Showing papers in "The American Economic Review in 2002"

Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects

Abstract: A menu of paired lottery choices is structured so that the crossover point to the high-risk lottery can be used to infer the degree of risk aversion. With “normal” laboratory payoffs of several dollars, most subjects are risk averse and few are risk loving. Scaling up all payoffs by factors of twenty, fifty, and ninety makes little difference when the high payoffs are hypothetical. In contrast, subjects become sharply more risk averse when the high payoffs are actually paid in cash. A hybrid “power/expo” utility function with increasing relative and decreasing absolute risk aversion nicely replicates the data patterns over this range of payoffs from several dollars to several hundred dollars. Although risk aversion is a fundamental element in standard theories of lottery choice, asset valuation, contracts, and insurance (e.g. Daniel Bernoulli, 1738; John Pratt, 1964; Kenneth Arrow, 1965), experimental research has provided little guidance as to how risk aversion should be modeled. To date, there have been several approaches used to assess the importance and nature of risk aversion. Using lottery choice data from a field experiment, Hans Binswanger (1980) concluded that most farmers exhibit a significant amount of risk aversion that tends to increase as payoffs are increased. Alternatively, risk aversion can be inferred from bidding and pricing tasks. In auctions, overbidding relative to Nash predictions has been attributed to risk aversion by some and to noisy decision-making by others, since the payoff consequences of such overbidding tend to be small (Glenn Harrison, 1989). Vernon Smith and James Walker (1993) assess the effects of noise and decision cost by dramatically scaling up auction payoffs. They find little support for the noise hypothesis, reporting that there is an insignificant increase in overbidding in private value auctions as payoffs are scaled up by factors of 5, 10, and 20. Another way to infer risk aversion is to elicit buying and/or selling prices for simple lotteries. Steven Kachelmeier and Mohamed Shehata (1992) report a significant increase in risk aversion (or, more precisely, a decrease in risk seeking behavior) as the prize value is increased. However, they also obtain dramatically different results depending on whether the choice task involves buying or selling, since subjects tend to put a high selling price on something they “own” and a lower buying price on something they do not, which implies This is analogous to the well-known “willingness to pay/willingness to accept bias.” Asking for a high selling price 1 implies a preference for the risk inherent in the lottery, and offering a low purchase price implies an aversion to the risk in the lottery. Thus the way that the pricing task is framed can alter the implied risk attitudes in a dramatic manner. The issue is whether seemingly inconsistent estimates are due to a problem with the way risk aversion is conceptualized, or to a behavioral bias that is activated by the experimental design. We chose to avoid this possible complication by framing the decisions in terms of choices, not purchases and sales. 3 risk seeking behavior in one case and risk aversion in the other. Independent of the method used to elicit 1 a measure of risk aversion, there is widespread belief (with some theoretical support discussed below) that the degree of risk aversion needed to explain behavior in low-payoff settings would imply absurd levels of risk aversion in high-payoff settings. The upshot of this is that risk aversion effects are controversial and often ignored in the analysis of laboratory data. This general approach has not caused much concern because most theorists are used to bypassing risk aversion issues by assuming that the payoffs for a game are already measured as utilities. The nature of risk aversion (to what extent it exists, and how it depends on the size of the stake) is ultimately an empirical issue, and additional laboratory experiments can produce useful evidence that complements field observations by providing careful controls of probabilities and payoffs. However, even many of those economists who admit that risk aversion may be important have asserted that decision makers should be approximately risk neutral for the low-payoff decisions (involving several dollars) that are typically encountered in the laboratory. The implication, that low laboratory incentives may be somewhat unrealistic and therefore not useful in measuring attitudes toward “real-world” risks, is echoed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (1979), who suggest an alternative: Experimental studies typically involve contrived gambles for small stakes, and a large number of repetitions of very similar problems. These features of laboratory gambling complicate the interpretation of the results and restrict their generality. By default, the method of hypothetical choices emerges as the simplest procedure by which a large number of theoretical questions can be investigated. The use of the method relies of the assumption that people often know how they would behave in actual situations of choice, and on the further assumption that the subjects have no special reason to disguise their true preferences. (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979, p. 265) In this paper, we directly address these issues by presenting subjects with simple choice tasks that

Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers Through Backward Linkages

Abstract: Many countries compete against one another in attracting foreign investors by offering ever more generous incentive packages and justifying their actions with the productivity gains that are expected to accrue to domestic producers from knowledge externalities generated by foreign affiliates. Despite this being hugely important to public policy choices, there is little conclusive evidence indicating that domestic firms benefit from foreign presence in their sector. It is possible, though, that researchers have been looking for foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers in the wrong place. Multinationals have an incentive to prevent information leakage that would enhance the performance of their local competitors in the same industry but at the same time may want to transfer knowledge to their local suppliers in other sectors. Spillovers from FDI may be, therefore, more likely to take place through backward linkages-that is, contacts between domestic suppliers of intermediate inputs and their multinational clients-and thus would not have been captured by the earlier literature. This paper focuses on the understudied issue of FDI spillovers through backward linkages and goes beyond existing studies by shedding some light on factors driving this phenomenon. It also improves over existing literature by addressing several econometric problems that may have biased the results of earlier research. Based on a firm-level panel data set from Lithuania, the estimation results are consistent with the existence of productivity spillovers. They suggest that a 10 percent increase in the foreign presence in downstream sectors is associated with 0.38 percent rise in output of each domestic firm in the supplying industry. The data indicate that these spillovers are not restricted geographically, since local firms seem to benefit from the operation of downstream foreign affiliates on their own, as well as in other regions. The results further show that greater productivity benefits are associated with domestic-market, rather than export-oriented, foreign affiliates. But no difference is detected between the effects of fully-owned foreign firms and those with joint domestic and foreign ownership. The findings of a positive correlation between productivity growth of domestic firms and the increase in multinational presence in downstream sectors should not, however, be interpreted as a call for subsidizing FDI. These results are consistent with the existence of knowledge spillovers from foreign affiliates to their local suppliers, but they may also be a result of increased competition in upstream sectors. While the former case would call for offering FDI incentive packages, it would not be the optimal policy in the latter. Certainly more research is needed to disentangle these two effects.

Social Value of Public Information

Abstract: What are the welfare effects of enhanced dissemination of public information through the media and disclosures by market participants with high public visibility? For instance, is it always desirable to have frequent and timely publications of economic statistics by government agencies and the central bank? We examine the impact of public information in a setting where agents take actions appropriate to the underlying fundamentals, but they also have a coordination motive arising from a strategic complementarity in their actions. When the agents have no private information, greater provision of public information always increases welfare. However, when agents also have access to independent sources of information, the welfare effect of increased public disclosures is ambiguous.

R&D cooperation and spillovers: Some empirical evidence from Belgium

Abstract: Successful innovation depends on the development and integration of new knowledge in the innovation process. Part of this knowledge will reach the firm from external sources. Several authors have documented the existence of these external information flows and have commented on their importance for decisions at the firm level (Adam B. Jaffe, 1986; Jeffrey I. Bernstein and M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1988) and ultimately for economic growth (Paul M. Romer, 1990; Gene M. Grossman and Elhanan Helpman, 1991; Zvi Griliches, 1992). One challenge facing this literature has been the measurement of these information flows or “spillovers” between firms and gauging their effect on different innovation management decisions by the firm. While assessing spillovers, it is important to distinguish between incoming spillovers, which affect the rate of innovation of the firm, and appropriability, which affects the ability of the firm to appropriate the returns from innovation. The information sources for incoming spillovers are usually situated in the public domain, and their usefulness to the firm depend on the firm’s ability to create information flows from this public pool of knowledge. But firms also attempt to appropriate the benefits of their innovations by controlling the information flows out of the company into the pool of publicly available information. The relevance of distinguishing between incoming spillovers and appropriability is revealed when we use these measures to analyze their impact on the decision of firms to engage in cooperative RD Morton I. Kamien et al., 1992; Raymond De Bondt, 1997). On the other hand, imperfect appropriability increases the incentive of firms to free ride on each other’s RD Katrien Kesteloot and Veugelers, 1995) and encourages free-riding on the RD Veugelers: Katholieke Universiteit Leuven and CEPR, Naamsestraat 69, 3000 Leuven, Belgium (e-mail: Reinhilde.Veugelers@econ.kuleuven.ac.be). The authors would especially like to thank an anonymous referee, as well as Raymond De Bondt, Paul Geroski, Mort Kamien, Steve Martin, Marno Verbeek, Gary Charness, James Costain, and Harry Bowen, for very helpful comments. We also thank the seminar participants at the London Business School, IESE Business School, Universidad Carlos III, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Universidad de Zaragoza, Universidad Publica de Navarra, the Universite Libre de Bruxelles, and Paris I and Paris XII, and the participants in ASSET (Bologna), LASEM (Cancun), and EARIE (Turin). The DWTC and IWT generously provided the data for this research. Cassiman acknowledges support from BEC2000-1026 and CIRIT 1997SGR00138, and Veugelers from CNRS, Enjeux Economiques de l’Innovation, and NFWO (G.0131.98). The paper was to a large extent written while Cassiman was assistant professor at the Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona and Veugelers was visiting the Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona and MIT [Sloan School (ICRMOT)].

