Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 1978"

TL;DR: The rationale for the use of Interpretative Structural Modeling in activities such as technology assessment is developed and the basic concepts underlying the technique are explored.

TL;DR: The principle of self-organization in computer modeling is focused on, where the forecaster introduces only a small amount of statistical data and the criteria of choice or selection of the model and the computer determines the unique model of optimal complexity by sifting through a large number of models satisfying the given criteria.

TL;DR: In this paper, a global solar-energy system considered feasible for more than 10 billion people living at 5 kW per capita is presented, and the feasibility of such large-scale use of solar energy will substantially alter those aspects of the "limits to growth" discussions in which future growth strategies are constrained by available and acceptable energy alternatives.

TL;DR: In this article, the results of an experiment to determine if manipulation of statistical feedback of Delphi statements can significantly shift the responses of a fact probing and/or a value-probing Delphi were discussed.

TL;DR: In this paper, a cross-impact method is developed and adapted to the Socialist planning system, specifically economic growth in Hungary, making it possible to estimate probabilities of occurence of interrelated events, to investigate the chains of effects of such events, and to minimize inconsistencies.

TL;DR: In this paper, a heuristic alternative to traditional cross-impact analysis is proposed for cross impact situations where the object is to generate scenarios for decision-making, which is applicable to cross impact scenarios where the goal is to determine what respondents mean when they answer the conditional probability questions normally posed.

TL;DR: An additional analysis which can be performed on the output of a cross impact model, utilizing standard techniques of cluster analysis, and the clustering algorithm used and the type of output to be expected is described.

TL;DR: In this article, an attempt has been made to derive static and dynamic multiple regression equations from economic theory of consumption and production (Section II). Historical data were fitted to these theoretical constructs to test the equations in terms of econometric theory and forecast the demand according to higher order conditional interval forecasts.

TL;DR: In this article, an exploratory framework for transformational development in marginal areas of the world has been examined, using the concept of resource system, a concept which might play an important part in the application of equitable future global development efforts.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a review of the mathematical structure of some elementary penetration models, from the point of view of its fundamental implications to the models' suitability for different kinds of energy devices or techniques.

TL;DR: A cross-national understanding of technology policy decision processrs and basic premises underlying technology assessment must be established before an effective technology assessment methodology can be developed to conduct substantive technology assessments on an international scale.

TL;DR: Time, both as collective history and as subjectively experienced, seems a more fluid continuum as mentioned in this paper, where what is past, what is now present and what is to come are all complexly interrelated.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the applicability of TA's is at least as great if they are also valued and viewed as a form of art, in which logic and the formal methodologies of TA serve the same functions as canvas, paint, and brushes for the painter; or stone, chisels, and mallets for the sculptor; or musical notation, musical instruments, and performance capabilities for the composer.

TL;DR: In attempting to deal with possible laws of scientific development, a simple, partial model is formed and its use as a means to control the strategy of investments in science is illustrated.

TL;DR: This paper presents an alternative approach, decision modeling, which not only expands the area of application to multiple substitutions occuring simultaneously but can also treat cases where new substitutions have not yet begun.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss three ways of stabilizing the size of an industrial sector: direct regulation of the capacity of industrial plants, a no-nonsense appraoch, and a manipulative approach.

TL;DR: A model for forecasting production of wheat considering the effects of irrigation, fertilizer application, high yielding varieties, rainfall, labour and farm machinery is derived in this article, which is tested for Indian conditions and is found satisfactory.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored Chinese efforts to introduce a learning network in the rural sector to assist in the transformation of agricultural and industrial technology, highlighting the variety of educational networks aimed at transforming the techniques deemed essential for promoting agricultural and small-scale industry.

TL;DR: In this article, a preliminary technology assessment has been conducted of a standardized container recycling system (SCR), which consists of a limited number of glass container sizes and shapes which could be recycled without the necessity to reform the container.

TL;DR: It is said that the analysis of human needs and studies of the dynamics of their satisfaction can become the means for goal-setting and the model of needs is discussed and its usefulness for forecasting of the tasks of research and technology is shown.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a post-industrial model of corporate behavior that encourages the pursuit of social welfare rather than financial profit alone, which is based on the return on resources (ROI) model.

TL;DR: This paper deals with the process of forecasting large technical systems and one of the most important aspects is the development of criteria and their optimization.

TL;DR: It is shown how IP is vastly more complicated than previously thought and yet how these complexities may be taken advantage of positively.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a systematic model by which a series of environmental indicators can be constructed to reflect variations in the environmental quality of life among the United States medium metropolitan areas.

TL;DR: Although settlements in space appear to be in the offing, scrutiny of this idea uncovers several obstacles to their establishment as discussed by the authors, and the chances that competition with the USSR will lead to space settlements are small.