Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 1976"

TL;DR: In this paper, a generalized mathematical model for forecasting technological substitution under a wide variety of circumstances is presented, and methods are also suggested for improving the reliability of the model by taking corrective measures on the available data and following a step-wise forecasting procedure.

TL;DR: The System Dynamics National Model as discussed by the authors is a computer simulation model of social and economic change in the United States, which is designed for public policy analysis and contains a deep policy structure ranging from governmental, fiscal, and monetary policy down to corporate accounting, pricing, and ordering of the factors of production.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a systematic methodology for forecasting multilevel technological substitution, and for incorporating various forms of time dependent parameters in the existing trend extrapolation models, based on the system dynamics technique and combining the exploratory and the normative approaches to technological forecasting.

TL;DR: The paper evaluates accomplishments, applications, strengths, weaknesses in the use of models, to provide practical advice for those doing, funding or utilizing technology assessments where consideration is given to the application of formal models in that process.

TL;DR: In this paper, an analysis of the factors influencing the international diffusion of new technology is presented, as a result of which a model of international diffusion process is proposed and tested statistically using diffusion data for two major innovations in the Steel Industry.

TL;DR: In this article, a model for forecasting technological substitution based on the use of the normal distribution is presented, and both mathematical and graphical techniques are used to illustrate the model, which can be used to forecast technological substitution.

TL;DR: Two specific techniques for incorporating data and perceptions about unprecedented forces and events in otherwise extrapolative procedures, trend impact analysis and probabilistic system dynamics, are described.

TL;DR: A description of a simple mathematical framework and modeling process which can be used to study a large class of socio-techno-natural systems.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe the results of the application of the SMIC 74 method to a study of the air transport development in the Paris area to 1990, which is a new cross-impact method that provides three kinds of results: (a) consistent information on the events that may occur and influence the evolution of air transport, (b) Cardinal ranking of the possible air transportation development scenarios, (c) sensitivity analysis.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify and discuss the variety of approaches we use to explain the events and acts which comprise the socio-organizational phenomena we strive to understand, and they draw attention to the almost paradoxical contrast between the future-oriented nature of what practicing managers actually do, and the past oriented nature of most of our scientific theories.

TL;DR: In this article, a new methodology for making long-range forecasts of inter-industry patterns of trade that take into account explicit technological developments is presented, where the flow of goods and services between industrial sectors and between industry and final demand is statistically quantified by means of input-output tables.

TL;DR: In this article, the Pareto distribution is proposed as a relevant asymptotic model of the process of trade-off over time, and the authors suggest that evolution of complex systems is best understood in a dimensional analytic framework.

TL;DR: It is concluded that the multitude of probability problems associated with Cross-Impact analysis are such as to preclude its use as a quantitative technique in its present form although itsUse as a vehicle for promoting discussion can still be recommended and some of the results can serve as a rough guide in forecasting.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the rationale for, and preliminary examples of, a value-oriented policy generation methodology for technology assessment, which is intended to facilitate the development of normatively based policy options for the technology under assessment.

TL;DR: The results of the study provide further support to the hypothesis that the majority of technological change occurs at the level of emperical rather than fundamental knowledge.

TL;DR: In this article, a holistic view of the concepts influencing people's lifestyles, including their social values, are presented, and the underlying needs and social values are analyzed, and alternative, less materialistic values are shown to indicate the direction of desirable value changes.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine differences in the research traditions of anthropological and sociological work on the one hand, and economic research on the other, and evaluate the usefulness of each field's paradigms in the study of industrial technological change.

TL;DR: It is shown that a dimensional analytic approach transforms the characteristics of different systems to a common domain that also makes comprehensive measurement of intertechnology change a possibility.

TL;DR: The Forrester world dynamics model has been used to investigate the impact of space colonization on the predicament of mankind in general and on the plight of the underdeveloped nations in particular as discussed by the authors.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss various alternative models of the political and social interactions among the extraterrestrial communities in order to make intelligent choices among the alternatives, and discuss how homo sapiens has developed an ability, abnormal compared to other animals, to wage wars, and how this ability must be counteracted by another ability for long-range optimization which cannot be obtained by a succession of short-range optimizations.

TL;DR: The body-mind needs a new kind of nurturing and educational process involving the potentiation of latent human capacities if it is to successfully withstand and recreate the technological process, as well as facilitate a more humane use of human beings as mentioned in this paper.

TL;DR: To enhance utilization, the imbedding of forecasting models in some use-oriented framework may be more important than the linkage between models.

TL;DR: In this article, a set of appropriate metric measures such that the distance between any two cross impact models can be determined is presented, where the distance is defined as the distance from one model to another.

TL;DR: An unambiguous indication provided by the results of this study is that short run changes in engineering design processes should be distinguished from those in the long run and transitory changes in design process from permanent changes.