Showing papers in "Systems Research and Behavioral Science in 1981"
TL;DR: In this article, a statistical procedure for the estimation of the parameters of the canonical cusp catastrophe model is presented, which is computationally no more complicated than multiple regression, and is based on the method of moments.
Abstract: Before catastrophe models can achieve scientific legitimacy, they must be subjected to empirical tests with real data. This research report provides the details of a recently developed statistical procedure for the estimation of the parameters of the canonical cusp catastrophe model. The procedure is computationally no more complicated than multiple regression, and is based on the method of moments. As an example of the use of this estimation technique, it is shown that extroversion can be used as a splitting factor in the prediction of driving speed after the ingestion of alcohol. This is an example in which catastrophe theory supplies a nontrivial and successful description of the effect of a higher-level system characteristic (extroversion-introversion) on a lower-level measure of system performance (driving speed). Of course, catastrophe models can be used in and between all system levels.
116 citations
TL;DR: Simulated task environments resembling medical decision problems and strategies for their solution are investigated, and an expected utility maximizer, using Bayes' theorem to combine new data with previous observations, is examined.
Abstract: Simulated task environments resembling medical decision problems and strategies for their solution are investigated. The tasks, which are represented within a computer, contain hypothetical symptoms, diseases, laboratory tests, and treatments, as well as their probabilistic interrelationships. Our objectives are to develop and test strategies for diagnosis and treatment of the diseases. These strategies are also implemented on a computer, and their performance in the medical decision task is evaluated. Within specific tasks, three strategies are examined: (a) an expected utility maximizer, using Bayes' theorem to combine new data with previous observations; (b) a heuristic strategy that searches for satisfactory solutions using informal rules; and (c) a generate-and-test strategy that attempts solutions by using random, trial-and-error searches. The results illustrate the trade-off between decision quality and rule complexity. Potential advantages of simple decision strategies are discussed in a cost-benefit context. Furthermore, the role of knowledge in decision making is also discussed, and the need for explicit models of inductive learning is emphasized. Finally, general implications and possible extensions are noted.
50 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the results of a set of preliminary tests of a collective bargaining model which uses the cusp catastrophe were presented for the group level of living systems, and the results showed that the model can be applied to a large group of individuals.
Abstract: While much interest has been stirred by the apparent face validity of certain catastrophe theory models to describe social situations (see, for example, the entire September 1978 issue til Behavioral Science; Zeeman, 1977; Starobin, 1976; Brown, 1977; Fung, 1980), to date not much empirical testing of such models has been accomplished. For the most part, the lone exception is Zeeman's (1977) examination of prison disturbances. This paper presents the results of a set of preliminary tests of a collective bargaining model which uses the cusp catastrophe. As such, the paper deals with the group level of living systems.
40 citations
TL;DR: Signal detection theory principles are applied to three elementary models in order to develop a butterfly model of equity and productivity in industry and the assumptions underlying the two systems are explored and the need for translations! methodology is explored.
Abstract: Catastrophe theory is a general systems theory for predicting discontinuous change by one of seven elementary topological models. Catastrophe models have been applied to changes involving living and nonliving systems, addressing problems in physics, biology, economics, psychology, and other disciplines. The majority of quantitative successes has occurred with problems involving “hard” data; social modeling, and its inherent data problems, has not been so successful.
In this paper principles of signal detection theory are applied to three elementary models in order to develop a butterfly model of equity and productivity in industry. In the model four sources of information (control dimensions) are processed by the subject, with a dependent spectrum of behavior resulting. The model has implications at the individual and organizational levels.
The signal detection approach involves a conversion from absolute to normative scaling. At the lowest dimension levels catastrophe and regression-produced surfaces are the same. At higher dimensional levels, discrepancies between the two types of surfaces become evident. The paper explores the assumptions underlying the two systems and the need for translations! methodology. Criticisms addressed to social applications of catastrophe theory by Sussman and Zahler (1978) are also considered, along with criticisms of social science theory in general.
