Showing papers in "Science in 2012"
TL;DR: This study reveals a family of endonucleases that use dual-RNAs for site-specific DNA cleavage and highlights the potential to exploit the system for RNA-programmable genome editing.
Abstract: Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)/CRISPR-associated (Cas) systems provide bacteria and archaea with adaptive immunity against viruses and plasmids by using CRISPR RNAs (crRNAs) to guide the silencing of invading nucleic acids. We show here that in a subset of these systems, the mature crRNA that is base-paired to trans-activating crRNA (tracrRNA) forms a two-RNA structure that directs the CRISPR-associated protein Cas9 to introduce double-stranded (ds) breaks in target DNA. At sites complementary to the crRNA-guide sequence, the Cas9 HNH nuclease domain cleaves the complementary strand, whereas the Cas9 RuvC-like domain cleaves the noncomplementary strand. The dual-tracrRNA:crRNA, when engineered as a single RNA chimera, also directs sequence-specific Cas9 dsDNA cleavage. Our study reveals a family of endonucleases that use dual-RNAs for site-specific DNA cleavage and highlights the potential to exploit the system for RNA-programmable genome editing.
12,865 citations
TL;DR: A low-cost, solution-processable solar cell, based on a highly crystalline perovskite absorber with intense visible to near-infrared absorptivity, that has a power conversion efficiency of 10.9% in a single-junction device under simulated full sunlight is reported.
Abstract: The energy costs associated with separating tightly bound excitons (photoinduced electron-hole pairs) and extracting free charges from highly disordered low-mobility networks represent fundamental losses for many low-cost photovoltaic technologies. We report a low-cost, solution-processable solar cell, based on a highly crystalline perovskite absorber with intense visible to near-infrared absorptivity, that has a power conversion efficiency of 10.9% in a single-junction device under simulated full sunlight. This "meso-superstructured solar cell" exhibits exceptionally few fundamental energy losses; it can generate open-circuit photovoltages of more than 1.1 volts, despite the relatively narrow absorber band gap of 1.55 electron volts. The functionality arises from the use of mesoporous alumina as an inert scaffold that structures the absorber and forces electrons to reside in and be transported through the perovskite.
9,158 citations
TL;DR: It is shown that graphite oxide sheets can be converted by infrared laser irradiation into porous graphene sheets that are flexible, robust, and highly conductive, and hold promise for high-power, flexible electronics.
Abstract: Although electrochemical capacitors (ECs), also known as supercapacitors or ultracapacitors, charge and discharge faster than batteries, they are still limited by low energy densities and slow rate capabilities. We used a standard LightScribe DVD optical drive to do the direct laser reduction of graphite oxide films to graphene. The produced films are mechanically robust, show high electrical conductivity (1738 siemens per meter) and specific surface area (1520 square meters per gram), and can thus be used directly as EC electrodes without the need for binders or current collectors, as is the case for conventional ECs. Devices made with these electrodes exhibit ultrahigh energy density values in different electrolytes while maintaining the high power density and excellent cycle stability of ECs. Moreover, these ECs maintain excellent electrochemical attributes under high mechanical stress and thus hold promise for high-power, flexible electronics.
3,603 citations
TL;DR: A review of the state of the art of photoacoustic tomography for both biological and clinical studies can be found in this paper, where the authors discuss the current state-of-the-art and discuss future prospects.
Abstract: Photoacoustic tomography (PAT) can create multiscale multicontrast images of living biological structures ranging from organelles to organs. This emerging technology overcomes the high degree of scattering of optical photons in biological tissue by making use of the photoacoustic effect. Light absorption by molecules creates a thermally induced pressure jump that launches ultrasonic waves, which are received by acoustic detectors to form images. Different implementations of PAT allow the spatial resolution to be scaled with the desired imaging depth in tissue while a high depth-to-resolution ratio is maintained. As a rule of thumb, the achievable spatial resolution is on the order of 1/200 of the desired imaging depth, which can reach up to 7 centimeters. PAT provides anatomical, functional, metabolic, molecular, and genetic contrasts of vasculature, hemodynamics, oxygen metabolism, biomarkers, and gene expression. We review the state of the art of PAT for both biological and clinical studies and discuss future prospects.
3,518 citations
TL;DR: A deeper understanding of the axes that physiologically connect the gut, liver, muscle, and brain are a prerequisite for optimizing therapeutic strategies to manipulate the gut microbiota to combat disease and improve health.
