Showing papers in "SocArXiv in 2020"

Face masks for the public during Covid-19: an appeal for caution in policy

Abstract: As the Covid-19 crisis deepens, some researchers have argued for the widespread routine use of face masks in community settings, despite acknowledged gaps in the evidence base for the effectiveness of such a measure. We argue that such calls are premature, and risk neglecting important potential harms and negative consequences, known and unknown. We identify potential unintended consequences at multiple levels, from individual-behavioural to macrosocial, and suggest that it is far from clear that the benefits of widespread uptake of face masks, whether encouraged or enforced by public authorities, outweigh the downsides. Finally, we make the case for caution in communicating unequivocal messages about the scientific evidence for face mask use to policy, practitioner and public audiences, given continued scientific disagreement on the question.

COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock

Abstract: We develop several pieces of evidence about the reallocative effects of the COVID-19 shock on impact and over time. First, the shock caused 3 to 4 new hires for every 10 layoffs from March 1 to mid-May 2020. Second, we project that one-third or more of layoffs during this period are permanent in the sense that job losers won’t return to their old jobs at their previous employers. Third, firm-level forecasts at a one-year horizon imply rates of expected job and sales reallocation that are 2 to 5 times larger from April to June 2020 than before the pandemic. Fourth, full days working from home will triple from 5 percent of all workdays in 2019 to more than 15 percent after the pandemic ends. We also document pandemic-induced job gains at many firms and a sharp rise in cross-firm equity return dispersion in reaction to the pandemic. After developing the evidence, we consider implications for the economic outlook and for policy. Unemployment benefit levels that exceed worker earnings, policies that subsidize employee retention irrespective of the employer’s commercial outlook, and barriers to worker mobility and business formation impede reallocation responses to the COVID-19 shock.

Residential housing segregation and urban tree canopy in 37 US Cities

Abstract: Redlining was a racially discriminatory housing policy established by the federal Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) during the 1930s. For decades, redlining limited access to homeownership and wealth creation among racial minorities, contributing to a host of adverse social outcomes, including high unemployment, poverty, and residential vacancy, that persist today. While the multigenerational socioeconomic impacts of redlining are increasingly understood, the impacts on urban environments and ecosystems remains unclear. To begin to address this gap, we investigated how the HOLC policy administered 80 years ago may relate to present-day tree canopy at the neighborhood level. Urban trees provide many ecosystem services, mitigate the urban heat island effect, and may improve quality of life in cities. In our prior research in Baltimore, MD, we discovered that redlining policy influenced the location and allocation of trees and parks. Our analysis of 37 metropolitan areas here shows that areas formerly graded D, which were mostly inhabited by racial and ethnic minorities, have on average ~23% tree canopy cover today. Areas formerly graded A, characterized by U.S.-born white populations living in newer housing stock, had nearly twice as much tree canopy (~43%). Results are consistent across small and large metropolitan regions. The ranking system used by Home Owners’ Loan Corporation to assess loan risk in the 1930s parallels the rank order of average percent tree canopy cover today.

Inequality in homeschooling during the Corona crisis in the Netherlands. First results from the LISS Panel

Abstract: The outbreak of the Corona virus has led to unprecedented measures in education. From March 16, all schools in the Netherlands are closed, and children must keep up with their schoolwork from home. Parents are expected to take a crucial role in this “homeschooling”: they are primarily responsible for ensuring that their children follow the curriculum. In this article I report the first results of a module in the LISS Panel that was designed to map how parents school their children in primary and secondary education. Data on a nationally representative sample of 1,318 children in primary and secondary education were gathered in April. The results show marked differences between social groups. Whereas all parents find it important that their children keep up with the schoolwork, children from advantaged backgrounds receive much more parental support and have more resources (e.g., own computer) to study from home. Differences in parental support are driven by the ability to help: parents with a higher education degree feels themselves much capable to help their children with schoolwork than lower educated parents. Parents also report that schools provide more extensive distant schooling for children in the academic track in secondary education (vwo) than for children in the pre-vocational track (vmbo). Finally, there is a clear gender gap: parents feel much more capable to support their daughters than their sons. These initial findings provide clear indications that the school shutdown in the Netherlands is likely to have strong effects on the inequality in educational opportunities.

