Showing papers in "Southeast Asian Affairs in 1991"

Asia pacific economic co-operation (apec)

Abstract: The emergence of the new process of Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) since early 1989 has been a significant development for a vast region which accounts for almost half the world economy. The process is designed to provide an increasingly effective means of expressing the common interests of a diverse group of economies from Northeast and Southeast Asia, Australia, and New Zealand together with their major trading partners across the Pacific ? the United States and Canada. APEC and its future direction is particularly important for the ASEAN economies, who represent half of the current participants in the process. The views of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) have been important in defining the nature of the new process and its guiding principles. It provides an important forum for presenting ASEAN's economic priorities to a broader group of regional economies in a constructive, non-confrontational environment. Following a brief description of the economic setting and origins of APEC, this paper reviews developments to date and some challenges for the future. The Setting During the last thirty years, there has been a dramatic economic transformation in the Asia-Pacific region, leading to remarkable improvements in living standards and economic strength. Japan has led the way towards prosperity, but there are similar success stories with the same potential for future prosperity for Hong Kong, Singapore, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Taiwan and, more recently, for an in creasing part of Southeast Asia. The growth record of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in the decade to 1989 has also been impressive. The success of these Western Pacific economies has been based on good eco nomic management and high saving rates which allowed these economies to invest massively in human and physical capital, leading to spectacular and sustained increases in productivity. Success has also stemmed from the ability and willingness to take advantage of changing international market opportunities. But, perhaps most importantly, the rapid sustained growth of these economies has been due to a relatively open multilateral trading system which has prevailed during recent decades. While the system of international trade under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) is deficient in several important respects, it has made it possible for Japan and other Western Pacific economies to exploit their comparative advantage. Success in exporting, initially of light manufactures, followed by an

Malaysia 1990: The Election Show‑down

Abstract: In October 1990, the long awaited "show-down" elections were finally held, a year before the Parliament was legally required to be dissolved. The elections had been expected because the Prime Minister, leader of UMNO Baru (the new United Malays National Organization), felt that he needed a new mandate from the Malay community to get on with the task of governing more effectively, in view of the challenge from Semangat '46 (Spirit of'46), a splinter group from the old UMNO which claimed to be the legitimate heir. The elections in 1990 were of special significance for a variety of reasons. Firstly, it was the first time since independence that a credible opposition which could actually form a government had emerged. The multi-ethnic opposition coalition was led by prominent, "establishment" Malays that included many former Cabinet members. Two surviving Prime Ministers, former chief ministers, and members of the royal households, including a sultan, could be counted as its supporters. The opposition members could not be dismissed as mere "trouble makers" or "disloyal elements" as they had been in the past. Secondly, the opposition parties had been able to mount a co-ordinated campaign against the ruling coalition. In the past, the disparate opposition parties took each other to task as much as they attacked the government. This time, Semangat '46 allied with Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) and two other minor Muslim parties based in Kelantan to challenge UMNO in the northeastern Malay belt. In the urban centres and the west coast, Semangat '46 formed the Gagasan Rakyat Malaysia party (Malaysian People's Might) with the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and three other smaller parties to take on UMNO and its partners in the Barisan Nasional (National Front). Instead of campaigning to deny the ruling Barisan of its two-thirds majority in the national Parliament, as it had always done, the opposition shifted to the need for a two-coalition system and an alternative government. Thus, when the elections were finally called, expectations among both participants and observers were high.

Myanmar 1990: New Era or Old?

Abstract: The political impasse between an entrenched military regime and a restive civil ian opposition that followed the massive demonstrations and protests throughout Myanmar in 1988 remained unresolved at the end of 1990. Despite the holding in May of the first multi-party general election for thirty years, with victory by its most outspoken critics, the National League for Democracy (NLD), the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) government remained in an apparently unassailable position. But faced with sporadic protests and other expressions of discontent and alienation, the military's ability to develop a new and publicly accept able political order appeared uncertain. In the meantime, however, the economic reforms begun in 1988 continued to gather pace, though without the clear policy guidelines which might have restored confidence more rapidly. In the midst of this domestic political and economic uncertainty, foreign economic and political pressures on the government were unrelenting from major Western governments including Japan, the United States, and the countries of the European Community, though relations with most neighbouring countries continued to be strengthened. The events of the year which have led to such a mixed and contradictory summary of the condition of Myanmar are easier to identify than the causes, which remain a subject of passionate disputation.

