Showing papers in "Social Science Research Network in 1995"

The Impact of Human Resource Management Practices on Turnover, Productivity, and Corporate Financial Performance

Abstract: This paper comprehensively examined the linkages between systems of High Performance Work Practices and firm performance. Results based on a national sample of nearly one thousand firms indicate that these practices have an economically and statistically significant impact on both intermediate outcomes (turnover and productivity) and short- and long-term measures of corporate financial performance. Support for the predictions that the impact of High Performance Work Practices is in part contingent on their interrelationships and links with competitive strategy was limited.

The Limits of Arbitrage

Abstract: In traditional models, arbitrage in a given security is performed by a large number of diversified investors taking small positions against its mispricing. In reality, however, arbitrage is conducted by a relatively small number of highly specialized investors who take large positions using other people's money. Such professional arbitrage has a number of interesting implications for security pricing, including the possibility that arbitrage becomes ineffective in extreme circumstances, when prices diverge far from fundamental values. The model also suggests where anomalies in financial markets are likely to appear, and why arbitrage fails to eliminate them.

Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission

Abstract: The 'credit channel' theory of monetary policy transmission holds that informational frictions in credit markets worsen during tight- money periods. The resulting increase in the external finance premium--the difference in cost between internal and external funds-- enhances the effects of monetary policy on the real economy. We document the responses of GDP and its components to monetary policy shocks and describe how the credit channel helps explain the facts. We discuss two main components of this mechanism, the balance-sheet channel and the bank lending channel. We argue that forecasting exercises using credit aggregates are not valid tests of this theory.

Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth

Abstract: One of the surprising features of modern economic growth is that economies with abundant natural resources have tended to grow less rapidly than natural-resource-scarce economies. In this paper we show that economies with a high ratio of natural resource exports to GDP in 1971 (the base year) tended to have low growth rates during the subsequent period 1971-89. This negative relationship holds true even after controlling for variables found to be important for economic growth, such as initial per capita income, trade policy, government efficiency, investment rates, and other variables. We explore the possible pathways for this negative relationship by studying the cross-country effects of resource endowments on trade policy, bureaucratic efficiency, and other determinants of growth. We also provide a simple theoretical model of endogenous growth that might help to explain the observed negative relationship.

Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation

Abstract: We propose a nonparametric method for automatically selecting the number of autocovariances to use in computing a heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. For a given kernel for weighting the autocovariances, we prove that our procedure is asymptotically equivalent to one that is optimal under a mean squared error loss function. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that our procedure performs tolerably well, although it does result in size distortions.

Firm Performance and Mechanisms to Control Agency Problems between Managers and Shareholders

Abstract: This paper examines the use of seven mechanisms to control agency problems between managers and shareholders. These mechanisms are: shareholdings of insiders, institutions, and large blockholders; use of outside directors; debt policy; the managerial labor market; and the market for corporate control. We present direct empirical evidence of interdependence among these mechanisms in a large sample of firms. This finding suggests that cross-sectional OLS regressions of firm performance on single mechanisms may be misleading. Indeed, we find relations between firm performance and four of the mechanisms when each is included in a separate OLS regression. These are insider shareholdings, outside directors, debt, and corporate control activity. Importantly, the effect of insider shareholdings disappears when all of the mechanisms are included in a single OLS regression, and the effects of debt and corporate control activity also disappear when estimations are made in a simultaneous systems framework. Together, these findings are consistent with optimal use of each control mechanism except outside directors.