37 citations
TL;DR: In this article, implicit value judgments are made in both of these cases and the manner in which they should be addressed is discussed, illustrated with examples from energy facility siting studies.
Abstract: Prescriptive analysis of decision processes of human organisms requires the establishment of scales to indicate the degree to which objectives are achieved. Such scales are either selected from existing measures, such as cost or number of people, or constructed for a specific situation, such as indices of environmental impact or aesthetic degradation. Implicit value judgments are necessarily made in both of these cases. These value judgments are clearly indicated and the manner in which they should be addressed is discussed. The concepts are illustrated with examples from energy facility siting studies.
33 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the evolution and adaptability of living systems at the organizational, societal, and supranational levels are reviewed with an eye toward obtaining constructs applicable to the evolution.
Abstract: Two recent theoretic approaches in physical science are reviewed briefly with an eye toward obtaining constructs applicable to the evolution and adaptability of living systems at the organizational, societal, and supranational levels. These approaches are the modern field theory of critical phenomena in physics and the theory of fluctuations and self-organization of physical-chemical systems far from equilibrium. A number of major constructs, generalizable to both nonliving and living systems, are identified. These constructs are applied prima facie to the description of biological, behavioral, and social phenomena and processes. Some characteristics of the world-system field in the next two decades are envisioned. Several situations that can limit societal systems adaptability are discussed. The distinction between natural societal evolution and human desires and ability for regulation and control is stressed. Knowledge and decisional requirements for long-range planning for a normative evolution are briefly discussed. An attempt is made to convey the need for urgency in dealing with these matters.
20 citations
20 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, role theory and exchange theory are employed to analyze patterns of rhetoric and behavior at the level of societal systems or nations, using a content analysis of speeches by the leaders of these nations and an inventory of foreign policy actions attributed to their nations.
Abstract: In this paper two theories which originated from research at the level of individual organisms or persons, i.e. role theory and exchange theory, are employed to analyze patterns of rhetoric and behavior at the level of societal systems or nations. The data sources include a content analysis of speeches by the leaders of these nations and an inventory of foreign policy actions attributed to their nations.
The analysis incorporates many of the concepts and propositions from role theory, relates them to the principles of exchange theory, and tests some research hypotheses derived from the synthesis of role theory and exchange theory. The findings offer qualified support for these propositions, but various methodological problems associated with merging two data sets for a secondary analysis make the results of these tests heuristic rather than conclusive. However, the analysis does illustrate how a synthesis of role theory and exchange theory might offer some insights into the description and explanation of foreign policy rhetoric and behavior.
Methodologically, a summative aggregation strategy of index construction for role and exchange theory makes it possible to employ a synthesis of these two conceptual systems in the exploration of living systems at two levels: individual and society.
18 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed the utility maximization of approval voting from the viewpoint of expected utility maximizing voters, and argued that it is more equitable than the common plurality voting system.
Abstract: Approval voting is concerned with the decision behavior of organizations and societal systems. As with other voting procedures, it elicits and converts input from voters into a social decision. Under approval voting, each voter in a multicandidate election can vote for as many candidates as he wishes. The candidate with the most votes is elected. Approval voting is analyzed here from the viewpoint of expected utility maximizing voters. Approximately optimal voting strategies are developed. The relative abilities of votes for different numbers of candidates to affect the outcome are assessed, and the issue of equity among voters is addressed. It is argued that approval voting is more equitable than the common plurality voting system.
17 citations
TL;DR: Experiments involving the ability of individuals to manipulate fuzzy labels confirm the need to differentiate individuals according to the mental processes which they summon in response to communication containing fuzzy labels.
Abstract: This paper is concerned with the demands which ambiguity, a form of complexity, places upon the decider, an executive subsystem of living systems. Experiments involving the ability of individuals to manipulate fuzzy labels are described. The results confirm the need to differentiate individuals according to the mental processes which they summon in response to communication containing fuzzy labels. When designing work and decision tasks, attention should be paid to the added complexity brought about by the introduction of ambiguity of task structure and ambiguity of information. Implications for systems design and management are drawn.