Abstract: The composition and activity of the gut microbiota codevelop with the host from birth and is subject to a complex interplay that depends on the host genome, nutrition, and life-style. The gut microbiota is involved in the regulation of multiple host metabolic pathways, giving rise to interactive host-microbiota metabolic, signaling, and immune-inflammatory axes that physiologically connect the gut, liver, muscle, and brain. A deeper understanding of these axes is a prerequisite for optimizing therapeutic strategies to manipulate the gut microbiota to combat disease and improve health.
3,509 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a giant spin Hall effect (SHE) in β-tantalum was shown to generate spin currents intense enough to induce spin-torque switching of ferromagnets at room temperature.
Abstract: Spin currents can apply useful torques in spintronic devices. The spin Hall effect has been proposed as a source of spin current, but its modest strength has limited its usefulness. We report a giant spin Hall effect (SHE) in β-tantalum that generates spin currents intense enough to induce efficient spin-torque switching of ferromagnets at room temperature. We quantify this SHE by three independent methods and demonstrate spin-torque switching of both out-of-plane and in-plane magnetized layers. We furthermore implement a three-terminal device that uses current passing through a tantalum-ferromagnet bilayer to switch a nanomagnet, with a magnetic tunnel junction for read-out. This simple, reliable, and efficient design may eliminate the main obstacles to the development of magnetic memory and nonvolatile spin logic technologies.
3,330 citations
TL;DR: Advances in understanding of the interactions between resident microbes and the immune system are reviewed and the implications for human health are reviewed.
Abstract: The large numbers of microorganisms that inhabit mammalian body surfaces have a highly coevolved relationship with the immune system. Although many of these microbes carry out functions that are critical for host physiology, they nevertheless pose the threat of breach with ensuing pathologies. The mammalian immune system plays an essential role in maintaining homeostasis with resident microbial communities, thus ensuring that the mutualistic nature of the host-microbial relationship is maintained. At the same time, resident bacteria profoundly shape mammalian immunity. Here, we review advances in our understanding of the interactions between resident microbes and the immune system and the implications of these findings for human health.
3,330 citations
TL;DR: Electrical measurements on indium antimonide nanowires contacted with one normal (gold) and one superconducting (niobium titanium nitride) electrode support the hypothesis of Majorana fermions in Nanowires coupled to superconductors.
Abstract: Majorana fermions are particles identical to their own antiparticles. They have been theoretically predicted to exist in topological superconductors. Here, we report electrical measurements on indium antimonide nanowires contacted with one normal (gold) and one superconducting (niobium titanium nitride) electrode. Gate voltages vary electron density and define a tunnel barrier between normal and superconducting contacts. In the presence of magnetic fields on the order of 100 millitesla, we observe bound, midgap states at zero bias voltage. These bound states remain fixed to zero bias, even when magnetic fields and gate voltages are changed over considerable ranges. Our observations support the hypothesis of Majorana fermions in nanowires coupled to superconductors.
3,273 citations
TL;DR: P pervasive involvement of regulatory DNA variation in common human disease and provide pathogenic insights into diverse disorders are suggested.
Abstract: Genome-wide association studies have identified many noncoding variants associated with common diseases and traits. We show that these variants are concentrated in regulatory DNA marked by deoxyribonuclease I (DNase I) hypersensitive sites (DHSs). Eighty-eight percent of such DHSs are active during fetal development and are enriched in variants associated with gestational exposure–related phenotypes. We identified distant gene targets for hundreds of variant-containing DHSs that may explain phenotype associations. Disease-associated variants systematically perturb transcription factor recognition sequences, frequently alter allelic chromatin states, and form regulatory networks. We also demonstrated tissue-selective enrichment of more weakly disease-associated variants within DHSs and the de novo identification of pathogenic cell types for Crohn’s disease, multiple sclerosis, and an electrocardiogram trait, without prior knowledge of physiological mechanisms. Our results suggest pervasive involvement of regulatory DNA variation in common human disease and provide pathogenic insights into diverse disorders.
3,177 citations
TL;DR: The specific features of supramolecular polymers that can lead to applications in a variety of fields are reviewed, including: materials—in which processability and self-healing properties are of interest; biomedicine— in which the concerns are dynamic functionality and biodegradability; and hierarchical assembly and electronic systems—with an interest in unidirectionality of charge flow.
