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Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 2010"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Based on the technology-organization-environment (TOE) framework of Tornatzky and Fleischer as mentioned in this paper, nine variables (relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, top management support, firm size, technology competence, information intensity, competitive pressure, and trading partner pressure) are proposed to help predict RFID adoption.

688 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: How scenario discovery appears to address several outstanding challenges faced when applying traditional scenario approaches in contentious public debates is described, and how this approach has already proved successful in several high impact policy studies is demonstrated.

437 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed sustainability transitions in the electricity system, using recent theories on socio-technical pathways, and suggested three possible transition pathways and indicated the implications for (grid) infrastructures, which are characterized by a further hybridization of the infrastructure; in the reconfiguration pathway, internationalisation and scale increase in renewable generation lead to the emergence of a supergrid.

374 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a quantitative decision- analytic approach for supporting decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty is presented, using simulation models to assess the performance of agency plans over thousands of plausible futures, use statistical "scenario discovery" algorithms to concisely summarize those futures where the plans fail to perform adequately, and use these resulting scenarios to help decisionmakers understand the vulnerabilities of their plans and assess the options for ameliorating these vulnerabilities.

348 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An uncertainty-robust adaptation strategy: strengthening the resilience of the impacted system is studied, operationalised for the city of Rotterdam, using literature study, interviews, and a workshop.

332 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a co-evolutionary, multi-level perspective is adopted to analyze the dynamics of the relationship between car manufacturers and consumers and developments that put pressure on this relationship.

239 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors remind us that applications of strategic foresight tools are contingent and modular and that the future still has to be built and that futurists produced too many scenarios and not enough projects.

223 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of knowledge management tools (KMTs) on the performances of business units involved in inter-firm collaborative innovation projects is analyzed. But, only new product performance acts as an indirect conduit linking KMT use and financial performances.

221 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a comprehensive review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies and find a widespread trend towards declining prices and costs at an average learning rate of 18 ± 9%.

194 citations



Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that all the extant forecasting methods — including the use of expert judgment, statistical forecasting, Delphi and prediction markets — contain fundamental weaknesses and that the only remedies are to provide protection for the organization against the occurrence of negatively-valenced events and to provide conditions to challenge one's own thinking to improve anticipation.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed an analytical framework for studying learning processes in the context of efforts to bring about system innovation by building new networks of actors who are willing to work on a change towards sustainable development.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe and explain the emergence of electric engines in the automobile market after 1990 and explicate the role of techno-economic mechanisms alongside social and regulatory mechanisms (including the social meaning of an engine).

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a case study on the origins and early evolution of technology foresight illustrates the essential importance of terminology in differentiating key concepts in social sciences, particularly in the case of policy research.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article describes organizational ambidexterity and situate it in the general strategy literature and highlights the use of scenario planning as a potential tool for developing this organizational “skill”.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The use of the term "technology foresight" has long been used to describe readiness to deal with long-term issues (especially on the part of governments) in science, technology and innovation as discussed by the authors.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper investigates the interplay between changes in infrastructural systems (or infrasystems) and societal context and presents a typology for identifying different types of infrASYstems (infrasystem architectures), what underlies infrassystem complexity (inFrasystem interplays), and how infrisystems might respond to change in the form of alternative pathways.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the effect and response uncertainty of emerging drivers of change in the context of strategic foresight is investigated. But the authors focus on the state uncertainty about the likely path of evolution and the response uncertainty about how to take advantage of these drivers.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed the relationship between democratization and technological innovation and found that "democracy richness" generates a higher rate of technological innovation with fruitful effects for the wellbeing and wealth of nations.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An overview of the application of technology roadmapping in renewable energy sector has been provided in this article, where the authors tried to group the roadmaps related to the renewable energy technologies into national, industry/sector and organizational level roadmaps.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed 7455 scientific and patent references in respect to first indicators for signs of industry convergence and discussed a multiple indicator concept for monitoring convergence in an R&D-intensive field on the basis of publicly available data.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the relationship between corporate market value and four patent quality indicators (RPP, revealed technology advantage (RTA), Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of patents (HHI of patents), and patent citations) in the US pharmaceutical industry.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: There are seven tools policymakers should follow to create adaptive policies based on over a dozen case studies on public policies relating to agriculture and water resources management in Canada and India, which are elaborates on as a pragmatic guide for policymakers who find themselves working in highly complex, dynamic, and uncertain settings.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The results of this study should provide a base for firms in evaluating the purchase of new equipment and a reference for equipment suppliers to strengthen their technology transfer process to their buyers.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed an innovation diffusion framework based on well-known Bass models to analyze and forecast national adoption patterns of photovoltaic installed capacity, which allows for interesting comparisons among several countries and in many cases highlights the positive effect of incentive policies in stimulating the diffusion of such a technology.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper compared structures of the citation network of scientific publications with those of patents, and discussed the differences between them, and a case study was performed in a solar cell to develop a method of detecting gaps between science and technology.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Analysis demonstrates that each fusion pattern has evolved in such a way that technologies focus more on their niche technologies, and that those technologies which cannot incorporate the technology fusion have been eliminated during the development process.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: These techniques are combined in a Foresight exercise assessing development of clean production in metal manufacturing, drawing on the European CLEANPROD project, to develop a set of roadmaps for metal processing R&D to achieve breakthrough sustainability.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This study proposes a technology selection process integrating fuzzy Delphi method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and patent co-citation approach (PCA) for technology selection.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied the problem of technological innovation risk-based decision-making from an entrepreneurial team point of view, where decisions are mainly affected by the decision-maker's risk and value perceptions, and risk preferences.