Techniques for Verifying the Accuracy of Risk Measurement Models

Abstract: Risk exposures are typically quantified in terms of a "value at risk" (VaR) estimate. A VaR estimate corresponds to a specific critical value of a portfolio's potential one-day profit and loss distribution. Given their functions both as internal risk management tools and as potential regulatory measures of risk exposure, it is important to assess and quantify the accuracy of an institution's VaR estimates. This study considers the formal statistical procedures that could be used to assess the accuracy of VaR estimates. The analysis demonstrates that verification of the accuracy of tail probability value estimates becomes substantially more difficult as the cumulative probability estimate being verified becomes smaller. In the extreme, it becomes virtually impossible to verify with any accuracy the potential losses associated with extremely rare events. Moreover, the economic importance of not being able to reliably detect an inaccurate model or an under-reporting institution potentially becomes much more pronounced as the cumulative probability estimate being verified becomes smaller. It does not appear possible for a bank or its supervisor to reliably verify the accuracy of an institution's internal model loss exposure estimates using standard statistical techniques. The results have implications both for banks that wish to assess the accuracy of their internal risk measurement models as well as for supervisors who must verify the accuracy of an institution's risk exposure estimate reported under an internal models approach to model risk.

Wellsprings of Knowledge: Building and Sustaining the Sources of Innovation

Abstract: Since firms are knowledge institutions, or well-springs of knowledge, they compete on the basis of creating and using knowledge; managing a firm's knowledge assets is as important as managing its finances. A firm's expertise is acquired by employees and embodied in machines, software, and institutional procedures. Management of its core or strategic capabilities determines a firm's competitiveness and survival. Through decision-making and action, core technological capabilities can be built and changed. The author proposes to (1) help managers think about the knowledge-building consequences of their technology-related decisions and (2) provide academics materials usable in training managers to think about knowledge building. All aspects of product or process development must be viewed in terms of knowledge management and growth. Knowledge cannot be managed the same as tangible assets; to manage knowledge assets, one must understand them. Successful adaptation is an incremental re-direction of skills and knowledge. A set of four core technological competencies bestows competitive advantage on firms; these are the firm's skill and knowledge bases, physical technical systems, managerial systems, and values and norms that create a firm's special advantage. These may reside at any line-of-business level. Core capabilities must be managed to foster, not inhibit flow of critical knowledge. There is a dilemma: core capabilities are also core rigidities when carried to an extreme or when the competitive environment changes. Limited problem solving, inability to innovate, limited experimentation, and screening out new knowledge can undermine the development of competencies. Four key activities create and sustain flows of knowledge and direct them into core capabilities: (1) Integrated, shared creative problem solving across cognitive and functional barriers - shared problem solving achieves new level of creativity when managed for "creative abrasion." (2) Implementation and integration of new internally generated methodologies and technical processes and tools. These can move beyond merely increasing efficiency when managed for learning. (3) Formal and informal experimentation. Experimental activities create new core competencies that move companies purposefully forward and are guards against rigidity. (4) Importing and absorbing technological knowledge expertise from outside the firm. Technology alliances, for example, develop outwise wellsprings of knowledge (identify, access, use, and manage knowledge from external sources). Well managed, these enable companies to tap knowledge wellsprings consistently and continuously. Many dysfunctional attitudes and behaviors within firms inhibit these activities. These activities are oriented to present, internal, future, and external domains, and involve managers at all company levels and all functions. Specific managerial behaviors that build (or undermine) capabilities are identified. Managers must design an environment that encourages enactments of these four activities to create an organization that learns. Thereby, organizations and managers can create an atmosphere for continuous renewal; application to commercial ends is as important as managing it internally. The growth and nurturing of core capabilities (expressed in successful product development) requires learning from the market (understanding user needs), or feeding market information into new-product development. Identifying new product opportunities depends on empathic design, actual observed customer behavior, and technological capabilities. Technology transfer can also be understood as transferring technological capabilities to a new site, which is examined at four levels (assembly or turnkey, adaptation and localization, system, redesign, product design). Transfer of production development capability is illustrated with the cas

