Showing papers in "Solar Physics in 2001"

Plasma beta above a solar active region: rethinking the paradigm

Abstract: In this paper, we present a model of the plasma beta above an active region and discuss its consequences in terms of coronal magnetic field modeling. The β-plasma model is representative and derived from a collection of sources. The resulting β variation with height in the solar atmosphere is used to emphasize that the assumption that the magnetic pressure dominates over the plasma pressure must be carefully employed when extrapolating the magnetic field. This paper points out (1) that the paradigm that the coronal magnetic field can be constructed from a force-free magnetic field must be used in the correct context, since the force-free region is sandwiched between two regions which have β>1, (2) that the chromospheric Mg ii–C iv magnetic measurements occur near the β-minimum, and (3) that, moving from the photosphere upwards, β can return to ∼1 at relatively low coronal heights, e.g., R∼1.2 R s.

Flare Plasma Cooling from 30 MK down to 1 MK modeled from Yohkoh, GOES, and TRACE observations during the Bastille Day Event (14 July 2000)

Abstract: We present an analysis of the evolution of the thermal flare plasma during the 14 July 2000, 10 UT, Bastille Day flare event, using spacecraft data from Yohkoh/HXT, Yohkoh/SXT, GOES, and TRACE. The spatial structure of this double-ribbon flare consists of a curved arcade with some 100 post-flare loops which brighten up in a sequential manner from highly-sheared low-lying to less-sheared higher-lying bipolar loops. We reconstruct an instrument-combined, average differential emission measure distribution dEM(T)/dT that ranges from T=1 MK to 40 MK and peaks at T 0=10.9 MK. We find that the time profiles of the different instrument fluxes peak sequentially over 7 minutes with decreasing temperatures from T≈30 MK to 1 MK, indicating the systematic cooling of the flare plasma. From these temperature-dependent relative peak times t peak(T) we reconstruct the average plasma cooling function T(t) for loops observed near the flare peak time, and find that their temperature decrease is initially controlled by conductive cooling during the first 188 s, T(t)∼[1+(t/τcond)]−2/7, and then by radiative cooling during the next 592 s, T(t)∼[1−(t/τrad)]3/5. From the radiative cooling phase we infer an average electron density of n e=4.2×1011 cm−3, which implies a filling factor near 100% for the brightest observed 23 loops with diameters of ∼1.8 Mm that appear simultaneously over the flare peak time and are fully resolved with TRACE. We reproduce the time delays and fluxes of the observed time profiles near the flare peak self-consistently with a forward-fitting method of a fully analytical model. The total integrated thermal energy of this flare amounts to E thermal=2.6×1031 erg.

Catastrophic cooling and high-speed downflow in quiescent solar coronal loops observed with TRACE

Abstract: Observations with the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer, TRACE, show frequent catastrophic cooling and evacuation of quiescent solar coronal loops over active regions. We analyze this process using image sequences taken in passbands showing plasma from a few million degrees down to less than 100 000 K, taken at a cadence of 90 s. The loop evacuation often occurs after plasma high in the corona has cooled to transition-region or even chromospheric temperatures. The cooling loops frequently show Lyman-α and C iv emission developing initially near the loop tops; later, that cool plasma usually slides down on both sides of the loop. The relatively cool material often forms clumps that move at speeds of up to 100 km s−1. The downward acceleration is no more than 80 m s−2, less than $$\frac{1}{3}{\text{rd}}$$ of the surface gravity. Cooling appears to progress with delays of the order of up to 103 s between thin, neighboring strands within flux bundles with cross-sections of at least 1–2 Mm, so that hot and cool loops are transiently outlined at essentially the same location. The falling material at temperatures of ≲ 0.1 MK shows no evidence of loop braiding on scales above the resolution of ∼1 Mm; loop cross-sections appear independent of height. Existing numerical models suggest that the observed catastrophic loop-top cooling in non-flaring conditions can occur if the loop heating precipitously drops by 1.5 orders of magnitude or more, first and most strongly high in the corona. Using order-of-magnitude geometrical arguments, we estimate that loop bundles in the interior of an active region undergo catastrophic cooling on average once every 2 days, while in a decayed bipolar region that time interval is approximately a week.

