Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 1984"

TL;DR: Home office workers can be classified into distinct groups: self-disciplined full-time clerical women seeking income at reduced personal expense; and male managers or professionals who value the part-time integration of work and family life more than they do competition for further advancement in their organizations.

TL;DR: The authors examined aspects of two of these processes: the basis for changing opinions, and the factors related to continued participation in subsequent Delphi rounds, concluding that elements of cognitive dissonance apparently lead certain panelists to abandon the Delphi process.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on two aspects of the work-at-home arrangement, social interaction at work and the need to separate home and work roles are important elements for the individual worker.

TL;DR: In an attempt to forecast the shape of economics in the year 2001, a Delphi study was undertaken, involving over 200 professional economists from 18 different countries, and the end result was a list of 28 breakthroughs thought likely to occur in the next 20 years.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors used a planning cell model to incorporate participation into the process of policy formulation and evaluation and to gain information about intuitive preferences concerning the four basic energy scenarios constructed by the Enquete Commission of the German Federal Parliament.

TL;DR: A study of 25 major corporations assesses the state-of-the-art in strategic planning, and explores future prospects for developing a more powerful form of strategic management to cope with the transition to a new economic era as mentioned in this paper.

TL;DR: Information cuts both ways and herein lie the dilemmas or paradoxes arising from ever more information created, processed, and disseminated by proliferating information technologies as discussed by the authors, which can result in more control but it also creates circumstances that reduce or defy control.

TL;DR: In this article, a causal model of behavior change is presented based on Fishbein's theory of reasoned action for home energy conservation measures, which is tested using panel data on 225 homeowners from Decatur, Illinois and two conservation practices.

TL;DR: This paper argued that the appropriate criteria for evaluating large-scale long-range societal (or "world" models differ significantly from the criteria that are appropriate for short-range econometric models or for small "toy" models.

TL;DR: By combining four interactive planning methods, it was possible to develop a methodology for the design and implementation of futures-oriented citizen workshops that is capable of explicating the discrepancy between a probable future for a region of a state and a desirable future as conceived by 23 area citizens.

TL;DR: In this paper, additional energetic criteria, such as energy concentration (or quality) and energy accessibility, are proposed to reinforce the linkage between innovation waves and primary energy substitution patterns, though they modify the interpretation placed on this connection.

TL;DR: It is proposed that Delphi and system dynamics studies should complement each other in arriving at viable policy decisions.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a detailed catalogue of model features, relevant for an adequate characterization of system dynamics and econometrics, and stress the importance to notice the interconnections that exist between different features.

TL;DR: In this paper, the feasibility and potential merits of integrating qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches to produce a useful range, rather than to improve the accuracy, of long-range forecasting is examined.

TL;DR: In this paper, four aspects of an applied technology assessment of western energy development are examined: the social and political context, the analytical approach, organization and management, and participation and utilization strategies.

TL;DR: The MISS-E computer program is a method for the modeling of continuous dynamic systems with special attention given to the inclusion of events into the model.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors make remarks with regard to the behavior of leaders whose self-image is threatened by a variety of conditions comprising the world problematique and suggest that those associated with violence and warfare are the most threatening.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe the mechanics of the science and technology planning process in the Chinese system and draw conclusions on a variety of pertinent issues, such as: whether or not planning is actually conducted at a macro-level; what are the useful sources of information for scientific and technical decision-making within the system; how do the motivations for doing research in China's planned economy and how do they affect the research that is done.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors presented an analysis for the adoption of hybrid corn and found that the adoption parameter of the log logistic is best explained by economic variables among which the total area of corn in the state, which stands for both the importance in the economy and economies of scale of extension services, is outstanding.

TL;DR: In this paper, the shape of the clusters of innovation or inventions are different and sharper than those of economic depression or economic recovery, and the importance of discoveries and limited discoveries to the process of invention and innovation is discussed.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented two case studies for the selection of appropriate technologies for rural development in Indonesia, one dealing with the problem of identifying a set of suitable technologies to be promoted for accelerated rural development and the other dealing with selecting the most appropriate one among available technologies of one kind.

TL;DR: As Japan has moved abreast of the United States in the export capability of high-technology products, the competition between the two countries has intensified not only in private sector R&D but also in terms of increased governmental assistance and protectionist measures.

TL;DR: In this paper, a multidisciplinary team of biologists, economists, engineers, planners, and sociologists were assembled to do an ex-post facto analysis of a flood control reservoir ten years after initial operations.

TL;DR: In this article, a new methodology for political risk analysis was developed and applied to Canada and Mexico and the ideas of an interdisciplinary team of corporate and country experts were obtained in mid-1982 via a two-round Delphi inquiry on socioeconomic change and a survey on business contingencies.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed U.S. industrial data on innovation-related variables and defined an innovation index, which was strongly correlated with a parameter which measures the propensity of an industrial sector toward adoption of new technology within the classic Mansfield market substitution model.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine those macro models intended for operational policy purposes and how they are used for economic projection in developing countries, and they examine how to use these models to influence policy.