Learning inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract: Suspension of face-to-face instruction in schools during the COVID-19 pandemic has led to concerns about consequences for student learning. So far, data to study this question have been limited. Here we evaluate the effect of school closures on primary school performance using exceptionally rich data from the Netherlands (n≈350,000). The Netherlands represents a best-case scenario with a relatively short lockdown (8 weeks) and a high degree of technological preparedness. We use the fact that national exams took place before and after lockdown, and compare progress during this period to the same period in the three previous years using a difference-in-differences design. Our results reveal a learning loss of about 3 percentile points or 0.08 standard deviations. These results remain robust when balancing on the estimated propensity of treatment and using maximum entropy weights, or with fixed-effects specifications that compare students within the same school and family. Losses are up to 55% larger among students from less-educated homes. Investigating mechanisms, we find that most of the effect reflects the cumulative impact of knowledge learned rather than transitory influences on the day of testing. The average learning loss is equivalent to a fifth of a school year, nearly exactly the same period that schools remained closed. These results imply that students made little or no progress whilst learning from home, and suggest much larger losses in countries less prepared for remote learning.

Can a COVID-19 Vaccine Live up to Americans’ Expectations? A Conjoint Analysis of how Vaccine Characteristics Influence Vaccination Intentions

Abstract: Objective: A vaccine for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) could prove critical in establishing herd immunity. While past work has documented the prevalence and correlates of vaccine refusal, I assess how a less explored topic -- properties of vaccines themselves (e.g., national origin, efficacy, risk of side effects) -- might influence vaccination intentions. This information can help public health officials preempt differential vaccine demand, and inform health communication campaigns that encourage vaccine uptake. Rationale: Previous research suggests that Americans should be more likely to intend to vaccinate if presented with a US-made vaccine that carries a low risk of minor side effects, is highly effective, is administered in just one dose, and has spent significant time in development. Methods: I administered a conjoint experiment (N = 5,940 trials) in a demographically representative survey (N = 990) of US adults to assess how variation in vaccine properties influence self-reported public vaccination intentions. Results: I find that respondents prefer vaccines that are US-made, over 90% effective, and carry a less than 1% risk of minor side effects. This is potentially problematic, as some leading vaccine candidates are produced outside the US, and may be less effective and more likely to produce minor side effects than respondents would otherwise prefer. Worryingly, intended vaccine refusal rates exceed 30% for a vaccine meeting these optimal characteristics. Encouragingly, though, Americans show no clear preference for vaccines administered in one dose, or developed in under a year, and do not appear to draw a distinction between weakened viral vs. mRNA-based vaccines. Conclusion: Americans’ preferences for a novel coronavirus vaccine may be at odds with the vaccine that ultimately hits the market, posing both policy and health communication challenges for vaccination uptake.

Travel behaviour after the pandemic: the case of Bulgaria

Abstract: The paper analyses the travel intentions of tourists in the post-pandemic world The sample includes 974 respondents from Bulgaria The findings show that most of the respondents are ready to travel within two months after travel is allowed in the country For their first trip, they will travel in the country, by their car and with their family Hygiene, disinfection and reliable health system in a destination will be important factors in travellers’ decisions Women and older respondents have higher health safety preferences than men and younger respondents

Impact of rumors or misinformation on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in social media

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has not only caused significant challenges for health system all over the globe but also fueled the surge of numerous rumors, hoaxes and misinformation, regarding etiology, outcomes, prevention, and cure of the disease. This misinformation are masking healthy behaviors and promoting erroneous practices that increase the spread of the virus and ultimately result in poor physical and mental health outcomes among individuals. Myriad incidents of mishaps caused by these rumors was reported across the world. To address this issue the frontline healthcare providers should be equipped with the most recent research findings and accurate information. The mass media, health care organization, community-based organizations, and other important stakeholders should build strategic partnerships and launch common platforms in disseminating authentic public health messages. Advanced technologies like natural language processing or data mining approaches should be applied in detection and removal online content with no scientific basis from all social media platforms. Those involved with the spread of such rumors should be brought to justice. Telemedicine based care should be established at a large scale to prevent depletion of limited resources.

