Showing papers in "Systems Research and Behavioral Science in 1976"
TL;DR: In this article, subjects were presented with games intended to induce subjective second-order probability distributions over the chances of winning $1.00, under the assumption that ambiguity is avoided, subjects' preferences among the game implied that ambiguity cannot be fully characterized by the ranges of subjective second order probability distributions.
Abstract: This article concerns the decision making process in individual human organisms. Ambiguity is a type of uncertainty resulting from the decision maker possessing vague information about the chances of various events occurring. This study tested an hypothesis concerning how ambiguity is characterized or encoded subjectively. Subjects were presented with games intended to induce subjective second order probability distributions over the chances of winning $1.00. Under the assumption that ambiguity is avoided, subjects' preferences among the game implied that ambiguity cannot be fully characterized by the ranges of subjective second order probability distributions. Avenues for pursuing alternative encoding explanations are discussed, also.
181 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide operational definitions for the motives of self-interest, self-sacrifice, altruism, aggression, cooperation, and competition, and investigate combinations of the motives.
Abstract: In any complex social system, the choices of a single person often affect the outcomes of others. When one takes the others' outcomes into account in making choices, we say one is manifesting a social motive. We assume that an individual's social motives are manifested in his social preferences. Any theory of decision or choice requires information about preferences, and so in addition to attempting to clarify definitions of social motives, this study provides a framework for theories of social decision.
To begin, we establish operational definitions for the motives of self-interest, self-sacrifice, altruism, aggression, cooperation, and competition. These definitions are based on the simple operators of summations and differences. Then we examine some supplementary motives involving proportionality operators. Next we eliminate the assumption that an individual has a fixed preference structure which is applied to all social choices. This leads to a focus on the specific distribution of consequences resulting in conditional motives; conditional motives reflect varying basic motives depending on whether the individual is ahead or behind. All these motives are represented graphically, and a correspondence matrix is given to illustrate the interrelationships among the motives.
Finally, we investigate combinations of the motives since such composites are less restrictive and can better account for observed behavior. Linear combinations are interesting but still too restrictive. Conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic combinations offer useful possibilities for characterizing particular social motives. Complex combinations involving general nonlinear forms arise and some representative forms are explored.
175 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a context sensitive approach to conflict research is recommended, in which concepts are articulated with specific regard for the interactional system in which they will be applied, and a preliminary effort is made to outline the nature of the variables in each system, allowing the treatment of existing as well as new topics as valid influence foci while maintaining a good consonance of theoretical expression with social experience.
Abstract: The central variables of power, conflict, cooperation and trust have traditionally been employed in a context-irrelevant fashion as general theoretical explanations for many social phenomena at the levels of organisms or persons, groups, organizations, societies and even supranational systems. This paper questions the assumed high cross-system applicability of these concepts by outlining three different prototypical power systems which seem to find frequent expression in everyday life: the unilateral power system, in which a strong source imposes influence on a weak target; the mixed power system, in which partially equivalent interactants bargain to agreement or deadlock; and the bilateral power system, in which interactants are in unit relation and formulate joint policy programs. Power, conflict, cooperation and trust are all found to require substantially different definition and treatment when considered in one as opposed to another of these prototypical systems.
A context sensitive approach to conflict research is recommended, in which concepts are articulated with specific regard for the interactional system in which they will be applied. A preliminary effort is made to outline the nature of the variables in each system, allowing the treatment of existing as well as new, e.g., love and hate, topics as valid influence foci while maintaining a good consonance of theoretical expression with social experience. More generally, the dual issues of a bias toward context-irrelevant theory coupled with unrepresentative empirical forays are suggested as potentially debilitating problems for every subdiscipline concerned with social inquiry.
167 citations
TL;DR: This paper concerns networks within human systems at the level of the group to abstract significant structural features from social networks by implementing an algorithm in the APL language.
Abstract: This paper concerns networks within human systems at the level of the group. We wish to abstract significant structural features from social networks. Each kind of observed tie in a population, reported as a square binary matrix, is compared with an image graph on a smaller set of nodes, called blocks. Correspondences between persons and blocks are found for which each image is the homomorphic image of that observed graph. An algorithm for this purpose is implemented in the APL language. The central construct is a four-dimensional array reporting conflicts, from all graphs, between each possible assignment of one person to a block and each possible assignment of another person. Results are given for a model on three blocks applied to observed graphs of eight types of tie among 18 persons.
