Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 2003"

TL;DR: This paper describes developments in environmental scanning, models, scenarios, Delphi, extrapolation, probabilistic forecasts, technology measurement and some chaos-like behavior in technological data.

TL;DR: In this article, the precision of the Grey forecasting model applied to samples based on demand and sales in the global integrated circuit (IC) industry is examined, and the main objective is to explore which forecast model is most appropriate for the IC industry by comparing the empirical results from the Grey model, time series and exponential smoothing.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored the impact of different forms of the globalisation of technology on developing countries through travelling, media, scientific and technical workshops, Internet and many other communication channels.

TL;DR: In this paper, a short history of the Delphi method is given, and different types of Delphi methods are described, and the validity and reliability of the method are discussed.

TL;DR: In this article, a two-round disaggregative Delphi was conducted, the panelists being representatives of interest groups in the traffic sector, the first round data were collected by a fairly open questionnaire and the second round data by a relatively structured interview.

TL;DR: The results show that the Grey forecasting model is a viable means of accurately forecasting the value of industrial output and offers a valuable reference for government in drafting relevant policies for the opto-electronics industry and for firms in drawing uprelevant policies for their products.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors integrated the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies, and applied it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processing technologies 15-20 years hence.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the future governance of innovation policies in Europe and propose three scenarios stretching from (1) the idea of an increasingly centralised and dominating European innovation policy arena to (2) the opposite, i.e., a progressive decentralisation and open competition between partly strengthened, partly weakened national or regional innovation systems and finally, the vision of a centrally "mediated" mixture of competition and cooperation between diverse regional innovation cultures and a related governance structure.

TL;DR: The paper describes some of the newly discovered trends, and their incorporation into a design method that allows individuals and businesses to first establish the relative maturity of their current systems, and then, more importantly, to identify areas where ‘evolutionary potential’ exists.

TL;DR: In this article, a structural equation model (SEM) is used to forecast the technology commercialization success index (TCSI) in relation to technology developer, technology receiver, technology transfer center, and environmental factors.

TL;DR: In this paper, the dynamics of the Lotka-Volterra competition (LVC) were analyzed for the special case of a dominant competitor at equilibrium being replaced after the introduction of a small population of an invading competitor with a competitive advantage.

TL;DR: In this article, the dynamic relationship between the Korean Stock Exchange (KSE) and Korean Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (KOSDAQ), two competing markets at the Korean stock market, in the viewpoint of technological forecasting of competition is analyzed.

TL;DR: A framework for the evaluation of scenario planning and other strategic decision making methods or techniques is provided and it is demonstrated that there are many ways in which scenario planning could be useful other than those that have appeared in previous discussions.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyse the evolution undergone by studies on the topic of technological innovation (TI) process carried out by different disciplines from the point of view of the objectives they pursue and the suppositions on which they are based.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors demonstrate that world system evolution, viewed as a cascade of multilevel, nested, and self-similar, Darwinian-like processes ranging in size from one to over 250 generations, exhibits power law behavior, which is also known as self-organized criticality.

TL;DR: In this article, a collection of recent energy scenarios from a policy and planning perspective is reviewed and compared quantitatively with respect to US energy consumption, energy efficiency, and carbon content of the fuel mix in 2020.

TL;DR: In this article, the characteristics of venture business and entrepreneurs in Korea were explored to identify technology transfer activities, analyze the differences between technology transfer in linear and nonlinear venture businesses, and guide more effective venture business policy and strategy.

TL;DR: Based on the complaint analysis of TFC that revealed inaccuracy as the most serious obstacle to its acceptance, this paper especially analyses the meaning of accuracy and the suitability of technology foresight to cognitive structures in users' decisions is discussed.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated whether carefully designed policies may initiate a process of large-scale diffusion of grid-connected PV, even without the deployment of external subsidies, and showed that the diffusion process could be accelerated through the implementation of carbon-tax policies that support initial penetration.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors studied the major changes in the knowledge environment of the pharmaceutical industry, with a particular emphasis on the period since the emergence of biotechnology, and discussed the related changes in learning strategies of established pharmaceutical firms.

TL;DR: The present research seeks to validate a process that creates factors (clusters) based on term usage in technical papers by creating standard factor groupings that optimize the composite term sets and facilitate comparisons of the R&D emphasis areas over time.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that innovation should be understood as a broad social and economic activity: it should transcend any specific technology, even if revolutionary, and should be tied to attitudes and behaviors oriented towards the exploitation of change by adding value.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed and tested a new model for multiple-unit adoptions of durable goods based on the diffusion modeling tradition and applied the model to both color television and automobiles.

TL;DR: In this paper, a range of analysis techniques are discussed and simultaneously applied to a specific technological development, which is the offering of 2.5/3G wireless data services, which are currently of great significance in the communications industry.

TL;DR: In this article, a probit model is estimated with different explanatory variables based on a sample of innovative German service companies, based on general hypotheses concerning the role of quality standards, produced elucidating results.

TL;DR: In this paper, a multigeneration technology diffusion model can be applied for more accurate cost to benefit analysis for information technology, and Monte Carlo simulation is performed to find influential factors on the CBA of a cybernetic building system (CBS).

TL;DR: An agent model that simulates the spread of an infection in a population and the sensitivity of factors such as virility of the infectious agent, the “reach” of the vector and the density of the population in which the epidemic takes place is presented.

TL;DR: In this paper, a taxonomy of the future technologies is proposed to provide a better understanding of industrial dynamics and to forecast the development of knowledge and technological change in some well-known trajectories.

TL;DR: What cyberterrorism means, the forms it may take and how it may occur, and safeguards that should be considered in preparation for cyber warfare are examined.