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Showing papers in "Research Papers in Economics in 2020"


ReportDOI
TL;DR: The economic downturn caused by the current COVID-19 outbreak has substantial implications for gender equality, both during the downturn and the subsequent recovery as discussed by the authors, which has a particularly large impact on working mothers.
Abstract: The economic downturn caused by the current COVID-19 outbreak has substantial implications for gender equality, both during the downturn and the subsequent recovery. Compared to “regular” recessions, which affect men’s employment more severely than women’s employment, the employment drop related to social distancing measures has a large impact on sectors with high female employment shares. In addition, closures of schools and daycare centers have massively increased child care needs, which has a particularly large impact on working mothers. The effects of the crisis on working mothers are likely to be persistent, due to high returns to experience in the labor market. Beyond the immediate crisis, there are opposing forces which may ultimately promote gender equality in the labor market. First, businesses are rapidly adopting flexible work arrangements, which are likely to persist. Second, there are also many fathers who now have to take primary responsibility for child care, which may erode social norms that currently lead to a lopsided distribution of the division of labor in house work and child care.

955 citations


Posted Content
TL;DR: The spread of the virus encouraged social distancing which led to the shutdown of financial markets, corporate offices, businesses and events and the exponential rate at which the virus was spreading, and the heightened uncertainty about how bad the situation could get, led to flight to safety in consumption and investment among consumers, investors and international trade partners as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: How did a health crisis translate to an economic crisis? Why did the spread of the coronavirus bring the global economy to its knees? The answer lies in two methods by which coronavirus stifled economic activities. First, the spread of the virus encouraged social distancing which led to the shutdown of financial markets, corporate offices, businesses and events. Second, the exponential rate at which the virus was spreading, and the heightened uncertainty about how bad the situation could get, led to flight to safety in consumption and investment among consumers, investors and international trade partners.

679 citations


ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: supply shocks that trigger changes in aggregate demand larger than the shocks themselves, and argue that the economic shocks associated to the COVID-19 epidemic may have this feature.
Abstract: We present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: supply shocks that trigger changes in aggregate demand larger than the shocks themselves. We argue that the economic shocks associated to the COVID-19 epidemic—shutdowns, layoffs, and firm exits—may have this feature. In one-sector economies supply shocks are never Keynesian. We show that this is a general result that extend to economies with incomplete markets and liquidity constrained consumers. In economies with multiple sectors Keynesian supply shocks are possible, under some conditions. A 50% shock that hits all sectors is not the same as a 100% shock that hits half the economy. Incomplete markets make the conditions for Keynesian supply shocks more likely to be met. Firm exit and job destruction can amplify the initial effect, aggravating the recession. We discuss the effects of various policies. Standard fiscal stimulus can be less effective than usual because the fact that some sectors are shut down mutes the Keynesian multiplier feedback. Monetary policy, as long as it is unimpeded by the zero lower bound, can have magnified effects, by preventing firm exits. Turning to optimal policy, closing down contact-intensive sectors and providing full insurance payments to affected workers can achieve the first-best allocation, despite the lower per-dollar potency of fiscal policy.

675 citations


BookDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors make estimates of the potential short-term economic impact of COVID-19 on global monetary poverty through contractions in per capita household income or consumption, based on three scenarios: low, medium, and high global contractions of 5, 10, and 20 per cent.
Abstract: In this paper we make estimates of the potential short-term economic impact of COVID-19 on global monetary poverty through contractions in per capita household income or consumption. Our estimates are based on three scenarios: low, medium, and high global contractions of 5, 10, and 20 per cent; we calculate the impact of each of these scenarios on the poverty headcount using the international poverty lines of US$1.90, US$3.20 and US$5.50 per day.

