Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 2001"

TL;DR: In this paper, a taxonomy of services based on their technological linkages with manufacturing and other service sectors is presented, and the effect of recent technological changes on the transformations in business organisation, industry structure, internationalization and the role of transnational corporations in these technology-intensive service sectors are explored.

TL;DR: Technological forecasting is now poised to respond to the emerging needs of private and public sector organizations in the highly competitive global environment as mentioned in this paper, and new tools are anticipated, borrowing variously from fields such as political science, computer science, scientometrics, innovation management, and complexity science.

TL;DR: In this article, the potential for energy leapfrogging by examining three technological approaches targeted at rural households in East Africa: conventional grid expansion, renewable energy technologies supplying electricity, and improved cookstove.

TL;DR: In this article, a hybrid method that combines the GM(1,1) grey forecasting model and the ratio-to-moving-average deseasonalization method to forecast time series with seasonality characteristics was proposed.

TL;DR: This review paper summarizes the theory and background development of DT, past published and unpublished literature study results; the present application activities; potential expansion to new DT applications; and application of DT to technology forecasting is addressed.

TL;DR: It is claimed that the effective causality of long-term macroeconomic rhythms, most commonly referred to as long waves or Kondratieff waves, is founded in the authors' biological realm and speculated that the triggering mechanism may result from the cohesion loss of a given technoeconomic system in consequence of reaching a threshold value of informational entropy production.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that externalities promoting the adoption of new technology are stronger at the regional level and depend positively on the proximity of early users, and verify the importance of geography and inter-firm networking in the process of knowledge transfer and diffusion.

TL;DR: The results of the technological innovation section of the PAEP survey as mentioned in this paper showed that the rate of innovation output in Sao Paulo revealed a considerably extensive adoption of technologically new or improved products and/or processes in the period 1994/1996.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors report the empirical findings of a survey conducted among firms in Brussels, the Belgian and EU capital and identify the drivers and constraints relevant to the implementation of teleworking in the Brussels business environment.

TL;DR: The authors discussed the insights from both the neo-classical and the evolutionary perspectives on economic growth and technological change, and argued that in evolutionary models technological and behavioral diversity, uncertainty, path dependency, and irreversibility are elaborated in a more sophisticated and explicit way than in the traditional Solow-Swan model.

TL;DR: It is shown that due to extreme volatility of discovery probabilities concentrated in a short time span, there is a high probability that at least one other competitor will discover the same need before, or concurrently with, its discovery by the firm in question, if traditional exploration is applied.

TL;DR: In this article, a commentary on the Devezas-corredine paper raises three questions: how do we think and how we need to think about K-waves, what causes k-waves in the Devesas-Corredine model and in what sense do social and biological factors add to a better understanding of large-scale structural changes in the world economy.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a new framework to analyze the decision of the automakers of whether to develop a new component in-house or to subcontract it to a supplier by combining recent theoretical results related to the ownership structure of the firm with the notion of modular design.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors observe a "real world picture" of how European biotechnology firms manage their inventions and how they make use of patent protection, and compare the behavior and requirements of the biotechnology industry with the existing legal framework in Europe, to determine industrial needs, and to identify insufficiencies in the institutional settings.

TL;DR: It turned out that differences in personal attitudes towards megatrends do not influence the estimation of developments in science and technology, however, differences exist in specific topics and the distribution of the five experts types among the respondents differs significantly in the 12 fields.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the role played by a particular type of entrepreneurs in the process of biotechnology firm creation in Portugal, finding that highly qualified young people were especially effective in achieving a match between scientific and technological knowledge and market needs by capitalizing on their technological competencies and "relational assets".

TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe three subsets of crises: technological disasters, crises of decline, and developmental crises, and provide a rationale as to how competing attributes co-exist.

TL;DR: Two fundamental drivers that influence societal acceptance of biotechnology are described and suggest four discrete alternative scenarios for the future ofBiotechnology.

TL;DR: The authors analyzes recent data on the "globalization" of industrial R&D, emphasizing that the patterns of international research investments differ significantly among industries, and seem to differ among different activities within the innovation process, including the creation of new technologies, the development of these inventions into commercially attractive products, and the production and marketing of these new products.

TL;DR: The use of the Delphi method in this study is substantiated by its psychological, financial, and (in the case of the pharmaceutical field) relevant advantages as discussed by the authors, which is essential in order to capture and cope with the unseen and new side effects that the emergence of the "informational paradigm" within the field of drugs will undoubtedly bring about.

TL;DR: The Third International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI) as mentioned in this paper was held in Austin, TX, in August of 1999, under the broad designation of "creating value for the 21st century in the globalized learning economy, which challenges are facing education and research to enhance and nurture innovation and better contribute to help developing and exploiting engineering, science, and technology".

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the nature of the search process firms go through in identifying partners for technological cooperation, and, in particular, the extent to which systematic information collection on potential partners is likely to enhance the choice of satisfactory partners.

TL;DR: In this paper, the role of incentives, infrastructure, and institutions in late-industrializing countries is explored, and the authors argue that all three dimensions are critical to understand differences in technological development and industrial trajectories across countries, because they shape government policies and firm strategies in terms of exports, subcontracting, and technology acquisition, among others.

TL;DR: In this article, a discussion is presented on the key issues in the transfer of environmental technologies to China and more broadly South East (SE) Asia and identifies constraints to this technology transfer, and in particular, the mechanisms involved including research and technology development and the major role of the private sector.

TL;DR: This research collected strategic IS/IT plan documents in Norway and based on content analysis of the documents, descriptions of responsibility for implementation were found in 50% of the plans.

TL;DR: In this paper, modern digital spectral analysis confirms that very noisy inflation and economic growth series share ∼9 and ∼18-year business and building cycle signals, but that inflation alone displays the additional ∼28 and ∼56-year rhythms of the long wave.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored the link from firm size and market concentration to patenting and R&D in a sample of manufacturing firms in Denmark and found that in a simple model setting, both firms' market and size induce increased patenting activity as well as increased research effort in manufacturing.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assessed the potential adoption of expert systems in relation to two techniques that had been widely adopted in the past, Box-Jenkins and scenarios, and found that the expected probabilities of adoption for expert systems were slightly higher than for the two other techniques.

TL;DR: In this paper, a case study explores the evolution of Vitro's technological effort as a response to the export orientation of the Mexican economy, and a comparison is made between the main technologies embodied in the processes of glass manufacturing, before and after the liberalization of the markets.