Showing papers in "Systems Research and Behavioral Science in 1975"

The search for a general theory of behavior

Abstract: Failure of the behavioral sciences to develop an adequate general theory is seen as a result of the difficulty in deriving from evolutionary theory a subtheory, or set of subtheories, with satisfying applicability to the study of behavior. Efforts at general theories based on reflex concepts, or simple movements such as in orientation, have been unsuccessful in dealing with complex behaviors. Recent arguments that selection is focused at the level of the individual organism suggest the additional inadequacy that such theories fail to emphasize the selective compromises that exist at suborganismic levels. Evolutionary theories about behavior have tended to concentrate chiefly on patterns of historical change (phylogenies) without stressing adaptive (= reproductive) strategies, or have generally viewed adaptiveness erroneously as focused at group, population, or species levels. Human society is discussed briefly, in a context of selection focused at the individual level, considering six principal aspects: group-living, sexual competition, incest avoidance, nepotism, reciprocity, and parenthood. An effort is made to combine the approaches and data of biologists and social scientists in analyzing reciprocity in social interactions.

Match making: Assignments based on bilateral preferences

Abstract: The stable marriage problem, i.e., the problem of assigning the members of two disjoint sets to one another is extended to the case in which individual preferences are represented by weak orderings instead of linear orderings. This leads to a more natural solution for such problems as the processing of college admissions and the optimal distribution of personnel. The paper begins with a formal definition of an assignments function and introduces conditions on it, among them stability. It is shown how the Gale and Shapley algorithm for finding stable assignments can be extended to the more general case considered here. It is shown that if there is an assignment which is preferred by a majority to all other assignments, then this assignment is necessarily stable. Moreover, in a situation where all preference orders are linear orders, all stable assignments are majority assignments.

Estimating the efficacy of a vote

Abstract: The efficacy of a vote by an individual citizen in an election may be defined roughly as the expected effect it has on the outcome of the election. This is a measure of how much that voter contributes to the decision making of the social system in which he is. A number of political scientists have rightly claimed that the efficacy of a vote is small when the electorate is large. We argue here that they have somewhat misdefined an important parameter of the problem and we strengthen their work by means of a Bayesian analysis. Many people derive personal utility from the act of voting quite apart from the efficacy of the vote as such. This analysis depends primarily on the voter's estimate of the probability that his vote will either produce or resolve a tie. The asymptotic form for this probability is quite different from one that has appeared in the literature. The probability is tabulated on the assumption of a beta prior and the problem of choosing the parameters in this distribution is analyzed.

Psychological climate: Some theoretical and empirical considerations†

Abstract: Psychological climate is distinguished from organizational climate, and a model is presented to depict how psychological climate affects and is affected by other variables in organizational settings. Based on the model, a series of hypotheses is developed and tested in the managerial echelons of four large organizations. Findings indicate that psychological climate seems to be affected by the organizational setting and, to a lesser degree, by the employee's echelon in the organization. Further, psychological climate was found to have considerable covariation with satisfaction and motivational variables, while failing to correlate to any appreciable degree with performance measures. As represented by the model, climate was also tested for its moderating effects on the relationships between motivation and the dependent variables of satisfiction and performance, with mixed results. One of the more important considerations arising from this study concerns the distinction between organizational and psychological climates. And while no precise answers are provided, directions for future research seem to be clarified by this investigation.

Fair and reasonable election systems

Abstract: A major problem in social choice theory has been to determine “fair” and “reasonable” criteria for election systems. Important advances in the field have been made by May (1952), Fishburn, and Young (1973), who have been able to characterize certain election systems through such criteria. Arrow (1963), on the other hand, has demonstrated an inconsistent set of criteria for decision systems. This paper explores some fair and reasonable conditions for decision systems, and, in the case of three alternatives, provides a provides a characterization.

The meaning and significance of general system theory

Abstract: While attracting increasing attention, general system theory also invites both extravagent praise and biased criticism. The prospects of this theory include, however, the promise of being able to draw on emerging parallelisms in different scientific fields and provide the basis for an integrated science of complex organization per se. A number of factors favor the emergence of such a theory, including the valuation of integrated general theories in scientific communities and the shifting patterns of resource allocations for research which now favor interdisciplinary investigations. At the same time, a number of factors block the development of the theory, including intellectual as well as organizational inertia, a confusion concerning the meaning of the term general system theory, and misapprehensions concerning its levels of generality. The significance of the theory can be concisely stated in terms of a few basic propositions which give a definition of general system theory, a formal specification of the definition, and provide the conceptual framework for integrating a hierarchy of systems and systems theories into a unitary general system theoretic framework. The propositions define categories of system types and system levels, intertype relations, systme evolution, and approaches to systems research.