15 citations
TL;DR: It is concluded that the concrete approach does not preclude abstracted analysis, but may in fact facilitate such analysis by providing needed empirical grounding and model/data isomorphism.
Abstract: This article compares the efficacy of abstracted systems analysis and concrete systems analysis for the study of society. Arguments for both the abstracted approach and the concrete approach are presented. A number of disadvantages of the abstracted approach are noted which hinder its usefulness as an isolated approach to sociology. These include the difficulty of system boundary determination, and the difficulty of consistently excluding the individual as the unit of analysis. The conclusion is reached that currently sociology needs a holistic model that is isomorphic with the empirical complex society, and that only a concrete systems model will satisfy this need. Such a model has the further advantage that it is easily applicable to the analysis of various system levels such as die individual, group, world, etc The holistic model is evaluated in terms of the arguments for abstracted systems, and is found to be consistent with the aims of adherents of this approach. Thus, it is concluded that the concrete approach does not preclude abstracted analysis, but may in fact facilitate such analysis by providing needed empirical grounding and model/data isomorphism. The article concludes with some thoughts on the need for exploring links between conceptual, abstracted, and concrete systems.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors take Cuzan's original model as its point of departure and use expansion path analysis to evaluate the theory empirically, with encouraging results, using longitudinal data for the same five Central American countries and an historical analysis of the Cuban revolution.
Abstract: In an earlier paper, Cuzan presented a micropolitical model on the relationships between the legitimacy of government, the scope of government, and the level of coercion administered by government to implement its commands; the model was successfully applied to 1974 data from Ave Central American countries. This paper takes Cuzan's original model as its point of departure. It deals with the implementation of decisions in societal systems. It argues that the structure of Cuzan's construction is essentially the same as that of a two-dimensional production function of the type used in micro- and engineering economics. This permits the incorporation of expansion path analysis that is familiar to these disciplines into the political model. Longitudinal data for the same five Central American countries and an historical analysis of the Cuban revolution are used to evaluate the theory empirically, with encouraging results.
TL;DR: Models of information and decision analysis developed by general systems theory are suggested as a method for advancing the understanding of where, when, and how decisions are made by the interdisciplinary team.
Abstract: Decision making in an interdisciplinary team occurs at the interface between groups with varied backgrounds, orientations, interests, and goals. Most interdisciplinary teams attempt to identify the complex set of variables influencing their decisions and then utilize this knowledge to maximize efficiency in health care delivery. Models of information and decision analysis developed by general systems theory are suggested as a method for advancing the understanding of where, when, and how decisions are made by the interdisciplinary team. A university-affiliated psychiatric service in a private general hospital is studied. Here the following forces meet, complement, compete, and collide: the community, university, hospital administration, private practitioners, insurance companies, consultation and liaison psychiatrists, university staff psychiatrists and residents, nurses, aides, social workers, activities personnel, patients and their families, the patient group, the ward milieu. Considering these factors, we describe: (1) the flow of information and feedback loops into, within, and out of the psychiatric service; (2) the location of decision nodes; (3) decision-making echelons. The general systems theory concepts utilized in this analysis are proposed as pragmatic tools for improving interdisciplinary team function.
TL;DR: In this paper, a new experimental paradigm for studying accommodative behavior in two-person groups in which the members did not recognize that they were interdependent, such as the minimal social situation, was proposed.
