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Showing papers in "The Economic Journal in 2021"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide nationwide estimates of air pollution's effect on short-run labor productivity for manufacturing firms in China from 1998 to 2007 and instrument for reverse causality between pollution and output using thermal inversions.
Abstract: We provide nationwide estimates of air pollution’s effect on short-run labor productivity for manufacturing firms in China from 1998 to 2007. An emerging literature estimates air pollution’s effects on labor productivity but only for small groups of workers of particular occupations or firms. To provide more comprehensive estimates necessary for policy analysis, we estimate effects for all but some small firms (90% of China’s manufacturing output) and capture all channels by which pollution influences productivity. We instrument for reverse causality between pollution and output using thermal inversions. Our causal estimates imply that a one

99 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors study the microeconomic implications of robot adoption using a rich panel data set of Spanish manufacturing firms over a 27-year period (1990-2016) and provide causal evidence on two central questions: (1) which firm characteristics prompt firms to adopt robots; (2) What is the impact of robots on adopting firms relative to non-adopting firms.
Abstract: We study the microeconomic implications of robot adoption using a rich panel data set of Spanish manufacturing firms over a 27-year period (1990–2016) We provide causal evidence on two central questions: (1) Which firm characteristics prompt firms to adopt robots? (2) What is the impact of robots on adopting firms relative to non-adopting firms? To address these questions, we look at our data through the lens of recent attempts in the literature to formalise the implications of robot technology As for the first question, we establish robust evidence for positive selection, ie, ex ante better performing firms (measured through output and labour productivity) are more likely to adopt robots On the other hand, conditional on size, ex ante more skill-intensive firms are less likely to do so As for the second question, we find that robot adoption generates substantial output gains in the vicinity of 20–25% within four years, reduces the labour cost share by 5–7% points, and leads to net job creation at a rate of 10% These results are robust to controlling for non-random selection into robot adoption through a difference-in-differences approach combined with a propensity score reweighting estimator To further validate these results, we also offer structural estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) where robot technology enters the (endogenous) productivity process of firms The results demonstrate a positive causal effect of robots on productivity as well as a complementarity between robots and exporting in boosting productivity

85 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a unique data set that covers almost all bank-firm relationships in Italy in the period 2008-2013, and found that under-capitalized banks cut credit to healthy firms (but not to zombie firms) and are more likely to prolong a credit relationship with a zombie firm, compared to stronger banks.
Abstract: Do banks with low capital extend excessive credit to weak firms, and does this matter for aggregate efficiency? Using a unique data set that covers almost all bank-firm relationships in Italy in the period 2008-2013, we find that, during the Eurozone financial crisis: (i) Under-capitalized banks cut credit to healthy firms (but not to zombie firms) and are more likely to prolong a credit relationship with a zombie firm, compared to stronger banks. (ii) In areas-sectors with more low-capital banks, zombie firms are more likely to survive and non-zombies are more likely to go bankrupt; (iii) Nevertheless, bank under-capitalization does not hurt the growth rate of healthy firms, while it allows zombie firms to grow faster. This goes against previous influential findings that, we argue, face a serious identification problem. Thus, while banks with low capital can be an important source of aggregate inefficiency in the long run, their contribution to the severity of the great recession via capital misallocation was modest.

67 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the role of management in agricultural productivity by evaluating a mobile-phone based agricultural advice service provided to farmers in India and found that advice changes practices, increasing yields in cumin (28%) and cotton (8.6%) for a subgroup receiving reminders.
Abstract: We examine the role of management in agricultural productivity, by evaluating a mobile-phone based agricultural advice service provided to farmers in India. Demand for advice is high; and advice changes practices, increasing yields in cumin (28%) and cotton (8.6%, for a sub-group receiving reminders). Information spreads, as non-treated farmers with more treated peers change practices and lose less to pest attacks. Though willingness to pay for the service is low, the value of the information externality exceeds the subsidy that would be necessary to operate the service. We estimate each dollar spent on the service yields a $10 private return. JEL Classification Numbers: O12, O13, Q16

52 citations


ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements are estimated and shown to reduce bilateral export values and trade participation in the UK's exit from the European Union (Brexit) by 15 log points on average.
Abstract: We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products and asymmetric for UK and EU exporters. We estimate that a persistent doubling of the probability of Brexit at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% lowers EU-UK bilateral export values by 15 log points on average, and more so for EU than UK exporters. Neither believed a trade war was likely.