COVID-19 and Social Distancing Measures in Queensland Australia Are Associated with Short-Term Decreases in Recorded Violent Crime

Abstract: Since first diagnosed in late 2019, there have been more than 4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than a quarter of a million deaths worldwide. Not since the Spanish Flu in 1918 has the world experienced such a widespread pandemic and this has motivated many countries across globe to take a series of unprecedented actions in an effort to curb the spread and impact of the virus through the adoption of unprecedented domestic and international travel restrictions as well as stay-at-home and social distancing regulations. Whether these policies have altered criminal activity is an important question. In this study, we examine officially recorded violent crime rates for the month of March and April, 2020, as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute six-month-ahead forecasts of common assault, serious assault, sexual offense and domestic violence order breach rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95\% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March and April 2020. We conclude that by the end of April, rates of common, serious and sexual assault had declined to their lowest level in a number of years, and for serious assault and sexual assault the decline was beyond statistical expectations. The rate at which domestic violence orders were breached in Queensland has remained unchanged throughout the first two months of the pandemic.

Urban nature in a time of crisis: recreational use of green space increases during the COVID-19 outbreak in Oslo, Norway

Abstract: The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has brought with it significant changes to human mobility patterns. We aimed to explore how social distancing measures affected recreational use of urban green space during the partial lockdown in Oslo, Norway. Mobile tracking data from thousands of recreationists were used to analyze high resolution spatio-temporal changes in activity. We estimated that outdoor recreational activity increased by 291% during lockdown relative to a 3-yr average for the same days. This increase was significantly greater than expected after adjusting for the prevailing weather and time of year and equates to approx. 86,000 extra activities per day over the municipality (population of 690,000). Both pedestrians (walking, running, hiking) and cyclists appeared to intensify activity on trails with higher greenviews and tree canopy cover, but with differences in response modulated by trail accessibility and social distancing preferences. The magnitude of increase was positively associated with trail remoteness, suggesting that green spaces facilitated social distancing and indirectly mitigated the spread of COVID-19. Finally, pedestrian activity increased in city parks, peri-urban forest, as well as protected areas, highlighting the importance of access to green open spaces that are interwoven within the built-up matrix. These findings shed new light on the value of urban nature as resilience infrastructure during a time of crisis. The current pandemic also reveals some important dilemmas we might face regarding green justice on the path towards urban planning for future sustainable cities.

Political and Social Correlates of Covid-19 Mortality

Abstract: Do political and social features of states help explain the evolving distribution of reported Covid-19 deaths? We identify national-level political and social characteristics that past research suggests may help explain variation in a society's ability to respond to adverse shocks. We highlight four sets of arguments---focusing on (1) state capacity, (2) political institutions, (3) political priorities, and (4) social structures---and report on their evolving association with cumulative Covid-19 deaths. After accounting for a simple set of Lasso-chosen controls, we find that measures of government effectiveness, interpersonal and institutional trust, bureaucratic corruption and ethnic fragmentation are currently associated in theory-consistent directions. We do not, however, find associations between deaths and many other political and social variables that have received attention in public discussions, such as populist governments or women-led governments. Currently, the results suggest that state capacity is more important for explaining Covid-19 mortality than government accountability to citizens, with potential implications for how the disease progresses in high-income versus low-income countries. These patterns may change over time with the evolution of the pandemic, however. A dashboard with daily updates, extensions, and code is provided at https://wzb-ipi.github.io/corona/.