Avalanche models for solar flares (Invited Review)

Abstract: This paper is a pedagogical introduction to avalanche models of solar flares, including a comprehensive review of recent modeling efforts and directions. This class of flare model is built on a recent paradigm in statistical physics, known as self-organized criticality. The basic idea is that flares are the result of an ‘avalanche’ of small-scale magnetic reconnection events cascading through a highly stressed coronal magnetic structure, driven to a critical state by random photospheric motions of its magnetic footpoints. Such models thus provide a natural and convenient computational framework to examine Parker's hypothesis of coronal heating by nanoflares.

The magnetic structure and generation of euv flare ribbons

Abstract: The `ribbons' of two-ribbon flares show complicated patterns reflecting the linkages of coronal magnetic field lines through the lower solar atmosphere. We describe the morphology of the EUV ribbons of the July 14, 2000 flare, as seen in SOHO, TRACE, and Yohkoh data, from this point of view. A successful co-alignment of the TRACE, SOHO/MDI and Yohkoh/HXT data has allowed us to locate the EUV ribbon positions on the underlying field to within ∼ 2′′, and thus to investigate the relationship between the ribbons and the field, and also the sites of electron precipitation. We have also made a determination of the longitudinal magnetic flux involved in the flare reconnection event, an important parameter in flare energetic considerations. There are several respects in which the observations differ from what would be expected in the commonly-adopted models for flares. Firstly, the flare ribbons differ in fine structure from the (line-of-sight) magnetic field patterns underlying them, apparently propagating through regions of very weak and probably mixed polarity. Secondly, the ribbons split or bifurcate. Thirdly, the amount of line-of-sight flux passed over by the ribbons in the negative and positive fields is not equal. Fourthly, the strongest hard X-ray sources are observed to originate in stronger field regions. Based on a comparison between HXT and EUV time-profiles we suggest that emission in the EUV ribbons is caused by electron bombardment of the lower atmosphere, supporting the hypothesis that flare ribbons map out the chromospheric footpoints of magnetic field lines newly linked by reconnection. We describe the interpretation of our observations within the standard model, and the implications for the distribution of magnetic fields in this active region.

Width Variations along Coronal Loops Observed by Trace

Abstract: We have measured width variations along coronal loops observed by TRACE in the 171, 195, and 284 A bandpasses. The loops are not significantly thicker in the middle compared to near the footpoints, and there is no correlation between the footpoint-to-midpoint expansion and the loop length. This applies to both post-flare and non-flare loops. The observations conflict with our present understanding of active region magnetic fields, and they have important implications for the structure and heating of the corona.

A Hard X-ray Two-Ribbon Flare Observed with Yohkoh/HXT

Abstract: The Yohkoh hard X-ray telescope (HXT) observed hard X-rays from the impulsive phase of a long-duration event (LDE) occurring on 14 July 2000. The Yohkoh soft X-ray telescope (SXT) and other instruments observed a large arcade, with width and length ∼30 000 km and ∼120 000 km, respectively. In hard X-rays, for the first time, a two-ribbon structure was clearly observed in the energy range above 30 keV. This result suggests that electrons are in fact accelerated in the whole system of this arcade, not merely in a particular dominant loop. We analyzed the motions of bright kernels in the two hard X-ray ribbons in detail. Assuming these bright kernels to be footpoints of newly reconnected loops, we infer from their motions that the loops reconnecting early are highly sheared, while the loops reconnecting later are less sheared. We have also analyzed the hard X-ray spectra of the two ribbons independently. At the outer edge of a ribbon, the spectrum tends to be harder than that in the inner edge. This suggests that higher-energy electrons precipitate at the footpoints of outer loops and lower ones do at those of inner loops. We discuss what kind of model can support this tendency.