Economic Status and Health in Childhood: The Origins of the Gradient

Abstract: The well-known positive association between health and income in adulthood has antecedents in childhood. Not only is children’s health positively related to household income, but the relationship between household income and children's health becomes more pronounced as children age. Part of the relationship can be explained by the arrival and impact of chronic conditions. Children from lower income households with chronic conditions have worse health than do those from higher-income households. The adverse health effects of lower income accumulate over children’s lives. Part of the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status may work through the impact of parents' income on children’s health.

Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820-1992

Abstract: This paper investigates the distribution of well being among world citizens during the last two centuries. The estimates show that inequality of world distribution of income worsened from the beginning of the 19th century to World War II and after that seems to have stabilized or to have grown more slowly. In the early 19th century most inequality was due to differences within countries; later, it was due to differences between countries. Inequality in longevity, also increased during the 19th century, but then was reversed in the second half of the 20th century, perhaps mitigating the failure of income inequality to improve in the last decades. (JEL D31, F0, N0, O0)

Last-Minute Bidding and the Rules for Ending Second-Price Auctions: Evidence from eBay and Amazon Auctions on the Internet

Abstract: Auctions on the Internet provide a new source of data on how bidding is in uenced by the detailed rules of the auction. Here we study the second-price auctions run by eBay and Amazon, in which a bidder submits a reservation price and has this (maximum) price used to bid for him by proxy. That is, a bidder can submit his reservation price (called a proxy bid) early in the auction and have the resulting bid register as the minimum increment above the previous high bid. As subsequent reservation prices are submitted, the bid rises by the minimum increment until the second-highest submitted reservation price is exceeded. Hence, an early bid with a reservation price higher than any other submitted during the auction will win the auction and pay only the minimum increment above the second-highest submitted reservation price. eBay and Amazon use different rules for ending an auction. Auctions on eBay have a Ž xed end time (a “hard close”), while auctions on Amazon, which operate under otherwise similar rules, are automatically extended if necessary past the scheduled end time until ten minutes have passed without a bid. These different rules give bidders more reason to bid late on eBay than on Amazon.We Ž nd that this is re ected in the auction data: the fraction of bids submitted in the closing seconds of the auction is substantially larger in eBay than in Amazon, and more experience causes bidders to bid later on eBay, but earlier on Amazon. Last-minute bidding, a practice called “sniping,” arises despite advice from both auctioneers and sellers in eBay that bidders should simply submit their maximum willingness to pay, once, early in the auction. For example, eBay instructs bidders on the simple economics of second-price auctions, using an example of a winning early bid. They discuss last-minute bids on a page explaining that they will not accept complaints about sniping, as follows:

Induced Innovation and Energy Prices

Abstract: This paper uses U.S. patent data from 1970 to 1994 to study the impact of energy prices on energy-efficient innovations. Theories of technological change have focused both on demand-side factors, which spur innovative activity by increasing the value of new innovations, and supply-side factors, such as scientific advancements that make new innovations possible. Data on demand-side factors are easily obtained, but data on supply-side factors that influence innovation are not readily available. This paper uses patent citations as a measure of the usefulness of the existing base of scientific knowledge. Citations to previous patents are used to construct productivity estimates, which measure the usefulness of the existing stock of knowledge to inventors in a given energy field for any given year. These estimates are then combined with data on demand-side factors to estimate a model of induced innovation in energy technologies. The results indicate that both energy prices and the supply of knowledge have strongly significant positive effects on innovation. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implication of this work for environmental policy.

Estimating Individual Discount Rates in Denmark: A Field Experiment

Abstract: We estimate individual discount rates with respect to time streams of money using controlled laboratory experiments. These discount rates are elicited by means of field experiments involving real monetary rewards. The experiments were carried out across Denmark using a representative sample of 268 people between 19 and 75 years of age. Individual discount rates are estimated for various households differentiated by socio-demographic characteristics such as income and age. Our conclusions are that discount rates are constant over the 12-month to 3-year horizons used in these experiments, and that discount rates vary substantially with respect to several socio-demographic variables. Hence we conclude that it would be reasonable to assume constant discount rates for specific household types, but not the same rates across all households.

Geographic Localization of International Technology Diffusion

Abstract: Income convergence across countries turns on whether technological knowledge spillovers are global or local. I estimate the amount of spillovers from R&D expenditures on a geographic basis, using a new data set which encompasses most of the world's innovative activity between 1970 and 1995. I find that technology is to a substantial degree local, not global, as the benefits from spillovers are declining with distance. The distance at which the amount of spillovers is halved is about 1,200 kilometers. I also find that over time, technological knowledge has become considerably more global. Moreover, language skills are important for spillover diffusion. (JEL F0, O1, O3)

Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market

Abstract: We present a method for decomposing wholesale electricity payments into production costs, inframarginal competitive rents, and payments resulting from the exercise of market power. The method also parses actual variable costs into the minimum variable costs necessary to meet demand and increased production costs caused by market power and other market inefficiencies. Using data from June 1998 to October 2000 in California, we find significant departures from competitive pricing, particularly during the high-demand summer months. Electricity expenditures in the state's restructured wholesale market rose from $2.04 billion in summer 1999 to $8.98 billion in summer 2000. We find that 21% of this increase was due to increased production costs, 20% was due to increased competitive rents, and the remaining 59% was attributable to increased market power.

Information and the change in the paradigm in economics

Abstract: The research for which George Akerlof, Mike Spence, and I are being recognized is part of a larger research program which, today, embraces hundred, perhaps thousands, of researchers around the worl...

The Role of Agriculture in Development

Abstract: A longstanding question in economics is why some countries are so much richer than others. Today, for example, income per capita in the world's richest countries is roughly thirty-five times greater than it is in the world's poorest countries. Recent work argues that the proximate cause of the disparity is that today's poor countries began the process of industrialization much later and that this process is slow. In this paper we argue that a model of structural transformation provides a useful theory of both why industrialization occurs at different dates, and why it proceeds slowly. A key implication of this model is that growth in agricultural productivity is central to development, a message that also appears prominently in the traditional development literature.

Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime: Comment

Abstract: Previous empirical studies have uncovered little evidence that police reduce crime, possibly due to simultaneity problems. This paper uses the timing of mayoral and gubernatorial elections as an instrumental variable to identify a causal effect of police on crime. Increases in the size of police forces are shown to be disproportionately concentrated in mayoral and gubernatorial election years. Increases in police are shown to substantially reduce violent crime, but have a smaller impact on property crime. The null hypothesis that the marginal social benefit of reduced crime equals the costs of hiring additional police cannot be rejected.