Next-generation Visitation Models using Social Media to Estimate Recreation on Public Lands

Abstract: Outdoor and nature-based recreation provides countless social benefits, yet public land managers often lack information on the spatial and temporal extent of recreation activities. Social media is a promising source of data to fill information gaps because the amount of recreational use is positively correlated with social media activity. However, despite the implication that these correlations could be employed to accurately estimate visitation, there are no known transferable models parameterized for use with multiple social media data sources. This study tackles these issues by examining the relative value of multiple sources of social media in models that estimate visitation at unmonitored sites and times across multiple destinations. Using a novel dataset of over 30,000 social media posts and 286,000 observed visits from two regions in the United States, we compare multiple competing statistical models for estimating visitation. We find social media data substantially improve visitor estimates at unmonitored sites, even when a model is parameterized with data from another region. Visitation estimates are further improved when models are parameterized with on-site counts. These findings indicate that while social media do not fully substitute for on-site data, they are a powerful component of recreation research and visitor management.

Racialized Burdens: Applying Racialized Organization Theory to the Administrative State

Abstract: Administrative burdens allow a form of hidden politics to shape people’s experience of the state. But what do those politics hide? In this paper we seek to partly answer this question by developing the concept of racialized burdens. Racialized burdens are the experience of learning, compliance and psychological costs, which serve as tools to reinforce racial inequality; they are the handmaidens of the racialized state. To develop this concept, we examine the role of administrative burdens in the US state from the theoretical perspective of racialized organizations. This framework puts the focus on the effects of organizations on individuals, rather than using individual agency – of the client, or bureaucrat – as the starting point for analysis. Using examples from attempts to access citizenship rights – via immigration, voting and the social safety net – we show how burdens have historically been used to normalize and facilitate racially disparate outcomes from public organizations that promise fair and equal treatment.

COVID-19 and Violent Crime: A comparison of recorded offence rates and dynamic forecasts (ARIMA) for March 2020 in Queensland, Australia

Abstract: At the time of writing, there was 2.9 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 200,000 deaths worldwide. Not since the Spanish Flu in 1918 has the world experienced such a widespread pandemic and this has motivated many countries across globe to take a series of unprecedented actions in an effort to curb the spread and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Among these government and regulatory interventions includes unprecedented domestic and international travel restrictions as well as a raft of stay-at-home and social distancing regulations. Each has left criminologists wondering what impact this will have on crime in both the short- and long-term. In this study, we examine officially recorded violent crime rates for the month of March, 2020, as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute six-month-ahead forecasts of common assault, serious assault, sexual offence and domestic violence order breach rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95\% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March 2020. We conclude that the observed rates of reported violent offending across Queensland were not--at least not so far--significantly different from what was expected given the history of each offence series.

Understanding the Robotic Restaurant Experience: A Multiple Case Study

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to investigate the robotic restaurant experience of travellers around the world and understand the components of robotic restaurant experience. Following this aim, travellers who had experienced a robotic restaurant were purposefully selected as a sample group for the study. Since the robotic restaurants are limited around the world, multiple case study method has been chosen to gather richer data. A user-generated content technique which is a form of qualitative case study method has been benefited. The data of this study were gathered between 18-29 November 2019 from travellers’ reviews (n=587) describing experiences they had between February 2013-November 2019. The results reveal a model of components of robotic restaurant experience that include seven main themes: attraction for kids, robotic system, service quality, memorable experience, ambience related attributes, food related attributes (economic value and gastronomic aspects), and deficiencies (in robotic system, in service quality, in ambience related attributes and in food related attributes). This paper is first to investigate the robotic restaurant experience of travellers around the world. Moreover, it contributes to the research on restaurant experience and offers a model of components of the robotic restaurant experience.

