Showing papers in "Social Science Research Network in 1991"

Growth in Cities

Abstract: Recent theories of economic growth, including Romer (1986), Porter (1989) and Jacobs (1969), have stressed the role of technological spillovers in generating growth. Because such knowledge spillovers are particularly effective in cities, where communication between people is more extensive, data on the growth of industries in different cities allows us to test some of these theories. Using a new data set on the growth of large industries in 170 U.S. cities between 1956 and 1987, we find that local competition and urban variety, but not regional specialization, encourage employment growth in industries. The evidence suggests that important knowledge spillovers might be between, rather than within industries, consistent with the theories of Jacobs (1969).

Firm Resources and Sustained Competitive Advantage

Abstract: Explores the link between a firm's resources and its sustained competitive advantage. For purposes of this analysis, a firm is considered to have a sustained competitive advantage when it is implementing a value creating strategy that no competitor is implementing and when these competitors are unable to duplicate the benefits of this strategy. Strategic resources are assumed to be both heterogeneous and immobile. Value, rareness, imitability, and substitutability are considered in evaluating how useful these firms' resources are for generating sustained competitive advantage. Using the framework developed, three different applications are considered: strategic planning, information processing, and positive reputations. This framework for evaluating sustained competitive advantage can also be used to examine the relationship between strategic management and other disciplines including social welfare, organization theory and behavior, and firm endowments. This analysis leads to the conclusion that firms cannot expect to purchase sustained competitive advantage on the open market, but rather, these firms need to look to resources that are rare, imperfectly imitable, and non-substitutable resources already controlled by the firms. (SRD)

The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1987

Abstract: The Penn World Table displays a set of national accounts economic time series covering many countries. Its expenditure entries are denominated in a common set of prices in a common currency so that real quantity comparisons can be made, both between countries and over time. It also provides information about relative prices within and between countries, as well as demographic data and capital stock estimates. This updated, revised, and expanded Mark 5 version of the table includes more countries, years, and variables of interest to economic researchers. The Table is available on personal computer diskettes and through BITNET.

Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets

Abstract: The benefits of international diversification have been recognized for decades. In spite of this, most investors hold nearly all of their wealth in domestic assets. In this paper, we construct new estimates of the international equity portfolio holdings of investors in the U.S., Japan, and Britain. More than 98% of the equity portfolio of Japanese investors is held domestically; the analogous percentages are 94% for the U.S., and 82% for Britain. We use a simple model of investor preferences and behavior to show that current portfolio patterns imply that investors in each nation expect returns in their domestic equity market to be several hundred basis points higher than returns in other markets. This lack of diversification appears to be the result of investor choices, rather than institutional constraints.

No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns

Abstract: It is sometimes argued that an increase in stock market volatility raises required stock returns, and thus lowers stock prices. This paper modifies the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) model of returns to allow for this volatility feedback effect. The resulting model is asymmetric, because volatility feedback amplifies large negative stock returns and dampens large positive returns, making stock returns negatively skewed and increasing the potential for large crashes. The model also implies that volatility feedback is more important when volatility is high. In U.S. monthly and daily data in the period 1926-88, the asymmetric model fits the data better than the standard GARCH model, accounting for almost half the skewness and excess kurtosis of standard monthly GARCH residuals. Estimated volatility discounts on the stock market range from 1% in normal times to 13% after the stock market crash of October 1987 and 25% in the early 1930's. However volatility feedback has little effect on the unconditional variance of stock returns.

Multilayer feedforward networks with non-polynomial activation functions can approximate any function

Abstract: Several researchers characterized the activation functions under which multilayer feedforwardnetworks can act as universal approximators. We show that all the characterizationsthat were reported thus far in the literature ark special cases of the following general result:a standard multilayer feedforward network can approximate any continuous functionto any degree of accuracy if and only if the network's activation functions are not polynomial.We also emphasize the important role of the threshold, asserting that without it thelast theorem doesn't hold.