Abstract: Supramolecular polymers can be random and entangled coils with the mechanical properties of plastics and elastomers, but with great capacity for processability, recycling, and self-healing due to their reversible monomer-to-polymer transitions. At the other extreme, supramolecular polymers can be formed by self-assembly among designed subunits to yield shape-persistent and highly ordered filaments. The use of strong and directional interactions among molecular subunits can achieve not only rich dynamic behavior but also high degrees of internal order that are not known in ordinary polymers. They can resemble, for example, the ordered and dynamic one-dimensional supramolecular assemblies of the cell cytoskeleton and possess useful biological and electronic functions.
2,777 citations
TL;DR: Submicrometer-thick membranes made from graphene oxide can be completely impermeable to liquids, vapors, and gases, including helium, but these membranes allow unimpeded permeation of water (H2O permeates through the membranes at least 1010 times faster than He).
Abstract: Permeation through nanometer pores is important in the design of materials for filtration and separation techniques and because of unusual fundamental behavior arising at the molecular scale. We found that submicrometer-thick membranes made from graphene oxide can be completely impermeable to liquids, vapors, and gases, including helium, but these membranes allow unimpeded permeation of water (H 2 O permeates through the membranes at least 10 10 times faster than He). We attribute these seemingly incompatible observations to a low-friction flow of a monolayer of water through two-dimensional capillaries formed by closely spaced graphene sheets. Diffusion of other molecules is blocked by reversible narrowing of the capillaries in low humidity and/or by their clogging with water.
TL;DR: In their Perspective, Hoppins and Nunnari explain that the endoplasmic reticulum is an active participant in mitochondrial division and discuss how mitochondrial dynamics and cell death are linked.
Abstract: Mitochondrial fission and fusion play critical roles in maintaining functional mitochondria when cells experience metabolic or environmental stresses. Fusion helps mitigate stress by mixing the contents of partially damaged mitochondria as a form of complementation. Fission is needed to create new mitochondria, but it also contributes to quality control by enabling the removal of damaged mitochondria and can facilitate apoptosis during high levels of cellular stress. Disruptions in these processes affect normal development, and they have been implicated in neurodegenerative diseases, such as Parkinson’s.
TL;DR: A bipolar field-effect transistor that exploits the low density of states in graphene and its one-atomic-layer thickness is reported, which has potential for high-frequency operation and large-scale integration.
Abstract: An obstacle to the use of graphene as an alternative to silicon electronics has been the absence of an energy gap between its conduction and valence bands, which makes it difficult to achieve low power dissipation in the OFF state We report a bipolar field-effect transistor that exploits the low density of states in graphene and its one-atomic-layer thickness Our prototype devices are graphene heterostructures with atomically thin boron nitride or molybdenum disulfide acting as a vertical transport barrier They exhibit room-temperature switching ratios of ≈50 and ≈10,000, respectively Such devices have potential for high-frequency operation and large-scale integration
TL;DR: It is found that the transcription factor Myb was required for development of HSCs and all CD11bhigh monocytes and macrophages, but was dispensable for yolk sac (YS)macrophages and for the development of YS-derived F4/80bright macrophage populations in several tissues.
Abstract: Macrophages and dendritic cells (DCs) are key components of cellular immunity and are thought to originate and renew from hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs). However, some macrophages develop in the embryo before the appearance of definitive HSCs. We thus reinvestigated macrophage development. We found that the transcription factor Myb was required for development of HSCs and all CD11b(high) monocytes and macrophages, but was dispensable for yolk sac (YS) macrophages and for the development of YS-derived F4/80(bright) macrophages in several tissues, such as liver Kupffer cells, epidermal Langerhans cells, and microglia--cell populations that all can persist in adult mice independently of HSCs. These results define a lineage of tissue macrophages that derive from the YS and are genetically distinct from HSC progeny.
TL;DR: It is found that in wild-type nontransgenic mice, a single intrastriatal inoculation of synthetic α- Syn fibrils led to the cell-to-cell transmission of pathologic α-Syn and Parkinson’s-like Lewy pathology in anatomically interconnected regions.
Abstract: Parkinson's disease is characterized by abundant α-synuclein (α-Syn) neuronal inclusions, known as Lewy bodies and Lewy neurites, and the massive loss of midbrain dopamine neurons. However, a cause-and-effect relationship between Lewy inclusion formation and neurodegeneration remains unclear. Here, we found that in wild-type nontransgenic mice, a single intrastriatal inoculation of synthetic α-Syn fibrils led to the cell-to-cell transmission of pathologic α-Syn and Parkinson's-like Lewy pathology in anatomically interconnected regions. Lewy pathology accumulation resulted in progressive loss of dopamine neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta, but not in the adjacent ventral tegmental area, and was accompanied by reduced dopamine levels culminating in motor deficits. This recapitulation of a neurodegenerative cascade thus establishes a mechanistic link between transmission of pathologic α-Syn and the cardinal features of Parkinson's disease.
