Technological Forecasting and Social Change 

About: Technological Forecasting and Social Change is an academic journal. The journal publishes majorly in the area(s): Technological change & Futures studies. It has an ISSN identifier of 0040-1625. Over the lifetime, 6110 publication(s) have been published receiving 203633 citation(s).

The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?

Abstract: We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupations probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment.

Functions of innovation systems: A new approach for analysing technological change

Abstract: The central idea of this paper is that innovation systems are a very important determinant of technological change. We describe that the emergence of a new innovation system and changes in existing innovation systems co-evolve with the process of technological change. Therefore, it is necessary to create more insight in the dynamics of innovation systems. Traditional methods of innovation system analysis that mainly focus on the structure of innovation systems have proven to be insufficient. Therefore, we propose a framework that focuses on a number of processes that are highly important for well performing innovation systems. These processes are labeled as dfunctions of innovation systemsT. After explaining this framework and embedding it in existing literature, we propose a method for systematically mapping those processes taking place in innovation systems and resulting in technological change. This method can be characterized as a process analysis or history event analysis. Clarifying examples are taken from the empirical field of Sustainable Technology Development.

Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization

Abstract: This paper presents an overview of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios that form the analytical backbone for other contributions to this Special Issue. We first describe the motivation behind this scenario exercise and introduce the main scenario features and characteristics, in both qualitative and quantitative terms. Altogether, we analyze three ‘baseline’ scenarios of different socio-economic and technological developments that are assumed not to include any explicit climate policies. We then impose a range of climate stabilization targets on these baseline scenarios and analyze in detail the feasibility, costs and uncertainties of meeting a range of different climate stabilization targets in accordance with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The scenarios were developed by the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modeling Framework that encompasses detailed representations of the principal GHG-emitting sectors—energy, industry, agriculture, and forestry. The main analytical findings from our analysis focus on the implications of salient uncertainties (associated with scenario baselines and stabilization targets), on feasibility and costs of climate stabilization efforts, and on the choice of appropriate portfolios of emissions abatement measures. We further analyze individual technological options with regards to their aggregated cumulative contribution toward emissions mitigation during the 21st century as well as their deployment over time. Our results illustrate that the energy sector will remain by far the largest source of GHG emissions and hence remain the prime target of emissions reduction. Ultimately, this may lead to a complete restructuring of the global energy system. Climate mitigation could also significantly change the relative economics of traditional versus new, more climate friendly products and services. This is especially the case within the energy system, which accounts for the largest share of emissions reductions, but it is also the case in the agriculture and forestry sectors, where emissions reduction and sink enhancement measures are relatively more modest.

A simple substitution model of technological change

Abstract: Summary A substitution model of technological change based upon a simple set of assumptions has been advanced. The mathematical form of the model is shown to fit existing data in a wide variety of substitutions remarkably well. It is suggested that the model can prove useful to a number of types of investigations, such as: forecasting technological opportunities, recognizing the onset of technologically based catastrophes, investigating the similarities and differences in innovative change in various economic sectors, investigating the rate of technical change in different countries and different cultures, and investigating the limiting features to technological change.

Technology roadmapping—A planning framework for evolution and revolution

Abstract: Technology roadmapping is a flexible technique that is widely used within industry to support strategic and long-range planning. The approach provides a structured (and often graphical) means for exploring and communicating the relationships between evolving and developing markets, products and technologies over time. It is proposed that the roadmapping technique can help companies survive in turbulent environments by providing a focus for scanning the environment and a means of tracking the performance of individual, including potentially disruptive, technologies. Technology roadmaps are deceptively simple in terms of format, but their development poses significant challenges. In particular the scope is generally broad, covering a number of complex conceptual and human interactions. This paper provides an overview of the origins of technology roadmapping, by means of a brief review of the technology and knowledge management foundations of the technique in the context of the fields of technology strategy and technology transitions. The rapidly increasing literature on roadmapping itself is presented in terms of a taxonomy for classifying roadmaps, in terms of both organizational purpose and graphical format. This illustrates the flexibility of the approach but highlights a key gap—a robust process for technology roadmapping. A fast-start method for technology roadmapping developed by the authors is introduced and described. Developed in collaboration with industry, this method provides a means for improved understanding of the architecture of roadmaps and for rapidly initiating roadmapping in a variety of organizational contexts. This paper considers the use of the roadmaps from two main perspectives. The first is a company perspective: roadmaps that allow technology developments to be integrated with business planning, and the impact of new technologies and market developments to be assessed. The second perspective is multiorganizational: roadmaps that seek to capture the environmental landscape, threats and opportunities for a particular group of stakeholders in a technology or application area. Two short illustrative cases show the fast-start method in use in the context of disruptive technological trends from these two perspectives.