How Computers Have Changed the Wage Structure: Evidence from Microdata, 1984-1989

Abstract: This paper examines whether employees who use a computer at work earn a higher wage rate than otherwise similar workers who do not use a computer at work. The analysis primarily relies on data from the Current Population Survey and the High School and Beyond Survey. A variety of statistical models are estimated to try to correct for unobserved variables that might be correlated with both job-related computer use and earnings. The estimates suggest that workers who use computers on their job earn roughly a 10 to 15 percent higher wage rate. In addition, the estimates suggest that the expansion in computer use in the l980s can account for between one-third and one-half of the observed increase in the rate of return to education, Finally, occupations that experienced greater growth in computer use between 1984 and 1989 also experienced above average wage growth.

Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage and Economic Growth

Abstract: The role of agricultural productivity in economic development is addressed in a two-sector model of endogenous growth in which a) preferences are non-homothetic and the income elasticity of demand for the agricultural good is less than unitary, and b) the engine of growth is learning-by-doing in the manufacturing sector. For the closed economy case, the model predicts a positive link between agricultural productivity and economic growth and thus provides a formalization of the conventional wisdom, which asserts that agricultural revolution is a precondition for industrial revolution. For the open economy case, however, the model predicts a negative link; that is, an economy with a relatively unproductive agricultural sector experiences faster and accelerating growth. The result suggests that the openness of an economy should be an important factor when planning development strategy and predicting growth performance.

Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Interference and Measurement

Abstract: Alternative ways of conducting inference and measurement for long-horizon forecasting are explored with an application to dividend yields as predictors of stock returns. Monte Carlo analysis indicates that the Hansen and Hodrick (1980) procedure is biased at long horizons, but the alternatives perform better. These include an estimator derived under the null hypothesis as in Richardson and Smith (1989), a reformulation of the regression as in Jegadeesh (1990), and a vector autoregression (VAR) as in Campbell and Shiller (1988), Kandel and Stambaugh (1988), and Campbell (1991). The statistical properties of long-horizon statistics generated from the VAR indicate interesting patterns in expected stock returns.

What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns

Abstract: This paper uses a log-linear asset pricing framework and a vector autoregressive model to break down movements in stock and bond returns into changes in expectations of future stock dividends, inflation, short-term real interest rates, and excess returns on stocks and bonds. In monthly postwar U.S. data, excess stock returns are found to be driven largely by news about future excess stock returns, while excess 10-year bond returns are driven largely by news about future inflation. Real interest rate changes have little impact on either stock or 10-year bond returns, although they do affect the short-term nominal interest rate and the slope of the term structure. These findings help to explain why postwar excess stock and bond returns have been almost uncorrelated.

The Company You Keep: The Effects of Family and Neighborhood on Disadvantaged Youths

Abstract: We examine the effects of family background variables and neighborhood peers on the behaviors of inner-city youths in a tight labor market using data from the 1989 NBER survey of youths living in low-income Boston neighborhoods. We find that family adult behaviors are strongly related to analogous youth behaviors. The links between the behavior of older family members and youths are important for criminal activity, drug and alcohol use, childbearing out of wedlock, schooling, and church attendance. We also find that the behaviors of neighborhood peers appear to substantially affect youth behaviors in a manner suggestive of contagion models of neighborhood effects. Residence in a neighborhood in which a large proportion of other youths are involved in crime is associated with a substantial increase in an individual's probability of the being involved in crime. Significant neighborhood peer effects are also apparent for drug and alcohol use, church attendance, and the propensity of youths to be out of school and out of work. Our results indicate that family and peer influences both operate in manner such that "like begets like."

A Test of the Free Cash Flow Hypothesis: The Case of Bidder Returns

Abstract: The free cash flow hypothesis advanced by Jensen (1988) states that managers endowed with free cash flow will invest it in negative net present value (NPV) projects rather than pay it out to shareholders. Jensen defines free cash flow as cash flow left after the firm has invested in all available positive NPV projects. In this paper, we test this hypothesis on a sample of large investments made by firms, namely decisions to acquire control of other firms through tender offers.