Abstract: Two experiments were conducted, using a new experimental paradigm for studying accommodative behavior in two-person groups in which the members did not recognize that they were interdependent, such as the minimal social situation. The two studies investigate whether and why a two-person living system can function effectively when the persons who make up the system are uninformed about the true characteristics of their relationship. The experimental paradigm puts a naive subject in interaction with a strategy programmed according to a linear learning model. Predictions were based on the assumption that subjects perceive the minimal social situation as a binary prediction task and act accordingly. The results of the first experiment indicated: (a) that the naive subject learned to make instrumental responses, that is, responses which increase his probability of success as a function of the preprogrammed strategy; (b) that the higher the value of the constant t in the linear learning model was, the more rapidly did learning occur; and (c) that the more complex the instrumental response required was, the less rapidly did learning occur. Furthermore, the results of the second experiment suggest that (a) the general slope of the learning curve is negatively accelerated, and (b) that the possibility of discriminating between instrumental and noninstrumental responses is a more important determinant of learning during the initial phase, whereas the probability that the instrumental response is followed by success is more important on later trials. Finally, the new experimental paradigm proposed here appears to offer a promising tool toward acquiring more insight in the mechanisms of interdependent learning in complex social systems.
TL;DR: In this article, a model of spatial conflict is developed in which the outcome of the conflict is determined by the number of individuals of the same type (e.g., religion, ethnic group, or political belief)adjacent to the conflict.
Abstract: A model of spatial conflict is developed in which the outcome of the conflict is determined by the number of individuals of the same “type”—e.g., religion, ethnic group, or political belief—adjacent to the conflict. The model is discussed with respect to society and supranational systems, but may also be applicable at lower levels. This model is shown to generate territorial grouping out of an initially random distribution of individual types. This model is compared to null models in which the outcome and initiation of conflicts do not depend on spatial relationships and it is shown that these models do not generate territories quickly. A model in which the initiation of conflicts is spatially independent is shown to be able to dissolve existing territorial groupings, which is a result similar to Herz's hypothesis on the demise of territorial states. It is also shown that two types cannot coexist, even with territories, unless they are equal in power. The model is developed as both a computer simulation and a mathematical model; a number of generalizations of the model are suggested which might make it applicable to other social and biological processes.
TL;DR: The early leaver phenomenon in informal groups is well known in industrial situations and is found to be an essential correlate of stability as mentioned in this paper, and the assumptions of the model are tested by computer simulation, the group-1 program, and the results are found to compare well with historical data from natural groups.
Abstract: The existence of human social groups is taken as problematic. What is it that constitutes a group “identity”? What is it that stays the same despite changes in membership? The everyday notion that a group is the same if it stays about the same size and continues to do the same sorts of things is taken seriously. “Size” and “activity” are key variables that must be kept within limits if the group is to maintain its identity. This, in turn, implies a stabilizing process amenable to cybernetic analysis.
From observation and experimentation with natural and laboratory groups, a model of this process is developed. It incorporates mechanisms for preserving values of key variables, and enables us to identify sources of instability. The assumptions of the model are tested by computer simulation, the group-1 program, and the results are found to compare well with historical data from natural groups.
Processes of special interest are a triple size-regulation mechanism, and the appearance of the “early leaver phenomenon” in informal groups. This means that new members have the highest probability of leaving, and this is well known in industrial situations. It is found to be an essential correlate of stability.
TL;DR: An integration of feedforward and feedback control loops is developed in order to meet the specific characteristics of a system in which "environment" can be viewed as the "input," and to provide the adaptive, learning capability which is required by the situation of insufficient data, ignorance of underlying mechanisms, and continuing change.
Abstract: After a brief review of the nature of strategic planning, and the problem of defining health service objectives, the paper concentrates on the question of decision making and "strategic control," in the context of a regional health authority, a system at the level of the organization. The purpose of monitoring is defined in detail. A critical review of concepts of control in various disciplines considers their suitability to the health authority context. An integration of feedforward and feedback control loops is developed in order to meet the specific characteristics of a system in which "environment" can be viewed as the "input," and to provide the adaptive, learning capability which is required by the situation of insufficient data, ignorance of underlying mechanisms, and continuing change.
TL;DR: The totality of human knowledge is a single system because human brains are genetically alike and the real world is fundamentally the same for all human beings.