Inflation and Economic Growth

Abstract: Data for around 100 countries from 1960 to 1990 are used to assess the effects of inflation on economic performance. If a number of country characteristics are held constant, then regression results indicate that the impact effects from an increase in average inflation by 10 percentage points per year are a reduction of the growth rate of real per capita GDP by 0.2-0.3 percentage points per year and a decrease in the ratio of investment to GDP by 0.4-0.6 percentage points. Since the statistical procedures use plausible instruments for inflation, there is some reason to believe that these relations reflect causal influences from inflation to growth and investment. However, statistically significant results emerge only when high- inflation experiences are included in the sample. Although the adverse influence of inflation on growth looks small, the long-term effects on standards of living are substantial. For example, a shift in monetary policy that raises the long-term average inflation rate by 10 percentage points per year is estimated to lower the level of real GDP after 30 years by 4-7%, more than enough to justify a strong interest in price stability.

Crime and Social Interactions

Abstract: The high degree of variance of crime rates across space (and across time) is one of the oldest puzzles in the social sciences (see Quetelet (1835)). Our empirical work strongly suggests that this variance is not the result of observed or unobserved geographic attributes. This paper presents a model where social interactions create enough covariance across individuals to explain the high cross- city variance of crime rates. This model provides a natural index of social interactions which can compare the degree of social interaction across crimes, across geographic 1units and across time. Our index gives similar results for different data samples and suggests that the amount of social interactions are highest in petty crimes (such as larceny and auto theft), moderate in more serious crimes (assault, burglary and robbery) and almost negligible in murder and rape. The index of social interactions is also applied to non-criminal choices and we find that there is substantial interaction in schooling choice.

Why Do Companies Go Public? An Empirical Analysis

Abstract: This paper empirically analyzes the determinants of an initial public offering (IPO) and the consequences of this decision on a company's investment and financial policy. We compare both the ex ante and the ex post characteristics of IPOs with those of a large sample of privately held companies of similar size. We find that (i) the likelihood of an IPO is positively related to the market-to-book ratio prevailing in the relevant industrial sector and to a company's size, (ii) IPOs are followed by an abnormal reduction in profitability, (iii) the new equity capital raised upon listing is not used to finance subsequent investment and growth, but to reduce leverage, (iv) going public reduces the cost of bank credit; (v) it is often associated by equity sales by controlling shareholders, and is followed by a higher turnover of control than for other companies.

Managerial Entrenchment and Capital Structure Decisions

Abstract: We test the prediction that leverage is inversely associated with managerial entrenchment. We examine leverage levels and year-to-year changes for several hundred firms between 1984 and 1991. We find that leverage levels are positively related to CEO stock ownership and CEO stock option holdings, and negatively related to CEO tenure and board of directors size. While generally consistent with less entrenched CEOs pursuing more leverage, these results are subject to alternative interpretations. We therefore analyze year-to-year changes in leverage around exogenous shocks to corporate governance variables. We find that leverage increases after unsuccessful tender offers and â¬Sforcedâ¬? CEO replacements, and under certain conditions after the arrival of major stockholders. These relations have greater magnitude when the sample is restricted to low-leverage firms, even when 80% of firms are defined as low-leverage. The results are consistent with decreases in entrenchment leading to increases in leverage, and with the majority of firms having less debt than optimal.

Foreign Direct Investment and Relative Wages: Evidence from MexicoAS Maquiladoras

Abstract: In this paper, we examine the increase in the relative wages of skilled workers in Mexico during the 1980s. We argue that rising wage inequality in Mexico is linked to capital inflows from abroad. The effect of these capital inflows, which correspond to an increase in outsourcing by multinationals from the United States and other Northern countries, is to shift production in Mexico towards relatively skill-intensive goods thereby increasing the relative demand for skilled labor. We study the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the share of skilled labor in total wages in Mexico using state-level data on two-digit industries from the Industrial Census for the period 1975 to 1988. We measure the state- level growth in FDI using data on the regional activities of foreign- owned assembly plants. We find that growth in FDI is positively correlated with the relative demand for skilled labor. In the regions where FDI has been most concentrated, growth in FDI can account for over 50 percent of the increase in the skilled labor share of total wages that occurred during the late 1980s.

