Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 1988"

TL;DR: In this article, an analysis of a nationwide questionnaire sent to public affairs officers of the Fortune 1,000 corporations reveals that the crises their organizations experienced in the last three years and the preventative actions they are undertaking to blunt potential crises cluster together in a relatively small number of distinct factors or families.

TL;DR: This paper argued that the search for the most likely future is not only misguided (since we are usually wrong) but actually counterproductive, and that what are needed are backcasting techniques that reveal the possibility, and test the feasibility and impacts, of alternative futures.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors make a distinction between the objects and the subjects of technological change, and on this basis they make a comparison between the two approaches, which emphasize alternatively "evolutionary" or "revolutionary" characteristics of technologies.

TL;DR: It is shown that the Hubbert method is quite accurate, with a tendency to underestimate the ultimate recoverable resource somewhat, while the simulated geologic analogy estimates overshoot the resource base quite dramatically.

TL;DR: In this paper, a detailed discussion examines the implications and the limits of Delphi and Delphi-like approaches and identifies more Delphilike approaches, starting with this example, which may be well known by its protagonists.

TL;DR: A detailed industry-by-industry assessment of services sector spending on information technology can be found in this article, where the authors show that massive investments in information technology have failed to boost national productivity growth in the present decade.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the ways in which technologies applied in services activities are changing the structure of domestic and global competition in both goods and services industries and suggest that services and manufacturing activities are inextricably interdependent and that many of the emerging strategic opportunities and threats in world trade and particularly in global manufacturing operations arise from the services technologies created for the communication, transportation, distribution, and financial management (services) industries.

TL;DR: In this article, a simple, one-dimensional, nonlinear equation is used to demonstrate that very small changes in initial conditions can cause large and unpredictable changes in output, and that temporarily stable operation can be experienced in the unstable regime.

TL;DR: Remarkably invariant over the 26 years considered, and through the complete range of computer sizes, remains the fact that for every five new computer models appearing on the market, there is one new computer company emerging also.

TL;DR: This article argued that most wealth in existence today originates in technological innovation and pointed out that the U.S. became rich by being good at technological innovation, but other countries that were once good innovators have slipped and our own technological lead is slipping.

TL;DR: Through the use of a Delphi panel of professionals, researchers, and informed generalists, impulses are gathered for the scenarios on how information technology, communication means, and control systems can reshape future road traffic.

TL;DR: The Korean experience in rapid technology development is examined in this paper, where three main issues are discussed: institutional frameworks, legal systems, and manpower development, and long-term goals and strategies for the next 15 years are summarized.

TL;DR: A theoretical framework has been proposed which takes into account the effect of time lag between the knowledge of an innovation and its actual adoption, and it is found that time lag can induce damped oscillations under certain conditions.

TL;DR: A mathematical model relating to the technology transfer problem, which is based on the assumption that the technological development of a firm or a country follows a logistic growth curve when related to a specific technology.

TL;DR: The potential capabilities of artificial-intelligence-based educational devices are briefly described, and a technical forecast of an advanced instructional work station's attributes is presented.

TL;DR: In this paper, the role of government and industry in creating a favorable environment for science and technology in developing countries is discussed, and an adequate infrastructure must be established to support this task.

TL;DR: In this paper, the emergence of the cellular telephone industry in the United States and illustrates the long time horizons and huge investments necessary for innovation in large services business are discussed. And the authors revel in the way in which regulation, necessary for orderly allocation of the frequency spectrum, can add another layer of complexity and decision making to innovative processes slowing and fundamentally changing technological introductions.

TL;DR: In order to minimize the vulnerability of society, the importance of a “precomputer manual” and user training is emphasized, as are measures that common carriers can take for reducing the possibility of “system down”.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors outline the four stages of the approach in a conceptual framework entitled the "Chronospace" and illustrate its applicability by referring to some of Gamma's projects in the last 12 years.

TL;DR: Based on BLS data and a new analytical tool, this paper showed an 80-year linear trend in the evolution of the total workforce, and established characteristic ages for 20 manufacturing sectors, including 1910 for autors and 2015 for computer equipment.

TL;DR: The evolution of the Nobel prize awards is studied in this paper, where a simple logistic function describes the data well and accounts for the competition, be it between individuals or between nations.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify and discuss policy issues brought forward by rapid employment and output growth in services industries, problems of measuring and interpreting services productivity growth, and changing patterns of international trade in services trade.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors suggest that the professional intelligence community has evolved to support threat-based strategic contingency planning in the modern military sector, particularly those grouped under the general heading of Indicator/Warning-Alert (IWA) operations.

TL;DR: The authors examines environmental prospects for the twenty-first century, and then suggests some appropriate long-term management strategies and research priorities, which are adaptive, interdisciplinary, and cross-sectoral.

TL;DR: The authors argued that moralistic and/or political arguments are the primary cause of the current perception of the crisis situation and that it is unlikely that current economic theory can be adjusted to provide useful results by incorporating these political and moralistic issues as added variables, because the proper inclusion of such issues would challenge the basic axioms on which the edifice of modern-day economics is built.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors address the central policy initiatives needed to support the effective use of technology in services industries, focusing on macroeconomic and tax policies; policies for investment (public, private, or mixed investment) in services infrastructures; changes in the form of economic regulation; human resource development policies; and recognition of the interdependence of services and manufacturing in trade negotiations.

TL;DR: The Korean path to industrialization may provide valuable lessons for other developing countries as mentioned in this paper, and some lead sectors have been pursued with a bold mix of technologies and entrepreneurship. But the challenge of the information age must be confronted.