Burnout Among Healthcare Providers During COVID-19 Pandemic: Challenges and Evidence-based Interventions

Abstract: Burnout is a major occupational problem among healthcare providers. During coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, the frontline health workforce is experiencing a high workload and multiple psychosocial stressors, which may affect their mental and emotional health, leading to burnout symptoms. Moreover, sleep deprivation and a critical lack of psychosocial support may aggravate such symptoms amidst COVID-19. Global evidence informs the need for adopting multipronged evidence-based approaches addressing burnout during this pandemic. Such interventions may include increasing the awareness of work-related stress and burnout, promoting mindfulness and self-care practices for promoting mental wellbeing, ensuring optimal mental health services, using digital technologies to address workplace stress and deliver mental health interventions, and improving organizational policies and practices emphasizing on addressing burnout among healthcare providers. As COVID-19 may impose unique workplace stress in addition to preexisting psychosocial burden among individuals, it is essential to prevent burnout through effective measures ensuring the mental and emotional wellbeing of healthcare providers globally.

Four Steps for the Earth: mainstreaming the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework

Abstract: The upcoming meeting of the parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the new Global Biodiversity Framework, represent an opportunity to transform humanity's relationship with nature. Restoring nature while meeting human needs requires a bold vision, but this will only succeed if biodiversity conservation can be mainstreamed in society. Here, we present an overarching framework that could support this mainstreaming: the Mitigation and Conservation Hierarchy. This novel framing places the well-established four-step Mitigation Hierarchy for mitigating and compensating the impacts of developments on biodiversity (1: Avoid, 2: Minimise, 3: Restore, 4: Offset, towards a target such as No Net Loss of biodiversity) within a broader framing that encompasses proactive conservation actions. The Mitigation and Conservation Hierarchy supports both the choice of actions to conserve and restore nature, and evaluation of the effectiveness of those actions, in a consistent manner across sectors and scales. As such it has the potential to guide actions towards a sustainable future for people and nature.

How to survey citizens’ compliance with COVID-19 public health measures? Evidence from three survey experiments

Abstract: The extent to which citizens comply with newly-enacted public health measures such as social distancing or lockdowns strongly affects the propagation of the virus and the number of deaths from COVID-19. It is however very difficult to identify non-compliance through survey research because claiming to follow the rules is socially desirable. Using three survey experiments, we examine the efficacy of different “face-saving” questions that aim to reduce social desirability in the measurement of compliance with public health measures. Our treatments soften the social norm of compliance by way of a short preamble in combination with a guilty-free answer choice making it easier for respondents to admit non-compliance. We find that self-reported non-compliance increases by up to 11 percentage points when making use of a face-saving question. Considering the current context and the importance of measuring non-compliance, we argue that researchers around the world should adopt our most efficient face-saving question.

Robots and the Gender Pay Gap in Europe

Abstract: Could robotization make the gender pay gap worse? We provide the first large-scale evidence on the impact of industrial robots on the gender pay gap using data from 20 European countries. We show that robot adoption increases both male and female earnings but also increases the gender pay gap. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we find that a ten percent increase in robotization leads to a 1.8 percent increase in the gender pay gap. These results are mainly driven by countries with high levels of gender inequality and outsourcing destination countries. We then explore the mechanisms behind this effect and find that our results can be explained by the fact that men at medium- and high-skill occupations disproportionately benefit from robotization (through a productivity effect). We rule out the possibility that our results are driven by mechanical changes in the gender composition of the workforce nor by inflows or outflows from the manufacturing sector.

A tale of two 'opens' : intersections between Free and Open Source Software and Open Scholarship

Abstract: There is no clear-cut boundary between Free and Open Source Software and Open Scholarship, and the histories, practices, and fundamental principles between the two remain complex. In this study, we ...

A post-COVID-19 model of tourism and hospitality workforce resilience

Abstract: COVID-19 is proving more disruptive to tourism and hospitality than World War II. Workers in these industries are hardest hit because few of them had continuous employment contracts before the pandemic, instead relying on non-standard and contingent arrangements including self-employment, subcontracting, and casual work. Non-standard workers typically lack entitlements such as annual, sick and carers leave. Of all hospitality workers, 65% are non-standard workers. A 25% loading on hourly wages is designed to allow them to build a safety net, but this loading is insufficient to ensure workers’ livelihoods for an extended period of time without work. This research note proposes a new post-COVID-19 model of tourism and hospitality workforce resilience.