TL;DR: This work shows how to identify the crucial atomic structure motif for the industrial Cu/ZnO/Al2O3 methanol synthesis catalyst by using a combination of experimental evidence from bulk, surface-sensitive, and imaging methods collected on real high-performance catalytic systems in combination with density functional theory calculations.
Abstract: Unlike homogeneous catalysts, heterogeneous catalysts that have been optimized through decades are typically so complex and hard to characterize that the nature of the catalytically active site is not known. This is one of the main stumbling blocks in developing rational catalyst design strategies in heterogeneous catalysis. We show here how to identify the crucial atomic structure motif for the industrial Cu/ZnO/Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} methanol synthesis catalyst. Using a combination of experimental evidence from bulk-, surface-sensitive and imaging methods collected on real high-performance catalytic systems in combination with DFT calculations. We show that the active site consists of Cu steps peppered with Zn atoms, all stabilized by a series of well defined bulk defects and surface species that need jointly to be present for the system to work.
TL;DR: It is shown that surface modifiers based on polymers containing simple aliphatic amine groups substantially reduce the work function of conductors including metals, transparent conductive metal oxides, conducting polymers, and graphene.
Abstract: Organic and printed electronics technologies require conductors with a work function that is sufficiently low to facilitate the transport of electrons in and out of various optoelectronic devices. We show that surface modifiers based on polymers containing simple aliphatic amine groups substantially reduce the work function of conductors including metals, transparent conductive metal oxides, conducting polymers, and graphene. The reduction arises from physisorption of the neutral polymer, which turns the modified conductors into efficient electron-selective electrodes in organic optoelectronic devices. These polymer surface modifiers are processed in air from solution, providing an appealing alternative to chemically reactive low–work function metals. Their use can pave the way to simplified manufacturing of low-cost and large-area organic electronic technologies.
TL;DR: An autonomous DNA nanorobot capable of transporting molecular payloads to cells, sensing cell surface inputs for conditional, triggered activation, and reconfiguring its structure for payload delivery is described.
Abstract: We describe an autonomous DNA nanorobot capable of transporting molecular payloads to cells, sensing cell surface inputs for conditional, triggered activation, and reconfiguring its structure for payload delivery. The device can be loaded with a variety of materials in a highly organized fashion and is controlled by an aptamer-encoded logic gate, enabling it to respond to a wide array of cues. We implemented several different logical AND gates and demonstrate their efficacy in selective regulation of nanorobot function. As a proof of principle, nanorobots loaded with combinations of antibody fragments were used in two different types of cell-signaling stimulation in tissue culture. Our prototype could inspire new designs with different selectivities and biologically active payloads for cell-targeting tasks.
TL;DR: More than 70% of all massive stars will exchange mass with a companion, leading to a binary merger in one-third of the cases, greatly exceed previous estimates and imply that binary interaction dominates the evolution of massive stars, with implications for populations ofmassive stars and their supernovae.
Abstract: The presence of a nearby companion alters the evolution of massive stars in binary systems, leading to phenomena such as stellar mergers, x-ray binaries, and gamma-ray bursts. Unambiguous constraints on the fraction of massive stars affected by binary interaction were lacking. We simultaneously measured all relevant binary characteristics in a sample of Galactic massive O stars and quantified the frequency and nature of binary interactions. More than 70% of all massive stars will exchange mass with a companion, leading to a binary merger in one-third of the cases. These numbers greatly exceed previous estimates and imply that binary interaction dominates the evolution of massive stars, with implications for populations of massive stars and their supernovae.
TL;DR: High-throughput sequencing revealed that inflammation modifies gut microbial composition in colitis-susceptible interleukin-10–deficient (Il10−/−) mice, suggesting that in mice, colitis can promote tumorigenesis by altering microbial composition and inducing the expansion of microorganisms with genotoxic capabilities.