84 citations
TL;DR: The propensities of alternative two-stage systems to elect the candidate which would be elected by a theoretically more sophisticated but less practical norm procedure such as simple majority of the Borda sum-of-ranks method are assessed.
Abstract: This paper examines two-stage voting procedures [x,k,y] at the level either of a local governmental organization or of a national governmental system in which x is the number of candidates a voter is to vote for on the first ballot, k is the number of candidates to be placed on the second ballot according to the greatest vote totals from the first ballot, and y is the number of the k candidates on the second ballot that a voter is to vote for on the second ballot. The winner is the candidate with the most votes on the second ballot. These systems are practical in many situations and correspond to many two-stage voting systems in current use. The main purpose of the paper is to assess the propensities of alternative two-stage systems to elect the candidate which would be elected by a theoretically more sophisticated but less practical norm procedure such as simple majority of the Borda sum-of-ranks method. Extensive computer simulation, restricted to three to ten candidates but allowing a variety of methods by which voter preferences are randomly generated, reveals that the best propensity maximizing two-stage system has the form [x,2,1] in which exactly two candidates appear on the second ballot. Under the restriction that a voter is to vote for only one candidate on each ballot, the best system is common double plurality [1,2,1]. Without this restriction the best system usually has x = 2, with x approximately equal to the optimal number of candidates to vote for on the single ballot in a one-stage election in which the winner is determined by the greatest number of votes from the single ballot.
67 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate the process by which one member of an interpersonal system adjusts his expectations for the other's behavior on the basis of the others's concession rate and his perceived similarity.
Abstract: This study investigates the process by which one member of an interpersonal system adjusts his expectations for the other's behavior on the basis of the other's concession rate and his perceived similarity. The process was explored in a bilateral monopoly situation where subjects, 52 eighth grade boys, assumed the role of buyer bargaining against sellers who were simulated according to a prearranged program. Strong effects were produced by both manipulations. As sellers became increasingly tough, buyers became increasingly soft. Increasing seller softness, on the other hand, resulted in no change in buyer softness. The former subjects expected larger seller concessions than they received; the latter predicted seller concessions accurately and conceded proportionately. Similar sellers elicited more buyer softness and more trials to agreement than dissimilar sellers. Internal data analyses revealed two types of bargainers in the high similarity condition: those who increased and those who decreased their level of softness in the final phase of bargaining. Additional evidence suggested that the latter subjects' behavior could be explained in terms of a disappointment in expectations caused by the nonreciprocating opponent and by their own previous high level of softness. The results are considered to have implications for a wider class of social situations involving both mutuality and opposition of interests.
40 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the effects of the values of one part of a living system, a group, on the system as a whole and the relationship among the group members.
Abstract: This study investigates the effects of the values of one part of a living system, a group, on the system as a whole and the relationship among the group members. Eight quarters of male undergraduate subjects participated in a computer-controlled experiment designed to study the effects of the relative magnitude of payoffs to the three-person grand coalition on bargaining and coalition formation behavior in three-person games. The experimental design employed five sets of quota values and four different grand coalition values for each set of quotas. Various conceptual systems, mathematical models from game theory, were tested and the bargaining process itself was examined.
The results are analyzed in terms of the frequency with which different coalition types were formed, the disbursement of the payoffs, the progress of the bargaining process from initial phases to the final phases, and the nature of the bargaining process. Results show that as the value of that grand coalition increases, the frequency of the grand coalition also increases. The kernel and bargaining set M1(i), are supported as predictors of the final outcomes, while the Shapley value model is rejected as inadequate. Several significant effects due to the value of the grand coalition are observed and some insights into the bargaining process are obtained.
37 citations
TL;DR: An interactive computer program designed to facilitate the quantification of a decision maker's preferences for multiple objectives in terms of a multiattribute utility function is described.
Abstract: This paper describes an interactive computer program designed to facilitate the quantification of a decision maker's preferences for multiple objectives in terms of a multiattribute utility function. The program is intended to alleviate many of the operational difficulties with current procedures for assessing and using multiattribute utility functions. The package includes commands for structuring the utility function, assessing single attribute, component utility functions of the overall multiattribute utility function, identifying the preference tradeoffs between attributes, evaluating alternatives, and performing sensitivity analysis. Suggestions for using the program are included.