Cross-Sectional Properties of Coronal Loops

Abstract: Careful examination of 43 soft X-ray loops observed by Yohkoh has revealed a number of interesting properties of the loop cross section. First, the loops tend to be only slightly (≈ 30%) wider at their midpoints than at their footpoints, implying less-than-expected expansion of the magnetic field. Second, the variation of width along each loop tends to be modest, implying that the cross section has an approximately circular shape. And third, cross-axis intensity profiles tend to be singly-peaked and simple, implying that the cross section is approximately uniformly filled on resolvable scales. We conclude that the energy which heats the plasma is either dissipated axially symmetrically on a scale equal to a loop diameter (≈ 11000 km) or else is dissipated with any spatial structure, but on a scale much smaller than a loop diameter, and then transported laterally in an axisymmetric fashion (perhaps via conduction along chaotic field lines). In their present form, none of the theoretical ideas concerning the magnetic structure and heating of loops are obviously capable of explaining all of the observed properties.

Deceleration of Coronal Mass Ejections

Abstract: Decelerated motion of 12 coronal eruptions is studied. It is found that the measured decelerations and deceleration rates depend on the events' plane-of-sky velocities and heights. The dependence of deceleration on the velocity is described better by a quadratic function then by linear fit. Results are interpreted in terms of a viscous drag. An empirical relation expressing the decrease of the drag effectiveness with the projected height is established. The interplay between the Lorentz force, viscous drag, and gravity is discussed. Several examples are considered to illustrate the relative contributions of these forces under various circumstances.

Global simulation of magnetospheric space weather effects of the Bastille Day storm

Abstract: We present results from a global simulation of the interaction of the solar wind with Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere for the Bastille Day geomagnetic storm and compare the results with data. We find that during this event the magnetosphere becomes extremely compressed and eroded, causing 3 geosynchronous GOES satellites to enter the magnetosheath for an extended time period. At its extreme, the magnetopause moves at local noon as close as 4.9 R E to Earth which is interpreted as the consequence of the combined action of enhanced dynamic pressure and strong dayside reconnection due to the strong southward interplanetary magnetic field component B z, which at one time reaches a value of −60 nT. The lobes bulge sunward and shield the dayside reconnection region, thereby limiting the reconnection rate and thus the cross polar cap potential. Modeled ground magnetic perturbations are compared with data from 37 sub-auroral, auroral, and polar cap magnetometer stations. While the model can not yet predict the perturbations and fluctuations at individual ground stations, its predictions of the fluctuation spectrum in the 0–3 mHz range for the sub-auroral and high-latitude regions are remarkably good. However, at auroral latitudes (63° to 70° magnetic latitude) the predicted fluctuations are slightly too high.

Persistent 22-year cycle in sunspot activity: evidence for a relic solar magnetic field

Abstract: We use the recently presented group sunspot number series to show that a persistent 22-year cyclicity exists in sunspot activity throughout the entire period of about 400 years of direct sunspot observations The amplitude of this cyclicity is about 10% of the present sunspot activity level A 22-year cyclicity in sunspot activity is naturally produced by the 22-year magnetic polarity cycle in the presence of a relic dipole magnetic field Accordingly, a persistent 22-year cyclicity in sunspot activity gives an evidence for the existence of such a relic magnetic field in the Sun The stable phase and the roughly constant amplitude of this cyclicity during times of very different sunspot activity level strongly support this interpretation

The Bastille day Magnetic Clouds and Upstream Shocks: Near-Earth Interplanetary Observations

