Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 2007"

TL;DR: It is described that the emergence of a new innovation system and changes in existing innovation systems co-evolve with the process of technological change, and a method for systematically mapping those processes taking place in innovation systems and resulting in technological change is proposed.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios that form the analytical backbone for other contributions to this Special Issue, and analyze the feasibility, costs and uncertainties of meeting a range of different climate stabilization targets in accordance with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

TL;DR: In this article, the potential changes in global and regional agricultural water demand for irrigation were investigated within a new socio-economic scenario, A2r, developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) with and without climate change, under and without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions.

TL;DR: In this article, the implications for agriculture of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions were investigated within the new A2 emission scenario, recently developed at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis with revised population and gross domestic product projections.

TL;DR: It is argued that OSNs can be regarded as a tool to enhance creativity through the unprecedented modalities of communication and interaction they offer and proposed as an expert tool to detect emerging changes in social behaviour.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors distinguish five levels of interconnectedness scenarios may display across scales: (a) equivalent, (b) consistent, (c) coherent, (d) comparable, and (e) complementary.

TL;DR: In this paper, a framework to guide policy and implementation of ICTs in Indian agriculture is proposed, where agricultural development is visualized from two perspectives, a rural incomes and livelihoods perspective at the farm level, and a sustainability perspective at regional level.

TL;DR: The case study of the Stimulus Cluster Scheme shows that the norms, values, and customs of these networks facilitate collaboration for mutual benefit as discussed by the authors, which helps explain how and why networks of innovating companies are successful.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors report a spatially explicit scenario interpretation for population and economic activity (GDP) for the time period 1990 to 2100 based on three scenarios (A2, B1, and B2) from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) at the highest degree of spatial detail, the scenario indicators are calculated at a 05 by 05 degree resolution.

TL;DR: The breakthrough of rock ‘n’ roll was part of broader transformations in the American music industry, involving changes in music instruments, music recording technology, audiences, radio programming and music styles, which will be analysed as sociotechnical transition using the multi-level perspective.

TL;DR: In this article, text mining was used to extract technical intelligence from the open source global nanotechnology and nanoscience research literature (SCI/SSCI databases) to identify potential nanotechnology applications, potential health impacts and applications.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors use the spatially explicit Dynamic Integrated Model of Forestry and Alternative Land Use (DIMA) to quantify the economic potential of global forests and determine whether carbon sequestration policies could present a significant contribution to the global portfolio of climate change mitigation options.

TL;DR: Patent analysis in CIA is employed to examine impacts between technologies based on multiple patent classifications to help practitioners to forecast future trends and to develop better R&D strategies.

TL;DR: In this paper, a collaborative foresight method called RPM Screening is proposed for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas, based on complementary evolutionary perspectives.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors draw on the resource-based view of the firm and contribute to our understanding of how the development of internal resources and capabilities in SMEs can provide sources of competitive advantages in the international arena and improve their business performance.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide policy makers and strategists with observations that might limit actions such as those that led to the "over-hype" of nanotechnology and to the fear (or discounting) of societal risks.

TL;DR: This paper focuses on the integration of Christensen's theory of disruption and system analysis with the scenario methodology to develop a framework that provides an understanding of the underlying systemic conditions that create disruption and/or discontinuity.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the empirical evidence underpinning the new technological paradigm which rewards cooperation in the innovation of complex technologies and found no evidence that cooperation enhances either the globalization of innovation or its speed.

TL;DR: For the last 22 years I have been fitting logistic S-curves to data points of historical time series at an average rate of about 2-3 per day as mentioned in this paper.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the relationship between entrepreneurship, as measured by the variation in business ownership rates, and unemployment in Portugal in the period from 1972 to 2002, and concluded that Portugal has been a relative outlier in regard to the effects of entrepreneurship on unemployment when compared with the OECD average.

TL;DR: A new dynamic analysis model which combines the first-order one-variable grey differential equation model (abbreviated as GM(1,1) model) from grey system theory and Markov chain model from stochastic process theory is proposed.

TL;DR: The Bayesian grey model was the most accurate one among these models and can obviously conquer the difficulties with a small sample set and ambiguity of available information.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed aggregate car ownership and bus fleet models in order to forecast and compare fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions from passenger cars and buses in Greece, a country fairly representative of lower-income Mediterranean and Eastern European countries and data were collected for the period 1970 to 2002.

TL;DR: In this paper, the positions of national nanotechnology development efforts based on analyses of patenting from 1994 to 2005 are compared. And the authors classify the R&D activities by using a 3-stage, life cycle, value chain of nano-raw materials, nano-intermediates, and nano-products.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors review the effects of the current war on terrorism in terms of its impact on the economy, the allocation of resources to R&D, and the trajectory of future research.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose an integration of theoretical frameworks on the diffusion of innovations with data on stakeholders' opinions, to develop estimates of FCVs' market-share evolution.

TL;DR: It is concluded that if forecasters are to deal scientifically with the now-established management notion of “tipping points,” a 3-parameter model is needed and four minor but annoying paradoxes in the growth curve literature are resolved.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used the assumption that the diffusion of mobile technology, as measured by the number of active mobile accounts, follows the well known S-curve of natural growth in competition systems.

TL;DR: In this article, a cross-case analysis of four potentially disruptive technologies or technical operating models: Bluetooth, WLAN, Grid computing and Mobile Peer-to-peer paradigm is presented.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined joint effects of economic and strategic or technological interventions using a Generalized Bass Model (GBM), taking into account three different hierarchical levels: natural diffusion, long memory interventions and stochastic components.