25 citations
TL;DR: A generalized simulation model of the predation process is described in detail, developed from an experimental analysis of the action and interaction of the basic and subsidiary components of predation.
Abstract: A generalized simulation model of the predation process is described in detail. It was developed from an experimental analysis of the action and interaction of the basic and subsidiary components of predation. Eight qualitatively distinct classes of predation can be identified, together with the biological conditions for each. With that classification, it is possible to compress the complexity into a tested and analytically tractable equation of predation that has broad descriptive power. Such an equation can serve as a building block to develop ecosystem simulations whose stability properties can be explored rigorously.
25 citations
TL;DR: This is the third Ludwig von Bertalanffy Memorial Lecture, delivered at the 1976 Annual Meeting of the Society for General Systems Research in Boston.
Abstract: This is the third Ludwig von Bertalanffy Memorial Lecture, delivered at the 1976 Annual Meeting of the Society for General Systems Research in Boston.
24 citations
TL;DR: In this article, an analytic prediction model for evaluation of the validities of intuited denotative features in componential analyses is outlined and illustrated for a set of concepts referring to time.
Abstract: An analytic prediction model for evaluation of the validities of intuited denotative features in componential analyses is outlined and illustrated for a set of concepts referring to time. The intuited components function as independent variables and the measured affective meanings of the time-related concepts function as dependent variables, both represented in Euclidean spaces. Predictions of attributions of affect from the denotative components proved to have very high predictive, construct and content validities for both the cross-cultural (mean) and the majority of the culture-indigenous interconcept squared distance matrices. Although this model for validity checking is limited to those components which are predictive of affect attribution, the external criterion, it represents a type of social system analysis in which objective culture as reflected in the denotative components for a conceptual domain is related to subjective culture, i.e., evaluative, potency and activity feelings, via the mediation of the cognitive systems of the individual human beings who make the semantic differential judgments. Similarities and differences in both objective (weights given to components) and subjective (variations in affect attribution) cultures can be quantitatively expressed.
TL;DR: This is the first Ludwig von Bertalanffy Memorial Lecture, delivered at the 1974 Annual Meeting of the Society for General Systems Research in New York City.
Abstract: This is the first Ludwig von Bertalanffy Memorial Lecture, delivered at the 1974 Annual Meeting of the Society for General Systems Research in New York City.
TL;DR: The broader theory presented here is new and depends in large part on general living systems considerations on conceptual decomposition of the integrated behavior of a whole organism into less complex subsystems.
Abstract: Some systems ideas applied to individual persons are used to try to explain symptoms of schizophrenia and a syndrome of uncontrolled fragments of movement which sometimes occurs as a side effect of chronic, antipsychotic drug therapy. The behavior of normal organisms may be conceptualized in three echelons of control, with each successively higher echelon organizing, by selective disinhibition, semiautonomous, spontaneous fragments of activity which comprise the next lower echelon. It is hypothesized that schizophrenia involves a deficiency of inhibition by the frontal cortex, first echelon, on the corpus striatum, second echelon. This results first in insufficiently integrated fragments of behavior, and second in premature associative linkages among active elements. First echelon control develops as a normal person matures and gradually loses some of the playful activities of childhood. It is hypothesized that by disrupting certain aspects of activity in the corpus striatum, neuroleptic drugs reduce schizophrenic symptoms but also reduce the capacity of the second echelon to inhibit and integrate the smaller behavioral fragments wired into lower parts of the brain, third echelon. This results in uncontrolled movements. Though many researchers already favor the hypothesis that neuroleptic drugs act on the corpus striatum, the broader theory presented here is new and depends in large part on general living systems considerations. Emphasis is on conceptual decomposition of the integrated behavior of a whole organism into less complex subsystems. Individually, these have neither too much nor too little complexity to yield a plausible model. Some experimental predictions and predictions about possible therapies are made from the theory.
TL;DR: In this article, a modified prisoner's dilemma game with a simulated opponent was studied, where the opponent became the communicator and sent a series of honest promises of cooperation to the subject.
