Showing papers in "Systems Research and Behavioral Science in 1982"

A dynamic model of protocoalition formation in ideological n-space

Abstract: Axelrod's (1970) notion of “connected coalition” is generalized to the N-dimensional case, and a simple but powerful model of coalition dynamics is put forth which generates connected coalitions with certainty in the unidimensional case and which usually, but not necessarily, gives rise to minimal winning coalitions. Political decision making is discussed at the levels of the group, organization, society, and supranational system. Unlike most other models in the coalition literature, the model presented: (a) is based on notions of ideological policy proximity rather than on notions such as least resources or zero-sum conflict; (b) posits a dynamic process of protocoalition formation which permits two actors to join in a (proto)coalition only when each is the other's most preferred partner; and (c) for sufficient information about the policy preferences/ideological views of the political actors, yields unique predictions as to which coalition can be expected to form.

Inside every white box there are two black boxes trying to get out

Abstract: The nature of the blackness of a black box (when an observer does not know what is going on inside the black box) and its whiteness (when an observer believes that he knows what is going on inside the black box) is considered and is applied to a description that is built by an observer of that black box. It is shown that while whiteness may be believed to have been reached within a system, such a system, nevertheless, remains black on the outside. This understanding is considered because it sheds light not only on black boxes and knowledge, but also on certain very basic cybernetic and broad psychological concepts.

Moderator regression and the cusp catastrophe: Application of two‐stage personnel selection, training, therapy, and policy evaluation

Abstract: This article demonstrates the applicability of the cusp catastrophe model to a two-stage validity study for personnel selection which can simultaneously assess the success of a training program. Personnel selection is of interest substantively since its literature spans psychology, education, economics, management science, political philosophy, statistics, and psychometric theory. The basic problem is, in turn, pertinent to the study of any individuals integrating into an organization, or a therapy or social program. In an empirical example regression coefficients for conventional and cusp-difference models were compared using partially real and partially simulated data. Subjects were 272 salespersons from a Midwestern firm, of which 17 were Spanish-speaking Americans. Group membership was the dummy coded bifurcation (moderator) factor. A composite of personality and ability test scores was the asymmetry factor. The cusp model was a more efficient predictor of performance (R2 = .39) than the moderator model (R2 = .04) or a control equation using a bimodal transformation (R2 = .04). It was also possible to obtain implicit discriminant functions (IDFS) to predict the top performing 16% of the sample (R2 = .71), and the low performing 16% (R2 = .95). The results were interpreted as supporting the usefulness of the statistical catastrophe models for two-stage personnel selection and training, and similar problems. Differential impact, moderator, and interaction effects in organizational literature were discussed vis-a-vis the bifurcation concept.

A catastrophe model of organizational change

Abstract: Change in an organizational practice may occur rapidly or slowly. Social scientists have paid little attention to rates of social change; yet the rate of an organizational change can be as important for an organization as its content. Drawing on catastrophe theory, a “cusp catastrophe” model of organizational change is developed deductively. This model relates an organization's choice of practice to the degree of pressure for change and resistance to change. Five conditions are identified which must be met in order for the model to hold. Two general ways of using the model are suggested: working within the model to affect the incidence and rapidity of change, and influencing the conditions upon which the model rests to produce alternative change dynamics. Methods of empirically testing the model and the applicability of the model to other system levels are considered.

The earth as a system

Abstract: The planet Earth is a mixed living and nonliving system. It is the suprasystem of all supranational systems as well as the total ecological system, with all its living and nonliving components. The Earth is studied in this article in terms of a general theory of all concrete systems, with special attention to the important subset of living systems. The Earth is an open system, interacting with its atmosphere and with matter and energy in space. Its systemwide processes and the processes of its various components, as well as their variables and indicators, are discussed. In the light of known facts about the Earth as a system, consideration is given to future worldwide problems which must be dealt with by human planners and statesmen.