An experimental evaluation of alternative communication systems as used for medical diagnosis.

Abstract: While the problem of providing adequate health care to remote populations has been widely recognized, little research has been undertaken to evaluate alternative systems designed to provide such care. An essential part of such a system is the communications link between the doctor and the community he is serving. Studying this two-way subsystem in the context of primary diagnosis and patient management, efficiency and effectiveness of color television, black and white television and hands-free telephone were compared with physical presence consultation. No significant differences in performance were found among the three systems using telecommunications. Physical presence consultation was found superior only for detecting secondary medical problems. Significant rank order correlations were found, however, between the years of experience of the consulting physician and both diagnostic accuracy and appropriate patient management. Also, the attitudes of the patients, doctors and nurses alike ranked physical presence over color television over black and white television over hands-free telephone for medical consultations.

Plurality distortion and majority rule

Abstract: Discussions of the implications of Arrow's theorem for majority rule have typically focused on calculating the probability of the paradox of voting. In doing so, these analyses have ignored another significant problem of preference aggregation in n-way (n > 2) elections, the existence of non-Condorcet winners, when a Condorcet alternative is available, under a simple plurality criterion. At the level of the democratic political system, e.g., a proposed national presidential primary or any electoral subsystem, e.g., state presidential primaries, gubernatorial, senatorial elections, the simple plurality criterion may distort electoral preferences by failing to select an available Condorcet candidate. An algorithm for calculating the probability of such plurality distortion is offered, and probability calculations for three-way elections for small electorates are presented. Most notable is the discovery that single-peaked preferences, while reducing or eliminating the probability of the paradox, lead to a concomitant increase in the probability of plurality distortion. In instances in which no candidate receives half the vote and preferences are single-peaked, the probability of plurality distortion is actually greater than the probability of plurality-Condorcet coincidence. These results cast some doubt on the validity of the plurality criterion as a voting procedure as well as indicating some of the difficulties inherent in the Condorcet criterion. Alternatives to the plurality criterion are discussed, and some preliminary tests of these alternatives are made.

Opening and Closing in Open Systems.

Abstract: After considering some phenomena of collective behavior, this paper suggests an amendment to the open social system model. Only under some conditions does a pluralistic society approximate J. S. Mill's description of the free market of ideas. A more accurate picture is continual oscillation between relative openness and closedness—resilient adjustment to intakes of information and states of entropy. When such oscillations are more fully analyzed as information games, we may better understand how open systems work, as well as such phenomena as ethnic revivalism, cultic movements, backlashes, mass contagions, fads, and fashion cycles.

System theoretic limits on the cybernetic paradigm

Abstract: The cornerstone of modern cybernetic theory is still the first-order, negative feedback scheme as when it began. Though there have been attempts to move toward a n-order formulation (Forrester 1968) and some attempts to define the possibilities of positive feedpack systems (Maruyama 1963), the original formulation is still the most widely referenced and employed. It is so widely employed that its effects are felt in fields as diverse as automata theory, computer engineering, organization theory, and behaviorist psychology, and, of course, it has become the axis of much work in the management sciences, particularly that associated with system control. Indeed, the cybernetic scheme has now attained the status of a proper paradigm, which means that its first premises are often simply accepted rather than investigated. Indeed, some enthusiasts feel the cybernetic paradigm largely exhausts the substance of system theory. However, when we analyze the fundamental attributes of the cybernetic paradigm from a system theoretic perspective, we find some limits on both its scientific and operational utility, limits which have received only the most casual attention. It is these limits which this paper will explore.

