of geopolitical risk based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions, and examine its evolution and effects since 1985. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the Gulf War, after 9/11, during the 2003 Iraq invasion, during the 2014 Russia-Ukraine crisis, and after the Paris terrorist attacks. High geopolitical risk leads to a decline in real activity, lower stock returns, and movements in capital flows away from emerging economies and towards advanced economies. When we decompose the index into threats and acts components, the adverse effects of geopolitical risk are mostly driven by the threat of adverse geopolitical events. Extending our index back to 1900, geopolitical risk rose dramatically during the World War I and World War II, was elevated in the early 1980s, and has drifted upward since the beginning of the 21st century.

Abstract: This paper empirically examines the inter-linkages between energy consumption and economic growth in top ten energy-consuming countries i.e. China, the USA, Russia, India, Japan, Canada, Germany, Brazil, France and South Korea. We use the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach of Sim and Zhou (2015) to explore some nuanced features of the energy-growth nexus and to capture the relationship in its entirety. The results show a positive association between economic growth and energy consumption, with considerable variations across economic states in each country. A weak effect of economic growth on energy consumption is noted for the lower quantiles of economic growth in China, India, Germany and France, which suggests that energy as an input has less importance at low levels of economic growth. A weak effect of economic growth on energy consumption is also noted for the highest quantiles of income in the United States, Canada, Brazil and South Korea, which indicates that energy demand decreases with the increase in economic growth as these countries have become more energy efficient. The weakest effect of energy consumption on economic growth is observed at lower quantiles of energy consumption in China, Japan, Brazil and South Korea. The results of the present study can help in the design of energy development and conservation policies for sustainable and long-term economic development.

Abstract: This chapter aims to provide an exhaustive list of all (i.e. 90) correspondence studies on hiring discrimination that were conducted between 2005 and 2016 (and could be found through a systematic search). For all these studies, the direction of the estimated treatment effects is tabulated. In addition, a discussion of the findings by discrimination ground is provided.

Abstract: The reversal interest rate is the rate at which accommodative monetary policy reverses and becomes contractionary for lending. Its determinants are 1) banks' fixed-income holdings, 2) the strictness of capital constraints, 3) the degree of pass-through to deposit rates, and 4) the initial capitalization of banks. Quantitative easing increases the reversal interest rate and should only be employed after interest rate cuts are exhausted. Over time the reversal interest rate creeps up since asset revaluation fades out as fixed-income holdings mature while net interest income stays low. We calibrate a New Keynesian model that embeds our banking frictions.

Abstract: An exciting development in empirical macroeconometrics is the increasing use of external sources of as-if randomness to identify the dynamic causal effects of macroeconomic shocks. This approach – the use of external instruments – is the time series counterpart of the highly successful strategy in microeconometrics of using external as-if randomness to provide instruments that identify causal effects. This lecture exposits this approach and provides conditions on instruments and control variables under which external instrument methods produce valid inference on dynamic causal effects, that is, structural impulse response functions. These conditions can help guide the search for valid instruments in applications. We consider two methods, a one-step instrumental variables regression and a two-step method that entails estimation of a vector autoregression. Under a restrictive instrument validity condition, the onestep method is valid even if the vector autoregression is not invertible, so comparing the two estimates provides a test of invertibility. Under a less restrictive condition, where multiple lagged endogenous variables are needed as control variables in the one-step method, the conditions for validity of the two methods are the same.

Abstract: We design and conduct large-scale surveys and experiments in six countries to investigate how natives' perceptions of immigrants influence their preferences for redistribution. We find strikingly large biases in natives' perceptions of the number and characteristics of immigrants: in all countries, respondents greatly overestimate the total number of immigrants, think immigrants are culturally and religiously more distant from them, and are economically weaker -- less educated, more unemployed, poorer, and more reliant on government transfers -- than is the case. While all respondents have misperceptions, those with the largest ones are systematically the right-wing, the non college-educated, and the low-educated working in immigration-intensive sectors. Support for redistribution is strongly correlated with the perceived composition of immigrants -- their origin and economic contribution -- rather than with the perceived share of immigrants per se. Given the very negative baseline views that respondents have of immigrants, simply making them think about immigration in a randomized manner makes them support less redistribution, including actual donations to charities. We also experimentally show respondents information about the true i) number, ii) origin, and iii) ``hard work'' of immigrants in their country. On its own, information on the ``hard work'' of immigrants generates more support for redistribution. However, if people are also prompted to think in detail about immigrants' characteristics, then none of these favorable information treatments manages to counteract their negative priors that generate lower support for redistribution.