Color matching and shift work: An industrial application of the cusp‐difference equation

Abstract: This paper considers a practical problem involving a multilevel system: color perception of individual human beings, man-machine interactions, and changing social factors. Previous research on individuals found a significant but noncritical decline in performance on a color name interference task from noon to 8 p.m. compared to other times of the day. The hypothesis now tested is whether critical diffences in color-matching efficiency for a group occur over a 24-hour period. Subjects were 13 color matchers and 30 printers who worked rotating shifts. Data were drawn from production records for 38 pairs of multicolor jobs performed over three four-week (accounting) periods. Data were analyzed via a cusp catastrophe model for two criteria: color matching time (R2 =.99) and printing paper wasted (R2 =.98). Job length was the bifurcation factor. Accounting period was the asymmetry factor, which was interpreted in terms of organizational dynamics that were taking place. Thecentral conclusion was that critical differences in color-matching efficiency could be observed over a 24-hour period when certain social or task factors are operating.

Structure and self-organization

Abstract: This paper seeks to clarify the nature and significance of structuralisms. The doctrine of structuralism is regarded here as synonymous with that of holism. It transcends the traditional dichotomy between form, or the static configuration of a system's components, and function, or the process of dynamic change in that system. Viewed from the broader holistic perspective, the relationship between form and function is of a mutually causal nature. The thesis is advanced here that the emergence of structure lies in the process of self-organization. Conversely, it is the structure of the system which makes it self-organizing. The origin of a wide variety of technological, organizational, and social innovations is to be found in the interplay of structure and self-organization. The theory is developed and illustrated at several levels of systems. Its implications for a transdisciplinary synthesis of knowledge are discussed.

Systems simulation artificial intelligence based simulations of foreign policy decision making

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to illustrate how techniques from artificial intelligence can be used at the level of the society to aid in the construction of philosophically adequate theories of the foreign policy behavior of governments. A distinction between teleological and causal explanation is drawn which suggests that human intentional action cannot be adequately explained by an exclusive reliance on causal factors. Given the common characterization of foreign policy as a goal-directed activity, the challenge is to combine causal and teleological explanations of foreign policy behavior. Artificial intelligence based computer simulation techniques are examined as a potential vehicle for combining these two approaches to explanation. Two computer simulations illustrating the combination of causal and teleological approaches to explaining governmental decision making are examined and discussed.

A Descriptive Model of Choice for Siting Facilities

Abstract: The siting of facilities for large-scale, novel technologies presents a formidable challenge to politcal risk management. This paper develops a model for describing the decision process for this type of problem at the level of societal systems. It explicitly considers the role of the relevant interested parties, each of whom brings to the siting debate its own set of objetives and attributes. We have labeled the approach a multiattribute multiparty model (MAMP to distinguish it from prescriptive techniques such as multiattribute utility analysis or decision analysis). The MAMP model is a natural extension of the burgeoning literature on the key role that limited time, attention, and information processing capabilities play in political decision making when there are uncertain outcomes and likely conflicts among interested parties. The model also highlights the importance of decentralized and sequential decision making and indicates the role that formal risk assessments have played at each stage of the process. We illustrate its application in the context of the decision proess associated with a proposed liquiefied natural gas terminal in California. The concluding portion of this paper suggests future rsearch needs for improving the credibility of analysis and facilitating collective action with respect to facility siting problems.

