Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 1994"

TL;DR: This article put together a list of the basic instincts that drive and contain travelers' behavior, showing how they mesh with technological progress and economic constraints, and found that personal travel appears to be much more under the control of basic instincts than of economic drives.

TL;DR: The Bi-logistic model is presented for the analysis of systems that experience two phases of logistic growth, either overlapping or sequentially, and is shown to be superior to the simple logistic model for representing many growth processes.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compare preunification and postunification diffusion rates in the European Community and show that no apparent change will be observed in the diffusion of new ideas, technologies, and products in the unified European Community.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors employ the techniques of chance-constrained data envelopment analysis to conduct a comparison of the productive efficiency of a set of West European market economies and East European planned economies and find the market economies to have been much more efficient in their allocation of resources.

TL;DR: This paper traces the various perspectives that have, over time, shaped the various definitions of technology and points out that the “polytrophic” components of technology definition can be used to obtain fresh insights into technological sophistication, technology content of production activities, technology transfer, and technology capability development.

TL;DR: In this paper, a simple method is proposed to select between two often applied trend curves; the Gompertz and the logistic curve, based on one auxilliary regression.

TL;DR: In the State of California Telecommuting Pilot Project as discussed by the authors, demographic characteristics, travel behavior, office activities, and attitudes of telecommuters and control group members were collected as part of the telecommuting pilot project.

TL;DR: In this paper, look-up tables and graphs are provided for determining the uncertainties during logistic fits, on the three parameters M, α and t o describing an S-curve of the form: S(t)= M 1 + e −α(t−t 0 ) The uncertainties and associated confidence levels are given as a function of the uncertainty on the data points and the length of the historical period.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reviewed existing research studies and frameworks in order to delineate such risks and then analyzed seven major technology-based projects in terms of risks undergone and differing levels of success.

TL;DR: The authors examines the influence of culture on the adoption of technological innovations within a society and examines differences in innovative adoption behavior between the United States and Japan as a direct result of their different cultural attributes.

TL;DR: In this article, the S-shaped pattern of a logistic function is analyzed in terms of several constituent logistic functions, which sheds light on two familiar phenomena: the undulatory evolution of growth, which gives rise to an alternation between high-and low-growth periods, and the increasingly noticeable shrinking life cycle of products.

TL;DR: In this paper, a simple framework for integrating business and technology strategies, particularly in the context of developing countries, is described, where possible strategic mixes are identified by considering four commonly practiced business strategies, namely: price, value, niche and image leadership; and four evolving technology strategies.

TL;DR: A model of performance evaluation of Research and Development organizations employs a macro index of Key Output Indicators (KOI) as a figure of merit, which employs the focus on users and impactees and the composite aspect of the overall index.

TL;DR: In this paper, a deeper examination of the causes of industrial catastrophes is provided, showing that the preconditions for these accidents, and the escalation of accident effects, are caused by human and organizational contradictions in the context in which the technology is located.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine internal and external interorganizational relationships and their impact on the probability of organizational adoption of new technologies and propose a new conceptual framework that links internal and externally interorganization relationships among various industrial groups to the adoption-diffusion process.

TL;DR: This article constructs a simple social model that can exhibit chaos under some conditions, and asks what can be done by a manager to reach hypothetical goals despite the fact that the system he or she is trying to control is in chaos.

TL;DR: In this article, the central theses of William Strauss and Neil Howe's book Generations are reviewed and data they present on national leadership shares of successive cohort generations are analyzed, and their generational cycles are shown to repeat with Kuznets cycle/Kondratiev wave rhythmicity, and generational shifts to coincide with long-wave crises.

TL;DR: In this paper, a model of firm behavior that incorporates both risk preferences and inefficiency into input and output decisions of the firm is developed to analyze the separate effects of technical efficiency and risk attitudes on the adoption of new technologies.

TL;DR: In this paper, a contingency-based policy making schema is proposed to define, and solve heuristically, various forms of conflict usually involving all three spheres of government (federal, state, and local).

TL;DR: The relationship between facility size and permanence and flexibility has received too little recognition in practice and too little attention in research as discussed by the authors, which can lead to excessively large and permanent facilities.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the need to take stock of the current global perspective for developing economies, what problems and issues will have to be dealt with, and what bottlenecks will need to be removed, and the vital dimensions of the required technological change management system for practitioners and policymakers in these countries.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore planning theory, the process of technological innovation, and the relevance of future studies to these issues, and identify four levels of technology innovation planning: national, sectoral, enterprise, and operations.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the quantitative and qualitative practice of federal research impact evaluation, and describe three cases: research selection, where the work has not yet been performed; research review, where work and results are ongoing; and ex-post research assessment, where research has been completed and results can be tracked.

TL;DR: In this paper, the formulation of the science and technology (S&T) policy undertaken by the Korean government for the national R&D program was reviewed, and the HAN project was launched after systematic foresight activities were carried out, setting the long-term national goals and priorities, and selecting key technologies to be developed for the next decade.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss how the use of data communication networks contributed to improved productivity and competitive advantages in the case of the French commercial banks and suggest that a competitive advantage can only be achieved during periods when there is uncertainty concerning technology and when organizational innovation is being introduced.

TL;DR: The subordination of technology to finalities outside it must be built into technology assessments as mentioned in this paper, in which three rationalities vie for supremacy in decisional arenas: technical, political, and ethical. Interaction among the three should be circular, not vertical.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the results of an empirical study of the long-term impact of industrial robots on employment in Germany, based on an improved version of the Leontief-Duchin-Szyld dynamic input-output model.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a present value index (PVI) model to compare the effects of radical innovation and incremental improvement in petroleum refining processes and found that incremental improvements generated higher returns than from its initial innovations.

TL;DR: The most important recent experience with successful technological innovation has taken place in Asia, whereas the most rapid conceptual advances appear to be occurring in Europe and the U.S. as mentioned in this paper.