Normative Influences on Impulsive Buying Behavior

Abstract: Although consumer researchers have investigated impulse buying for nearly 50 years, almost no research has empirically examined its normative aspects. This article presents conceptual and empirical evidence that consumers' normative evaluations (i.e., judgments about the appropriateness of engaging in impulse buying behavior) moderate the relationship between the impulse buying trait and consumers' buying behaviors. Specifically, the relationship between the buying impulsiveness trait and related buying behaviors is significant only when consumers believe that acting on impulse is appropriate. The findings from two studies across student and retail customer samples converge and support the hypothesized moderating role of consumers' normative evaluations.

Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects

Abstract: We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced to change their participation status by changing the value of the instrument. Finally we derive the probability limit of the standard IV estimator under these conditions. It is seen to be a weighted average of local average treatment effects.

The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence

Abstract: Forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests from the current floating exchange rate era. This paper surveys advances in this area since the publication of Hodrick's (1987) survey. It documents that the change in the future exchange rate is generally negatively related to the forward discount. Properties of the expected forward forecast error are reviewed. Issues such as the relation of uncovered interest parity to real interest parity, and the implications of uncovered interest parity for cointegration of various quantities are discussed. The modeling and testing for risk premiums is surveyed. Included in this area are tests of the consumption CAPM, tests of the latent variable model, and portfolio-balance models of risk premiums. General equilibrium models of the risk premium are examined and their empirical implications explored. The survey does not cover the important areas of learning and peso problems, tests of rational expectations based on survey data, or the models of irrational expectations and speculative bubbles.

How Wide is the Border

Abstract: Failures of the law of one price explain much of the variation in real C.P.I. exchange rates. We use C.P.I. data for U.S. cities and Canadian cities for 14 categories of consumer prices to examine the nature of the deviations from the law of one price. The distance between cities explains a significant amount of the variation in the prices of similar goods in different cities. But, the variation of the price is much higher for two cities located in different countries than for two equidistant cities in the same country. By our most conservative measure, crossing the border adds as much to the volatility of prices as adding 2500 miles between cities.

The Growing Importance of Cognitive Skills in Wage Determination

Abstract: Using data from two longitudinal surveys of American high school seniors, we show that basic cognitive skills had a larger impact on wages for 24-year-old men and women in 1986 than in 1978. For women, the increase in the return to cognitive skills between 1978 and 1986 accounts for all of the increase in the wage premium associated with post-secondary education. We also show that high school seniors' mastery of basic cognitive skills had a much smaller impact on wages two years after graduation than on wages six years after graduation.

Leverage, Investment, and Firm Growth

Abstract: We show that there is a negative relation between leverage and future growth at the firm level and, for diversified firms, at the segment level. Further, this negative relation between leverage and growth holds for firms with low Tobin's q, but not for high-q firms or firms in high-q industries. Therefore, leverage does not reduce growth for firms known to have good investment opportunities, but is negatively related to growth for firms whose growth opportunities are either not recognized by the capital markets or are not sufficiently valuable to overcome the effects of their debt overhang.

The Economics of Networks

Abstract: We analyze the salient features of networks and point out the similarities between the economic structure of networks and the structure of vertically related industries. The analysis focuses on positive consumption and production externalities, commonly called network externalities. We discuss their sources and their effects on pricing and market structure. We distinguish between results that do not depend on the underlying industry microstructure (the macro approach) and those that do (the micro approach). We analyze the issues of compatibility, coordination to technical standards, interconnection and interoperability, and their effects on pricing and quality of services and on the value of network links in various ownership structures. We also briefly discuss the issue of interconnection fees for bottleneck.