In search of Buber's Ghosts: A calculus for interpersonal phenomenology

Abstract: A Boolean analysis of three independently developed methods for the study of interpersonal phenomenology reveals that they are isomorphic with one another. Their shared structure makes it possible to develop a single lucid and rigorous language for the full interpretation of all three methods. This language removes the need for intuitive derivations of terms, reduces semantic confusion, clarifies relations among terms, provides a basis for new applications, and reduces scoring effort by over 95 per cent. The language possesses sufficient generality to be useful in a variety of studies of interpersonal phenomenology. Implications are discussed with reference to three specific applications: the study of process and outcome in marital therapy, the phenomenology of different ethnic groups, and the study of communication and attribution in the families of schizophrenics. “First, there is Peter as he wishes to appear to Paul, and Paul as he wishes to appear to Peter. Then there is Peter as he really appears to Paul—that is, Paul's image of Peter and similarly there is the reverse situation. Further, there is Peter as he appears to himself, and Paul as he appears to himself. Lastly, there are the bodily Peter and the bodily Paul. Two living beings and six ghostly appearances which mingle in many ways in the conversation between the two.” (Buber, 1957, p. 107).

The effects of manipulating feedback upon children's motives and performance: A propositional statement and empirical evaluation.

Abstract: A propositional structure is set forth that considers: (1) the role of various forms of feedback in eliciting differing motivational orientations toward performance in tasks that reflect ability; (2) the strength of arousal associated with these various motivational orientations as a function of repeated feedback and the age of the performer; and (3) the impact of differing strengths of arousal upon the performance of simple and complex tasks. On the basis of this propositional statement, a series of hypotheses are formulated and tested concerning predicted effects of various forms of feedback upon second, fourth and sixth grade Flemish boys performing simple and complex tasks in a classroom setting. In general, the results are consistent with predictions that the strength of competitive motives, induced by own and other performance feedback, as compared to individualistic motives induced by own feedback and a control condition of no feedback, increase both as a function of trials and the age of the performer, and that these increases in arousal lead to higher levels of performance in simple, but not complex tasks.

Computer simulation of two‐person interactions

Abstract: A general model of two-person interactions is presented and then a computer program to simulate interactions using this general model is described. The specific model developed emphasizes the emotional aspects of interpersonal behavior. It concentrates on roles, rather than goals or attitudes, as determinants for action. The personality theory developed by Leary is used as a basis for the specific model, but several modifications of this theory are made. Experiments with the simulation model involved the definition of hypothetical people whose interactions were simulated. In general, these simulated people developed into reciprocal role patterns similar to those predicted by Leary. Specific examples of simulated hypothetical people with psychiatric abnormalities are described. To indicate a way in which validation of the simulation could be done, real people were represented in the computer model and human judges then tried to distinguish a series of interactions generated by the computer model from a series generated by the people represented.

A general systems model for the analysis of organizational change

Abstract: A model of organizations was developed using the concepts of general systems theory, GST. The model provides a set of logical assertions about causality in organizations and a framework for the detection and analysis of organizational change. Four major propositions derive directly from the model: (1) the level proposition, (2) the constraint proposition, (3) the permanent change proposition and (4) the predominance proposition. The propositions give rise to specific organizational hypotheses There are two major limitations attendant to the systemic hypotheses testing of organizational change. First, dynamic production organizations cannot tolerate experimental controls, making the question of causation more difficult than in traditional designs. Second, testing hypotheses stemming from a general systems model, the basis of which is holistic reasoning, requires the investigator to take an almost clinical approach in his interpretation. This renders his conclusions vulnerable to judgmental error and experimenter bias. Three hypotheses were tested using the methodological orientation of GST—holistic reasoning—to demonstrate three systemic methods of research. (1) The method of weak causal inference makes an assertion of causality from trends in a set of data to a series of antecedent events. (2) The method of strong causal inference compares different kinds of data from different kinds of systems and infers causality to the change interventions. (3) The method of parallel trends compares long interval data, survey indices, with short interval data, business indices, infers a causal relationship between their trends, and infers causality to antecedent events.