534 citations


Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide information on basic concepts and trends in land use change, and then review the state-of-the-art of land use theory and empirical modeling.
Abstract: This Web Book provides information on basic concepts and trends in land use change, and then reviews the state of the art in land use theory and empirical modeling It concludes by summarizing the main issues pertaining to theories and models of land use change, discusses selected issues in of a more general concern in the context of the analysis of land use change and outlines future research directions

387 citations


ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies, and they report daily statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, employment rates, and other key indicators disaggregated by ZIP code, industry, income group, and business size.
Abstract: We build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies. We report daily statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, employment rates, and other key indicators disaggregated by ZIP code, industry, income group, and business size. Using these data, we study how COVID-19 affected the economy by analyzing heterogeneity in its impacts. We first show that high-income individuals reduced spending sharply in mid-March 2020, particularly in areas with high rates of COVID-19 infection and in sectors that require in-person interaction. This reduction in spending greatly reduced the revenues of small businesses in affluent ZIP codes. These businesses laid off many of their employees, leading to widespread job losses especially among low-wage workers in affluent areas. High-wage workers experienced a “V-shaped” recession that lasted a few weeks, whereas low-wage workers experienced much larger job losses that persisted for several months. Building on this diagnostic analysis, we estimate the causal effects of policies aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of COVID-19. State-ordered reopenings of economies had small impacts on spending and employment. Stimulus payments to low-income households increased consumer spending sharply, but little of this increased spending flowed to businesses most affected by the COVID-19 shock, dampening its impacts on employment. Paycheck Protection Program loans increased employment at small businesses by only 2%, implying a cost of $377,000 per job saved. These results suggest that traditional macroeconomic tools – stimulating aggregate demand or providing liquidity to businesses – have diminished capacity to restore employment when consumer spending is constrained by health concerns. During a pandemic, it may be more fruitful to mitigate economic hardship through social insurance. More broadly, this analysis shows how public statistics constructed from private sector data can support many research and policy analyses without compromising privacy, providing a new tool for empirical macroeconomics.

372 citations


Posted Content
TL;DR: The Economics of Happiness as discussed by the authors, which is based on people's reports of how their lives are going, provides a complementary yet radically different approach to studying human well-being, including positive and negative feelings (e.g., momentary experiences of happiness or stress), life evaluations, and feelings of having a life purpose.
Abstract: Welfare and well-being have traditionally been gauged by using income and employment statistics, life expectancy, and other objective measures. The Economics of Happiness, which is based on people’s reports of how their lives are going, provides a complementary yet radically different approach to studying human well-being. Typically, subjective well-being measures include positive and negative feelings (e.g., momentary experiences of happiness or stress), life evaluations (e.g., life satisfaction), and feelings of having a life purpose. Both businesses and policymakers now increasingly make decisions and craft policies based on such measures. This chapter provides an overview of the Happiness Economics approach and outlines the promises and pitfalls of subjective well-being measures.

331 citations


Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore how household consumption responds to epidemics, utilizing transaction-level household financial data to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 virus on household consumption.
Abstract: We explore how household consumption responds to epidemics, utilizing transaction-level household financial data to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 virus. As the number of cases grew, households began to radically alter their typical spending across a number of major categories. Initially spending increased sharply, particularly in retail, credit card spending and food items. This was followed by a sharp decrease in overall spending. Households responded most strongly in states with shelter-in-place orders in place by March 29th. We explore heterogeneity across partisan affiliation, demographics and income. Greater levels of social distancing are associated with drops in spending, particularly in restaurants and retail.

294 citations


ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, targeted lockdowns in a multi-group SIR model where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary between groups are studied. But the authors focus on the older groups and do not consider the younger groups.
Abstract: We study targeted lockdowns in a multi-group SIR model where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary between groups—in particular between the 'young', 'the middle-aged' and the 'old'. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy. For baseline parameter values for the COVID-19 pandemic applied to the US, we find that optimal policies differentially targeting risk/age groups significantly outperform optimal uniform policies and most of the gains can be realized by having stricter lockdown policies on the oldest group. Intuitively, a strict and long lockdown for the most vulnerable group both reduces infections and enables less strict lockdowns for the lower-risk groups. We also study the impacts of group distancing, testing and contract tracing, the matching technology and the expected arrival time of a vaccine on optimal policies. Overall, targeted policies that are combined with measures that reduce interactions between groups and increase testing and isolation of the infected can minimize both economic losses and deaths in our model. Download Updated Version

