Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 1975"

TL;DR: In this paper, the reliability and validity of the Delphi method are discussed and the reasons for the continued use of Delphi in spite of its shortcomings and with comments on alternative approaches.

TL;DR: In this paper, a model of process evolution is proposed as a new basis for clarifying the relationships among technological innovation and productivity improvement within an organization, and the authors explore the nature of this process evolution, the sources that stimulate this evolution, and several implications for research on technological innovation.

TL;DR: In this article, a Jungian personality theory is used to explain the psychological forces and assumptions underlying the vast majority of evaluation schemes for scientific research. But, the authors argue that most schemes are greatly restricted in their choice of an underlying psychological basis, and that science administration, evaluation, and technological forecasting all require a greater ability to appreciate, and even more important to integrate, the psychological functions described in this paper.

TL;DR: In this paper, a simulation model has been developed at IR&T which allows some important factors that affect economic and management decisions on the part of producers and intermediate users (as well as final consumers) and thereby influence the course which the substitution process is likely to take.

TL;DR: In this paper, the improvement in environmental quality is studied in terms of adoption of relatively environment-saving processes in petroleum refining industry by empirically fitting the Gompertz function or the growth rates of diffusion of the processes by the use of multiple regression equations.

TL;DR: Findings indicate that Shang is generally superior to Delphi in producing accurate numerical estimates from the judgments of a group of experts.

TL;DR: The Mandenka of West Africa see the universe as having evolved according to a principle of heterogeneity as discussed by the authors, and see the world as a process of incessant change, where individuals differ, and heterogeneity is amplified by interaction between elements.

TL;DR: It is indicated that the tremendous potential of Bayesianized Delphi in appropriate situations has remained utapped and it is essential that conventional Delphi applications, at the very least, be accompanied by a Turoff-type cross impact analysis.

TL;DR: In this article, a generalized logistic model is developed and tested as an approximation of the engineering design process, based on a predominantly forward-looking behavior of the producers, which is used in this paper.

TL;DR: Utility theory approaches, as well as Delphi and cross-impact matrices are discussed, and the results of implementing such technology with several groups is discussed.

TL;DR: In this article, a number of models and approaches are developed in attempt to anticipate the nature and direction of technological change and its impact on the firm's planning process, under what conditions might we expect firms to use one or more of these models in an organized way?

TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied the effect of tool-making on man's evolution, and they argued that growth is not exponential, but hyperbolic, and that a positive feedback exists linking technological development to population.

TL;DR: In this article, a reformulation of the technological progress function is developed by way of a solution to some of these problems and it is applied to a variety of cases, including the role of availability of knowledge and complexity in engineering design process.

TL;DR: In this article, a simple procedure is presented for adapting available mathematical models for forecasting technological substitution, taking into account the strengths and weaknesses of the available models and the environmental interactions to identify a set of feasible alternative forecasts, from which a selection is to be made by the decision-maker based on judgement.

TL;DR: A process model in which the interaction of technology and social institutions can be analyzed systematically within a single frame of reference is offered, which offers possibilities of making normative judgements of what kind of organizational linkages between technology andsocial institutions will produce relative consistency or effectiveness.

TL;DR: A new technique was developed for the purpose of analyzing past trends and projecting them into the future and it is now possible to produce alternative future histories of social trends that are simultaneously extrapolated from the past and are interacting with each other.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the growth of an indigenous scientific and technological capability through self-reliance (the Chinese model), which is a strategy that offers developing countries an alternative to dependence on technological transfer from the industrially advanced nations.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the comparative value of the Delphi Methodology and introduce a newer, more powerful methodology, called posture, for the formulation, implementation, and analysis of judgments and policies.

TL;DR: In this paper, a case history description of utilizing these concepts of philosophical inquiry in formulating the approach to a particular problem in technology assessment is provided. But this work transcends discussions of theory and philosophy.

TL;DR: The applicability of some of the techniques of technological forecasting under Indian conditions is examined in this article, where it is shown that certain parameters in India follow systematic semilogarithmic and substitution trends and these trends may be extrapolated into the future with some confidence.

TL;DR: In this article, a taxonomy is formulated to guide identification and study of the: (1) levels of socio-environmental systems; (2) specific flows between and within the relevant subsystems; and (3) the processes that operate within and between the subsystem.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that the use-fullness of futures research will be severely compromised unless all four faces of the future are fully developed and coordinated, i.e., imaging, forecasting, assessing, and planning.