Abstract: The energetic charged particle, interplanetary magnetic field, and plasma characteristics of the 'Bastille Day' shock and ejecta/magnetic cloud events at 1 AU occurring over the days 14-16 July 2000 are described. Profiles of MeV (WIND/LEMT) energetic ions help to organize the overall sequence of events from the solar source to 1 AU. Stressed are analyses of an outstanding magnetic cloud (MC2) starting late on 15 July and its upstream shock about 4 hours earlier in WIND magnetic field and plasma data. Also analyzed is a less certain, but likely, magnetic cloud (MC1) occurring early on 15 July; this was separated from MC2 by its upstream shock and many heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossings. Other HCS crossings occurred throughout the 3-day period. Overall this dramatic series of interplanetary events caused a large multi-phase magnetic storm with min Dst lower than -300 nT. The very fast solar wind speed (greater than or equal to 1100 km/s) in and around the front of MC2 (for near average densities) was responsible for a very high solar wind ram pressure driving in the front of the magnetosphere to geocentric distances estimated to be as low as approx. 5 R(sub E), much lower than the geosynchronous orbit radius. This was consistent with magnetic field observations from two GOES satellites which indicated they were in the magnetosheath for extended times. A static force free field model is used to fit the two magnetic cloud profiles providing estimates of the clouds' physical and geometrical properties. MC2 was much larger than MCI, but their axes were nearly antiparallel, and their magnetic fields had the same left-handed helicity. MC2's axis and its upstream shock normal were very close to being perpendicular to each other, as might be expected if the cloud were driving the shock at the time of observation. The estimated axial magnetic flux carried by MC2 was 52 x 10(exp 20) Mx, which is about 5 times the typical magnetic flux estimated for other magnetic clouds in the WIND data over its first 4 years and is 17 times the flux of MC1. This large flux is due to both the strong axially-directed field of MC2 (46.8 nT on the axis) and the large radius (R(sub 0) = 0.189 AU) of the flux tube. MC2's average speed is consistent with the expected transit time from a halo-CME to which it is apparently related.

Non-radial motion of eruptive filaments

Abstract: We develop a simple model to explain the non-radial motion of eruptive solar filaments under solar minimum conditions. The global magnetic field is derived from the first and third components of the spherical harmonic expansion of a magnetic scalar potential. The filament is modeled as a toroidal current located above the mid-latitude polarity inversion line. We investigate the stability of the filament against changes in the filament current and attempt to explain the non-radial motion and acceleration of the eruptive filament. We also discuss the limitations of this model.

A New Algorithm for Pattern Recognition and its Application to Granulation and Limb Faculae

Abstract: We have developed a new pattern-recognition algorithm based on multiple intensity clips which assures an optimal adaptation to the solar structure under study. The shapes found at higher clip levels are repeatedly extended to lower levels, thus filling more and more of the observed intensity contours. Additionally, at each intensity threshold new shapes, exceeding the level, are integrated. The number and height of the levels can be optimized making this `multiple level tracking' algorithm (MLT) superior to commonly used Fourier-based recognition techniques (FBR). The capability of MLT is demonstrated by application to the intensity structure of solar granulation near the disk center, both speckle reconstructed and not. Comparisons with Doppler maps prove its reliability. The granular pattern recognized by MLT differs essentially from that obtained with FBR. Elongated `snake-like' granules do not occur with MLT and, consequently, the perimeter-area distribution exhibits only a marginal `second branch' of higher fractal dimension, which dramatically diminishes the better the MLT pattern matches the granular structure. The final distribution obtained with optimized parameters has a single fractal dimension near 1.1, making the question of a `critical size', a `second branch', and the often discussed dimension of 4/3; highly questionable. This result is equally obtained from application of MLT to the corresponding Doppler velocity map of granular up-flows. In contrast, the pattern of down-flows contains some elongated `snake-like' structures with higher fractal dimension. We also use the new algorithm to recognize speckle-reconstructed limb faculae, which MLT separates from their granular surroundings, and compare both, granules and faculae, using large statistical samples. The facular grains near cosθ=57° exhibit a slightly different ellipticity than the (geometrically foreshortened) adjacent granules. However, small facular grains are more round than small granules and larger grains are more similar to granules.