291 citations


Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore seven different scenarios of how COVID-19 might evolve in the coming year using a modelling technique developed by Lee and McKibbin (2003) and extended by McKibbin and Sidorenko (2006) and examine the impacts of different scenarios on macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model.
Abstract: The outbreak of coronavirus named COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. In order to better understand possible economic outcomes, this paper explores seven different scenarios of how COVID-19 might evolve in the coming year using a modelling technique developed by Lee and McKibbin (2003) and extended by McKibbin and Sidorenko (2006). It examines the impacts of different scenarios on macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model.The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and popultion density is high.

286 citations


Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify nine main pathways linking pandemics and violence against women and children through effects of economic insecurity and poverty-related stress, quarantines and social isolation, disaster and conflict-related unrest and instability, exposure to exploitative relationships due to changing demographics, reduced health service availability and access to first responders, inability of women to temporarily escape abusive partners, virus-specific sources of violence, and exposure to violence and coercion in response efforts, and violence perpetrated against health care workers.
Abstract: Times of economic uncertainty, civil unrest and disaster are linked to a myriad of risk factors for increased violence against women and children (VAW/C). Pandemics are no exception. In fact, the regional or global nature and associated fear and uncertainty associated with pandemics provide an enabling environment that may exacerbate or spark diverse forms of violence. Understanding mechanisms underlying these dynamics are important for crafting policy and program responses to mitigate adverse effects. Based on existing published and grey literature, we document nine main (direct and indirect) pathways linking pandemics and VAW/C, through effects of (on):(1) economic insecurity and poverty-related stress, (2) quarantines and social isolation, (3) disaster and conflict-related unrest and instability, (4) exposure to exploitative relationships due to changing demographics, (5) reduced health service availability and access to first responders, (6) inability of women to temporarily escape abusive partners, (7) virus-specific sources of violence, (8) exposure to violence and coercion in response efforts, and (9) violence perpetrated against health care workers. We also suggest additional pathways with limited or anecdotal evidence likely to effect smaller sub-groups. Based on these mechanisms, we suggest eight policy and program responses for action by governments, civil society, international and community-based organizations. Finally, as research linking pandemics directly to diverse forms of VAW/C is scarce, we lay out a research agenda comprising three main streams, to better (1) understand the magnitude of the problem, (2) elucidate mechanisms and linkages with other social and economic factors and (3) inform intervention and response options. We hope this paper can be used by researchers, practitioners, and policymakers to help inform further evidence generation and policy action while situating VAW/C within the broader need for intersectional gender- and feminist-informed pandemic response.

Posted ContentDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors tried to gain a better understanding of how the COVID-19 crisis may affect students' learning by looking at the different direct and indirect ways through which the virus and the measures adopted to contain it may impact children's achievement.
Abstract: In order to reduce the spread of COVID-19, most countries around the world have decided to temporarily close educational institutions However, learning has not stopped but is now fully taking place online as schools and universities provide remote schooling Using existing literature and evidence from recent international data (Eurostat, PISA, ICILS, PIRLS, TALIS), this report attempts to gain a better understanding of how the COVID-19 crisis may affect students’ learning It looks at the different direct and indirect ways through which the virus and the measures adopted to contain it may impact children’s achievement ‘Very conservative’ estimates for a few selected EU countries consistently indicate that, on average, students will suffer a learning loss It is also suggested that COVID-19 will not affect students equally, will influence negatively both cognitive and non-cognitive skills acquisition, and may have important long-term consequences in addition to the short-term ones

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors make an attempt to understand the optimal response to an infectious disease and find that the observed policies are very close to a simple welfare maximization problem of a planner who tries to stop the diffusion of the disease.
Abstract: Many countries are taking measures stopping productive activities to slow down the spread of COVID-19. At times these measures have been criticized as being excessive and too costly. In this paper we make an attempt to understand the optimal response to an infectious disease. We find that the observed policies are very close to a simple welfare maximization problem of a planner who tries to stop the diffusion of the disease. These extreme measures seem optimal in spite of the high output cost that it may have in the short run, and for various curvatures of the welfare function. The desire for cost smoothing reduces the intensity of the optimal quarantine while extending it for longer, but it still amounts to reducing economic activity by at least 40%. We then study the possibility of either complementing or substituting the quarantine policy with random testing. We find that testing is a very close substitute of quarantine and can substantially reduce the need for indiscriminate quarantines.

