Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 1973"

TL;DR: The development and testing of a measure of technological advance using the technology of aircraft turbine engines as an example indicates that when design features are frozen in hardware, technology growth cannot take full advantage of newly developed techniques.

TL;DR: In this article, the Dialectical and Singerian Inquiry Systems are proposed as particularly appropriate for ill-structured problems, based on C, West Churchman's recent characterization of the history of Western epistemology.

TL;DR: In this paper, factor analysis techniques are applied to develop an innovation index which indicates the relative tendency of various industrial sectors to innovate, and relationships between values of the innovation index and inter-industry differences in the dynamics of the development of markets created through technological innovation are discussed.

TL;DR: A holistic experiment is an experiment on a non-separable system for the purpose of determining the properties (measures of effectiveness) of the systems components as mentioned in this paper, and it is argued that the problem of defining an adequate methodology for holistic systems constitutes an "ill-structured" problem.

TL;DR: In this article, a system for the analysis and planning of new ventures is developed which provides a structure for the application of logical, mathematical, and scientific procedures to decision problems which involve a significant portion of an organization's resources, have long term effects on a firm's future success, and are characterized by uncertainty in many of the factors important to the decision.

TL;DR: The object of this paper is to present an operational definition of “industry” for use in forecasting, R&D, or innovative contexts, and to show how predictive, rather than just analogue, statements can be made about industry and industries.

TL;DR: In this article, a methodology is developed based on cross-impact analysis and which is useful in estimating the effects of uncertainty in future sales programs and the effect of program interaction on long-range sales forecasts.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider the economic state of the industry or the state of scientific and engineering knowledge can limit inventive activity and productivity advance and take into account both institutional and economic considerations for technological forecasting related to the Service Industries.

TL;DR: There is an urgent need for on-line group modeling capabilities as the next leap forward in judgmental-research methodology, according to the Institute for the Future's authors.

TL;DR: The approach developed by the Churchman-Ackoff school of thought in systems theory and builds a network of interrelated concepts leading to a general definition of planning, to a description of its main characteristics, and to an analysis of planning theories.

TL;DR: The delphi forecasts of computer applications suggest that the computer application is forecasted to occur sooner to the extent it was judged to be technically feasible, beneficial to users or society, and not costly to develop.

TL;DR: Innovation in social affairs is a far more complex and demanding process than one might believe as mentioned in this paper and there are many excellent general reasons why an apparently rational or absolutely necessary innovation either fails to be realized or is incorporated in totally unforeseen ways, there are also important specific reasons associated with individual contexts where innovation is undertaken, that must be taken into account.

TL;DR: In this article, a perspective tree is used to interrelate sets of social, economic, political, and technological forecasts that pote threats and present opportunities for strategic consideration, and the use of objective trees in structuring program options for selected strategies.

TL;DR: In 1970, an experiment was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of using the teaching computer as a medium for involving people in community planning as discussed by the authors, and participants found the medium useful for presenting concise and relevant information.

TL;DR: Viewing forecasting in terms of three modes, as predictions deduced from tested scientific theories, as trend extrapolations, and as heuristics, it is shown that most long-term predictions are inherently contingent.

TL;DR: The various factors relating to hazard detection were determined and combined into a single parameter which describes the relation of these factors to the technology being forecasted, showing that the parameter derived adequately describes the hazard detection systems on which it was based.

TL;DR: In this article, a number of structural situations in our society which impede the effective management of the future are identified, such as the intellectual orientation of the intelligentsia, a general ignorance of both science and technology, a failure to appreciate the strengths, functioning, and relationships of our political system, a lack of awareness of the intrinsic time constants of social change; the substitution of piety for hard study; a pervasive pessimism often grounded in ignorance; a special pleading on the part of many interest groups; lack of historical perspective; a widespread aversion to social experimentation as well as a

TL;DR: An algorithm for manipulating the issues-criteria matrices found in relevance trees is developed that overcomes specific methodological shortcomings of a widely discussed tree scheme, PATTERN, as well as providing increased internal consistency in any relevance tree format.

TL;DR: In this article, the degree of development and the potential for change of the nation state were measured by a quantitative index based on the intensity of energy consumption and the product of agricultural land per capita and gross national product per capita.

TL;DR: In 1970, an initial survey was carried out on teaching futurism at the undergraduate level based on forty courses that could be located in Canada and the United States (Technological Forecasting and Social Change, December 1970). During 1971 and 1972, information was collected, primarily by a replicated questionnaire, on approximately 200 courses in North America.