Dynamics of electron beams in the inhomogeneous solar corona plasma

Abstract: Dynamics of a spatially-limited electron beam in the inhomogeneous solar corona plasma is considered in the framework of weak turbulence theory when the temperature of the beam significantly exceeds that of surrounding plasma. The numerical solution of kinetic equations manifests that generally the beam accompanied by Langmuir waves propagates as a beam-plasma structure with a decreasing velocity. Unlike the uniform plasma case the structure propagates with the energy losses in the form of Langmuir waves. The results obtained are compared with the results of observations of type III bursts. It is shown that the deceleration of type III sources can be explained by corona inhomogeneity. The frequency drift rates of the type III sources are found to be in good agreement with the numerical results of beam dynamics.

Spatial distribution and temporal evolution of coronal bright points

Abstract: We present a statistical study of the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of coronal bright points (BPs) by analyzing a continuous set of observations of a quiet-Sun region of size 780′′ × 780′′ over a period of 55 hours The main data set consists of observations taken by EIT (the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope on board the SOHO spacecraft) in its Fe xii 195 A channel which is sensitive to coronal plasma of temperature ∼ 15 MK; we also use soft X-ray observations by SXT (Soft X-ray Telescope on the Yohkoh spacecraft) which is sensitive to coronal plasma of temperature > 25 MK The flux histogram for all pixels in EIT 195 A images indicates that BPs have a power law flux distribution extending down to a level of 3σ (σ, root mean square deviation) above the average flux of the quiet Sun, while the bulk quiet Sun has a Gaussian-like flux distribution Using a 3σ intensity threshold, we find a spatial density of one BP per 90 Mm × 90 Mm area, or equivalently 800 BPs for the entire solar surface at any moment The average size of a BP is 110 Mm2 About 14% of the quiet-Sun area is covered by bright points and the radiation from all BPs is only about 5% of that from the whole quiet Sun Thus, the atmosphere above quiet-Sun regions is not energetically dominated by BPs During the 55-hour period of EIT observations, we identify 48 full-life-cycle BPs which can be tracked from their initial appearance to final disappearance The average lifetime of these BPs is 20 hours, which is much longer than the previously reported 8 hours based on Skylab X-ray observations (Golub et al, 1974) We also see shorter life times and smaller numbers of BPs in the soft X-ray images than in the EIT 195 A observations, suggesting that the temperature of BPs is generally below 2 MK

Rates of Flaring in Individual Active Regions

Abstract: Rates of flaring in individual active regions on the Sun during the period 1981–1999 are examined using United States Air Force/Mount Wilson (USAF/MWL) active-region observations together with the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalog. Of the flares in the catalog above C1 class, 61.5% are identified with an active region. Evidence is presented for obscuration, i.e. that the increase in soft X-ray flux during a large flare decreases the likelihood of detection of soft X-ray events immediately following the large flare. This effect means that many events are missing from the GOES catalog. It is estimated that in the absence of obscuration the number of flares above C1 class would be higher by (75±23) %. A second observational selection effect – an increased tendency for larger flares to be identified with an active region – is also identified. The distributions of numbers of flares produced by individual active regions and of mean flaring rate among active regions are shown to be approximately exponential, although there are excess numbers of active regions with low flare numbers and low flaring rates. A Bayesian procedure is used to analyze the time history of the flaring rate in the individual active regions. A substantial number of active regions appear to exhibit variation in flaring rate during their transit of the solar disk. Examples are shown of regions with and without rate variation, illustrating the different distributions of times between events (waiting-time distributions) that are observed. A piecewise constant Poisson process is found to provide a good model for the observed waiting-time distributions. Finally, applications of analysis of the rate of flaring to understanding the flare mechanism and to flare prediction are discussed.