A geometric model of anorexia and its treatment

Abstract: Anorexia is a severe psychological disorder in which a person's dieting turns into compulsive fasting. Some victims develop, after a time, a bulimic phase; their fasting is interrupted at intervals by bouts of indiscriminate gorging. One successful treatment makes use of a naturally occurring trance state, in which the anorexic's obsession with food recedes temporarily, to offer reassurance and rebuild a personality free of the obsession. The proposed model is catastrophe-theoretic. It assumes (a) that the bifurcation of eating attitudes typical of anorexia can be modeled by a cusp whose controls are hunger and eating regimen; and (b) that the normal cycle of falling asleep and waking up can be modeled by a hysteresis loop controlled by alertness. Catastrophe theory predicts two additional controls, and a larger model organized by the E6 singularity. The new controls are identified with loss of self-control and insecurity, and anorexia is correlated with high insecurity. The model makes the following predictions. First, under moderate levels of self-control and eating regimen, an anorexic has access to balanced, nonobsessive attitudes toward food at a reduced level of wakefulness. This is the trance state. Second, a healthy individual has two distinct sleep modes, dominated by cerebral and somatic elements, respectively. Third, with increasing insecurity the distinct modes fuse together, so that an anorexic's sleep patterns are abnormal. The model is geometric because the connection between behavior and controlling factors is made by graphs of certain standard form.

Revolutionary change and strategic management

Abstract: Based on empirical and theoretical research in organizations, cybernetics, biology, psychiatry, logic, and learning theory, this paper proposes a definition of revolutionary change and discusses the characteristics of such a change. This paper applies to decision making in the organization. It concludes with a discussion of the role of revolutionary change in strategic management.

Absorbing outcomes in 2 × 2 games

Abstract: This paper addresses the question of the stability, or absorbing properties, of conceptual systems involving two significant players. “Absorbing outcomes” are defined in the 41 2 × 2 ordinal games without nonmyopic equilibria (i.e., long-term stable outcomes) and classified into four mutually exclusive categories. These categories are based on the movements rational players—who may be individuals, groups, or higher-level living systems—would make from worst, next-worst, and next-best outcomes in these games, allowing for the deletability of some movements. Absorbing outcomes, at some level, are shown to exist in all 41 games, but not all are equally defensible as stable outcomes. Conditions for determining them are generally applicable to identifying nonmyopic equilibria in the 37 2 × 2 games that contain them, though they would not show up the cooperative outcomes in the games of prisoners' dilemma and chicken. Absorbing outcomes do not necessarily coincide with the concept of a Nash equilibrium, or a myopically stable outcome, which also has an interpretation based on the movements of rational players in a 2 × 2 game. Nevertheless, in games without nonmyopic equilibria, absorbing outcomes do seem to capture the idea of long-term stability better than Nash equilibria when alternating, sequential moves by players are allowed.

Teleonomic entropy in biopsychosocial systems

Abstract: The concept of entropy has been developed from, and has usually been applied to, systems on one level. Due to its unifying potential, however, interest in applying entropy to, complex multilevel systems as well has recently increased. The concept's distributional and statistical formulations, nevertheless, have little relevance to the apparently purposeful, decision-making properties of complex living systems. In order to make it more suitable for understanding the functioning of such biopsychosocial systems (particularly organisms, groups, organizations, and societies), its definition has to be extended. This paper introduces the new concept of teleonomic entropy. In order to distinguish this generalized concept from that of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics, we shall refer to the latter as physicochemical entropy. Teleonomic entropy at the physicochemical level is related to, but not identical to, physicochemical entropy.

The empirical identification of fifty-one core general systems theory vocabulary components

Abstract: This paper identifies 51 key general systems theory (GST) vocabulary components based on a sample of 400 GST articles. The sources of the articles studied were 2183 published works which make up the core of the GST literature. In addition, the paper presents both a descriptive and a factor-analytic grouping of the words. It is hoped that this work will serve as a core document for generating a dictionary of GST terms, the final goal being improved communication among GST researchers through the standardization of terminology. As such, the paper addresses James Grier Miller's call for the development of a general systems vocabulary and the paper applies to all system levels. Hence, it is of value in the development of cross-level hypotheses.

