Showing papers in "Systems Research and Behavioral Science in 1964"

Measuring utility by a single-response sequential method,

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to describe a sequential experiment that provides, at each stage in the sequence, an estimate of the utility to the subject of some amount of a commodity (e.g., money), and to present a few experimental results obtained with the method. The procedure is based upon the following well-known ‘expected utility hypothesis’. For each person there exist numerical constants, called utilities, associated with the various possible outcomes of his actions, given the external events not under his control. If, for a given subject, we could know the values of these constants and the (‘personal’) probabilities he assigns to the various external events we could, according to this model, predict his choice from among any available set of actions. He will choose an action with the highest expected utility; i.e., with the highest average of utilities of outcomes, weighted by the probabilities he assigns to the corresponding events. He will be indifferent between any two actions with equal expected utilities. Note that (by the nature of weighted averages) the comparison between expected utilities does not depend on which two particular outcomes are regarded as having zero-utility and unit-utility.

The motivational basis of organizational behavior

Abstract: How, and to what extent, do people become involved in an organization and committed to its goals? If an organization is to survive and to function effectively, it must require not one, but several different types of behavior from most of its members, and the motivations for these different types of behavior may also differ. How does a business organization attract the kind of people it needs? How does it hold them? How does it induce both reliable performance and spontaneous innovation an the part of its members? This paper proposes an analytic framework for understanding the complexities of motivational problems in an organization.

On measuring inequality

Abstract: Inequality and concentration are central concepts in all the social sciences. Economists study inequalities in the distribution of wealth, income, productivity, or goods. Sociologists may be concerned with social mobility-inequality of opportunity-or with inequalities in living conditions-the degree to which minority groups are concentrated in particular residential areas. A political scientist must be concerned with political inequality-concentrated, unequally distributed power. He may, for instance, need a measure of legislative malapportionment. Though the variables may be different, the basic question is the same: What is the degree to which wealth, or good living conditions, or power, are concentrated in a society? Since the questions are conceptually similar, it is reasonable to expect that the problems of quantification might be similar, and that the tools of measurement developed in one social science might be applicable to studies in another field. Yet there has been little interchange across disciplines, and scholars in each field persist in using techniques which are in some respects inferior to those used other fields. This article examines a number of measures of inequality, evaluates their strengths and weaknesses, and compares the results given by some of the measures when they were applied to data on representation state legislatures and on land distribution.

On the decrease of entropy in a thermodynamic system by the intervention of intelligent beings.

Abstract: In memory of Leo Szilard, who passed away on May 30,1964, we present an English translation of his classical paper ober die Enfropieuerminderung in einem thermodynamischen System bei Eingrifen intelligenter Wesen, which appeared in the Zeitschrift fur Physik, 1929,53,840-856. The publication in this journal of this translation was approved by Dr. Szilard before he died, but he never saw the copy. At Mrs. Szilard's request, Dr. Carl Eckart revised the translation. This is one of the earliest, if not the earliest paper, in which the relations of physical entropy to information (in the sense of modem mathematical theory of communication) were rigorously demonstrated and in which Maxwell's famous demon was successfully exorcised: a milestone in the integration of physical and cognitive concepts.

The structure of personality characteristics

Abstract: The problem of assessing personality in terms of objective criteria has spurred psychologists to undertake extensive methodological investigations. Essentially objective criteria are those which satisfy the demands of reliability (consistency) and validity (being related to something besides the measures themselves). In this article the author examines many ramifications of the methodological problems involved in personality assessment.

Originality: some social and personal determinants.

Abstract: “All artists are neurotic”. “There is a very thin line between genius and insanity”. “Edgar Allan Poe wrote “The Raven” under the influence of opium”. The preceding statements, ail firmly embedded in American folklore, are attempts to account for what no one as yet understands-the phenomenon creativity. What factors, in what combination, produce a Michelangelo, an Einstein, or a Freud? Studies have indicated that the development of creativity depends, in part, on how the creative output is received. Investigators have used such terms as a “warmly indulgent relationship” between creator and recognizer, and a “condition of psychological safety” established conjointly by the creator and recognizer, to describe one condition which seems to encourage the development of creativity. One component of creativity is originality. The present paper reports a study of the effects of interpersonal relationships and personality traits on the development of original ideas.