Solar Feature Identification using Contrasts and Contiguity

Abstract: We present a new technique for the rapid, automatic identification of solar features on full-disk photometric images. The technique permits the detection of features whose contrasts are only slightly above the noise level. Contrast and contiguity criteria are used to identify pixels belonging to an individual feature. The criteria used are simple and objective, and do not require one to guess at the contrast distribution of the features. Comparison of Ca ii K images with magnetograms shows excellent agreement between the identified features and observed magnetic features. In addition, we can now reliably identify faculae on continuum images. Since this technique can be rapidly applied to a large set of images, it allows us to compile a database of the physical and photometric properties of individual solar features.

Large-scale magnetic field and sunspot cycles

Abstract: H magnetic synoptic charts of the Sun are processed for 1915 - 1999 and the spherical harmonics are calculated. It is shown that the polarity distribution of the magnetic field on H charts is similar to the polarity distribution of the Stanford magnetic field observations during 1975 - 1999. The index of activity of the large-scale magnetic field A.t/, representing the sum of the intensities of dipole and octupole components, is introduced. It is shown that the cycle of the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun precedes on the average by 5.5 years the sunspot activity cycle, W.t/. This means that the weak large-scale magnetic fields of the Sun do not result from decay and diffusion of strong fields from active regions as it is supposed in all modern theories of the solar cycle. On the basis of the new data the intensity of the current solar cycle 23 is predicted and some aspects of the theory of the solar cycle are discussed. The origin and role of the large-scale magnetic field in the organization of the general solar magnetism and its connection with sunspot activity is a key question for understanding the 22-yr cycle of magnetic activity. Conspicuous features of solar activity are the cyclic occurrences in the solar atmosphere of pairs (or groups) of sunspots with different polarity and with strong fields up to 5 kG. The polarity of these pairs has different orientation in both hemispheres and after a minimum of activity they reverse polarity. The large-scale magnetic field regions of the Sun are another remarkable magnetic manifestation. It changes polarity too, but at a maximumof sunspot activity. Many modern theories of a solar cycle consider the weak large-scale magnetic field as the result of breakup of strong fields of active regions and their drift to poles, i.e., as a secondary product of the activity of strong magnetic fields. The underlying idea is that the supergranular motions, differential rotation, and merid- ional flow transform the magnetic fields of active regions to form the large-scale field patterns (Babcock, 1961; Leighton, 1964; DeVore, Sheeley, and Boris, 1984; Wang, Nash, and Sheeley, 1989). However, many questions, e.g., concerning the duration of the solar cycle and magnetic field reversals of the Sun, remain open.

The magnetic structure of a coronal x-ray bright point

Abstract: Brown, D.S., Parnell, C.E., Deluca, E., McMullen, R. and Golub, L., 2001, The magnetic structure of a coronal X-ray bright point, Solar Physics, 201, 305-321.

Observations of the 24 September 1997 Coronal Flare Waves

Abstract: We report coincident observations of coronal and chromospheric ‘flare wave’ transients in association with a flare, large-scale coronal dimming, metric radio activity and a coronal mass ejection. The two separate eruptions occurring on 24 September 1997 originate in the same active region and display similar morphological features. The first wave transient was observed in EUV and Ha data, corresponding to a wave disturbance in both the chromosphere and the solar corona, ranging from 250 to approaching 1000 km s−1 at different times and locations along the wavefront. The sharp wavefront had a similar extent and location in both the EUV and Ha data. The data did not show clear evidence of a driver, however. Both events display a coronal EUV dimming which is typically used as an indicator of a coronal mass ejection in the inner corona. White-light coronagraph observations indicate that the first event was accompanied by an observable coronal mass ejection while the second event did not have clear evidence of a CME. Both eruptions were accompanied by metric type II radio bursts propagating at speeds in the range of 500–750 km s−1, and neither had accompanying interplanetary type II activity. The timing and location of the flare waves appear to indicate an origin with the flaring region, but several signatures associated with coronal mass ejections indicate that the development of the CME may occur in concert with the development of the flare wave.