Personality as a complex informationprocessing system

Abstract: One of the major challenges for psychology in the coming decades is to present integrative conceptualizations of various psychological processes (e.g., cognition, values, etc.). The purpose of this paper is to present a system-theoretic conception of the organized complexities of human personality. A complex hierarchical information processing system (CHIPS) is described as a nonrandom organization of subsystems and components among which there is: (a) goal direction; (b) regulation of uncertainty; (c) interdependence; (d) macrodeterminism; and (e) increasing hierarchicalization over the life span. While our focus is at the level of the organism, these characteristics attributed to a CHIPS are considered to be basic characteristics of living systems at all levels. Personality is conceptualized as an integrative composite of six interacting systems (sensory, motor, cognition, affect, style, and value), each of which has these characteristics. Various properties and principles relevant to this conception of integrative personality as a complex system are discussed and illustrated. It is pointed out that modern systems theory has given too little attention to the problem of developmental change, and a metamorphogenetic model of development is proposed and illustrated in the present paper.

The internal security subsystem

Abstract: Internal security processes protect all levels of living systems from error and disruption produced by internal and external factors. Such processes allow organizations to survive and evolve in a hostile environment. An internal security subsystem may be present at each level of organization recognized for living systems: cell, organ, organism, group, organization, society, and supranational system. In order for internal security processes to be effective, they must ordinarily maintain steady relationships with the other 19 processes which are critical to living systems (Miller, 1978). Optimal levels of security effectiveness exist which maximize the probability of system success. Too much security results in rigidity so the system cannot evolve or adapt to environmental changes, while too little security results in chaos so the system cannot survive. A catastrophe model can be used to describe the relationships between probability of system success, system health, and effectiveness of security processes.

A competitive test of the core solution in side‐payment games

Abstract: This study investigates multiperson decision making in group systems. An experiment was conducted to test the core solution against other theories of payoff allocation in n-person games. Five hundred seventy-six subjects participated in three-person cooperative, superadditive, side-payment games with nonempty core. The manipulated experimental variables included core size, location of the equality payoff vector with respect to the core, and strength of the 23 coalition. Results indicate that the core solution has greater predictive accuracy in games having small rather than large cores and in games with the equality vector located inside rather than outside the core. More important, the results show that the core solution is less accurate than the Shapley, nucleolus, and disruption nucleolus solutions. These findings cast doubt regarding the empirical accuracy of the core solution in side-payment games.

A stochastic model of committee voting with exogenous costs: Theory and experiments†

Abstract: This paper develops a model which provides a rational, game-theoretic explanation for the experimentally observed phenomenon that committees often stop and adopt some outcome before all the dominating alternatives have been considered The model is then tested experimentally on three-person majority rule committees with induced preferences making decisions under strict Roberts Rule of Order (1970) The model is an extension of the stochastic solution concept to a committee which faces real decision costs The major result is that decision costs may significantly alter the distribution of outcomes predicted by the stochastic solution if an endogenous decision-theoretic stopping rule is allowed In particular, if a fully dominating core exists, it will not be chosen with probability 1 in the presence of decision costs In the experiments, the probability of choosing a core which dominates all other alternatives is reduced to almost one half The experimental outcomes are consistent with the distribution predicted by the model and not consistent with a variety of other solution concepts without costs, which all predict the dominating core

A network analysis of departmental prestige based on the origins of faculty degrees

Abstract: This paper deals with networks of personnel recruitment at the organization level. A triad census and a CONCOR blocking algorithm are applied to a matrix of origin of Ph.D. degree by current employment for 48 selected graduate departments of sociology. The results reveal that conventional reputation (prestige) hierarchy models are of limited utility in describing the actual decision making concerning hiring by departments. Regional and specialty similarities influence the observed patterns greatly. These findings suggest that interorganizational networks can be investigated fruitfully with many of the same theories and methodologies previously used only in the study of interpersonal networks.

Auto-organization in human systems

Abstract: The development of thermodynamics and cybernetics and their impact upon our world view and scientific episteme are discussed. The author proposes a new model of auto-organization in human systems, discussing the six subprocesses of autopoietic auto-organization and presenting a new typology of control processes. On the basis of this model the generation, maintenance, transformation, and solution of both normdeviant and normal behavior are discussed. Auto-organization is seen as one of 12 process patterns to be found in every transactional field. The description of these process patterns is suggested to be the basis for the development of a systemic ecoanthroplogy, i.e., a systemic theory of man in his world and with his world.