Singapore 1990: Celebrating the End of an Era

Abstract: The year under review started on two very different notes: one announced a year of continuous celebration to mark 25 years of nationhood and the other affirmed a change of prime minister before the close of the year. Much of the cultural energy of the government was absorbed in organizing the celebrations. The political energy was channelled into formulating a proposal to protect the national wealth, which was accumulated during the long term of Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew's leader ship, from being spent by subsequent generations of government. The proposal took the form of the Elected Presidency Bill which will be made law in 1991. This Bill was part of a package of legislations, begun in 1984, that collectively may have the effect of steering Singapore politics to the middle ground. However, the year's most significant political developments happened outside Parliament. The first was the emergence of Malay professionals as an organized, visible community group that "challenged" the existing Malay leadership in the Malay community. The second was the ways in which the passing generation of the ruling PAP (People's Action Party) made their peace with ex-comrades turned political antagonists. The ban from entry to Singapore, imposed on the latter since 1966, was lifted as one of the last acts of Lee's government, followed by expressions of mutual respect for each other's integrity, sincerity, and beliefs. These gestures were becoming ways for a passing generation of socially and politically engaged individuals to settle their differences publicly.

Vietnam at The Crossroads in 1990

Abstract: The year 1990 was a difficult and uncertain one for Vietnam. Not so much because problems from within the economy had arisen, but because political events taking place outside Vietnam had a major influence on the direction the economy was heading. Undoubtedly, the most important of these events was the collapse of the Eastern European socialist systems throughout 1989 and 1990. With it came the fear, amongst the Vietnamese leaders at any rate, that the Eastern European reforms might spill over into Vietnam itself. If the experience of Eastern European communist regimes could be taken as a guide, the overthrow of the Vietnamese Communist Party became a possibility. To the Vietnamese leaders, this fear was and continues to be real. This is understandable. After all, there are a number of Eastern European political parallels in terms of successful attempts at economic restructuring without political change. More significantly, this fear on the part of the Vietnamese leadership had led to a dampening of its own version of perestro?ka or economic liberalization. This is most unfortunate, because ultimately the real victim of this shift or seemingly reversal of economic policies is the Vietnamese economy itself.

Personality Politics in Thailand

Abstract: Domestic Politics The year 1990 saw politics in Thailand dominated by key political and military personalities, a development which raised the question of whether the political system could be adequately described as a "rising" democracy or if, in fact, it was no more than a rudimentary one, where personalities held sway once their adversaries were unhappily outmanoeuvred. Prime Minister Chatichai Choonhavan, who became Thailand's first elected premier in 12 years when he took office in August 1988, was the central figure around whom politics revolved for the greater part of the year. Chatichai hung on ? albeit at times, precariously ? to the premiership, even when it seemed that the military, which still acts as a countervailing force in Thai politics, had run out of patience with him. Despite earlier predictions that he would not see the year out in office, he successfully fended off what appeared, each time, as a political or military threat to his premiership. By the end of the year, Chatichai ? whose reputation as a deft politician was widely confirmed but whose popularity during the year had definitely declined ? had survived a no-confidence motion in Parliament against his government, reshuffled his Cabinet three times and then resigned, in order to have a freer hand in re constituting a new coalition government.