Workings of a City: Location, Education, and Production

Abstract: We examine the implications of local externalities in human capital investment for the size and composition of the productive labor force. The model links residential choice, skills acquisition, and production in a city composed of several communities. Peer effects induce self-segregation by occupation, whereas efficiency may require identical communities. Even when some asymmetry is optimal, equilibrium segregation can cause entire 'ghettos" to drop out of the labor force. Underemployment is more extensive. the easier it is for high-skill workers to isolate themselves from others. When perfect segregation is feasible, individual incentives to pursue it are self-defeating, and lead instead to a shutdown of the productive sector.

A Theory of Workouts and the Effects of Reorganization Law

Abstract: We present a model of a financially distressed firm with outstanding bank debt and public debt. Coordination problems among public debtholders introduce investment inefficiencies in the workout process. In most cases, these inefficiencies are not mitigated by the ability of firms to buy back their public debt with cash and other securities--the only feasible way that firms can restructure their public debt. We show that Chapter 11 reorganization law increases investment and we characterize the types of corporate financial structures for which this increased investment enhances efficiency.

Is Inequality Harmful for Growth? Theory and Evidence

Abstract: Is inequality harmful for growth? We suggest that it is. To summarize our main argument: in a society where distributional conflict is more important, political decisions are more likely to produce economic policies that allow private individuals to appropriate less of the returns to growth promoting activities, such as accumulation of capital and productive knowledge. In the paper we first formulate a theoretical model that formally captures this idea. The model has a politico-economic equilibrium, which determines a sequence of growth rates depending on structural parameters, political institutions, and initial conditions. We then confront the testable empirical implications with two sets of data. A first data set pools historical evidence-which goes back to the mid 19th century-from the US and eight European countries. A second data set contains post-war evidence from a broad cross-section of developed and less developed countries. In both samples we find a statistically significant and quantitatively important negative relation between inequality and growth. After a comprehensive sensitivity analysis, we conclude that our findings are not distorted by measurement error, reverse causation, hetroskedasticity, or other econometric problems.

Standard Risk Aversion

Abstract: This paper introduces the concept of standard risk aversion. A von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function has standard risk aversion if any risk makes a small reduction in wealth more painful (in the sense of an increased reduction in expected utility) also makes any undesirable, independent risk more painful. It is shown that, given monotonicity and concavity, the combination of decreasing absolute risk aversion and decreasing absolute prudence is necessary and sufficient for standard risk aversion. Standard risk aversion is shown to imply not only Pratt and Zeckhauser's 'proper risk aversion" (individually undesirable, independent risks always being jointly undesirable) , but also that being forced to face an undesirable risk reduces the optimal investment in a risky security with and independent return. Similar results are established for the effect of broad class of increases in one risk on the desirability of (or optimal investment in) a second, independent risk.

Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers

Abstract: This paper takes a first look at investment strategies of managers of 769 pension funds, with total assets of $129 billion at the end of 1989. The data show that managers of these funds tend to oversell stocks that have performed poorly. Relative sales of losers accelerate in the fourth quarter, when funds' portfolios are closely examined by the sponsors. This result supports the view that fund managers "window dress" their portfolios to impress sponsors and suggests that managers are evaluated on their individual stock selections and not just aggregate portfolio performance.

The Health Care Quadrilemma: An Essay on Technological Change, Insurance, Quality of Care, and Cost Containment

Abstract: During the roughly four decades since the end of World War II, the health care system in the United States has experienced historically unprecedented change in three dimensions. First, new technologies have revolutionized the ways in which health care is capable of being practiced. Almost all of today's armamentarium of disease diagnosis and treatment devices and techniques were unknown 40 years ago. In the case of prescription drugs, for example, about 10 percent of the 200 largest-selling drugs are new each year; and only 25 percent of the 200 top-selling drugs in 1972 remained in the group 15 years later (David Cleeton, Valy Goepfrich, and Burton Weisbrod 1990).

