Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 1971"

TL;DR: In this article, a substitution model of technological change based upon a simple set of assumptions has been presented, and the mathematical form of the model is shown to fit existing data in a wide variety of substitutions remarkably well.

TL;DR: A mathematical model is developed which provides a basis for the extrapolation of technological performance figures-of-merit, and the resulting equation which describes the rate of technological progress has the form of a logistic curve.

TL;DR: An on-line (computer-automated) conference that was conducted for thirteen weeks in the spring of 1970 was to evaluate potential applications of this type of conference system and to critique the author's design of the particular system in use.

TL;DR: The theoretical justification for the use of a particular analytical relation for calculating inferences from answers to cross impact questions is presented and the potential utilization of cross impact as a modeling tool for the analyst and a consistency analysistool for the decision maker is discussed.

TL;DR: In this article, an elementary cross-impact model where the cross-impacts are formulated as relative probabilities is presented, and conditions for the consistency of the matrix of relative probabilities of n events are derived for the vector of absolute probabilities to be consistent with the relative probability matrix.

TL;DR: In this article, the applicability of a deterministic model which was developed by Mansfield and which describes the rate at which new product innovations are adopted was applied to the commercial aircraft jet engine market.

TL;DR: The results of fitting appropriate trend curves to several sets of data on technologies of interest to the Air Force represent technological forecasts and have implications for R&D planning.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide data related to population growth, energy consumption, and life-support capabilities in a format designed specifically to satisfy the technologist, emphasizing the need for engineers and scientists to become aware of the importance of their work, and to stimulate thought regarding the relationship between technology and the ultimate quality of life.

TL;DR: Simulation of a representative industrial research laboratory and the effect on future laboratory operations of matching an exploratory forecast of the laboratory's output to an exogenous goal schedule set by normative forecasts of future requirements found the laboratory operating policies were found to be different from those which would have been intuitively expected to produce stable growth.

TL;DR: Procedures are developed which allow an estimation to be made of the uncertainty associated with Delphi forecasts and which allow the judgment and intuition of the decisionmaker using the forecast to be incorporated into and impact upon the forecast results.

TL;DR: The proposed methodology sets up a logical sequence for the thought process that is to be employed in analogy-making, and provides a critical evaluation for possible analogies.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors presented a general overview of the environment and major evolutionary elements of the marine transportation system over the next 30 years and presented a preliminary development schedule of the major projects that could contribute toward the United States again becoming a leading maritime nation.

TL;DR: The state of the art in subjective methodology is summarized in this paper, and viewpoints and insights into the nature of forecasting and subjective methodologies are offered, all of which are based on the fundamental idea that subjective data and processes are built into forecasting.

TL;DR: In this article, the techniques of Operations Research and Systems Analysis dealing with decisions in the face of risk and uncertainty are being applied, and new developments in cost-estimating methodology have been started.

TL;DR: In this article, an analysis of the relationship between average unit prices and several causal factors in two major developing industries in the United States from the end of World War II through 1965 is presented.