Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 2006"

TL;DR: The Delphi method is a popular technique for forecasting and an aid in decision-making based on the opinions of experts, which has been in existence for over half a century.

TL;DR: The forecasts for three emerging technology areas are presented by integrating the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis into well-known technology forecasting tools such as scenario planning, growth curves and analogies.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a new approach to performing a Delphi study that does not involve the use of sequential "rounds" and as a result, greatly improves the efficiency of the process and shortens the time to perform such studies.

TL;DR: In this paper, short term forecasting was applied to 20 emerging technologies under the “Machine and Materials” category based on the Vision 2023 foresight study previously conducted for Turkey.

TL;DR: It is explained that CIB scenarios correspond to the solutions of slowly time-varying pair-force systems, which is particularly well suited for the analytical integration of calculable system parts.

TL;DR: In this paper, a grey model known as GM(1, 1) has been employed successfully in the estimation of vehicle fatality risk, and its application to the UK and US data sets yields exact predictions that are of high repeatability with characteristics depicting high reliability and efficiency.

TL;DR: In this paper, the linkages among CO2 emissions, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and energy consumption are studied simultaneously using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for the time period considered for the study is 1980-2001.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors used a duration analysis technique to investigate the significance of time-dependent economic and environmental variables, along with cross-sectional variables such as technology-specific perceptions, on the adoption of soil-conserving cropping practices by grain growers in southern Australia over the period 1983-2003.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors address the question of what constitutes an appropriate evaluation strategy for national foresight activities in different situations and explore a variety of rationales for foresight, ranging from a desire to set priorities through to participation-oriented goals and building new networks around common visions and strategies.

TL;DR: In this paper, a new form of technology assessment is proposed that will evaluate the suitability of new technologies for ethical problems in the context of the development of new technology. But it often takes many years to fully integrate them in society.

TL;DR: The empirical results reported in this study indicate that the functional category approach offers a more stable and reliable methodology for assessing longer time technological progress trends.

TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors explored the relationship between technology transfer activities and innovation performance with special reference to Chinese industrial firms, and revealed that the innovation activities in Chinese manufacturing firms could not be boosted substantially merely through the acquisition of key equipment and apparatus from abroad.

TL;DR: The proposed approaches are more objective and reasonable to improve the persuasiveness in determining the universe of discourse, length of intervals and membership functions of fuzzy time series.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors associate the components of the intellectual capital, namely, human capital, structural capital and relational capital, with the value/performance of ITRI and find intellectual capital highly relevant to the value creation process and warrant strategic accumulation for R&D organizations.

TL;DR: The notion of citation-based patent stock (CPS) and valuation-based patented stock (VPS) is proposed in this paper and the calculation method is described in detail.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a technical-cost model of end-of-life vehicle (ELV) processing operators to interpret the changing economics of auto recycling activities under the new EU Directive on ELV.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors applied Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a multiple inputs-multiple outputs evaluation method, to analyze the comparative performances of the six high-tech industries currently developed at Taiwan's Hsinchu Science Park.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the effects of social capital, entrepreneurs' capabilities and entrepreneurial strategies on the performance of technology-based new ventures, using concepts derived from the entrepreneurship and strategy management literatures.

TL;DR: Though further data are needed to induce good generalization performance, resulting product classification systems are considered to be a viable approach to support specialized learning surrogate LCA models for different classes of products.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a methodological framework to address two limitations of the basic Bass diffusion model: it does not reflect competition among products nor does it forecast demand for products that do not exist in the marketplace.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a new perspective of constructive technology assessment based on a discussion of contiguous research on the social implications and control of technology, reflexivity and reflection in the 'risk society' (Beck), and on public understanding and participation in science and technology.

TL;DR: The Center for Management and Strategic Studies (CGEE) has as its main activity the conduct of foresight studies in support of the decision-making process related to the establishment of ST&I policies and activities in Brazil.

TL;DR: A detailed comparison of the practical application of two well-known forecasting methods to the same area, future European transport systems, using the same expert knowledge base is reported on.

TL;DR: In this paper, a sustainable automobile transport scenario based on the SRES B2 scenario is presented, with key demographic and economic drivers updated to incorporate developments between 1990 and 2000, and revisions to population projections.

TL;DR: TFDEA was found to better predict the first-flight dates than the multiple-regression forecast, indicating that TFDEA may be a powerful new technique for predicting complex technological trends and time to market for new products.

TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors used an input-output model to assess how social and economic changes will affect energy requirements and energy intensity for China's rapidly developing society, which showed that technological advancement has the strongest impact on energy intensity.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors defined change-of-dominance time (CD-Time) as the number of years it takes main market adopters to outnumber early adopters and empirically investigated this timing issue on a comprehensive data set of new product sales in the consumer electronics industry.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined innovation activities such as patenting, licensing, and incubated startups in the context of Taiwanese higher education institutions (HEIs) and analyzed the strategic aspects influencing these academic innovations including (1) intellectual property managerial capabilities, (2) the strength of external industrial partnerships, (3) the university entrepreneurial orientation, and (4) government research policy.

TL;DR: The Millennium Project conducted a two-round Delphi to identify and rate important forms of nanotechnology-related environmental pollution and health hazards that could result from any military activities and to suggest military research that might reduce these problems as discussed by the authors.