Path Dependence, Lock-In, and History

Abstract: Do economies and markets make remediable errors in the choice of products? Does the economy "lock-in" to these incorrect choices even when the knowledge that these choices are incorrect is readily available? The literature of path dependence may be understood to argue that these lock-ins and errors occur, even in a world characterized by voluntary decisions and individually maximizing behavior. In this paper we examine path dependence and illustrate three different forms of the term, each having a different implication regarding market errors and lock-in. Two of these meanings are common in the economy but provide no support for the claims that remediable errors occur. The third meaning, which does imply irremediable error, we show to be based on restrictive assumptions that are likely to be overcome in the real world. The analysis is illustrated by examining the market's choice of videorecorder formats.

Universities as a Source of Commercial Technology: A Detailed Analysis of University Patenting 1965-1988

Abstract: This paper explores changes in university patenting behavior between 1965 and 1988. We show that university patents have increased 15-fold while real university research spending almost tripled. The causes of this increase are unclear, but may include increased focus on commercially relevant technologies, increased industry funding of university research, a 1980 change in federal law that facilitated patenting of results from federally funded research, and the widespread creation of formal technology licensing offices at universities. Up until approximately the mid-1980s, university patents were more highly cited, and were cited by more technologically diverse patents, than a random sample of all patents. This difference is consistent with the notion that university inventions are more important and more basic than the average invention. The differences between the two groups disappeared, however, in the middle part of the 1980s, partly due to a decline in the citation rates for all universities, and partly due to an increasing share of patents going to smaller institutions, whose patents are less highly cited throughout this period. Moreover at both large and small institutions there was a large increase in the fraction of university patents receiving zero citations. Our results suggest that the rate of increase of important patents from universities is much less than the overall rate of increase of university patenting in the period covered by our data.

Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth

Abstract: After excluding countries with high-inflation crises - periods when annual inflation is above 40 percent - the data reveal no evidence of a consistent relationship between growth and inflation, at any frequency. But growth does tend to fall sharply during discrete crises of high inflation and to recover surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. Perhaps inflation crises are purely cyclical, or perhaps in the long run they have a favorable purgative effect. Recent literature suggests that long-run averages of growth and inflation are only weakly correlated and that such correlation is not robust to the exclusion of observations of extreme inflation. Including time series panel data has improved matters, but an aggregate parametric approach remains inconclusive. Bruno and Easterly propose a nonparametric definition of high-inflation crises as periods when annual inflation is above 40 percent. Excluding countries with high-inflation crises, they find no evidence of a consistent relationship between growth and inflation, at any frequency. They do find that growth falls sharply during discrete crises of high inflation, then recovers surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. The fall in growth during a crisis and the recovery of growth after the crisis tend to average out to nearly zero (even slightly above zero); hence no robust cross-section correlation. Their findings could be consistent either with trend stationarity of output (in which inflation crises are purely cyclical phenomena) or with models in which crises have a favorable long-run purgative effect. Their findings do not support the view that reducing high inflation carries heavy output costs in the short to medium run. This paper - a joint product of the Office of the Vice President, Development Economics, and the Macroeconomics and Growth Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to examine the determinants of economic growth.

The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates

Abstract: This paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets. Contrary to popular wisdom, industrialized-country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack. But if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets, the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange-rate peg can be very high. The dynamic interplay between credibility and commitment is illustrated by the 1992 Swedish and British crises and the 1994-95 Mexican collapse. We also discuss the small number of successful fixers.

Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach

Abstract: This paper presents a semiparametric procedure to analyze the effects of institutional and labor market factors on recent changes in the U.S. distribution of wages. The effects of these factors are estimated by applying kernel density methods to appropriately 'reweighted' samples. The procedure provides a visually clear representation of where in the density of wages these various factors exert the greatest impact. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we find, as in previous research, that de-unionization and supply and demand shocks were important factors in explaining the rise in wage inequality from 1979 to 1988. We find also compelling visual and quantitative evidence that the decline in the real value of the minimum wage explains a substantial proportion of this increase in wage inequality, particularly for women. We conclude that labor market institutions are as important as supply and demand considerations in explaining changes in the U.S. distribution of wages from 1979 to 1988.

Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit

Abstract: In a series of major expansions starting in 1987, the earned income tax credit (EITC) has become a central part of the federal government's anti-poverty strategy. In this paper, we examine the impact of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA86), which included an expansion of the EITC, on labor force participation and hours of work. The expansion of the credit affected an easily identifiable group, single women with children, but is predicted to have had no effect on another group, single women without children. Other features of TRA86, such as the increase in the value of dependent exemptions and the large increase in the standard deduction for head of household filers, are predicted by economic theory to have reinforced the impact of the EITC on the relative labor supply outcomes of single women with and without children. We therefore compare the change in labor supply of single women with children to the change in labor supply of single women without children. We find that between 1984-1986 and 1988-1989 single women with children increased their labor force participation by 1.4 percentage points (from a base of 73.1 percent) relative to single women without children. We explore a number of possible explanations for this finding and conclude that the 1987 expansion of the EITC and the other provisions of TRA86 are the most likely explanations. We find no effect of the EITC expansion on the hours of work of single women with children who were already in the labor force. Compared to other elements of the welfare system, the EITC appears to produce little distortion of work incentives.

Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives

Abstract: This paper examines the agency conflict between mutual fund investors and mutual fund companies. Investors would like the fund company to use its judgement to maximize risk-adjusted fund returns. A fund company, however, in its desire to maximize its value as a concern has an incentive to take actions which increase the inflow of investment. We use a semiparametric model to estimate the shape of the flow-performance relationship for a sample of growth and growth and income funds observed over the 1982-1992 period. The shape of the flow-performance relationship creates incentives for fund managers to increase or decrease the riskiness of the fund which are dependent on the fund's year-to-date return. Using a new dataset of mutual fund portfolios which includes equity portfolio holdings for September and December of the same year, we show that mutual funds do alter their portfolio riskiness between September and December in a manner consistent with these risk incentives.

Good Timing: CEO Stock Option Awards and Company News Announcements

Abstract: This paper proposes and implements a new method for investigating whether CEOs influence the terms of their own compensation. I analyze the dates of 591 stock option awards to CEOs of Fortune 500 companies in 1992 and 1993, finding that the timing of awards coincides with favorable movements in companies stock prices even though the awards remain secret for many months. Patterns of corporate earnings and dividend announcements suggest strongly that CEOs receive stock option awards shortly before favorable corporate news and that awards are delayed until after the release of adverse news. Analysis of abnormal volume data does not support the possibility that insider trading based on knowledge of the option awards can explain the stock price gains. The findings imply that top mangers can affect their companies processes for awarding stock options and exploit this influence in order to increase compensation.

Collaborative Communication in Interfirm Relationships: Moderating Effects of Integration and Control

Abstract: Governance strategies, such as integration or control, structure and regulate the conduct of parties in exchange relationships; as such, they serve to constrain the latitude of the decision making of channel partners Similarly, collaborative communication can be used to create an atmosphere of mutual support, thereby creating volitional compliance between partners The authors develop a model that addresses the interrelationships of governance and communication and examine the effects of collaborative communication on channel outcomes (the dealer's perceptions of commitment to, satisfaction with, and coordination of activities with a focal manufacturer) across various levels of integration and control Based on survey data collected from a national sample of computer dealers, the findings indicate that when levels of integration or manufacturer control are high, the effect of collaborative communication on outcomes is weaker than when integration or control is low

Which Moments to Match

Abstract: We describe an intuitive, simple, and systematic approach to generating moment conditions for GMM estimation of the parameters of a structural model. The idea is to use the score of a density that has an analytic expression to define the GMM criterion. The auxiliary model that generates the score should closely approximate the distribution of the observed data but is not required to nest it. If the auxiliary model nests the structural model then the estimator is as efficient as maximum likelihood. The estimator is advantageous when expectations under a structural model can be computed by simulation, by quadrature, or by analytic expressions but the likelihood cannot be computed easily.