Abstract: Using a sample of 394 French firms for the period of 2001 to 2010, we study the relationship between female directorship and firms' accounting (ROA and ROE) and market-based (Tobin's Q) performance. We find that female directorship significantly increases ROA and ROE, and significantly decreases Tobin's Q. We postulate that these relationships are affected by the attributes of female directors. To this end, we collect a set of nine different attributes of female directors capturing their monitoring capabilities and contribution to the board's human capital (demographic and board relational attributes). We find that the positive relationship between accounting performance and female directorship remains when we include these attributes, while the negative relationship between Tobin's Q and female directorship disappears. Interestingly, the different attributes of female directors do not uniformly affect accounting and market-based performance. We explain the different relationships between attributes and firm performance by the tradeoff between the benefits and costs of diversity on board effectiveness, particularly in a low investor protection environment.

Abstract: Artificial intelligence may greatly increase the efficiency of the existing economy. But it may have an even larger impact by serving as a new general-purpose “method of invention” that can reshape the nature of the innovation process and the organization of R&D. We distinguish between automation-oriented applications such as robotics and the potential for recent developments in “deep learning” to serve as a general-purpose method of invention, finding strong evidence of a “shift” in the importance of application-oriented learning research since 2009. We suggest that this is likely to lead to a significant substitution away from more routinized labor-intensive research towards research that takes advantage of the interplay between passively generated large datasets and enhanced prediction algorithms. At the same time, the potential commercial rewards from mastering this mode of research are likely to usher in a period of racing, driven by powerful incentives for individual companies to acquire and control critical large datasets and application-specific algorithms. We suggest that policies which encourage transparency and sharing of core datasets across both public and private actors may be critical tools for stimulating research productivity and innovation-oriented competition going forward.

Abstract: In this paper we study estimation of and inference for average treatment effects in a setting with panel data. We focus on the setting where units, e.g., individuals, firms, or states, adopt the policy or treatment of interest at a particular point in time, and then remain exposed to this treatment at all times afterwards. We take a design perspective where we investigate the properties of estimators and procedures given assumptions on the assignment process. We show that under random assignment of the adoption date the standard Difference-In-Differences estimator is is an unbiased estimator of a particular weighted average causal effect. We characterize the proeperties of this estimand, and show that the standard variance estimator is conservative.

Abstract: Chapter 1: Introduction.- Chapter 2: A Short History of the Evolution of the Climate Smart Agriculture Approach and its Links to Climate Change and Sustainable Agriculture Debates.- Chapter 3:Economics of Climate-Smart Agriculture.- Chapter 4: Innovation in Response to Climate Change.- Chapter 5: Use of Satellite Information on Wetness and Temperature for Decision of Crop Yield Prediction, River Discharge and Planning.- Chapter 6: Early Warning Techniques for Local Climate Resilience: Smallholder Rice in Lao PDE.- Chapter 7 : Farmers' Perceptions of and Adaptations to Climate Change in Southeast Asia: The Case Study from Thailand and Vietnam.- Chapter 8: U.S. Maize Yield Growth and Countervailing Climate Change Impacts.- Chapter 9: Understanding Tradeoffs in the Context of Farm-Scale Impacts: An Application of Decision-Support Tools for Assessing Climate Smart Argiculture.- Chapter 10: Can Insurance Help Manage Climate Risk and Food Insecurity?: Evidence from the Pastoral Regions of East Africa.- Chapter 11: Can Cash Transfer Programs Promote Household Resilience?: Cross-Country Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa.- Chapter 12: Input Subsidy Programs and Climate Smart Agriculture.- Chapter 13: Robust Decision Making for a Climate-Resilient Development of the Agricultural Sector in Nigeria.- Chapter 14: Using AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment Methods to Evaluate Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptive Capacity for Climate Smart Agricultural Systems.- Chapter 15: Climate Smart Food Supply Chains in Developing Countries in an Era of Rapid Dual Change in Agrifood Systems and the Climate.- Chapter 16: The Adoption of Climate Smart Agriculture: The Role of Information and Insurance under Climate Change.- Chapter 17: A Qualitative Evaluation of CSA Options in Mixed Crop-Livestock Systems in Developing Countries.- Chapter 18: Identifying Strategies to Enhance the Resilience of Smallholder Farming Systems: Evidence of Zambia.- Chapter 19: Climate Risk Management Through Sustainable Land and Water Management in Sub-Saharan Africa.- Chapter 20: Improving the Resilience of Central Asian Agriculture to Weather Viability and Climate Change.- Chapter 21: Managing Environmental Risk in the Presence of Climate Change: The Role of Adaption in the Mile Basin of Ethiopia.- Chapter 22: Diversification as Part of a CSA Strategy: The Cases of Zambia and Malawi.- Chapter 23: Economic Analysis of Improved Smallholder Paddy and Maize Production in Northern Vietnam and Implications for Climate-Smart Agriculture.- Chapter 24: Synthesis: Devising Effective Strategies and Policies for CSA.- Chapter 25: Conclusions and Policy Implications.

