Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 2013"

TL;DR: In this article, the adoption and diffusion of sustainable agricultural practices (SAPs), as a way to tackle this challenge, has become an important issue in the development policy agenda in the region.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the different types of instruments of innovation policy, examine how governments and public agencies in different countries and different times have used these instruments differently, explore the political nature of instrument choice and design, and elaborate a set of criteria for the selection and design of the instruments in relation to the formulation of the innovation policy.

TL;DR: The aim of this paper is to introduce an integrated roadmapping process for services, devices and technologies capable of implementing a smart city development R&D project in Korea using a QFD (Quality Function Deployment) method.

TL;DR: In this article, a systematic review of the literature relating to technology roadmapping that was published between 1997 and 2011 is presented, and a hybrid methodological approach that combines bibliometrics, content analysis and semantic analysis is applied.

TL;DR: A modified task-technology fit approach is proposed that is used to investigate how the IoT technology can be incorporated into the three rhythms and enhance emergency response operations, and the findings from the research support the two hypotheses.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyze the internal complexity that characterises technological innovation in firms and propose a moderating role of innovation culture on these relationships, and reveal the existence of the moderated role of the innovation culture in a knowledge-based product innovation model.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compare the drivers of innovation investment before, during and following on from the 2008 financial crisis, applying the Schumpeterian hypotheses of creative destruction and technological accumulation, finding that incumbent enterprises are more likely to expand their innovation investment, while after the crisis a few, small enterprises and new entrants are ready to "swim against the stream" by expanding their innovative related expenditures.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors study and compare the results of case studies on three hypes in three different empirical domains: voice over internet protocol (VoIP), gene therapy and high-temperature superconductivity.

TL;DR: It is concluded that EMA is useful for generating foresights and studying systemic and structural transformations despite the presence of a plethora of uncertainties, and for designing robust policies and plans, which are key activities of FTA.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the relationships between demographic and motivation variables with m-commerce usage activities and found that age and educational level have significant relationships with mcommerce usage activity, however, these relationships vary between content delivery, transactions, location-based services, and entertainment activities.

TL;DR: A model to calculate the TLC for an object technology based on multiple patent-related indicators, which can be used in management practice to enable technology observers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology of interest and make their R&D strategy accordingly.

TL;DR: A framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways and a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses ("FTA") experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses is devised.

TL;DR: In this article, a detailed econometric analysis of historical energy efficiency rebound magnitudes in the US economy by sector and in aggregate is presented, which strongly suggests that energy consumption forecasts that ignore rebound effects will systematically and significantly understate energy consumption.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyze the investment decisions of a large sample of investors, with the objective to identify the main determinants of their choices, and have important implications for both investors and policy makers.

TL;DR: The ubiquitous term “scenario planning” is a misnomer and it is proposed that other ”scenario” terminologies might usefully be adopted that more precisely indicate the process and objectives of scenario interventions.

TL;DR: In this paper, the effects of multiplicative interaction between clustering and reach on members' knowledge creation and patent value based on complex network analysis in nanobiopharmaceuticals field were investigated.

TL;DR: Results from the study are that the citation analysis method shed light of the future technology competitive arena and further research is needed to understand more deeply the relations and interaction between different stages in the convergence or fusion process.

TL;DR: In this paper, the use of the Conjoint Community Resilience Assessment Measurement (CCRAM) for estimating the ability of a community to be resilient in the face of disaster is presented.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the potential and empirically observable value creation of strategic foresight activities in firms, and show that it is possible to capture value through an enhanced capacity to perceive change, an enhanced ability to interpret and respond to change, influencing other actors, and through enhanced capacity for organizational learning.

TL;DR: In this paper, the role of different types of proximity on the technological activity of a region within the context of a knowledge production function is investigated, where R&D expenditure and human capital are the main internal inputs, thus assessing to what extent the creation of new ideas in a certain region is enhanced by knowledge flows coming from proximate regions.

TL;DR: A systematic review of papers pertaining to the application of knowledge-driven systems in support of emergency management that have been published in the last two decades concludes that only limited work has been done in three EMIS-knowledge management system (KMS) subdomains.

TL;DR: In this article, a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model is used to assess consumer heterogeneity for early and mass market adopters of full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to quantify the conditions that might trigger wide spread adoption of alternative fuel vehicles to support energy policy.

TL;DR: This paper proposes an iterative computational model-based approach to support adaptive decision-making under deep uncertainty and combines an adaptive policy-making framework with a computational approach to generate and explore thousands of plausible scenarios using simulation models, data mining techniques, and robust optimization.

TL;DR: This work discusses how strategic radars can be used to integrate outside networks, weak signals, sense making, strategic dialog and scenario planning, and how a strategic radar system was actually developed and deployed by a large government agency in order to enhance its adaptive capability for coping with increasing external change.

TL;DR: In this paper, the Delphi expert survey technique has proven to be a valuable instrument for long-term decision making support as well as foresight, and has a potential value for risk assessment.

TL;DR: The authors analyzed the effect of scenario planning on the widely discussed framing bias in decision making as well as on decision quality, and found that scenario planning reduces the framing bias and has a more positive effect than tools traditionally used in strategic planning.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a methodology for analyzing and modeling the ecosystems and illustrate its application via a field study conducted in Telecom Italia Future Centre, and in particular the Digital Imaging Ecosystem.

TL;DR: In this paper, a comparative study of two transfer offices located in France and in the UK is presented, which underlines the office's relative positioning within their institutional environment and identifies the relative priority given to their use of the channels of transfer.

TL;DR: A time series clustering approach is applied to the ensemble of model runs in order to identify different types of dynamics in an ensemble that encompasses the various uncertainties perceived by the actors involved in particular decision making situations.

TL;DR: A dissent-based scenario development process is presented, which uses the Delphi technique for data generation and identifies different clusters of experts through latent class analysis and seven partially conflicting multi-stakeholder scenarios for the future of EDVs in 2030 are developed.