Singapore´s Internationalization Stragegy for the 1990s

Abstract: The Growth Triangle In 1990, the concept of the Growth Triangle comprising Riau in Indonesia, Singapore, and Johor in Malaysia excited and caught the imagination of many ? analysts, planners, bureaucrats, developers, and entrepreneurs alike. With official endorsement at the highest level from all three countries, the concept became a reality and generated a flurry of both official and private activities. Bilateral joint committees between Singapore and Riau, and Singapore and Johor were quickly established to work on programmes of economic co-operation and to draw up memorandums of agreement. The Indonesia-Singapore ministerial committee on the development of Riau was formed and scheduled its first meeting for early February 1991. A joint Indonesia-Singapore investment promotion mission to Tokyo and Osaka was organized in December 1990 to woo Japanese investors to Batam. As Johor state has been given a relatively free hand to deal directly with Singapore, there were frequent official contacts and visits throughout the year. Indonesia and Singapore initiated negotiations to develop water resources, while Malaysia and Singapore negotiated to continue and expand co-operation on water resource management. Singapore continued to assist Johor in the development of industrial parks; and two Singapore government-owned companies (Singapore Technologies Industrial Corporation and Jurong Environmental Engineering) and Indonesia's Salim Group through a joint venture company, RT. Batamindo Invest ment Corporation, started the process of setting up Batam Industrial Park with an estimated cost of S$600 million to develop initially 500 hectares of land over the next five years and the option of a further expansion of 1,000 hectares. To date, 29 MNCs have agreed to set up manufacturing operations in the park's first phase scheduled to be completed in 1991. Singapore is the leading foreign investor in Batam with 21 projects and an investment commitment of US$344 million. Applications for seven other industrial parks have also been approved. Meanwhile, the population of Batam has increased from 6,000 in 1973 to 43,000 in 1983, and 105,131 by the end of November 1990. Batam has been transformed into a boom town with a hive of construction activities.

Laos 1990: Socialism Postponed but Leadership Intact

Abstract: In 1990 Laos underwent significant change, both in internal and external affairs. Although the revolutionary changes of the communist systems in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union were not duplicated in Laos, its political and economic systems were marked by them. However, the veteran communist leadership in Laos remained in control ? probably the longest-serving remaining communist leadership in the world. On the domestic scene, the trend towards liberalization continued, with advances more marked in the economic than the political sphere. Market incentives were emphasized. Attempts were continued to decentralize responsibility for government economic enterprise. Private investment and joint ventures were encouraged. Per haps the reform welcomed most by the Lao was the abandonment of agricultural collectives in favour of family-run farms. Although the Communist Party retained unchallenged control, both political freedom and participation were enlarged. A draft constitution, absent since the founding of the Lao People's Democratic Republic (LPDR) in 1975, was published, with the possibility of its promulgation in 1991. Party and government spokesmen seemed more willing than previously to acknow ledge their errors in attempting to achieve socialism too rapidly. Lao citizens were permitted to move about their country more freely, and even to cross the Mekong River to Thailand with fewer impediments. In external affairs, the most signficant change was the diminution of Vietnamese political and military presence and control. Concurrently, Lao relations with its southern neighbour, Thailand improved notably, and there was a moderate warm ing of relations with its northern neighbour, China. As the transformation of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe proceeded, Laos was obliged to rely less on the Soviet Union, its former primary donor of economic assistance. In addition, Lao relations improved with France, the European Community, and the United States.

Brunei: The Steady State

Abstract: On the world stage, the year 1990 will undoubtedly be noted for the portentous events of the Middle East. In whatever manner the Gulf crisis is eventually resolved, Iraq's annexation of Kuwait has irrevocably marked the passing of the old Arab order, having shattered the security and confidence of the oil-rich potentates in the region. The effect that this evidence of the vulnerability of small states ? however wealthy they may be ? has on the security perceptions of the Sultanate of Brunei must be attenuated by the country's location in a demonstrably more stable region. A more direct and favourable effect of the Gulf crisis has been the windfall gains to the state associated with the sharp rise in oil prices. In the short and medium term, Brunei's internal political stability seems assured. Notwithstanding the absence of any move towards democracy, the high standard of living enjoyed by the bulk of Bruneians obviates any significant opposition to the status quo. The steady state remains the exclusive preserve of the Sultan, his family, and a small coterie of advisers.