Computational and noncomputational clinical information processing by computer.

Abstract: Computers have been used in their computational as well as noncomputational modes for the scientific study of the clinical decision making. As computational tools, computers serve as storage devices for hospital file data so that these data can be analyzed statistically for a large variety of epidemiological and diagnostic purposes. As noncomputational devices, computers are functioning as knowledgable medical teachers that interface with students who can query the system. In this mode, computers are sometimes used as consultants to clinicians who need information on technical topics. Noncomputational computers are also used to simulate the inferences of clinicians. Byproducts of these simulations are computer programs that become formal statements or theories of the decision processes under investigation.

Dyadic systems analysis

Abstract: This paper presents a formal system of dyadic cognition and communication. The formal system is a model for the two-person group, or dyad. The dyad is discussed formally as being composed of six subsystems, or state structures, which represent the states of a first-order stochastic process. Some exploratory data are presented which reveal that some axioms appear accurate, while anomalies suggest additional axioms. The implications of this formal system for future research extend across system levels from two-person systems to national systems.

Evaluating theoretical predictions in the social sciences: Coalition theories and other models†

Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of how a researcher might evaluate the accuracy of theoretical predictions in the social sciences. Using theories of coalition systems as an example of specific and apparently easily testable models, the paper argues that judgment of the absolute accuracy of a prediction remains a value judgment. In addition, a strict value judgment can potentially lead to the rejection of a theory and its underlying assumptions even when those assumptions may have, at the very least, considerable heuristic value. While most models in the social sciences would benefit from greater specificity in their predictions, the general thrust of specific coalition models would benefit from greater attention. Combining a general conceptual structure with a set of specific, falsifiable predictions makes for excellent theory and potentially greater research progress.

Application of living systems process analysis to army organizations: A review and critique

Abstract: This paper reviews the first major application of living systems theory (LST) at the level of the organization. The research, based on data from more than 5000 respondents in 35 U.S. Army battalions in the United States and West Germany, examines the relationship between conventional assessments of organizational effectiveness and evaluations of LST processes. The research findings indicate that living systems process analysis (LSPA) provides a methodology for understanding the dynamics of organizational effectiveness and for diagnosing problems which can impede this effectiveness. Also considered are difficulties encountered in attempting to derive an empirically relevant methodology from living systems theory.

Power and importance in a theory of lobbying

Abstract: Who are the powerful, important, or key figures in a sociopolitical or economic body? And whom should a lobbyist, who seeks to minimize his effort, select to approach and promote a decision he favors? These are related but not identical questions Answers to the first question are attempted by using various indices of power in the literature (Shapley & Shubik, 1954; Banzhaf, 1965; Young, 1978) They typically investigate the a priori power of a decision-making body's member, ie, without knowing what issue is at stake, and, hence, before knowing the opinions of the other members The lobbyist, on the other hand, while considering the members' a priori power must also pay attention to their given opinions concerning the particular resolution at stake That gives rise to a definition of a member's importance: the sensitivity of the resolution's probability of success if this member were to change his mind, given the opinions of the other members In other words, the most important person is the one who, if he changed his mind, would matter most It transpires that power and importance may be held by different persons The lobbyist, who tries to change the members' minds using his limited resources, must also take into account the members' susceptibility to influence The lobbyist's problem is discussed and analyzed within the framework of simple games enhanced by influence functions which are the production functions of lobbying

Expansions: a study in the unity of science.

Abstract: This article attempts to establish some of the general laws relating to spatial aspects of general systems theory, i.e., how forces, impulses, and ideas (matter, energy, and information) spread, diversify, and compete with one another, and how the earlier history of observed structures can be traced by backtracking. Principles that have long been accepted for nonliving and low-level living systems are recognized in the activities of individual human beings, groups, and supranational systems.