School Quality and Black-White Relative Earnings: A Direct Assessment

Abstract: The average wage differential between black and white men fell from 40 percent in 1960 to 25 percent in 1980. Much of this convergence is attributable to a relative increase in the rate of return to schooling among black workers. It is widely argued that the growth in the relative return to black education reflects the dramatic improvements in the quality of black schooling over the past century. To test this hypothesis we have assembled data on three aspects of school quality -- pupil teacher ratios. annual teacher pay. and term length for black and white schools in 18 segregated states from 1915 to 1966. The school quality data are linked to estimated rates of return to education for Southern-born men from different cohorts and states. measured in 1960. 1970. and 1980. Improvements in the relative quality of black schools explain 20 percent of the narrowing of the black-white earnings gap between 1960 and 1980.

On the Labor Market Effects of Immigration and Trade

Abstract: In the 1980s, the wages and employment rates of less-skilled Americans fell relative to those of more-skilled workers. This paper examines the contribution of the continuing inflow of less-skilled immigrants and the increasing importance of imports in the U.S. economy to these trends. Our empirical evidence indicates that both trade and immigration augmented the nation's supply of less-skilled workers, particularly workers with less than a high school education. By 1988, trade and immigration increased the effective supply of high school dropouts by 28 percent for men and 31 percent for women. We estimate that from thirty to fifty percent of the approximately 10 percentage point decline in the relative weekly wage of high school dropouts between 1980 and 1988 can be attributed to the trade and immigration flows. In addition, our analysis suggests that from 15 to 25 percent of the 11 percentage point rise in the earnings of college graduates relative to high school graduates from 1980 to 1985 can be attributed to the massive increase in the trade deficit over the same period, but that the effects of trade on the college/high school wage differential diminished with improvements in the trade balance during the late 1980s.

New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism

Abstract: The question of how monetary policy affects the real economy is a perennial one in macroeconomics. Over the past several decades, however, the focus of the debate has changes. Today it is taken for granted that monetary policy affects aggregate demand; what is debated is why prices do not adjust fully to compensate for shifts in demand. Thirty years ago, in contrast, sluggish price adjustment was taken for granted; what was debated was the magnitude of the effect of monetary policy on aggregate demand and the channels through which that effect occurred. This paper returns to the subject of that older literature. A fresh look at the way monetary policy affects aggregate demand is particularly timely in light of recent developments in theoretical analyses of credit markets. Work over the past 15 years has suggested that imperfections are a central feature of capital markets, and that these imperfections can cause credit allocation to be made largely on the basis of quantity rationing rather than price adjustment and can create a special role for lending by financial intermediaries. This work has also shown that credit market imperfections can have important consequences for macroeconomic fluctuations in general and for the way monetary policy is transmitted to aggregate demand in particular.

The Significance of Technical Trading-Rule Profits in the Foreign Exchange Market: a Bootstrap Approach

Abstract: In this paper, we present new evidence on the profitability and statistical significance of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market. We utilize a new data base, currency futures contracts for the period 1976-1990, and we implement a new testing procedure based on bootstrap methodology. Using this approach, we generate thousands of new exchange rate series constructed by random reordering of each original series. We then measure the profitability of the technical rules for each new series. The significance of the profits in the original series is assessed by comparison to the empirical distribution of results derived from the thousands of randomly generated series. Overall, our results suggest that simple technical trading rules have very often led to profits that are highly unusual. Splitting the entire 15-year sample period into three 5-year periods reveals that on average the profitability of some trading rules declined in the 1986-1990 period although profits remained positive (on average) and significant in many cases.

Ethnic Minorities and Mental Health

Abstract: The sociological study of the mental health of racial-ethnic minorities addresses issues of core theoretical and empirical concern to the discipline. This review summarizes current knowledge about minority mental health and identifies conceptual and methodological problems that continue to confront research in this field. First, a critique is presented of epidemiological approaches to the definition and measurement of mental health in general, and minority mental health in particular, including an overview of the most frequently used symptom scales and diagnostic protocols. Next, the most important research studies conducted over the past two decades are summarized and discussed, and comparisons of prevalence rates and correlates of depressive symptomatology among Black, Hispanic, Asian, and American Indian ethnic groups are provided. Following the overview of descriptive epidemiological findings, some key analytic issues surrounding the study of stress, adaptation and minority mental health are considered. Finally, we propose various recommendations for future research.