The entrepreneur in economic change.

Abstract: It has been recognized by economists that economic change and development depend in large part on social change. But the difficulties of constructing a model of social change that is comprehensive enough, yet detailed enough, to be a useful tool for analysis seem almost insurmountable. One way out of the difficulty is to focus on a particular type of change. Such variables as child-rearing practices, motives, and social values and attitudes shape the personality of the entrepreneur and thus have important, if indirect, effects on economic change and development. The present paper traces the changes in these “intervening variables” and the consequent changes in American business practices during the past 150 years, as contrasted to social and economic changes in Europe and Latin America during the same period.

A scientific method of districting.

Abstract: In 1961 the U. S. Supreme Court ruled that federal courts have jurisdiction cases concerning states' apportionment laws when there is a possible denial of rights guaranteed by the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution. Because of this decision, people in some states may for the first time have an opportunity to obtain equality of representation in state and federal legislatures. Reapportionment and redistricting are taking place, but what are the chances for obtaining and maintaining something approaching true equality? The changes may not be sufficient to upset the political power now held by minority political groups in these states, since there is still a possibility of gerrymandering. A scientific method of apportionment which includes automatic changes after every census has been accepted for the apportlonment of the U. S. House of Representatives. As a result it seems that the bitter congressional fights and power struggles and the resulting inequalities representation due to reapportionment have been reduced. But why stop there? Why not do the same for the process of districting? Resented in this paper is one possible scientific or impartial method of districting that the author believes would free, to a certain degree, the process of districting from power struggles and gerrymandering. The method can apply to either the U. S. House of Representatives or to state legislative chambers in states where apportionment is based on population.

A program of research in behavioral electronics

Abstract: “Between the laboratory and the clinic lies almost the entire natural environment of humanity, practically untouched and unexplored by direct scientific procedures.” Yet electronic devices exist by which the scientist could not only record but modify the day-to-day behavior of his subjects or patients. The obvious dangers of abuse of these powerful tools may be why scientists have not made use of them. But these electronic devices may be used for constructive as well as destructive purposes, and their potential usefulness in understanding and solving human problems should not be neglected. This paper outlines some uses which the psychologist, the therapist, the social worker, and others concerned with human behavior might make of these devices.

Actual versus consistent decision behavior.

Abstract: Students of decision-making have advanced several general hypotheses, some of them contradictory, about the decision process. The present paper outlines these hypotheses, suggests experiments to test them, and reports preliminary evidence from investigations carried out by the author.

A theory of the structure of perturbations in observer ratings and questionnaire data in personality research

Abstract: Oliver Wendell Holmes once outlined the six personalities involved in a dialogue between two people, here John and Thomas: three Johns the real John, John's ideal John, and Thomas's ideal John; and correspondingly, three Thomases. The psychologist may be concerned with the real John, but he has access only to Thomas's ideal John (observer-reports) and John's ideal John (self-report). How can he extract John's true behavior from the reports of his behavior? Is there any systematic way in which he can account for the distortions which must arise from internal and external influences on the perception of the observer? The present paper attempts to answer these questions by outlining a theory of perturbations and describing an experimental design for weighing and evaluating the perturbing influences which affect personality data.

An experimental analysis of some variables of minimax theory.

Abstract: Game theory is not descriptive. It prescribes strategies for achieving particular goals within a particular set of rules. But it makes no statements about the strategies which people actually use in playing these games, whether their strategies conform to those suggested by the game-theoretical model, or what factors other than the rules of the game may affect a player's strategy. While the application of game theory to the study of psychological, sociological, and political processes has increased in recent years, there have been relatively few descriptive studies of the variables and conditions affecting people's choices of strategy in various game situations. This paper investigates the effects of an opponent's strategy, expectation of an opponent's strategy, and the value of the game on subjects' choices in a series of 2-person, 3 × 3, zero-sum, strictly-determined games.