Abstract: Sixty female subjects opposed a simulated opponent in a modified prisoner's dilemma game. At first the subjects communicated threats of a ten-point penalty if the opponent did not cooperate. When subjects did penalize, the opponent could retaliate with 0, 5, 10, or 20 points. After the first penalty and retaliation, the opponent became the communicator and sent a series of honest promises of cooperation to the subject. As hypothesized, subjects whose penalties had been reciprocated with equal retaliation were more cooperative on the first block of promise trials than were 20-point or five-point subjects, but this effect dissipated, presumably because the opponent was not programed to reciprocate with a competitive choice if the promised cooperation was exploited. The opponent in the zero retaliation condition was not significantly less effective with conciliatory promises than the equal retaliation opponent. The study was discussed in terms of the starting and stabilizing functions of the norm of reciprocity in all levels of social systems and in terms of Osgood's graduated and reciprocal initiatives in tension reduction (GRIT) proposal.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors introduce an additional dimension of incompleteness or inaccuracy of information held by the decision maker, and introduce two notions relating to a decision maker's knowledge of states of affairs which may develop.
Abstract: This paper introduces an additional dimension of incompleteness or inaccuracy of information held by the decision maker. Up to this time decision theory, applicable to any level of living system, most usually the organism, has looked at situations in which there were varying degrees of ignorance about the connections between actions selected by the decision maker and the occurrence of states of affairs which the decision maker values to varying degrees. Here are introduced two notions relating to the decision maker's knowledge of states of affairs which may develop. The first is ignorance. A decision maker is ignorant if there are states of affairs which may come about as a consequence of actions open to him, but about whose possibility he is ignorant. The second is error. A decision maker commits error if he makes decisions in the belief that there is a set of outcomes which may occur, but which, in fact, includes some states of affairs which can not occur. The effects of these two types of divergence between the actual and perceived state of the world are examined under some reasonable assumptions. Under conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty, the probability of making mistakes and the expected cost of these mistakes are investigated. The notion of irrationality, it is suggested, can be replaced by the behavioral notion of being in a state of error or ignorance.
TL;DR: The present paper traces the origins of the split between neurophysiology and neuropsychology and suggests that recent work by Pribram may provide a link between the psychology of consciousness, the neurophysiological of movement, and the growing body of work on nonverbal communication.
Abstract: Recent work in neurophysiology has begun to close the paradigmatic gap between neurophysiology and the psychology of embodied behavior and movement. The present paper surveys these developments, traces the origins of the split between neurophysiology and neuropsychology and suggests that recent work by Pribram may provide a link between the psychology of consciousness, the neurophysiology of movement, and the growing body of work on nonverbal communication.
TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of providing discrete step goods is analyzed as a binary choice game, and it is shown that for small ratios of benefits to costs, there is a Condorcet choice solution in which all contribute; for high ratios there is no Condorcets choice; and when the game is expanded to allow a wide range of levels of individual contribution, it ceases to be prisoner's dilemma, although non-contribution may still be the individualistically rational strategy.
Abstract: Many social goods can be provided only in discrete steps rather than over a wide range or continuum of levels. The problems which groups face in voluntarily providing such goods are in some respects peculiarly different from those faced in providing continuous goods. When provision of step goods is analyzed as a binary choice game, it is a prisoner's dilemma. For small ratios of benefits to costs, there is a Condorcet choice solution in which all contribute; for high ratios ironically there is no Condorcet choice. When the game is expanded to allow a wide range of levels of individual contribution, it ceases to be prisoner's dilemma, although noncontribution may still be the individualistically rational strategy. The analysis applies to any group whose members, persons, organizations, nations, any mixture of these, etc., have a common interest in a step good and can calculate benefits and costs of provision of the good.
TL;DR: A solution of the prisoner's dilemma using general metagames is described in this article, where it is shown that cooperation is an equilibrium of the full full metagame, and the metaequilibria derived from this metagame are characterized in general; they are shown to be the symmetric equilibria of the basic game.
Abstract: A solution of the prisoner's dilemma using general metagames is described. The solution is descriptive, not normative. It consists of showing that cooperation is an equilibrium of the full full metagame. The metaequilibria derived from this metagame are characterized in general; they are shown to be the symmetric equilibria of the basic game.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present some cross-cultural data bearing on the theory of structural balance, or more generally clustering, in social relations at the level of the group, which is used to predict the culturally defined ideal combinations of negative avoidance relations and positive joking relations in the G/wi Bushmen kinship system.