Abstract: Inflammation alters host physiology to promote cancer, as seen in colitis-associated colorectal cancer (CRC). Here, we identify the intestinal microbiota as a target of inflammation that affects the progression of CRC. High-throughput sequencing revealed that inflammation modifies gut microbial composition in colitis-susceptible interleukin-10-deficient (Il10(-/-)) mice. Monocolonization with the commensal Escherichia coli NC101 promoted invasive carcinoma in azoxymethane (AOM)-treated Il10(-/-) mice. Deletion of the polyketide synthase (pks) genotoxic island from E. coli NC101 decreased tumor multiplicity and invasion in AOM/Il10(-/-) mice, without altering intestinal inflammation. Mucosa-associated pks(+) E. coli were found in a significantly high percentage of inflammatory bowel disease and CRC patients. This suggests that in mice, colitis can promote tumorigenesis by altering microbial composition and inducing the expansion of microorganisms with genotoxic capabilities.
TL;DR: Operation of the rechargeable Li-O2 battery depends critically on repeated and highly reversible formation/decomposition of lithium peroxide (Li2O2) at the cathode upon cycling, and it is shown that this process is possible with the use of a dimethyl sulfoxide electrolyte and a porous gold electrode.
Abstract: The rechargeable nonaqueous lithium-air (Li-O(2)) battery is receiving a great deal of interest because, theoretically, its specific energy far exceeds the best that can be achieved with lithium-ion cells. Operation of the rechargeable Li-O(2) battery depends critically on repeated and highly reversible formation/decomposition of lithium peroxide (Li(2)O(2)) at the cathode upon cycling. Here, we show that this process is possible with the use of a dimethyl sulfoxide electrolyte and a porous gold electrode (95% capacity retention from cycles 1 to 100), whereas previously only partial Li(2)O(2) formation/decomposition and limited cycling could occur. Furthermore, we present data indicating that the kinetics of Li(2)O(2) oxidation on charge is approximately 10 times faster than on carbon electrodes.
TL;DR: An easily fabricated, transparent, and oil-rebounding superamphiphobic coating is designed, based on low-energy surfaces and roughness on the nano- and micrometer scales.
Abstract: Coating is an essential step in adjusting the surface properties of materials. Superhydrophobic coatings with contact angles greater than 150° and roll-off angles below 10° for water have been developed, based on low-energy surfaces and roughness on the nano- and micrometer scales. However, these surfaces are still wetted by organic liquids such as surfactant-based solutions, alcohols, or alkanes. Coatings that are simultaneously superhydrophobic and superoleophobic are rare. We designed an easily fabricated, transparent, and oil-rebounding superamphiphobic coating. A porous deposit of candle soot was coated with a 25-nanometer-thick silica shell. The black coating became transparent after calcination at 600°C. After silanization, the coating was superamphiphobic and remained so even after its top layer was damaged by sand impingement.
TL;DR: The opportunities for diverting existing residual biomass—the by-products of present agricultural and food-processing streams—to this end are highlighted.
Abstract: Most of the carbon-based compounds currently manufactured by the chemical industry are derived from petroleum. The rising cost and dwindling supply of oil have been focusing attention on possible routes to making chemicals, fuels, and solvents from biomass instead. In this context, many recent studies have assessed the relative merits of applying different dedicated crops to chemical production. Here, we highlight the opportunities for diverting existing residual biomass--the by-products of present agricultural and food-processing streams--to this end.
Max Planck Society1, Massachusetts Institute of Technology2, Harvard University3, University of California, Berkeley4, University of Washington5, Bilkent University6, Chinese Academy of Sciences7, University of California, Santa Cruz8, University of Arizona9, Russian Academy of Sciences10, Howard Hughes Medical Institute11
TL;DR: The genomic sequence provides evidence for very low rates of heterozygosity in the Denisova, probably not because of recent inbreeding, but instead because of a small population size, and illuminates the relationships between humans and archaics, including Neandertals, and establishes a catalog of genetic changes within the human lineage.
Abstract: We present a DNA library preparation method that has allowed us to reconstruct a high-coverage (30×) genome sequence of a Denisovan, an extinct relative of Neandertals. The quality of this genome allows a direct estimation of Denisovan heterozygosity indicating that genetic diversity in these archaic hominins was extremely low. It also allows tentative dating of the specimen on the basis of “missing evolution” in its genome, detailed measurements of Denisovan and Neandertal admixture into present-day human populations, and the generation of a near-complete catalog of genetic changes that swept to high frequency in modern humans since their divergence from Denisovans.
TL;DR: Here, it is shown that despite their widespread use, Rmerge values are poorly suited for determining the high-resolution limit and that current standard protocols discard much useful data, and a statistic is introduced that estimates the correlation of an observed data set with the underlying (not measurable) true signal.