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors study how intentions to comply with self-isolation restrictions in Italy respond to the length of their possible extension, and they find that respondents who are positively surprised by a given hypothetical extension (i.e. the extension is shorter than what they expected) are more willing to increase their self isolation.
Abstract: We study how intentions to comply with the self-isolation restrictions enacted in Italy in response to the COVID-19 crisis respond to the length of their possible extension. Based on a survey of a representative sample of Italian residents (N=894), we find that respondents who are positively surprised by a given hypothetical extension (i.e. the extension is shorter than what they expected) are more willing to increase their self-isolation. In contrast, negative surprises (extensions longer than expected) relate with a lower willingness to comply. In a context where individual compliance has collective benefits, but full enforcement is costly and controversial, communication and persuasion have a fundamental role. Our findings provide insights to public authorities on how to announce lockdown measures and manage people's expectations.


Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, data on firm-loan-level daily credit line drawdown in the United States reveals a corporate "dash for cash" induced by COVID-19.
Abstract: Data on firm-loan-level daily credit line drawdowns in the United States reveals a corporate "dash for cash" induced by COVID-19. In the first phase of extreme precaution and heightened aggregate risk, all firms drew down bank credit lines and raised cash levels. In the second phase following the adoption of stabilization policies, only the highest-rated firms switched to capital markets to raise cash. Consistent with the risk of becoming a fallen angel, the lowest-quality BBB-rated firms behaved more similarly to non-investment grade firms. The observed corporate behavior reveals the significant impact of credit risk on corporate cash holdings.

Posted Content
TL;DR: It is shown that orthogonality holds when observed shocks are as-good-as-randomly assigned and growing in number, with the average shock exposure sufficiently dispersed, so that shift-share instruments can be implemented with new shock-level procedures.
Abstract: Many studies use shift-share (or "Bartik") instruments, which average a set of shocks with exposure share weights. We provide a new econometric framework for shift-share instrumental variable (SSIV) regressions in which identification follows from the quasi-random assignment of shocks, while exposure shares are allowed to be endogenous. The framework is motivated by an equivalence result: the orthogonality between a shift-share instrument and an unobserved residual can be represented as the orthogonality between the underlying shocks and a shock-level unobservable. SSIV regression coefficients can similarly be obtained from an equivalent shock-level regression, motivating shock-level conditions for their consistency. We discuss and illustrate several practical insights of this framework in the setting of Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013), estimating the effect of Chinese import competition on manufacturing employment across U.S. commuting zones.

Posted Content
TL;DR: This paper found visitors' intentions to use social robots stem from the effects of technology acceptance variables, service quality dimensions leading to perceived value, and two further dimensions from human robot interaction (HRI): empathy and information sharing.
Abstract: Social robots have become pervasive in the tourism and hospitality service environments The empirical understanding of the drivers of visitors' intentions to use robots in such services has become an urgent necessity for their sustainable deployment Certainly, using social androids within hospitality services requires organisations' attentive commitment to value creation and fulfilling service quality expectations In this paper, via structural equation modelling (SEM) and semi-structured interviews with managers, we conceptualise and empirically test visitors' intentions to use social robots in hospitality services With data collected in Singapore's hospitality settings, we found visitors' intentions to use social robots stem from the effects of technology acceptance variables, service quality dimensions leading to perceived value, and two further dimensions from human robot interaction (HRI): empathy and information sharing Analysis of these dimensions' importance provides a deeper understanding of novel opportunities managers may take advantage of to position social robot-delivered services in tourism and hospitality strategies

ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compare the impact of Nudge interventions in academic studies and at-scale implementation in Nudge Units in government. And they conclude that publication bias in academic journals, exacerbated by low statistical power, can account for the full difference in effect sizes.
Abstract: Nudge interventions have quickly expanded from academic studies to larger implementation in so-called Nudge Units in governments. This provides an opportunity to compare interventions in research studies, versus at scale. We assemble a unique data set of 126 RCTs covering over 23 million individuals, including all trials run by two of the largest Nudge Units in the United States. We compare these trials to a sample of nudge trials published in academic journals from two recent meta-analyses. In papers published in academic journals, the average impact of a nudge is very large – an 8.7 percentage point take-up effect, a 33.5% increase over the average control. In the Nudge Unit trials, the average impact is still sizable and highly statistically significant, but smaller at 1.4 percentage points, an 8.1% increase. We consider five potential channels for this gap: statistical power, selective publication, academic involvement, differences in trial features and in nudge features. Publication bias in the academic journals, exacerbated by low statistical power, can account for the full difference in effect sizes. Academic involvement does not account for the difference. Different features of the nudges, such as in-person versus letter-based communication, likely reflecting institutional constraints, can partially explain the different effect sizes. We conjecture that larger sample sizes and institutional constraints, which play an important role in our setting, are relevant in other at-scale implementations. Finally, we compare these results to the predictions of academics and practitioners. Most forecasters overestimate the impact for the Nudge Unit interventions, though nudge practitioners are almost perfectly calibrated.

ReportDOI
TL;DR: The effects of cable news in the US on regional differences in compliance with recommendations by health experts to practice social disability practice are tested for and measured.
Abstract: We test for and measure the effects of cable news in the US on regional differences in compliance with recommendations by health experts to practice social distancing during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a quasi-experimental design to estimate the causal effect of Fox News viewership on stay-at-home behavior by using only the incremental local viewership due to the quasi-random assignment of channel positions in a local cable line-up. We find that a 10% increase in Fox News cable viewership (approximately 0:13 higher viewer rating points) leads to a 1.3 percentage point reduction in the propensity to stay at home. We find a persuasion rate of Fox News on non-compliance with stay-at-home behavior during the crisis of about 5:7% - 28:4% across our various social distancing metrics.

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the Covid-19 coronavirus is spreading throughout the globe, and the consensus is that the virus will cause a negative supply shock to the world economy, by forcing factories to shut down and disrupting global supply chains.
Abstract: As we write, the Covid-19 coronavirus is spreading throughout the globe. Besides its impact on public health, this coronavirus outbreak is likely to have significant economic consequences. The consensus is that the virus will cause a negative supply shock to the world economy, by forcing factories to shut down and disrupting global supply chains (OECD, 2020). But how deep and persistent is this supply disruption going to be? Will aggregate demand be affected? What is the appropriate monetary policy response? What about fiscal policy? These questions are currently at the center of a heated debate.

ReportDOI
TL;DR: This article examined the impact of the social distancing policies states adopted between March and April of 2020 in response to the COVID-19 epidemic and found that the employment rate fell by about 1.7 percentage points for every extra 10 days that a state experienced a stay-at-home mandate during the period March 12-April 12, 2020; select business closure laws were associated with similar employment effects.
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the social distancing policies states adopted between March and April of 2020 in response to the COVID-19 epidemic. These actions, together with voluntary social distancing, appear to have reduced the rate of new COVID-19 cases and deaths, but raised concerns about the costs experienced by workers and businesses. Estimates from difference-in-difference models that leverage cross-state variation in the timing of business closures and stay-at-home mandates suggest that the employment rate fell by about 1.7 percentage points for every extra 10 days that a state experienced a stay-at-home mandate during the period March 12-April 12, 2020; select business closure laws were associated with similar employment effects. Our estimates imply that about 40% of the 12 percentage point decline in employment rates between January and April 2020 was due to a nationwide shock while about 60% was driven by state social distancing policies. The negative employment effects of state policies were larger for workers in "non-essential" industries, workers without a college degree, and early-career workers. Policy caused relatively modest changes in hours worked and earnings among those who remain employed. We find no concerning evidence of pre-trends in the monthly (low-frequency) CPS data, but use high-frequency data on work-related mobility measured from cellphones, job-loss-related internet searches, and initial unemployment claims to investigate the possibility that the large employment effects experienced in April could have occurred after the March CPS but but before policy adoption. In those analyses, we find pre-trends for some outcomes but not others. Thus we cannot fully rule out that some employment effects shortly predated the policies. As states relax business closures, ensuring gains in labor market activities in ways that continue to mitigate COVID-19 "surges" and public health risks will be key considerations to monitor.

