Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 1982"

TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented some polynomial innovation diffusion models that are less restrictive compared with the binomial models, and they also showed the link between the Polynomial diffusion process and the multilevel technological substitution process.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors applied spectral analysis to long-time series of industrial production, energy consumption, inventions, innovations, and patents in order to reveal quantitative regularities in their behavior and or in their interdependence.

TL;DR: A classification of government policy tools to stimulate industrial innovation can be found in this article, with a focus on three main categories: patent, technical education, and infrastructurally based pure and applied research.

TL;DR: The authors argued that unreliability cannot be eliminated from these analyses by increasing their sophistication, since many of the problems involved in forecasting inhere in the techniques themselves or in the institutional context within which they are used.

TL;DR: In this paper, two indicators of the output of technological innovation have been developed for the case of agricultural tractors, and these indicators can be applied only to multicharacteristic products with easily quantifiable characteristics.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the methods and rationale for government support of two elements in industrial technology: generic technology, from which specific products and processes (i.e., innovations) are derived, and infratechnologies, which are necessary for the evolution of the generic technology and its applications.

TL;DR: In this paper, the characteristics of the initial wave of homeowners who installed solar energy systems is presented and then used to anticipate future solar market penetration patterns, revealing high education and income levels; professional and executive occupations; economic, energy saving, and environmental concern as the principal purchase motivations; and high satisfaction levels.

TL;DR: A decision-modeling approach to estimate the upper limit of the market share that a technology can capture is offered, which requires the prospective adopter's value judgments about various decision factors that affect the technology.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a means for corporate officers to take the general good into account before making important corporate decisions by making "social impact statements" analogous to but broader than the familiar environmental impact statements.

TL;DR: In this paper, a system dynamics model that incorporates the income distribution processes of a typical developing country agrarian economy consisting of a capitalist and a self-employed sector is presented to explain why public policies that were expected to alleviate rural poverty in Pakistan have not worked.

TL;DR: In this article, the meaning of a sustainable society is discussed to provide a framework for considering the role of the private sector, and the significance of private sector as a model for institutional flexibility in sustainable society.

TL;DR: In this article, a generalized least square (GLS) estimator and a maximum likelihood estimator were proposed to estimate technological diffusion functions in a simple stochastic model of technology adoption.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors suggest that the most effective method requires involvement of the private sector, specifically the participation of small landholders, working 1-5 acres, grouped around a corporate core.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the steps through which most Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) assessments proceed, and provide an overview of several independent research papers on TA methodology and practice in the United States and in other countries.

TL;DR: A review of TA activities and institutions in Canada, Europe, and Japan, and some developing nations can be found in this article, where the Berger Commission study of the McKenzie Valley pipeline is singled out as an outstanding example.

TL;DR: A technology assessment in the private sector has been a growing phenomenon as mentioned in this paper, where corporations, through their planning mechanisms, are learning to ask and answer the tough social, political, and economic implications questions related to their technological development.

TL;DR: The transition to a sustainable society will entail major shifts in many of the attitudes, values, and basic assumptions that have driven industrial growth as discussed by the authors, and there is growing evidence that these shifts are already occurring and that private enterprise may become a primary locus for translating new values into operational principles.

TL;DR: In this paper, the meaning of corporate self-reliance is examined: business enterprises assuming responsibility for the consequences of their operation in the social as well as the physical environment by forming partnerships with local communities and families.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that the term "technology assessment" should be reserved to describe a form of policy analysis designed to assist public sector decision making and resource allocation, and that using the term to describe corporate decision-oriented planning studies is misleading and casts into negative perspective some useful and progressive developments in corporate planning.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe research that shows that indicators of technological change (patents, papers, R&D expenditures) can provide from one to three years advanced warning of a market shift.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a method, called SIAM, for assessing the social soundness of projects, programs, and policies, based on work by R.O. Mason, I.I. Mitroff, and J.R. Emshoff.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present solar-enhanced energy scenarios for the future together with the policy considerations they imply, and the work reported here builds on an earlier model developed by Sasser.

TL;DR: The results suggest a consistent pattern of location across breeds and over time, which points to some of the problems from estimating the process of diffusion when the process is incomplete.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that traditional assumptions behind business policy and management are being replaced with new concepts, especially in business/government relations, management/labor relations, industry/ecosystem relations, and relations between business firms.

TL;DR: By combining methods of technology assessment with principles of decision analysis, one can obtain a decision-focused technology assessment process that produces a quantitative decision model and encourages a systematic, rigorous study of key issues.

TL;DR: In this paper, the effects of three kinds of technological changes on employment are considered: (1) basic and major improvement innovations, (2) medium improvement and incremental innovations, and (3) small incremental and pseudoinnovations.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a model of an ideal congressional assessment in the form of a checklist for a complete OTA report, based on a theory of the logical relation between congressional technology assessment and congressional decision making.

TL;DR: Recent development in the logic of argumentation and symbolic logic show how the model structure of each inquiry system can itself be modeled in terms of the first-order predicate calculus, creating a “model of models.”

TL;DR: Two caveats are identified regarding the calculation of autocorrelations when the approximate expression found in most forecasting software packages is employed and a superior approximation is noted and discussed, although it is argued that the exact formula should be used.