Compliance and the use of threats and promises after a power reversal

Abstract: Compliance and the effects of a power reversal in a dyad were examined using the modified prisoner's dilemma game A total of 60 subjects were first the targets of a simulated source's coercive or reward power employed with resolutely accommodative, irresolutely accommodative, or resolutely exploitative intent Sex of subject made up the final factor in the 3 × 2 × 2 factorial design Midway through the experiment, subjects were given the opportunity to exercise reward and coercive power Compliance fitted the cost-gains model Although the resolutely exploitative use of power conveyed the impression of the greatest degree of potency, it did not elicit overall the greatest degree of compliance After the power reversal, when subjects decided to use their coercive power exploitatively, they punished the simulated target's defiance most when they had previously faced the resolute sources, and least when they interacted with the irresolute source During power irrelevant interactions, subjects, in both the weak and strong power positions, reciprocated the degree of accommodative intent with which the source had used power

Sex differences and the statistics of crowd fluids

Abstract: In a recent paper L. F. Henderson suggested that the movement of people in a crowd represented an analogous system to that of a collection of gas molecules. Specifically he suggested that the classical Maxwell-Boltzman theory of the molecular system might also describe the distribution of velocities found in the movement of people. Henderson's empirical results produced good agreement with such a theory except for deviations near the modes of the velocity distributions. These he attributed to sexual inhomogeneity in the sampled population but was unable to test this. In this paper further empirical results are presented which confirm Henderson's sexual inhomogeneity conjecture. An analysis of variance demonstrates both sex and age as being highly significant independent factors, and in addition establishes the normality of the residuals. It is shown that the observed velocities of people's movements obey a normal distribution, and as the Maxwell-Boltzman distribution is equivalent to the normal distribution in the one-dimensional situations described, there is no need to invoke the statistics of molecular systems to describe those of the movements of people.

A systems approach to environmental engineering

Abstract: Problems of the environment have arisen because subsystem management—of the household, the factory, the farm and the town—neglects external effects. Optimal resolution of these problems can only be achieved if analysts and management themselves do not commit the error of focusing on too limited systems. In particular, the full geographic and conceptual extent of polluting systems, their linkage with other polluting systems, the ecological systems they drive, and the human systems engendering them must be taken into account. Effective environmental management must, however, also avoid the counter-part trap of considering systems in such great scope and detail that operational tractability is lost. It is recommended that three specific systems be kept in mind throughout the search for the most effective policy handles: (1) the economic system of consumption, technological adaptation, and production which all are linked by monetary incentives; (2) the political system through which actions designed to preserve or restore the environment are organized and (3) the information system which transmits the data and the understanding required for adept environmental control. The real name of the devil is sub-optimization, finding out the best way to do something which should not be done at all. (Kenneth Boulding, 1970).

Critique and comment. Prisoner's Dilemma: Metagames and other solutions

Abstract: Metagame theory does not solve the paradox of rationality, i.e., both players do better if both play irrationally, generated by prisoner's dilemma games under the assumption of individual rationality. There is a further metagame generated by each player's need to optimize. This is that if either player convinces the other to cooperate by metagames or other means, he can do better by defecting. This higher order metagame is isomorphic with the base game, and the original irrational equilibrium is regenerated.

Systems analysis of dyadic interaction: The role of interpersonal judgment

Abstract: Dyadic interaction should be studied as a formal system, with the behaviors of each individual studied separately in such a way that the whole can be constructed from the parts. A mechanism for such interaction is interpersonal judgment, by which A selects a response to suit B's behavior. In two experiments, Ss acting as teachers were given performance scores and asked to select goals for students. Their responses were a linear function of the performance score, independent of their assigned aim or the students' task. High norms and actual teaching experience lowered the goals chosen but did not affect the shape of the function. An illustration of the use of this data in a model of dyadic interaction leading to a self-fulfilling prophecy is given.

The urban grant university concept: A systems analysis†

Abstract: An effort is underway to obtain federal funds to make urban grants to public urban universities. Conceived as similar to the federal land grants made to universities to serve agriculture by the Morrill Act of 1862, they would enable universities to carry out research and development and consult with local governmental officials in order to improve the effectiveness of services to the community and its quality of life. This article outlines a general living systems approach to the problems of an urban community. Community structure and process are analyzed in terms of 19 matter-energy and information processing subsystems that exist in all levels of living systems, from cells to supranational systems. Louisville, Kentucky, as a system and its relation to the University of Louisville are examined as an illustration of what might be accomplished by one urban grant institution in a specific setting.