Hardnose the Dictator

Abstract: Lab experiments have gone to extremes to isolate and repress other-regarding behavior in extensive-form bargaining games, with limited success. Consider, for example, Elizabeth Hoffman et al.’s (1996; hereafter HMS) Anonymous Dictator game. This game controls self-interested strategic behavior by giving a person complete control over the distribution of wealth, and complete anonymity from all others including the experimenter. While theory predicts people with complete control and complete anonymity will offer up nothing to others, in fact they still share the wealth in about 40 percent of the observed bargains. Such other-regarding choice is another example in which individual behavior differs from that predicted by subgame perfection, and supports the call for a new “behavioral game theory” (Colin F. Camerer, 1997). Herein we extend the work of HMS to reveal a setting in which 95 percent of dictators follow game-theoretic predictions. In contrast to previous studies, our design has people bargain over earned wealth rather than unearned wealth granted by the experimenter. We argue that just as rewards must be salient (Kyung Hwan Baik et al., 1999), the assets in a bargain must be legitimate to produce rational behavior. Our results support this conjecture. Dictators bargaining over earned wealth were more selfinterested than observed in previous studies; and when they had complete anonymity, selfless behavior is essentially eliminated.

Do Corrupt Governments Receive Less Foreign Aid

Abstract: Critics of foreign aid programs argue that these funds often support corrupt governments and inefficient bureaucracies. Supporters argue that foreign aid can be used to reward good governments. This paper documents that there is no evidence that less corrupt governments receive more foreign aid. On the contrary, according to some measures of corruption, more corrupt governments receive more aid. Also, we could not find any evidence that an increase in foreign aid reduces corruption. In summary, the answer to the question posed in the title is "no."

The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?

Abstract: We document the return to investing in U.S. nonpublicly traded equity. Entrepreneurial investment is extremely concentrated, yet despite its poor diversification, we find that the returns to private equity are no higher than the returns to public equity. Given the large public equity premium, it is puzzling why households willingly invest substantial amounts in a single privately held firm with a seemingly far worse risk-return trade-off We briefly discuss how large nonpecuniary benefits, a preference for skewness, or overestimates of the probability of survival could potentially explain investment in private equity despite these findings. (JEL G11, G12, M 13)

Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio

Abstract: For most homeowners, the house is the single most important consumption good appearing as an argument of the utility function, and, at the same time, the dominant asset in the portfolio. This paper uses a mean-variance efficiency framework to examine the household’s optimal portfolio problem when owner-occupied housing is included in the list of available assets. Housing differs from stocks and bonds in a crucial way: since the household’s ownership of residential real estate determines the level of its consumption of housing services, the household’s demand for real estate is “overdetermined” in the sense that the level of real estate ownership which is optimal from the point of view of the consumption of housing services may differ from the optimal level of housing assets from a portfolio point of view. With rental markets for housing, a household can, in principle, divorce the size of its holdings of real estate assets from the level of housing services it consumes. However, rental housing is by no means a perfect substitute for owner-occupied housing. We assume, instead, that the preferential tax treatment of owner-occupied housing and the transactions costs and agency costs involved in the rental market for housing create frictions large enough to effectively constrain the household to include in its asset portfolio the level of housing consistent with its consumption of housing services. The paper focuses on the impact of the portfolio constraint imposed by the consumption demand for housing on the household’s optimal holdings of financial assets. Section II of the paper is similar in spirit to a recent paper by Jan K. Brueckner (1997), which analyzes the interaction between the consumption demand and the investment demand for housing in a mean-variance portfolio model. Brueckner considers a general covariance matrix and mean vector of returns and a general utility function, and derives analytical results. In contrast, our implementation of the meanvariance framework is quantitative. That is, we estimate the covariance matrix and vector of expected returns for housing and financial assets and solve for the efficient frontiers and optimal portfolios numerically. The risk characteristics of housing are estimated using two distinct sources: data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and data from Karl E. Case and Robert J. Shiller (1989) based on repeat sales transactions prices for four U.S. cities. Both data sources indicate that housing prices have a large idiosyncratic component; the standard deviation of the return to housing, at the level of the individual house, is about 0.14. In addition to housing, the portfolio can include nonnegative amounts of Treasury bills, Treasury bonds, and stocks. The household can borrow only in the form of a mortgage, which is limited to 100 percent of the value of the house. Using the estimated vector of expected returns and covariance matrix of asset returns, we plot the constrained meanvariance efficient frontiers for various values of the household’s ratio of house value to wealth, h (the “housing constraint”). The housing constraint has an enormous effect on the risk and return trade-off available to the household. Young households, which typically have large holdings of real estate relative to their net worth, are highly leveraged and therefore forced into a situation of high risk (and return). As a result, these young households have a strong incentive to reduce the risk of their portfolio by using their net worth to either pay down their * Flavin: Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego, CA 92093, and National Bureau of Economic Research (e-mail: mflavin@ucsd.edu); Yamashita: Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV 89154 (e-mail: tyamashi@ccmail.nevada.edu). We thank Elena Bisagni, Jan Brueckner, Wouter den Haan, James Hamilton, Bruce Lehmann, Greg Mankiw, and the referees for comments, and Robert Shiller for providing the house price transactions data. 1 The implications of the dual role of housing (as both a consumption good and an investment good) for tenure decisions of households were first analyzed by J. Vernon Henderson and Yannis M. Ioannides (1983).

Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry

Abstract: The pattern of disagreement between bond raters suggests that banks and insurance firms are inherently more opaque than other types of firms. Moody's and S&P split more often over these financial intermediaries, and the splits are more lopsided, as theory here predicts. Uncertainty over the banks stems from certain assets, loans and trading assets in particular, the risks of which are hard to observe or easy to change. Banks' high leverage, which invites agency problems, compounds the uncertainty over their assets. These findings bear on both the existence and reform

Insuring Consumption Against Illness

Abstract: One of the most sizable and least predictable shocks to economic opportunities in developing countries is major illness. We investigate the extent to which families are able to insure consumption against major illness using a unique panel data set from Indonesia that combines excellent measures of health status with consumption information. We find that there are significant economic costs associated with major illness, and that there is very imperfect insurance of consumption over illness episodes. These estimates suggest that public disability insurance or subsidies for medical care may improve welfare by providing consumption insurance.

Property Rights and Finance

Abstract: Which is the tighter constraint on private sector investment: weak property rights or limited access to external finance? From a survey of new firms in post-communist countries, we find that weak property rights discourage firms from reinvesting their profits, even when bank loans are available. Where property rights are relatively strong, firms reinvest their profits; where they are relatively weak, entrepreneurs do not want to invest from retained earnings.

Bones, bombs and break points: The geography of economic activity

Abstract: We consider the distribution of economic activity within a country in light of three leading theories—increasing returns, random growth, and locational fundamentals. To do so, we examine the distribution of regional population in Japan from the Stone Age to the modern era. We also consider the Allied bombing of Japanese cities in WWII as a shock to relative city sizes. Our results support a hybrid theory in which locational fundamentals establish the spatial pattern of relative regional densities, but increasing returns help to determine the degree of spatial differentiation. Long-run city size is robust even to large temporary shocks.

Technological Change, Technological Catch-up, and Capital Deepening: Relative Contributions to Growth and Convergence

Abstract: We decompose labor-productivity growth into components attributable to (1) technological change (shifts in the world production frontier), (2) technological catch-up (movements toward or away from the frontier), and (3) capital accumulation (movement along the frontier). The world production frontier is constructed using deterministic methods requiring no specification of functional form for the technology nor any assumption about market structure or the absence of market imperfections. We analyze the evolution of the cross-country distribution of labor productivity in terms of the tripartite decomposition, finding that technological change is decidedly nonneutral and that both growth and bipolar international divergence are driven primarily by capital deepening. (JEL O30, O47, D24)

Longer-Term Effects of Head Start

Abstract: Specially collected data on adults in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics are used to provide evidence on the longer-term effects of Head Start, an early intervention program for poor preschool-age children. Whites who attended Head Start are, relative to their siblings who did not, significantly more likely to complete high school, attend college, and possibly have higher earnings in their early twenties. African-Americans who participated in Head Start are less likely to have been booked or charged with a crime. There is some evidence of positive spillovers from older Head Start children to their younger siblings. Language: en

Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Say?

