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Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 1996"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A survey of the literature on the methodology and applications of Delphi over a period of two decades (1975-1994) is presented in this article. But the focus of this survey was on the use of Delphic forecasting techniques in qualitative forecasting.

523 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on the importance of inter-industry sources in contributing to lock-in and the possibilities of escape from it, including crisis in existing technology, regulation, technological breakthroughs, changes in taste, emergence of niche markets, and new scientific results.

346 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, an extension of the Bass diffusion model is proposed to capture the substitution pattern for each successive generation of a durable technological innovation, and the diffusion pattern of the base technology.

289 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that to realize large technological system transitions, society needs to develop a new model of innovation, combining some features of the much criticized linear model with features from the systemic innovation model.

258 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify managerial variables that are critical to the success of defense projects and identify the team members' professional qualifications and sense of responsibility for project success and the stability of key personnel.

98 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The logistic model is revived, which was tested and found wanting in early-20th-century studies of aggregate human populations, and applied instead to life expectancy and fertility, the key factors totaling population.

86 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed the long-term decarbonization of the global energy system, i.e., the decrease of the carbon emissions per unit of primary energy.

78 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a brief history of the debate on the interactions between technology and the environment is given, and a short overview of each article of this special issue is then presented three cross-cutting "metathemes" emerge from the articles.

72 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors demonstrate that large decreases in energy requirements per unit economic output were achieved throughout the world and that carbon emissions have also decreased per unit energy, showing that carbon dioxide emissions represent one of the largest single mass flows associated with human activities.

51 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors review two models of technical change, i.e., induced innovation and path-dependent models, and argue that the two models are complementary rather than alternative explanations of the forces that influence the direction of technological change.

48 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors observed the complete development of 11 new technology adoption processes in the same number of small and medium-sized manufacturing firms with between 50 and 249 employees and found that in 10 out of the 11 cases observed, the manager behaved as an entrepreneur in the technology adoption process.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present some of the major results obtained during the third phase of a continuing research effort to develop and implement national indicators of competitiveness in high-technology industries.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the macrocosm of innovation and the screening process while presenting two propositions that suggest how to enhance an invention's progression through the innovation funnel, namely, the size and nature of the individual firm, the attitudes of the management of the firm, and the establishment of standards for the widespread diffusion of the innovation.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors report a study on Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond conducted jointly by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the World Energy Council (WEC), where three cases of economic and energy developments were developed that sprawl into six scenarios of energy supply alternatives extending until the end of the 21st century.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored the theoretical and empirical implications of using varying data frequencies when estimating diffusion models using both nonlinear least squares (NLLS) and ordinary least square (OLS).

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the productivity of R&D expenditures on an international and multi-industry basis was investigated using 1992 data reported by Business Week on 117 companies in the United States, Europe, and Japan.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is concluded that marketers have not been looking in the right places to find chaos (or at least traditional market research reports do not lend themselves to an effective search for chaos), and that brand managers behave in a way that minimizes chances of observing chaos.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that the basic discounting methodology is fundamentally flawed and can lead to significantly inferior social choices, i.e., choices that would be rejected by virtually any rational actor to whom the choice was fairly presented.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider the systemic nature of technological change in the energy sector, i.e., beyond the introduction and diffusion of individual technologies, and propose a public technology policy oriented toward sustainable energy development.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article addresses several issues raised by a very particular pattern of knowledge generation, called “discovery in the context of application,” the case of a hypersonic aircraft research program, which illustrates that the organizational design of such programs is a very complex matter.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine how RD has a curvilinear effect on innovative performance, whereas involvement in collaborative R&D has an exponential effect on the performance of innovative performance.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In the United States, as in most industrialized countries, bulk materials consumption no longer runs in tanden with economic activity, confounding predictions of dire shortage and reducing the projected income of countries that rely on mineral exports.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An evolutionary model of diffusion processes based on biological analogy, together with the method of its parameters’ identification using real data on technologies development and the applications of that model to describe the real diffusion processes are presented.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors proposed that factors such as the experience of a crisis, new members on the top management team, regulation, expectations of the industry association, and the potential threat of media scrutiny motivate organizations to make changes in their crisis preparation practices and move toward greater preparedness.

Journal ArticleDOI
Harvey Brooks1
TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of attention management is described as a major challenge in the transition to environmentally sustainable development paths, and the design principle that attention is scarce is very different from a principle of "more information is better" when discussing problems of sustainability in technological development.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the potential benefits of the European-level TA infrastructure both for the Community's own R&D and for national TA activities, particularly in the light of the current debate on social shaping of technology and constructive TA.