Abstract: Innovation ecosystems are increasingly regarded as important vehicles to create and capture value from complex value propositions. While current literature assumes these value propositions can be known ex-ante and an appropriate ecosystem design derived from them, we focus instead on generative technological innovations that enable an unbounded range of potential value propositions, hence offering no clear guidance to firms. To illustrate our arguments, we inductively study two organizations, each attempting to create two novel ecosystems around new technological enablers deep in their industry architecture. We highlight how ecosystem creation in such conditions is a systemic process driven by coupled feedback loops, which organizations must try to control dynamically: firms first make the switch to creating the ecosystem following an external pull to narrow down the range of potential applications; then need to learn to keep up with ecosystem dynamics by roadmapping and preempting, while simultaneously enacting resonance. Dynamic control further entails counteracting the drifting away of the nascent ecosystem from the firm's idea of future value creation and the sliding of its intended control points for value capture. Our findings shed new light on strategy and control in emerging ecosystems, and provide guidance to managers on playing the ecosystem game.

Abstract: The academic and policy debate regarding the role of central banks and financial regulators in addressing climate-related financial risks has rapidly expanded in recent years. This Perspective presents the key controversies and discusses potential research and policy avenues for the future. Developing a comprehensive analytical framework to assess the potential impact of climate change and the low-carbon transition on financial stability seems to be the first crucial challenge. These enhanced risk measures could then be incorporated in setting financial regulations and implementing the policies of central banks.

Abstract: We analyze the effect of local-level labor market concentration on wages. Using plant-level U.S. Census data over the period 1977–2009, we find that: (1) local-level employer concentration exhibits substantial cross-sectional and time-series variation and increases over time; (2) consistent with labor market monopsony power, there is a negative relation between local-level employer concentration and wages that is more pronounced at high levels of concentration and increases over time; (3) the negative relation between labor market concentration and wages is stronger when unionization rates are low; (4) the link between productivity growth and wage growth is stronger when labor markets are less concentrated; and (5) exposure to greater import competition from China (the “China Shock”) is associated with more concentrated labor markets. These five results emphasize the role of local-level labor market monopsonies in influencing firm wage-setting.

Abstract: What is a strategy? The answer to this question ought to depend on the foresight horizon: how far ahead, and how much, the strategist thinks he can forsee. When the very structure of the firm's world is undergoing cascades of rapid change, and interpretations about the identity of agents and artifacts are characterized by ambiguity, we say that the foresight horizon is complex. We argue that strategy in the face of complex foresight horizons should consist of an on-going set of practices that interpret and construct the relationships that comprise the world in which the firm acts. Our discussion focuses on two intertwined kinds of strategic practices. The first is cognitive: a firm "populates its world" by positing who lives there and interpreting what they do. The second structural: the firm fosters generative relationships within and across its boundries---relationships that produce new sources of value that cannot be foreseen in advance. We illustrate the ideas advanced in the paper with a story about the entry of ROLM into the PDX market in 1975.

Abstract: Lending cuts by banks directly affect the firms borrowing from them, but also indirectly depress economic activity in the regions in which they operate. This paper moves beyond firm-level studies by estimating the effects of an exogenous lending cut by a large German bank on firms and counties. I construct an instrument for regional exposure to the lending cut based on a historic, postwar breakup of the bank. I present evidence that the lending cut affected firms independently of their banking relationships, through lower aggregate demand and agglomeration spillovers in counties exposed to the lending cut. Output and employment remained persistently low even after bank lending had normalized. Innovation and productivity fell, consistent with the persistent effects.