Continuous Versus Episodic Change: The Impact of Civil Rights Policy on the Economic Status of Blacks

Abstract: This paper examines the available evidence on the causes of black economic advance in order to assess the contribution of federal policy. Over the period 1920-1990, there were only two periods of relative black economic improvement -- during the 1940s and in the decade following the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the voting Rights Act of 1965, and the institution of the government contracts compliance program. Black migration from the South, a traditional source of economic gains for blacks, almost stopped at about this same time, and recent evidence on the impact of black schooling gains indicates that educational gains cannot explain the magnitude of black economic progress beginning in the mid-1960s.

The Search for R&D Spillovers

Abstract: R&D spillovers are, potentially, a major source of endogenous growth in various recent "New Growth Theory" models. This paper reviews the basic model of R&D spillovers and then focuses on the empirical evidence for their existence and magnitude. It reviews the older empirical literature with special attention to the econometric difficulties of actually coming up with convincing evidence on this topic. Taken individually,, many of the studies are flawed and subject to a variety of reservations, but the overall impression remains that R&D spillovers are both prevalent and important.

R&D Productivity: A Survey of Econometric Studies at the Firm Level

Abstract: This paper surveys econometric studies investigating the relationship between R&D and productivity at the firm level and assesses the results obtained so far and some of the problems encountered. The findings reviewed fall naturally into three major categories: based on the cross-sectional or time-series dimensions of the data and specified in terms of the elasticity of R&D or the rate of return to R&D. In view of the problems involved in modeling the effects of R&D on productivity and in measuring the appropriate variables, it is an agreeable surprise that most studies have managed to produce statistically significant and frequently plausible estimates. However, many of the current studies are not fully comparable and their results still leave much to be desired. The task of achieving progress is an arduous one.

The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: New Answers to an Old Question

Abstract: The early 1980s were a time of large budget deficits and increasing ratios of government debt to GNP for many of the OECD countries (Table 1), prompting concerns that the fiscal policies which led to such outcomes were not only unwise, but also unsustainable. Assessing wisdom is not easy, however, and surely not an exercise which can or should be reduced to the construction and examination of a few indicators. Assessing sustainability, on the other hand, is a much less ambitious task and one for which indicators are well suited. The purpose of this paper is to derive, construct and examine the behaviour of such indicators for the recent past and for the present.

Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity

Abstract: We propose and solve an optimizing model which explains counterintuitive effects of fiscal policy in terms of expectations. If government spending follows an upward-trending stochastic process which the public believes may fall sharply when it reaches specific "target points," then optimizing consumption behavior and simple budget constraint arithmetic imply a nonlinear relationship between private consumption and government spending. This theoretical relation is consistent with the experience of several countries.

A Critique of 'Our Constitution is Color-Blind'

Abstract: This article critically examines the United States Supreme Court’s legal doctrine of "color-blind constitutionalism" Professor Gotanda argues that the United States Supreme Court’s adherence to color-blind constitutionalism disregards the subtleties and nuances of race, ignores institutional racism and contributes to racial subjugation Five themes related to color-blind constitutionalism are identified and discussed: (i) the distinction between private and public conduct, (ii) the nonrecognition of race (whereby a person’s race is identified but discounted or not considered), (iii) racial categories (race as a social construct), (iv) the Supreme Court's focus on "formal-race" and its unconnectedness to social reality and (v) racial social change (discussing assimilation versus diversity) This article concludes with a discussion on alternatives to color-blind constitutionalism

A Theory of Debt Based on the Inalienability of Human Capital

Abstract: Consider an entrepreneur who needs to raise funds from an investor, but cannot commit not to withdraw his human capital from the project. The possibility of a default or quit puts an upper bound on the total future indebtedness from the entrepreneur to the investor at any date. We characterize the optimal repayment path and show how it is affected both by the maturity structure of the project return stream and by the durability and specificity of project assets. Our results are consistent with the conventional wisdom about what determines the maturity structure of (long-term) debt contracts.