Low-Degree Low-Order Solar p Modes As Seen By GOLF On board SOHO

Abstract: Data recovered from the GOLF experiment on board the ESA/NASA SOHO spacecraft have been used to analyze the low-order low-degree solar velocity acoustic-mode spectrum below ν=15 mHz (ie, 1≤n≤9,l≤2) Various techniques (periodogram, RLAvCS, homomorphic-deconvolution and RLSCSA) have been used and compared to avoid possible biases due to a given analysis method In this work, the acoustic resonance modes sensitive to the solar central region are studied Comparing results from the different analysis techniques, 10 modes below 15 mHz have been identified

Ace observations of the bastille day 2000 interplanetary disturbances

Abstract: We present ACE observations for the six-day period encompassing the Bastille Day 2000 solar activity. A high level of transient activity at 1 AU, including ICME-driven shocks, magnetic clouds, shock-accelerated energetic particle populations, and solar energetic ions and electrons, are described. We present thermal ion composition signatures for ICMEs and magnetic clouds from which we derive electron temperatures at the source of the disturbances and we describe additional enhancements in some ion species that are clearly related to the transient source. We describe shock acceleration of 0.3 - 2.0 MeV nucl −1 protons and minor ions and the relative inability of some of the shocks to accelerate significant energetic ion populations near 1 AU. We report the characteristics of < 20 MeV nucl −1 solar energetic ions and < 0.32 MeV electrons and attempt to relate the release of energetic electrons to particular source regions.

Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Abstract: Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain.

Evolution of Magnetic Nonpotentiality in NOAA AR 9077

Abstract: Based on photospheric vector magnetograms obtained at Huairou Solar Observing Station, we have studied the evolution of magnetic nonpotentiality in NOAA AR 9077 from 11 to 15 July 2000. We focus our analysis on the daily change of nonpotential characteristics in the photospheric magnetic field preceding the `Bastille Day' flare. We have identified the following evolving patterns: (1) The shear-angle distribution underwent dramatic change in the filament channel. At a key site of the filament environment, the magnetic shear changed sign from positive to negative. (2) The old current systems disrupted, and new but weaker systems formed before this major event. Similar changes are identified for the longitudinal current helicity. (3) The source field weakened before the flare, and the density of free magnetic energy decreased at the photospheric level. These obvious changes lasted at least nine hours before the `Bastille Day' flare, and they took place where a large amount of magnetic flux disappeared in magnetic flux cancellation. The site of dramatic changes is also found to coincide with the base of helical magnetic ropes which were seen in a 3-D force-free reconstruction. We suggest that the observed evolution of the magnetic nonpotentiality represents a continuous transportation of magnetic energy and complexity from the lower atmosphere to the corona. This transportation seems to be responsible for the energy build-up for the major flare. Moreover, the slow magnetic reconnection in the lower atmosphere, observed as magnetic flux cancellation, appears to play a key role in this energy build-up process.

Reconstruction of Wolf Sunspot Numbers on the Basis of Spectral Characteristics and Estimates of Associated Radio Flux and Solar Wind Parameters for the Last Millennium

Abstract: A reconstruction of sunspot numbers for the last 1000 years was obtained using a sum of sine waves derived from spectral analysis of the time series of sunspot number R z for the period 1700–1999. The time series was decomposed in frequency levels using the wavelet transform, and an iterative regression model (ARIST) was used to identify the amplitude and phase of the main periodicities. The 1000-year reconstructed sunspot number reproduces well the great maximums and minimums in solar activity, identified in cosmonuclides variation records, and, specifically, the epochs of the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder, and Dalton Minimums as well the Medieval and Modern Maximums. The average sunspot number activity in each anomalous period was used in linear equations to obtain estimates of the solar radio flux F 10.7, solar wind velocity, and the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field.