The Wall Street Consensus

Abstract: The Wall Street Consensus (WSC) is an elaborate effort to reorganize development interventions around selling development finance to the market. The Billions to Trillions agenda, the World Bank 'Maximizing Finance for Development' or the G20 'Infrastructure as an Asset Class' all call on international development institutions and governments of poor countries to ‘escort capital’ – the trillions of institutional investors – into ‘investable development bonds’, preferably in local currency. For this, the 10 WSC commandments aim to simultaneously reorganize local financial systems around bond market-based finance and forge the de-risking state. The state derisks bond finance for institutional investors by extending guarantees and subsidies to cover (i) demand risks attached to user-fees for (PPP) infrastructure, (ii) political risk attached to policies such as nationalization, higher minimum wages and climate regulation, (iii) climate risks that may become part of regulatory frameworks as material credit risks and (iv) bond market (liquidity) risks that complicate foreign investors’ exit from development assets. The WSC narrows the scope for a green developmental state that could design a just transition to low- carbon economies.

Mapping the risk terrain for crime using machine learning

Abstract: Objectives: We illustrate how a machine learning algorithm, Random Forests, can provide accurate long-term predictions of crime at micro places relative to other popular techniques. We also show how recent advances in model summaries can help to open the ‘black box’ of Random Forests, considerably improving their interpretability. Methods: We generate long-term crime forecasts for robberies in Dallas at 200 by 200 feet grid cells that allow spatially varying associations of crime generators and demographic factors across the study area. We then show how using interpretable model summaries facilitate understanding the model’s inner workings. Results: We find that Random Forests greatly outperform Risk Terrain Models and Kernel Density Estimation in terms of forecasting future crimes using different measures of predictive accuracy, but only slightly outperform using prior counts of crime. We find different factors that predict crime are highly non-linear and vary over space. Conclusions: We show how using black-box machine learning models can provide accurate micro placed based crime predictions, but still be interpreted in a manner that fosters understanding of why a place is predicted to be risky. Data and code to replicate the results can be downloaded from https://www.dropbox.com/sh/b3n9a6z5xw14rd6/AAAjqnoMVKjzNQnWP9eu7M1ra?dl=0

The Political Scar of Epidemics

Abstract: What will be political legacy of the Coronavirus pandemic? We find that epidemic exposure in an individual's impressionable years (ages 18 to 25) has a persistent negative effect on confidence in political institutions and leaders We find similar negative effects on confidence in public health systems, suggesting that the loss of confidence in political leadership and institutions is associated with healthcare related policies at the time of the epidemic In line with this argument, our results are mostly driven by individuals who experienced epidemics under weak governments with less capacity to act against the epidemic, disappointing their citizens We provide evidence of this mechanism by showing that weak governments took longer to introduce policy interventions in response to the COVID-19 outbreak These results imply that the Coronavirus may leave behind a long-lasting political scar on the current young generation ("Generation Z")

The Long Run Evolution of Absolute Intergenerational Mobility

Abstract: This paper combines cross-sectional and longitudinal income data to present the evolution of absolute intergenerational income mobility in ten developed economies in the 20th century. Absolute mobility decreased during the second half of the 20th century in all these countries. Increasing income inequality and decreasing growth rates have contributed to the decrease. Yet, growth is the dominant contributor in most countries. We show that detailed panel data are unnecessary for estimating absolute mobility over the long run. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)

Economic Impacts of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Developing Countries

Abstract: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has critically impacted global health systems and economies, especially in developing countries. Those countries have been struggling to address the preexisting burden of diseases with limited resources, which will become even more challenging during COVID-19. The economic implications related to COVID-19 in those countries include a high cost of care, market failures in pluralistic health systems, high out-of-pocket expenses, the added burden of noncommunicable diseases, missed economic opportunities, and socioeconomic consequences like unemployment and poverty. It is essential to assess the prevalent gaps, mobilize resources, strengthen health systems financing and leadership, enhance research capacities informing evidence-based policymaking, and foster effective partnerships for addressing health and economic disparities due to COVID-19.