Nature, the Experimental Laboratory, and the Credibility of Hypotheses

Abstract: Experiments at Ann Arbor indicate that rat life expectancy increases with a diet of ecstasy. Raffish rats live as long as eight years, the tests show, while puritan rats, on love-free and otherwise grim and grubby diets, succumb at five. The autobiographical parallel is tempting, but though “love” is said to be a good metabolizer, and though bacchanals have been recommended for the circulation, whether my two-and-fourscore years have been sustained by my devotion to both, or whether I am still here in spite of them, is only a lay opinion-and a “philosophy of life.” The facts are rat facts. -Igor Stravinsky Extrapolation from rat to man, or from game simulations to the marketplace or the summit conference, is done by the student of men and groups of men, not because he prefers to, but because he must. For how can the scientist inflict on Mr. Stravinsky or on U.S. Steel the rigid controls and intense, sustained observation necessary to obtain useful data? On the other hand, how can he be sure that his carefully designed laboratory experiments are valid tests of hypotheses about the natural world? This dilemma is explored in the present paper, and a framework for testing hypotheses is presented.

The nosology of schizophrenia: a co-operative study.

Abstract: The purpose of the Stanley R. Dean Research Award, established in 1962, is to give public emphasis to the importance of basic research in achieving an understanding of schizophrenia and to recognize individual scientists who have made important contributions in this area. While he was full-time at the Mental Health Research Institute, the author, who received the third annual award, was Principal Investigator of the Schizophrenia and Psychopharmacology Joint Research Project. This was an extensive 7-year multidisciplinary program of basic research conducted under the joint auspices of The University of Michigan and Ypsilanti State Hospital. In the 1964 Stanley R. Dean Award Lecture, which follows, Dr. Gerard describes the work of the Project and some of the findings which have emerged.

The effect of physician bias in medical diagnosis.

Abstract: Medical diagnoses are often based on qualitative rather than quantitative criteria, which may show considerable variation among individual physicians. This paper proposes a method for quantitative evaluation of these variations, and discusses the larger problem of obtaining better diagnostic criteria for sickness and health.

Managerial behavior and interpersonal competence.

Abstract: One of the most persistent of all the demands made on behavioral scientists who study business behavior is that they provide an explanation of the modes of interpersonal relations of managers and their effects on the functioning of the organization. Common-sense observation indicates that the styles of interpersonal behavior among managers are no less varied than among persons in other careers. How do these different interpersonal styles relate to the individual's personality and career development? Is a given style superior to others? By what criteria are such evaluations to be made? Can we, for example, demonstrate that a given mode of behavior is associated with greater organizational effectiveness than another mode? Or is it possible that modes of interpersonal behavior have less significance in determining organizational outcomes than we would suppose? While both scientists and businessmen rightfully consider these questions important, too often they answer them too quickly. This paper takes a critical look at existing ideas about interpersonal competence, and recommends some modifications.

Business as a social system.

Abstract: The present author states, “The more I look into the ordinary assumptions on which social science operates regarding the nature of human nature and the nature of society, the more I become convinced that somehow we in the socalled scientific community have managed to stand the real world on its head. The present paper is an attempt to sketch out some of the actual assumptions on which people operate, as opposed to those that we have assumed to characteristic of their basic premise systems”.

Coronary disease factors.

Abstract: In a previous article, the authors described the construction of a quantitative hypothesis indicating the relative importance of such variables as blood lipids, blood pressure, family history of atherosclerotic disease, body build, and psychological traits in the production of coronary heart disease. The present article reports the use of factor rotation techniques to define and isolate more clearly a simple relationship between the factors concerned with coronary artery disease, on the one hand, and the physiological and psychological variables which are part of these factors, on the other.

The solution of simple and compound word problems

Abstract: Students of problem-solving, in common with students of learning theory, decision-making, and other cognitive processes, live in a state of constant frustration at their inability to observe what goes on inside the problemsolver's head. Since direct observation is impossible, other methods for investigating the problem-solving process must be developed. One strategy which has been used successfully in investigating other cognitive processes the construction of mathematical models. This paper reports an experiment test one such model.

Conscience orientation and dimensions of personality

Abstract: The common assumption that all “mature” people share the same moral and ethical standards has led psychologists (and others) to overlook the importance of individual differences in moral reasoning. But reasons, say the present authors, far from being an irrelevant adjunct to personality, are an important key to understanding it. This paper reports a study of four types of conscience orientation and their relationships to other personality characteristics.