Abstract: This paper presents some cross-cultural data bearing on the theory of structural balance, or more generally clustering, in social relations at the level of the group. The theory is used to predict the culturally defined ideal combinations of negative avoidance relations and positive joking relations in the G/wi Bushmen kinship system. The analysis also shows the limits of the tendency toward clustering in this system and relates these limits to intergenerational and interband system and suprasystem requirements. Further applications as well as limitations of the clustering model in the analysis of anthropological data are discussed.
TL;DR: In this paper, a model of the objective complexity of production systems involving a single person and usually some machine is developed, which can be described and measured in terms of a physical component and a mental component.
Abstract: A model of the objective complexity of production systems involving a single person and usually some machine, is developed. Objective complexity can be described and measured in terms of a physical component and a mental component. It is defined as task entropy and measured in terms of information processing rates. Empirical data are offered to validate the model and to postulate a channel capacity theorem. This is the maximum working capacity or total demand which can be placed on a human being and that fraction of capacity which is mobilized for long working periods. The impact of technology on the two components of complexity, taken separately and in combination, is analyzed and discussed.
TL;DR: A mapping sentence is provided for defining the universe of observations for emotional behavior of mice under mild stress, and the smallest space is found to be partitioned into contiguous regions corresponding to the elements of the three facets.
Abstract: A definitional system is given for the concepts of generality and specificity for behavioral variables, relating to signs and sizes of their intercorrelations. In particular, a mapping sentence is provided for defining the universe of observations for emotional behavior of mice under mild stress. Its three content facets are: (a) the temporal features of frequency, latency, and duration, (b) type of control, autonomic or voluntary, and (c) the experimental situation, the apparatus. Data from three studies published previously by other authors are analyzed by Smallest Space Analysis (SSA-I). In each case, the smallest space is found to be partitioned into contiguous regions corresponding to the elements of the three facets.
TL;DR: Laszlo's set theoretic structure is shown to add little to the reduction of semantic difficulties encountered in the development of an explication of the concept of a system, and it is suggested that the construal approach used by Marchal is more useful to produce a rigorous yet functional explications of the term system.
Abstract: This paper examines Laszlo's solution to the semantic problems of system definitions which hinder development of general systems theory. Laszlo's set theoretic structure is shown to add little to the reduction of semantic difficulties encountered in the development of an explication of the concept of a system. It is also suggested that the construal approach used by Marchal is more useful to produce a rigorous yet functional explication of the term system.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors demonstrate an application of the techniques of systems analysis, which have been successful in solving a variety of problems, to the question of nuclear facility siting within the framework of an overall, regional land use plan, a methodology for establishing the acceptability of a combination of site and facility is discussed.
Abstract: This paper attempts to demonstrate an application of the techniques of systems analysis, which have been successful in solving a variety of problems, to the question of nuclear facility siting.
Within the framework of an overall, regional land use plan, a methodology for establishing the acceptability of a combination of site and facility is discussed. The consequences, e.g., the energy produced, thermal and chemical discharges, radioactive releases, aesthetic values, etc., of the site-facility combination are identified and compared with formalized criteria in order to ensure what might be called legal acceptability. Failure of any consequences to satisfy standard requirements results in a feedback channel which works to effect design changes in the facility.
When legal acceptability has been assured, the project enters the public sector for consideration. The responses of individuals and of various interested groups to the external attributes of the nuclear facility gradually emerge. The criteria by which interest groups judge technological advances reflect both rational assessment and unconscious motivations. This process operates on individual, group, societal and international levels and may result in two basic feedback loops: one which might act to change regulatory criteria; the other which might influence facility design or site selection. Such reactions and responses on these levels result in a continuing process of confrontation, collaborative interchange and possible resolution in the direction of an acceptable solution.
Finally, a Paretian approach to optimizing the site-facility combination is presented for the case where there are several possible combinations of site and facility. A hypothetical example of the latter is given, based upon typical preference functions determined for four interest groups.
The article summarizes the research efforts of the Project on Energy systems of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, in Laxenburg, Austria, and its joint research project with the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, on risk assessment.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compared an original experiment with a face-to-face group system which was redone for failure to exert strict controls over an opportunity for sub rosa signaling during decision making.