Topology of Magnetic Field and Coronal Heating in Solar Active Regions

Abstract: The photospheric vector magnetic fields, Hα and soft X-ray images of AR 7321 were simultaneously observed with the Solar Flare Telescope at Mitaka and the Soft X-ray Telescope of Yohkoh on October 26,1992, when there was no important activity in this region Taking the observed photospheric vector magnetic fields as the boundary condition, 3D magnetic fields above the photosphere were computed with a new numerical technique Then quasi-separatrix layers (QSLs), ie, regions where 3D magnetic reconnection takes place, were determined in the computed 3D magnetic fields Since Yohkoh data and Mitaka data were obtained in well-arranged time sequences during the day, the evolution of 3D fields, Ha features and soft X-ray features in this region can be studied in detail Through a comparison among the 3D magnetic fields, Hα features and soft X-ray features, the following results have been obtained: (a) Hα plages are associated with the portions of QSLs in the chromosphere; (b) diffuse coronal features (DCFs) and bright coronal features (BCFs) are morphologically confined by the coronal linkage of the field lines related to the QSLs; (c) BCFs are associated with a part of the magnetic field lines related to the QSLs These results suggest that as the likely places where energy release may occur by 3D magnetic reconnection, QSLs play an important role in the chromospheric and coronal heating in this active region

Simple Model of a Stochastically Excited Solar Dynamo

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the dynamical nature of the complexity observed in the time evolution of the sunspot number. We report a detailed analysis of the sunspot number time series, and use the daily records to build the phase space of the underlying dynamical system. The observed features of the phase space prompted us to describe the global behavior of the solar cycle in terms of a noise-driven relaxation oscillator. We find the equations whose solutions best fit the observed series, which adequately describe the shape of the peaks and the oscillations of the system. The system of equations obtained from this fitting procedure is shown to be equivalent to a truncation of the dynamo equations. A linear transformation maps the phase space of these equations into the phase space reconstructed from the observations. The irregularities of the solar cycle were modeled through the introduction of a stochastic parameter in the equations to simulate the randomness arising in the process of eruption of magnetic flow to the solar surface. The mean values and deviations obtained for the periods, rise times and peak values, are in good agreement with the values obtained from the sunspot time series.

Joint EUV/Radio Observations of a Solar Filament

Abstract: In this paper we compare simultaneous extreme ultraviolet (EUV) line intensity and microwave observations of a filament on the disk. The EUV line intensities were observed by the CDS and SUMER instruments on board SOHO and the radio data by the Very Large Array and the Nobeyama radioheliograph. The main results of this study are the following: (1) The Lyman continuum absorption is responsible for the lower intensity observed above the filament in the EUV lines formed in the transition region (TR) at short wavelengths. In the TR lines at long wavelengths the filament is not visible. This indicates that the proper emission of the TR at the filament top is negligible. (2) The lower intensity of coronal lines and at radio wave lengths is due to the lack of coronal emission: the radio data supply the height of the prominence, while EUV coronal lines supply the missing hot matter emission measure (EM). (3) Our observations support a prominence model of cool threads embedded in the hot coronal plasma, with a sheath-like TR around them. From the missing EM we deduce the TR thickness and from the neutral hydrogen column density, derived from the Lyman continuum and He i absorption, we estimate the hydrogen density in the cool threads.

Extrapolation of the solar magnetic field within the potential-field approximation from full-disk magnetograms

Abstract: This paper is concerned with the Laplace boundary-value problem with the directional derivative, corresponding to the specific nature of measurements of the longitudinal component of the photospheric magnetic field. The boundary conditions are specified by a distribution on the sphere of the projection of the magnetic field vector into a given direction, i.e., they exactly correspond to the data of daily magnetograms distributed across the full solar disk. It is shown that the solution of this problem exists in the form of a spherical harmonic expansion, and uniqueness of this solution is proved. A conceptual sketch of numerical determination of the harmonic series coefficients is given. The field of application of the method is analyzed with regard to the peculiarities of actual data. Results derived from calculating magnetic fields from real magnetograms are presented. Finally, we present differences in results derived from extrapolating the magnetic field from a synoptic map and a full-disk magnetogram.