Into The Nineties: Global Economic Challenges and the Southeast Asian Response

Abstract: Introduction Few years have been as eventful as 1990, and the year will be remembered by different people for different reasons Economic historians, however, will surely remember it for the final demise of state socialism as a model for economic develop ment As the hammer and sickle flags were pulled down for the last time in one Eastern European country after another, the full implications of years of socialist planning, mismanagement of resources, and devastation of the natural environment began to emerge for all to see Some will regret the failure of the world's largest and most costly social experi ment Others may be disappointed by the apparent loss of social values that the socialist system ostensibly espoused Yet others will mourn the disappearance of a convenient adversary to blame for their own mistakes And many will object to the speed with which transition is taking place But only those who, most often for reasons of personal power, would close their eyes on reality can fail to see after 1990 that the centrally planned socialist economies have failed to deliver the goods and to provide the services their people want Moreover, they have remained unsuccessful in their attempts to change human nature in order to create the new social being required for the socialist system to function As leaders in Albania begin to accept these facts, those in Cuba and North Korea still look on as lone protagonists of state socialism But in Southeast Asia, a process of economic deregulation is now taking place, both in Vietnam and Laos, countries which had previously banked on their own forms of state socialism In part this is the result of the withdrawal of assistance by the Soviet Union and its Eastern European satellites, their main supporters in the past But even more important is the loss of credibility of an ideology that has been unceremoniously dropped by the Soviet Union, its main exponent The ideological changes in the socialist camp have also furthered a partial acceptance of market mechanisms in Myanmar And the ASEAN countries of Southeast Asia, that are already market-oriented to a great extent, have continued to discard the remnants of state intervention and control in their economies Who would have believed such a scenario at the beginning of the year? As walls crumble and barriers are penetrated, new forms of political, economic, and even military co-operation are evolving For the first time since the beginning of the cold war, the Soviet Union and the United States have submitted proposals for resolution by the United Nations jointly Confrontation politics have given way

Indonesia 1990: Democratization and Social Forces

Abstract: Both foreign and local observers of Indonesia generally agree that the government is the dominant force in local politics. Political life does indeed usually seem to be governed by a small ruling ?lite. This was certainly true in the past, and politics still generally conforms to a "top-down" pattern whereby important political decisions are taken by the inner circle of advisers around President Soeharto. But perhaps it is time to review this accepted wisdom on Indonesian politics. During 1990 a number of developments took place which indicate that membership of this inner circle is beginning to increase. It is, of course, not possible to point to a single event as marking a "turning-point" in state-society relations, beyond which society has become more powerful. Taken together, however, these developments show that the arena for meaningful political activity has broadened, reaching beyond the small ruling clique of senior military officers and state officials ? and sometimes beyond the state apparatus altogether. This article provides an overview of important political, economic, and religious developments during 1990, events which suggest that the "hierarchical" nature of political activity in Indonesia may be changing.

Changing dynamics of japan's interaction with southeast asia

Abstract: Although Japan's interaction with Southeast Asia has progressively deepened since the end of World War II, the movement towards closer core-periphery integration accelerated sharply during the 1980s. It could be argued, on the basis of the collapse of the Cold War, the attenuation of the Cambodian conflict, and the dramatic increase in Japan's role as an investor, aid giver and trading partner, that Japan has emerged as the single most important external power to most Southeast Asian nations. It remains to be seen whether, and for how long, the trends that have shaped Japan's current interaction with Southeast Asia will continue. What is clear is that whatever Japan does from this point onwards will have enormous impact on the well-being of Southeast Asian countries and on the shape of intraregional and extraregional relationships. The history of Japan's involvement in Southeast Asia has been marred by sharply different notions of partnership. The region has long held an attraction for a mod ernizing island nation whose lack of natural resources, dependence on trade and assertive, commercially oriented nationalism strikingly paralleled that of two of the principal Western colonial powers in Southeast Asia ? Britain and the Netherlands. Despite Tokyo's efforts to promote concepts of mutual co-operation based on Asian solidarity, Japan's status as a developed industrial society has generally overshadowed any pan-Asian considerations. Moreover, long centuries of isolation appear to have reinforced Japanese concepts of their own uniqueness, and hence made them prone to chauvinism. Enduring Japanese interests relating to Southeast Asia derive from concerns about economic well-being and security from invasion. In the post-war era, the latter has generally been provided by the U.S. nuclear umbrella and the U.S. Seventh Fleet, leaving Japan to concentrate on promoting its economic well-being within the context of a U.S.-led Asia-Pacific security order and an open trading regime. In Southeast Asia, attention to this interest has taken the form of concerns about regional stability, the security of strategic trade routes, and access to the region's raw materials and markets. More recently, the region has emerged as a major manufacturing base for Japanese industry and, hence, a critical element in the maintenance of Japan's global competitiveness.