Abstract: Human knowledge and the human learning process is a very special system, unique to the universe that we know about, and cannot be described in terms of any other system of which we are aware. Human knowledge is the result of the interaction of the human brain, artifacts, and the real world. It consists of structures within the human brain that are coded with information. The totality of human knowledge is a single system because human brains are genetically alike and the real world is fundamentally the same for all human beings. The processes by which the structures that constitute human knowledge in human brains are formed, i.e., human learning, are still very mysterious, and all that we know about human learning can be written in a few simple propositions.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the implications of logit-based choice models for the input-transducer and output transducer functions of an organization (in their application, a university) for college selection and recruitment of college-bound high school seniors in southern Illinois.
Abstract: The authors examine the implications of logit-based choice models for the input-transducer and output-transducer functions of an organization (in their application, a university). Logit models, defined as causal statistical models in -which the dependent variable is the odds that a particular event occurs, can be used to predict outcomes when deciders must choose among discrete alternatives (as in selecting a college or university). Unlike previous logit studies, the role of information flows between the organization and organisms outside the organization (potential students) is considered. It is shown that: (1) Static conditional logit models may yield inaccurate selection probabilities if, in reality, selection is made by recursive elimination of alternatives with new information added after each elimination; (2) a sequential unordered logit model can be developed which permits adjustment of the choice set during the information collection process; (3) this model can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of marketing policies. The model is applied to college selection and recruitment of college-bound high school seniors in southern Illinois.
TL;DR: Some suggested ways of indexing, classifying, and mapping interrelationships between general systems theory and the conventional fields of a number of academic disciplines are dealt with.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to show some foundations for a systematic analysis and synthesis of knowledge organizations. It deals with some suggested ways of indexing, classifying, and mapping interrelationships between general systems theory and the conventional fields of a number of academic disciplines.
A content analysis of several issues of the International Journal of General Systems is carried out to separate the content into an array or relatively independent subjects. It was found that the issues of the journal that were examined could be described using six broad descriptors: mathematical theory, philosophical theory, systems theory, systems methodology, social theory, and general theory. Each of these broad descriptors could be further categorized to lend specificity.
TL;DR: An overview of the modeling process is presented, which is then used to suggest a means of developing a typology of metamodels in collective bargaining, which helps to categorize existing models and pinpoints gaps which indicate that new forms of analysis may be needed.
Abstract: This paper presents an overview of the modeling process, which is then used to suggest a means of developing a typology of metamodels in collective bargaining. The typology helps to categorize existing models and it pinpoints gaps which indicate that new forms of analysis may be needed. The paper is epistemological in nature and deals with conceptual systems across several levels of abstraction. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of the current major categories of bargaining theory are presented. The paper focuses on the human activity at the group level and deals with the decider subsystem.
TL;DR: It is shown that the procedure is Pareto optimal (efficient), and that the size of the effective minority increases with the influence value, and thatinsincere voting is not generally advantageous when the insincere voter has no information about the utilities and voting strategies of the other voters.
Abstract: A decision procedure called utility value voting is considered in which each of several voters provides utility values for each of several candidates. These utility values from each voter are normalized by a positive linear transformation so that a largest normalized value is unity and the smallest is a preassigned nonnegative number less than unity. This number is called the “influence” for the voter. The decision is made using a probability mixture that maximizes the geometric mean of the expected utilities for the voters.
It is shown that the procedure is Pareto optimal (efficient), and that the size of the effective minority increases with the influence value. Examples are included to show that insincere voting is not generally advantageous when the insincere voter has no information about the utilities and voting strategies of the other voters.
The procedure and its results are illustrated by an engineering design example, where ten teams of scientists were the voters, and by a personnel selection example, where the 27 attributes of each candidate were the voters. The system can be used by a single person, as in the personnel selection example, or by an organization of any size, as in the ten-voter engineering design example.
TL;DR: For the inpatient psychiatric unit, the 19 critical subsystems of general living systems theory are described, with special emphasis on the decider subsystem.