Abstract: This paper examines the link between information technology (IT) and the U.S. productivity revival in the late 1990s. Industry-level data show a broad productivity resurgence that reflects both the production and the use of IT. The most IT-intensive industries experienced significantly larger productivity gains than other industries and a wide variety of econometric tests show a strong correlation between IT capital accumulation and labor productivity. To quantify the aggregate impact of IT-use and IT-production, a novel decomposition of aggregate labor productivity is presented. Results show that virtually all of the aggregate productivity acceleration can be traced to the industries that either produce IT or use IT most intensively, with essentially no contribution from the remaining industries that are less involved in the IT revolution.

Malthus to Solow

Abstract: A unified growth theory is developed that accounts for the roughly constant living standards displayed by world economies prior to 1800 as well as the growing living standards exhibited by modern industrial economies. Our theory also explains the industrial revolution which is the transition from an era when per capita incomes are stagnant to one with sustained growth.... [The authors] use a standard growth model with...[several] technologies. The first denoted the Malthus technology requires land labor and reproducible capital as inputs. The second denoted the Solow technology does not require land. [The authors] show that in the early stages of development only the Malthus technology is used and due to population growth living standards are stagnant despite technological progress. Eventually technological progress causes the Solow technology to become profitable and both technologies are employed. At this point living standards improve since population growth has less influence on per capita income growth. In the limit the economy behaves like a standard Solow growth model. (EXCERPT)

Vouchers for Private Schooling in Colombia: Evidence from a Randomized Natural Experiment

Abstract: Colombia used lotteries to distribute vouchers which partially covered the cost of private secondary school for students who maintained satisfactory academic progress. Three years after the lotteries, winners were about 10 percentage points more likely to have finished 8th grade, primarily because they were less likely to repeat grades, and scored 0.2 standard deviations higher on achievement tests. There is some evidence that winners worked less than losers and were less likely to marry or cohabit as teenagers. Benefits to participants likely exceeded the $24 per winner additional cost to the government of supplying vouchers instead of public-school places.

Hazards of Expropriation: Tenure Insecurity and Investment in Rural China

Abstract: This paper uses household data from Northeast China to examine the link between investment and land tenure insecurity induced by China’s system of village-level land reallocation. We quantify expropriation risk using a hazard analysis of individual plot tenures and incorporate the predicted “hazards of expropriation” into an empirical analysis of plot-level investment. Our focus is on organic fertilizer use, which has long lasting benefits for soil quality. Although we find that higher expropriation risk significantly reduces application of organic fertilizer, a welfare analysis shows that guaranteeing land tenure in this part of China would yield only minimal efficiency gains.

The Household Bankruptcy Decision

Abstract: Personal bankruptcy filings have risen from 0.3 percent of households per year in 1984 to around 1.35 percent in 1998 and 1999, transforming bankruptcy from a rare occurrence to a routine event. Lenders lost about $39 billion in 1998 due to personal bankruptcy filings. But economists have little understanding of why households file for bankruptcy or why filings have increased so rapidly. Until very recently, studying the household bankruptcy decision was very difficult, because no household-level data set existed that included information on bankruptcy filings. In this paper, we use new data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, which includes information on bankruptcy filings, to estimate a model of households’ bankruptcy decisions. We find support for the strategic model of bankruptcy, which predicts that households are more likely to file when their financial benefit from filing is higher. Our model predicts that an increase of $1,000 in households’ financial benefit from bankruptcy would result in a 7-percent increase in the number of bankruptcy filings. Our model also predicts that if the 1997 National Bankruptcy Review Commission’s proposed changes in bankruptcy exemption levels were implemented, there would be a 16-percent increase in the number of bankruptcy filings each year. But if the $100,000 cap on homestead exemptions recently passed by the U.S. Senate were adopted, our model predicts that there would be only a negligible effect on the number of filings. We find little support for the nonstrategic model of bankruptcy which predicts that households file when adverse events occur which reduce their ability to repay. Finally, controlling for state and time fixed effects, our model shows that households are more likely to file for bankruptcy if they live in districts with higher aggregate filing rates.