Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 1980"

TL;DR: In this paper, an attempt is made to treat invention and entrepreneurship, generally perceived as the most “free” of human activities but actually subject to iron rules, as an abstract set, whose behavior is analyzed.

TL;DR: The generality of the Weibull function is shown, which can accommodate different patterns of technological change, and a method for estimating parameters and some applications are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the model.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a theory and evidence showing how long waves can develop from overexpansion and collapse of capital-producing sectors of an economy, which may explain much of the current malaise in innovation, investment, and productivity.

TL;DR: Energy: The Next Twenty Years as discussed by the authors identifies the fundamental realities that define the energy problem, distinguishing real concerns from numerous unreal dangers intruding into current discourse, and makes specific policy recommendations including the decontrol of oil and gas prices, reform of public utility prices, retention of the nuclear option, strong support for conservation and solar energy.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the influence of personality differences on forecasting and reported the results of a new study of the relation of a reasonably comprehensive set of personality difference to political and economic forecasting and to both short- and long-term social forecasting.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors demonstrate the use of feedback estimation approaches to develop self-adaptive innovation diffusion models for forecasting technological substitution, and the limitations of the proposed procedures are discussed.

TL;DR: It is demonstrated that individual stability implies group stability but that the converse does not hold, and a χ 2 test is proposed for testing the stability of individual responses between consecutive Delphi rounds.

TL;DR: INTERAX is a method for generating alternative future scenarios which requires very few simplifying assumptions and includes a large multidisciplinary data base, which is of immediate use in a broad range of long-range strategic issues.

TL;DR: Are there any natural limits to man's time and space perspectives?

TL;DR: In this article, the impact of government regulation on the rate and direction of innovation in U.S. manufacturing and industry has been examined and evidence suggests that regulation has delayed and even prevented innovation in a number of areas.

TL;DR: The perceived usefulness of some of the common TF techniques (based on a survey) is analyzed and the results lead to the categorization of the techniques into two distinct groups.

TL;DR: Energy in America's Future as mentioned in this paper is a book that assembled facts and performed analyses required for making informed energy choices and reached broad conclusions on supply and demand prospects and on the environmental and other social aspects of policy choices.

TL;DR: In this paper, a "vintage" framework is described for studying the effects of technical change on economic development, with particular attention being given to the level of employment, and it is shown that a variety of behavioral characteristics are produced when technical change does not occur smoothly; in particular, it is suggested that variations in rates of technical changes may act as a determinant of fluctuations in other economic variables.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors report on the results of a survey undertaken to estimate the extent of use of Technological Forecasting (TF) in U.S. industry, and the characteristics of firms that find TF crucial to their business, and those who find TF unimportant.

TL;DR: In this article, the applicability of the most common solar energy market penetration models has been questioned and the assumptions underlying the foundations of rigorously developed models, or the absence of a reasonable foundation for the remaining models, restrict their applicability.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that a different productive structure, based on the satisfaction of basic human needs and with greater emphasis on collective rather than individual consumption, could reduce substantially the need for imported technology and lead to an increased demand for local scientific and technological activities.

TL;DR: In this paper, a technology transfer model has been presented, in relatively simple mathematical form, which incorporates both the dynamic and the spatial aspects of the innovation diffusion process, and has been applied to evaluate the international transfer potentials of the "computerization" technology.

TL;DR: For example, the authors argues that the irrational threat that a planned sustainable society poses for most of Western humanity lies in the implication that the time has come for us to take full responsibility for our future, that we can no longer remain the children of a cosmic process or the secure beneficiaries of economic or social laws.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a general theory of technological development, which is applied to a variety of cases of innovation in the locomotive, tank ship, and aircraft technology over the course of time.

TL;DR: In this paper, the implications of a simple, yet robust model of innovation diffusion for developing insight into the problem of controlling the rate of new product diffusion are explored, and some basic, theoretical results are developed using a simple model.

TL;DR: For the time period 1974-1977, there has not existed a list of new and future arbitration issues, ranked or otherwise as mentioned in this paper, and this research was conducted to contribute to an update of the literature on the major New and future issues in grievance arbitration.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe several types of managed evaluation processes to predict evaluations unlikely to provide useful results, and sketch essential dialogues between evaluators and sponsors to improve the prospects of success for evaluation projects.

TL;DR: Scenarios of Japanese society in 2000 are obtained by applying an extended correlational cross impact analysis and a procedure is developed to generate the scenarios that consists of a preprocessing of the events of interest and a step-by-step application of a cross impact method.

TL;DR: The role of basic and improvement innovation in the cyclical development of economic efficiency can be described by a periodic function over time and also as a simple optimization model for investment policy.

TL;DR: A recent study of political, economic, social, and both short-term and long-term forecasting as mentioned in this paper indicates considerable predictive powers for modern forecasting approaches based on the measurement of ideological variables in surveys and the use of a matrix format for the analysis of social change and the projection of future.

TL;DR: This paper present a summary interpretation of a wide body of social research data showing the attitudes, beliefs, and values Americans currently hold on the subject of economic growth, its prospect and consequences.

TL;DR: In this article, a case study of substitution in the beverage can market is analyzed and three differing conclusions are supported depending on the interpretation given to the data, highlighting the importance of data interpretation to this criticism.