One direction for improving ecosystem modeling

Abstract: Simulation modeling of ecological systems has been more heavily emphasized as a part of the U.S. contribution to the International Biological Program, IBP. Research pursued by the biomes, major components of the USIBP effort, has developed some of the strengths and identified some of the weaknesses of simulation modeling as adopted from the physical sciences. This paper describes a new direction for ecosystem simulation which has been suggested by these earlier efforts. The proposed system would organize models in the way ecosystems organize themselves. It would take, as inputs, environmental information and modeling objectives and would produce, as output, a model of the system appropriate to the given objectives. While such a system is years away, intermediate systems will provide direction to the larger task and be useful in themselves.

Clique: A suite of programs for extracting cliques from a symmetric graph

Abstract: CLIQUE is the generic name for a suite of programs centered around the extraction of maximal complete graphs from a binary symmetric matrix representing a continuous similarity/difference or a binary relation among entities. Its features include the following: derivation of a graph from measures either of similarity or difference, the possibility of employing tests of statistical significance in deriving the input graph or in subsequent clusterings based on the cliques, output allowing investigation of all cliques containing any single element, or permitting a two-stage analysis in which the elements contained in cliques on the second pass correspond to cliques extracted on the first pass. Applicability extends to a considerable range of input data.

Urban housing selection

Abstract: This paper examines the selection process of housing in urban areas as a coalition process between buyers and sellers. A behavioral and analytic theory is used to predict occupancy of different socioeconomic neighborhoods by persons of different income levels. By including different preferences of buyers and sellers dependent upon their basic socioeconomic background, it is possible to predict decrease or increase of neighborhood size as a function of these preferences. The model allows us to take into account explicitly the effect of bargaining and interdependency of both buyers and sellers in the community system, thus expanding our definition and understanding of decision making about housing in the household sector of this system. An example is included using some data from the Canadian housing market.

Control systems and teleological systems

Abstract: A cybernetic systems framework is constructed within which a distinction between teleological, i.e., purposive, and nonteleological systems is drawn on empirical grounds. The following provide conjunctively sufficient and disjunctively necessary tests of the teleological: (1) applicability of cybernetic specification; (2) perturbation test; and (3) independent testability of component relations. This analysis avoids the problem of pinpointing the defining characteristics of the teleological and at least provides the groundwork for a complete analysis of purposive behavior. Teleological systems are found to cut across a broad array of system types, including living and nonliving machine systems, regulatory and servosystems, as well as various system levels ranging from intracellular to organizalional. Finally, a cybernetic systems framework is claimed to be adequate for teleological phenomena in that it is capable of accounting for human purposive behavior.

Monitoring mankind: The search for quality

Abstract: This paper concerns itself with an effort on behalf of the Environmental Studies of the Environmental Protection Agency to develop a methodology for the assessment and quantification of the term quality of life. An experiment was conducted at a QOL symposium in 1973 where a list of QOL factors was generated and weighted in the hope of providing a useful tool for the decision making process. Discussion of the exercise points out the problems and pitfalls to be avoided in trying to quantify this concept. Finally, after analyzing the results, the authors suggest that measuring QOL as a happiness function may not be feasible and suggest, instead, the use of dissatisfaction indices. A brief description of this concept is presented with some current applications.

Statistical significance of the Lambda coefficients: A comment

Abstract: This brief note corrects an error in “Statistical Significance of the Lambda Coefficients,” by Frederick Hartwig, which appeared in Behavioral Science, July 1973, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 307–310.

System simulation. Man plus

Abstract: This analytical essay is drawn from a larger study which attempts to redefine the human condition in terms of the evolutionary relationships with those diverse technologies, institutions and organizational forms which have subtended our survival. The major premise is that, rather than being alien to or constraining upon human development, these supporting systems have made us human. We retain our human qualities only by externalizing various physical and intellectual capacities into autonomously evolving organismic systems which enable us to sidestep many of the natural processes of adapting the organism itself to the environment. Human artifice is the natural order for human beings. Given this hybrid position in the evolutionary scale, humans have remained uneasy and ambivalent about this symbiotic dependence on their survival extensions and amplifiers and have endowed this relationship with various mythologic and totemic qualities. The latter both obscure and reinforce the systemic nature of the overall process. The analysis is carried forward to suggest (a) that one of our major tasks is to reconceptualize these aspects of human systemic development, and (b) that the models of human society, of our institutions and social capabilities with which we operate, tend to restrict much of our thought and action within obsolete historical conditions. The urgency of mastering our new global complexities and of extending more positive control over our affairs underscores the need for the overall human system to become more consciously self-steering.