Abstract: This study contrasts an original experiment with a face-to-face group system which was redone for failure to exert strict controls over an opportunity for sub rosa signaling during decision making with the experiment which later replaced it. The two experimental conditions, identical but for the added control over illicit communication, used an extended form of the prisoners dilemma game. The game was modified to permit both gradations in the level of cooperation and a specific channel for expressing indications of intention to an adversary. While the intended signal did not affect cooperation rates, the condition which made an illicit signal possible did reduce cooperation.
Detailed analysis indicates that a significant degree of illicit signaling, conveyed here through the sound of turning tokens, did occur. Also significant was the tendency for the illicit signal to be used deceptively, i.e., to be used under conditions likely to suggest cooperating, disarming in the current study, rather than defecting (arming) to the other player. The discussion indicates the degree to which opportunities for interparty communication will be grasped, sometimes to the extent of biasing results, in group studies which try to constrict intersubject communication. It shows also that opportunity for deceptive communication within the understood rules does not aggravate conflict as much as similar illicit messages about clandestine happenings.
The findings are relevant to an appreciation of factors affecting noise in the channels of communication in two-party conflicts. Elements of a taxonomy applicable both to the moves of individual subjects and to nation states in conflict situations suggest the relevance of understanding of feedback occurring through unanticipated communication channels.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a model in which the transition fractions are the product of interactions among three sets of economic agents: the organization, its competitors in the manpower market, and its employees.
Abstract: Most fractional flow, manpower planning models devised for the organizational level of systems assume that the transition fractions are either fixed or can be manipulated at will. As neither of these assumptions is very realistic, we present a model in which the transition fractions are the product of interactions among three sets of economic agents: the organization, its competitors in the manpower market, and its employees. The sensitivity of the model is explored and possible extensions are considered. A numerical example illustrates the model's practical applicability.
TL;DR: This is the second Ludwig von Bertalanffy Memorial Lecture, delivered at the 1975 Annual Meeting of the Society for General Systems Research at New York City.
Abstract: This is the second Ludwig von Bertalanffy Memorial Lecture, delivered at the 1975 Annual Meeting of the Society for General Systems Research at New York City.
TL;DR: In this article, a computer simulation of triad decision making was performed which examined four system variables that may affect the group members' satisfaction with the group decision and the groups' difficulty in reaching the decision.
Abstract: A computer simulation of triad decision making was performed which examined four system variables that may affect the group members' satisfaction with the group decision and the groups' difficulty in reaching the decision. These variables were: (1) the decision rule used, (2) the relative similarity of the individual member's initial preference position to the group decision, (3) the initial concordance of the group members' preferences, and (4) the group members' preference strengths. Ego involvement, from Sherif s social judgment theory of attitudes, was found to be a plausible process through which individual preference can influence group decision. This conceptualization of the incorporation of individual preference strength in the group decision was contrasted with the approach of Coleman's theory of collective decisions.
The results of the computer simulation were compared to the results from an experimental simulation of triad decision making obtained by Sung and Castore. Differences and similarities in the two results and their implications for understanding group decision making were discussed and explained.
TL;DR: In this paper, a simulation model of psychological epistemology is presented which explicates the three basic epistemic styles of rationalism, empiricism, and metaphorism, as a test of plausibility, performance of the model is compared to that of subjects in a task involving the relational ordering of nonsense sentences.
Abstract: A case is made for the study of knowledge from a psychological perspective, namely, as the process of knowing. A simulation model of psychological epistemology is presented which explicates the three basic epistemic styles of rationalism, empiricism, and metaphorism. As a test of plausibility, performance of the model is compared to that of subjects in a task involving the relational ordering of nonsense sentences. The implications of psychological epistemology to the behavioral study of the acquisition of knowledge is briefly discussed.
TL;DR: The technique is shown to be particularly advantageous in a situation which is characterized by a paucity of observations available to suppliment a prior expert judgment, and presents a basis for evaluating relative expertise and tracing the learning experience of experts.
Abstract: The advantages of clinical and mechanical combination of observations for prediction are mutually reinforced by an application of Bayesian statistics. The technique is shown to be particularly advantageous in a situation which is characterized by a paucity of observations available to suppliment a prior expert judgment. The approach also presents a basis for evaluating relative expertise and tracing the learning experience of experts. Taking the community as the organizational level of analysis, data on the classification of aged persons in Durham County, North Carolina, and data on the changes in classification of these individuals within the population over time are gathered and studied. These data are combined with clinical judgments of changes as a demonstration of the merits of the technique developed in this paper.