US Policies Increase Vulnerability of Immigrant Communities to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract: The adverse policy environment in the United States (US) has made immigrant communities particularly vulnerable to uncontrolled community spread of COVID-19. President Trump is using his emergency powers during the pandemic to push his broader agenda which includes locking down the southern US border to severely limit immigration. Immigration policies such as the ‘public charge rule’ may further disincentivize even authorized immigrants to seek care if they develop symptoms. The recently passed Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act will not provide any social safety net support to the millions of undocumented immigrants. Compounding these issues, the US economy is expected to contract substantially. Many construction, agricultural, and service workers are immigrants, and these industries will be severely impacted. The long-term impact of COVID-19 and commensurate health and economic impact on families, communities, and state and federal governments will be a topic of research for many years. Federal and state policies should pivot to find ways to improve access to healthcare for immigrants.

Property Crime during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A comparison of recorded offence rates and dynamic forecasts (ARIMA) for March 2020 in Queensland, Australia

Abstract: At the time of writing, there was 3.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 300,000 deaths worldwide. Not since the Spanish Flu in 1918 has the world experienced such a widespread pandemic and this has motivated many countries across globe to take unprecedented actions in an effort to curb the spread and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Among these government and regulatory interventions includes stringent domestic and international travel restrictions as well as a raft of stay-at-home and social distancing regulations. The scale of these containment measures has left criminologists wondering what impact this will have on crime in both the short- and long-term. In this study, we examine officially recorded property crime rates for March, 2020, as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute six-month-ahead forecasts of property damage, shop theft, other theft, burglary, fraud, and motor vehicle theft rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March 2020. We conclude that the observed rates of reported property offending across Queensland were significantly lower than expected for shop theft, other theft and credit-card fraud but statistically unchanged for property damage, burglary, and motor-vehicle theft.

Suicide of a farmer amid COVID-19 in India: Perspectives on social determinants of suicidal behavior and prevention strategies

Abstract: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has impacted not only physical health but also mental health and wellbeing globally. These impacts can be critically higher among marginalized individuals and populations like farmers in India. While most of them live in poor socioeconomic conditions, recent psychosocial challenges due to the COVID-19 lockdown had brought endless suffering in their lives. In this article, we describe a case of suicide of an Indian farmer amid COVID-19 lockdown, who had debts and could not find laborers during the lockdown leading to a helpless situation committing suicide. In India, nearly 16,500 farmers commit suicide each year, which can aggravate if psychosocial and economic challenges like COVID-19 continues to affect them. We recommend psychosocial interventions among vulnerable farmers alongside strengthening economic support and institutional measures alleviating socioeconomic challenges and minimizing disparities in social determinants of suicidal behavior to prevent suicide among Indian farmers amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 Pandemic Impacting Household Food Dynamics: A Cross-National Comparison of China and the U.S

Abstract: This cross-national survey-based study examined in real time how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted food-centric matters in 1,732 Chinese and 1,547 U.S. households during the stay-at-home directives. Both cohorts reported increased efficiency in use of food, families spending more time cooking and eating together, and more prudent use of food with less waste. Food purchasing patterns shifted from frequent trips to the store to dramatic increases in online ordering. A small proportion (11% Chinese, 2% U.S. respondents) reported clinically significant weight gains of >4.5 kg. Household food insecurity worsened, with large increases in people worrying about or experiencing food shortage. Collective grocery-shopping experience by survey respondents indicated that the functional stability of food supply systems remained steady. All food types were somewhat available, except for noticeably higher prices widely reported by the Chinese cohort. This study offers insights into future food patterns and sheds light on long-term questions for additional research about how people make decisions and food behavioral changes at times of crisis and the consequences thereafter.