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the effects of the covid-19 lockdown in Spain, which was hit early and hard by the pandemic and suffered one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe, were investigated.
Abstract: The covid-19 pandemic led many countries to close schools and declare lockdowns during the Spring of 2020, with important impacts on the labor market. We document the effects of the covid-19 lockdown in Spain, which was hit early and hard by the pandemic and suffered one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe. We collected rich household survey data in early May of 2020. We document large employment losses during the lockdown, especially in "quarantined" sectors and non-essential sectors that do not allow for remote work. Employment losses were mostly temporary, and hit lower-educated workers particularly hard. Women were slightly more likely to lose their job than men, and those who remained employed were more likely to work from home. The lockdown led to a large increase in childcare and housework, given the closing of schools and the inability to outsource. We find that men increased their participation in housework and childcare slightly, but most of the burden fell on women, who were already doing most of the housework before the lockdown. Overall, we find that the covid-19 crisis appears to have increased gender inequalities in both paid and unpaid work in the short-term.

Posted Content
TL;DR: Religiousiosity has risen globally due to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic with potential direct long-term consequences for various socio-economic outcomes.
Abstract: In times of crisis, humans have a tendency to turn to religion for comfort and explanation. The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic is no exception. Using daily data on Google searches for 95 countries, this research demonstrates that the COVID-19 crisis has increased Google searches for prayer (relative to all Google searches) to the highest level ever recorded. More than half of the world population had prayed to end the coronavirus. The rise amounts to 50% of the previous level of prayer searches or a quarter of the fall in Google searches for flights, which dropped dramatically due to the closure of most international air transport. Prayer searches rose at all levels of income, inequality, and insecurity, but not for the 10% least religious countries. The increase is not merely a substitute for services in the physical churches that closed down to limit the spread of the virus. Instead, the rise is due to an intensified demand for religion: We pray to cope with adversity.

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the economic impact of social distancing measures taken to arrest the spread of COVID-19 raises a fundamental question about the modern economy: How many jobs can be performed at home?
Abstract: Evaluating the economic impact of "social distancing" measures taken to arrest the spread of COVID-19 raises a fundamental question about the modern economy: How many jobs can be performed at home? We classify the feasibility of working at home for all occupations and merge this classification with occupational employment counts for the United States. Our classification implies that 37 percent of U.S. jobs can plausibly be performed at home.

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate if the anti-scientific rhetoric of modern populists can induce followers to engage in risky behavior by gathering electoral information, in-person card transactions, and geo-localized mobile phone data for approximately 60 million devices in Brazil.
Abstract: This paper investigates if the anti-scientific rhetoric of modern populists can induce followers to engage in risky behavior. We gather electoral information, in-person card transactions, and geo-localized mobile phone data for approximately 60 million devices in Brazil. After the president publicly dismissed the risks of the COVID-19 pandemic and challenged scientific community recommendations, social distancing in pro-government localities declined. Consistently, general in-person transactions increased immediately, while expenses in pharmacies and cases grew with a six-day lag. Results are driven by localities with higher media penetration levels, active Twitter accounts, and a larger proportion of Evangelical Christians, a critical electoral group.

ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provided the first analysis of impacts of the pandemic on the number of active small businesses in the United States using nationally representative data from the April 2020 CPS.
Abstract: Social distancing restrictions and demand shifts from COVID-19 are expected to shutter many small businesses, but there is very little early evidence on impacts. This paper provides the first analysis of impacts of the pandemic on the number of active small businesses in the United States using nationally representative data from the April 2020 CPS – the first month fully capturing early effects from the pandemic. The number of active business owners in the United States plummeted by 3.3 million or 22 percent over the crucial two-month window from February to April 2020. The drop in business owners was the largest on record, and losses were felt across nearly all industries and even for incorporated businesses. African-American businesses were hit especially hard experiencing a 41 percent drop. Latinx business owners fell by 32 percent, and Asian business owners dropped by 26 percent. Simulations indicate that industry compositions partly placed these groups at a higher risk of losses. Immigrant business owners experienced substantial losses of 36 percent. Female-owned businesses were also disproportionately hit by 25 percent. These findings of early-stage losses to small businesses have important policy implications and may portend longer-term ramifications for job losses and economic inequality.

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a comprehensive review of the recent evidence on financial inclusion from all regions of the World and identify the emerging themes in the financial inclusion literature as well as some controversy in policy circles regarding financial inclusion.
Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive review of the recent evidence on financial inclusion from all regions of the World. It identifies the emerging themes in the financial inclusion literature as well as some controversy in policy circles regarding financial inclusion. In particular, I draw attention to some issues such as optimal financial inclusion, extreme financial inclusion, how financial inclusion can transmit systemic risk to the formal financial sector, and whether financial inclusion and exclusion are pro-cyclical with changes in the economic cycle. The key findings in this review indicate that financial inclusion affects, and is influenced by, the level of financial innovation, poverty levels, the stability of the financial sector, the state of the economy, financial literacy, and regulatory frameworks which differ across countries. Finally, the issues discussed in this paper opens up several avenues for future research

Posted Content
TL;DR: The authors provide an overview of the integration of refugees into the labor markets of a number of high-income countries, examining employment and wages for these groups over time after arrival, concluding that supporting refugees in early labor market attachment is crucial.
Abstract: We provide an overview of the integration of refugees into the labor markets of a number of high-income countries. Discussing the ways in which refugees and economic migrants are differently selected and so might be expected to perform differently in a host country’s labor market, we examine employment and wages for these groups over time after arrival. There is significant heterogeneity between host countries, but in general refugees experience persistently worse outcomes than other migrants. While the gaps between the groups can be seen to decrease on a timescale of a decade or two, this is more pronounced in employment rates than it is in wages. We also discuss how refugees are distinct in terms of other factors affecting integration, including health, language skills and social networks. We provide a discussion of insights for public policy in receiving countries, concluding that supporting refugees in early labor market attachment is crucial.

BookDOI
TL;DR: This article used Google mobility data to identify the determinants of social distancing during the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak and found that much of the decrease in mobility is voluntary, driven by the number of COVID19 cases and proxying for greater awareness of risk.
Abstract: The paper uses Google mobility data to identify the determinants of social distancing during the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. The findings for the United States indicate that much of the decrease in mobility is voluntary, driven by the number of COVID-19 cases and proxying for greater awareness of risk. Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as closing nonessential businesses, sheltering in place, and school closings are also effective, although with a total contribution dwarfed by the voluntary actions. This suggests that much social distancing will happen regardless of the presence of non-pharmaceutical interventions and that restrictions may often function more like a coordinating device among increasingly predisposed individuals than repressive measures per se. These results are consistent across country income groups, with only the poorest countries showing limited effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions and no voluntary component, consistent with resistance to abandon sources of livelihood. The paper also confirms the direct impact of the voluntary component on economic activity, by showing that the majority of the fall in restaurant reservations in the United States and movie spending in Sweden occurred before the imposition of any non-pharmaceutical interventions. Widespread voluntary de-mobilization implies that releasing constraints may not yield a V-shaped recovery if the reduction in COVID risk is not credible.