Abstract: In macromolecular x-ray crystallography, refinement R values measure the agreement between observed and calculated data. Analogously, R(merge) values reporting on the agreement between multiple measurements of a given reflection are used to assess data quality. Here, we show that despite their widespread use, R(merge) values are poorly suited for determining the high-resolution limit and that current standard protocols discard much useful data. We introduce a statistic that estimates the correlation of an observed data set with the underlying (not measurable) true signal; this quantity, CC*, provides a single statistically valid guide for deciding which data are useful. CC* also can be used to assess model and data quality on the same scale, and this reveals when data quality is limiting model improvement.
TL;DR: The findings suggest that most human variation is rare, not shared between populations, and that rare variants are likely to play a role in human health, and show that large sample sizes will be required to associate rare variants with complex traits.
Abstract: As a first step toward understanding how rare variants contribute to risk for complex diseases, we sequenced 15,585 human protein-coding genes to an average median depth of 111× in 2440 individuals of European (n = 1351) and African (n = 1088) ancestry. We identified over 500,000 single-nucleotide variants (SNVs), the majority of which were rare (86% with a minor allele frequency less than 0.5%), previously unknown (82%), and population-specific (82%). On average, 2.3% of the 13,595 SNVs each person carried were predicted to affect protein function of ~313 genes per genome, and ~95.7% of SNVs predicted to be functionally important were rare. This excess of rare functional variants is due to the combined effects of explosive, recent accelerated population growth and weak purifying selection. Furthermore, we show that large sample sizes will be required to associate rare variants with complex traits.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present stretchable and printable semiconductors and electronic circuits capable of providing good performance when stretched, compressed, flexed, or otherwise deformed.
Abstract: The present invention provides stretchable, and optionally printable, semiconductors and electronic circuits capable of providing good performance when stretched, compressed, flexed or otherwise deformed. Stretchable semiconductors and electronic circuits of the present invention preferred for some applications are flexible, in addition to being stretchable, and thus are capable of significant elongation, flexing, bending or other deformation along one or more axes. Further, stretchable semiconductors and electronic circuits of the present invention may be adapted to a wide range of device configurations to provide fully flexible electronic and optoelectronic devices.
TL;DR: A strategy to expand the pore aperture of metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) into a previously unattained size regime (>32 angstroms) is reported, as evidenced by their permanent porosity and high thermal stability (up to 300°C).
Abstract: We report a strategy to expand the pore aperture of metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) into a previously unattained size regime (>32 angstroms). Specifically, the systematic expansion of a well-known MOF structure, MOF-74, from its original link of one phenylene ring (I) to two, three, four, five, six, seven, nine, and eleven (II to XI, respectively), afforded an isoreticular series of MOF-74 structures (termed IRMOF-74-I to XI) with pore apertures ranging from 14 to 98 angstroms. All members of this series have noninterpenetrating structures and exhibit robust architectures, as evidenced by their permanent porosity and high thermal stability (up to 300°C). The pore apertures of an oligoethylene glycol–functionalized IRMOF-74-VII and IRMOF-74-IX are large enough for natural proteins to enter the pores.
TL;DR: How previously isolated lines of work can be connected are reviewed, it is concluded that many critical transitions (such as escape from the poverty trap) can have positive outcomes, and how the new approaches to sensing fragility can help to detect both risks and opportunities for desired change.
Abstract: Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line of work is revealing fundamental architectural features that may cause ecological networks, financial markets, and other complex systems to have tipping points. Another field of research is uncovering generic empirical indicators of the proximity to such critical thresholds. Although sudden shifts in complex systems will inevitably continue to surprise us, work at the crossroads of these emerging fields offers new approaches for anticipating critical transitions.
TL;DR: A new method, based on nonlinear state space reconstruction, that can distinguish causality from correlation is introduced, and extends to nonseparable weakly connected dynamic systems (cases not covered by the current Granger causality paradigm).
Abstract: Identifying causal networks is important for effective policy and management recommendations on climate, epidemiology, financial regulation, and much else. We introduce a method, based on nonlinear state space reconstruction, that can distinguish causality from correlation. It extends to nonseparable weakly connected dynamic systems (cases not covered by the current Granger causality paradigm). The approach is illustrated both by simple models (where, in contrast to the real world, we know the underlying equations/relations and so can check the validity of our method) and by application to real ecological systems, including the controversial sardine-anchovy-temperature problem.