Abstract: A university-affiliated psychiatric inpatient unit in a private general hospital is an organization which serves many purposes. However, the primary purpose is quite evident: to provide various psychiatric therapies to patients with diverse psychopathologies. This becomes extremely complicated if the unit attempts an eclectic approach. Thus, the unit must consider: (1) psychopathological frameworks such as genetic, sociocultural, psychoanalytic, behavioral, and biochemical etiologies; (2) therapeutic interventions such as individual, group, and family therapy; insight-oriented, supportive, and behavioral psychotherapy; milieu therapy; and psychopharmacological treatment; (3) the various philosophies, attitudes, and skills of the multidisciplinary team of psychiatrists, psychologists, nurses, aides, social workers, activities therapists, expressive therapists, and administrative support personnel. General systems theory and general living systems models may further the conceptualization and understanding of the inpatient unit. This, in turn, may improve patient treatment. For the inpatient psychiatric unit, we describe the 19 critical subsystems of general living systems theory, with special emphasis on the decider subsystem.
TL;DR: It is shown that the claimed accuracy of this method results partly from arithmetic errors, and, in general, it is impossible to achieve this accuracy with any reasonably high confidence.
Abstract: The method of prediction of results of chess championship matches suggested by Saaty and Vargas (1980) is examined. It is shown that the claimed accuracy of this method results partly from arithmetic errors, and, in general, it is impossible to achieve this accuracy with any reasonably high confidence.
TL;DR: This experiment tested James Grier Miller's hypothesis that decision time will vary as a function of the degree of difference in a command array, and the results tended to support the hypothesis at both the organism and group level.
Abstract: This paper describes a cross-level experiment at the levels of the individual person and group. Using a microcomputer to interact with subjects, this experiment tested James Grier Miller's hypothesis that decision time will vary as a function of the degree of difference in a command array. The results tended to support the hypothesis at both the organism and group level.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors deal with the socioeconomic dimension of creativity in technology organization and economy, and they find evidence that creativity is a wasted resource in the development of social systems, but they also identify obstacles to creativity in the following stages: formation of creative personalities, creation period, and realization period.
Abstract: This paper deals with the socioeconomic dimension of creativity in technology organization and economy. Creativity is decisive for the development of social systems, but one finds evidence that creativity is a wasted resource. Obstacles to creativity have been identified over the following stages: formation of creative personalities, creation period, and realization period; and on four levels: growth of productive forces, economic relations and interests, institutions, and mental or ideological factors. World, society, organizations, groups, and individuals and their interaction are the objects of social creativity research. Measurement of creativity in the stages research, development, and introduction and improvement uses four dimensions: results, process, personal characteristics, and level of participation. Creativity is closely connected with its counterpart: routine experience. In an organization the innovation potential plays an important role, together with such determinants as strategic orientation, capacity for current production operations, and level of cooperation and coordination.
TL;DR: It is suggested that conventional predictions understate the actual limit of aspiration and that theactual limit is defined in terms of the maxmax and minmax values rather than maxmrin value.
Abstract: This paper presents a theory which defines the characteristics of an outcome that is acceptable to a negotiator in the decider subsystem of a human, group, organization, society, or supranational system. It is generally held that any outcome that a negotiator finds to be preferred to his level of aspiration is acceptable. The theoretical issue is to establish the lowest level of aspiration a negotiator could have in a given situation. Conventional theory suggests that the lowest level of aspiration is the security level value or outcome a negotiator guarantees himself in the absence of an agreement. This paper suggests that conventional predictions understate the actual limit of aspiration and that the actual limit is defined in terms of the maxmax and minmax values rather than maxmrin value. The predictions of the theory are compared to experimental results, and no substantiated counter-examples were found.
TL;DR: The use of mathematics in systems science has been criticized by several recent authors, and a dynamic balance between qualitative and quantitative descriptions must be achieved in any evolving, scientific discipline.
Abstract: The use of mathematics in systems science has been criticized by several recent authors. Mathematics has been and will continue to be a set of useful tools for scientists in any field, including systems science. However, mathematics should not be glorified to the point of becoming the end result of scientific research. A dynamic balance between qualitative and quantitative descriptions must be achieved in any evolving, scientific discipline.