Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 1998"

TL;DR: The five phases of a scenario project are explained and it is shown how scenario management is used to develop corporate or business strategies, such as mission statements or core competencies.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a method that overcomes a number of problems associated with new product diffusion models noted in the marketing literature, and illustrate the methodology in the context of better understanding global variances in new product adoption.

TL;DR: This article aims to classify the approaches and methods of TA into a common framework to increase the coherence of the field of TA, and to make it more transparent to nonpractitioners such as scientists and engineers, government employees, and members of civil movements.

TL;DR: In this article, a prospective analysis of the future development of a biofuel program in the European Union and the hypothetical role of developing countries as suppliers in this new market is presented.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide fresh empirical evidence on the relevance and nature of innovation activities in the service sector, which can be summarized as follows: Technological innovation is quite a diffused phenomenon in market services: more than one third of surveyed firms have introduced technological innovations during the period 1993-95.

TL;DR: In this paper, an analysis was made of the financial profitability/loss of technology transfer programs in U.S. universities, hospitals, and research centers for 1995, and it was shown that approximately half of the programs in these institutions appeared to operate at a profit, albeit some had profits of several million dollars.

TL;DR: In this paper, three growth models are presented in which can be used to estimate the parameters of a short product life cycle with the use of information on total life cycle sales and peak sales timing to obtain initial monthly forecast.

TL;DR: In this article, the preference to telecommute from home and from a center was investigated, using attitudinal factor scores, as well as travel and sociodemographic variables.

TL;DR: The interaction between universities and industry in areas concerned with science and technology is part of the broader national infrastructure involving other higher education institutions, public and private research organizations, and companies that are engaged in the generation, transfer and use of knowledge, information, and technology.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors summarized and discussed major findings of the Korean Delphi and provided a comparison of the Delphi results among Korea, Japan, and Germany, with some topics in common in the areas of information, electronics, and communications technology.

TL;DR: The George Washington University forecast of emerging technologies is presented, using environmental scanning and trend analysis to identify emerging technologies (ETs) and a Delphi-type survey to estimate the year each advance will occur, its associated probability, the potential size of its market, and the nation that will lead each ET.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss public policies that can promote, and those that can hinder, a positive and cumulative role of universities in the knowledge-based economies, and present an analysis in terms of the impact that public policy and especially public funding may have in fostering or hindering the positive contribution of universities for economic prosperity.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe the background of current research in the area of science and technology policy, summarize the contributions to this special issue, and issue calls for new policy research.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors deal with the environmental effects of the production and consumption of plastics and discuss the possible form of a sustainable plastics industry, and examine the political debates and conflicts of interest that are involved.

TL;DR: The author considers the possible coupling of the annual energy use per capita and the population growth rate for each region, and the consequences of such a connection if the world's population is to stabilize.

TL;DR: The technological infrastructure of convergence to an information highway is analyzed, tracing the origins of the concept, the false starts, the growth and origins ofThe Internet and World Wide Web, convergence as a substitution process, and the learning curves of the technologies involved.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the extent to which ownership of mobile communications is related to demographic variables and/or functionality needs and found that the key determinants of mobile communication ownership were household income, race/ethnic background, need to be in touch, and social/work mobility.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a project of the Center of Technology Assessment in Baden-Wurttemberg with the title "Qualitative growth as Prerequisite for sustainable development in BADEN-WURTTemberg" aiming to develop a concept of sustainable development on a regional scale by developing general guidelines and conversion strategies for the various players involved.

TL;DR: In this article, a method is proposed to identify the knowledge and skills an SME requires to exploit its market opportunities, which are essential for a company in its attempt to maintain or improve its competitiveness.

TL;DR: Energy and electricity demand forecasts for Britain made in the late 1970s by a research team from the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), under the leadership of Gerald Leach, are assessed with the benefit of hindsight as mentioned in this paper.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a direct measure of technological progress that can be quantified with reasonable confidence on the basis of historical data, namely the efficiency with which resources (mainly energy sources) are converted into final services.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a conceptual framework for the development of R&D-integrated technology assessment practices called Integrated Technology Assessment (ITA), which aims to increase the cost-efficiency of research and increase the social responsiblity of scientists.

TL;DR: A review of the literature on business reengineering (BR), analyzes critical success factors (CSFs) for BR, develops a BR-CSFs model, empirically tests the model on Korean firms, and investigates the impact of BR on corporate performance in Korea.

TL;DR: In this paper, the Utterback-Abernathy innovation model is used to assess the evolution of the emerging technology; it is found that the technology is still in the fluid phase and that a dominant design has not yet emerged.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors highlight how technological innovation in the personal computer industry is modifying both market structure and relationships between manufacturers and customers, and propose a model based on the technical approach to measure technological change.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a primer and workbook for the introduction of new technologies into developing countries, with the purpose of promoting a more general, future-oriented awareness of the potential consequences of such technologies.

TL;DR: The Zero Emissions Research Initiative (ZERI) as mentioned in this paper has succeeded in identifying clusters of technologies which respond to specific needs such as the provision of water and food, the administration of health care, construction of housing, and the creation of jobs.

TL;DR: In this article, the Bimodal System Model was developed for their modeling, which is based on the combined action of two forces: the evolutive intrinsic dynamics and the decisionistic formation.