Abstract: The recent acquisitions of IGO CarSharing by Enterprise Holdings in May 2013 and Zipcar by the Avis Budget Group in January 2013 continues a trend of mergers and acquisitions in North American “classic” carsharing (or roundtrip, short-term vehicle access). This trend began in the early 2000s with the Flexcar acquisition of CarSharing Portland in 2001 and the merger of Zipcar and Flexcar in 2007. Mergers and acquisitions again became an industry hallmark with the Enterprise Holdings’ acquisition of PhillyCarShare in 2011 and their acquisition of Mint Cars On-Demand in 2012.

Abstract: The rise of the “gig economy” has attracted wide attention from both scholars and the popular media. Much of this attention has been devoted to jobs mediated through various online platforms. While non-traditional work arrangements have been a perennial subject of debate and study, the perception that new technology is producing an accelerated pace of change in the organization of work has fueled a resurgence of interest in how such changes may be affecting both workers and firms. This paper provides a typology of work arrangements and reviews how different arrangements, and especially gig activity, are captured in existing data. A challenge for understanding recent trends is that household survey and administrative data paint a different picture, with the former showing little evidence of the growth in self-employment that would be implied by a surge in gig activity and the latter providing evidence of considerable recent growth. An examination of matched individual-level survey and administrative records shows that a large and growing fraction of those with self-employment activity in administrative data have no such activity recorded in household survey data. The share of those with self-employment activity in household survey data but not administrative data is smaller and has not grown. Promising avenues for improving the measurement of self-employment activity include the addition of more probing questions to household survey questionnaires and the development of integrated data sets that combine survey, administrative and, potentially, private data.

Abstract: Access to third-party information trails is widely believed to be critical to the development of modern tax systems, but there is limited direct evidence of the effects of changes in information trails. This paper investigates the enforcement effect of an increased availability of third-party information, and sheds light on how governments can harness this information despite collusion opportunities. I exploit unique administrative data on firms and consumers from an anti-tax evasion program in Sao Paulo, Brazil (Nota Fiscal Paulista) that created monetary rewards for consumers to ensure that firms report final sales transactions, and establishes an online verification system that aids consumers in whistle-blowing firms. Using variation in intensity of exposure to the policy, I estimate that firms' reported revenue increased by at least 21% over four years. Heterogeneous effects across firms shed light on mechanisms: the results are consistent with fixed costs to conceal collusive deals and positive shifts in detection probability from whistle-blower threats. I also investigate the effect of whistle-blowers directly: firms report 7% more receipts and 3% more revenue after receiving the first consumer complaint. To study the role of the value of rewards in improving enforcement, I show evidence consistent with the possibility that lottery incentives amplify consumer responses due to behavioral biases, which would make it more costly for firms to try to match government incentives in a collusive deal. Finally, I find that although firms significantly adjusted reported expenses, there was an increase in tax revenue net of rewards of 9.3%.

Abstract: We study inference in shift-share regression designs, such as when a regional outcome is regressed on a weighted average of sectoral shocks, using regional sector shares as weights. We conduct a placebo exercise in which we estimate the effect of a shift-share regressor constructed with randomly generated sectoral shocks on actual labor market outcomes across U.S. Commuting Zones. Tests based on commonly used standard errors with 5\% nominal significance level reject the null of no effect in up to 55\% of the placebo samples. We use a stylized economic model to show that this overrejection problem arises because regression residuals are correlated across regions with similar sectoral shares, independently of their geographic location. We derive novel inference methods that are valid under arbitrary cross-regional correlation in the regression residuals. We show using popular applications of shift-share designs that our methods may lead to substantially wider confidence intervals in practice.

Abstract: This literature review paper discusses the proper use of qualitative research methodology to discuss several aspects of the research for the improvement of the skill of the readers. During the last few decades, the use of qualitative research has been increased in many institutions. It can be used to explore several areas of human behavior for the development of organizations. The purpose of this study is to provide inspirations to the new researchers for the development of their qualitative articles. The paper analyzes the design of qualitative research giving some methodological suggestions to make it explicable to the reader. In this paper an attempt has been taken to study the background of the qualitative research methodology in social sciences and some other related subjects, along with the importance, and main features of the study.

Abstract: We study the effect of physician workforce diversity on the demand for preventive care among African-American men. In an experiment in Oakland, California, we randomize black men to black or non-black male medical doctors. We use a two-stage design, measuring decisions before (pre-consultation) and after (post-consultation) meeting their assigned doctor. Subjects select a similar number of preventives in the preconsultation stage, but are much more likely to select every preventive service, particularly invasive services, once meeting with a racially concordant doctor. Our findings suggest black doctors could reduce the black-white male gap in cardiovascular mortality by 19%.