50 citations


ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors study and compare the effect of the transition from dictatorship to democracy in a model where the type of government and borders of the country are endogenous and find that the threat of democratisation provides the strongest incentive to homogenise.
Abstract: Democracies and dictatorships have different incentives when it comes to choosing how much and by what means to homogenise the population, i.e., ‘to build a nation’. We study and compare nation-building policies under the transition from dictatorship to democracy in a model where the type of government and borders of the country are endogenous. We find that the threat of democratisation provides the strongest incentive to homogenise. We focus upon a specific nation-building policy: mass primary education. We offer historical discussions of nation-building across time and space, and provide correlations for a large sample of countries over the 1925–2014 period.

46 citations


ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the historical dynamics of fertility decline in Europe and its relation to measures of cultural and ancestral distance, and test the hypothesis that the decline of fertility was associated with the diusion of social and behavioral changes from France, in contrast with the spread of the Industrial Revolution, where England played a leading role.
Abstract: We investigate the historical dynamics of the decline in fertility in Europe and its relation to measures of cultural and ancestral distance. We test the hypothesis that the decline of fertility was associated with the diusion of social and behavioral changes from France, in contrast with the spread of the Industrial Revolution, where England played a leading role. We argue that the diusion of the fertility decline and the spread of industrialization followed dierent patterns because societies at dierent relative distances from the respective innovators (the French and the English) faced dierent barriers to imitation and adoption, and such barriers were lower for societies that were historically and culturally closer to the innovators. We provide a model of fertility choices in which the transition from higher to lower levels of fertility is the outcome of a process of social innovation and social in‡uence, whereby late adopters observe and learn about the novel behaviors, norms and practices introduced by early adopters at the frontier. In the empirical analysis we study the determinants of marital fertility in a sample of European populations and regions from 1830 to 1970, and successfully test our theoretical predictions using measures of genetic distance between European populations and a novel data set of ancestral linguistic distances between European regions.

43 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the results of a randomised experiment evaluating the effects of a home-based parenting program delivered by cadres in China's Family Planning Commission (FPC), the former enforcers of the one-child policy.
Abstract: A key challenge in developing countries interested in providing early childhood development (ECD) programmes at scale is whether these programmes can be effectively delivered through existing public service infrastructures. We present the results of a randomised experiment evaluating the effects of a home-based parenting programme delivered by cadres in China’s Family Planning Commission (FPC)—the former enforcers of the one-child policy. We find that the programme significantly increased infant skill development after six months and that increased investments by caregivers alongside improvements in parenting skills were a major mechanism through which this occurred. Children who lagged behind in their cognitive development and received little parental investment at the onset of the intervention benefited most from the programme. Household participation in the programme was associated with the degree to which participants had a favourable view of the FPC, which also increased due to the programme.

42 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a model of cultural transmission by looking at the type of rst names given by parents to their newborn children is presented, which implies that the parents are ready to abandon one year of expected average income for their child in order to transmit their cultural trait.
Abstract: This paper estimates a model of cultural transmission by looking at the type of rst names given by parents to their newborn children. We focus on the transmission of Arabic name versus Non-Arabic name in the French society and disentangle the relative contribution of vertical transmission of parental culture, horizontal transmission from the neighborhood’s culture and the economic penalty associated with names that sound culturally distinctive in the French society. We use the French Labor Force Survey which is based on data collection of names and socio-economic characteristics for all individuals living within the same residential block of 20 neighboring households. To get rid of endogenous residential sorting, our estimates are based on the sample of households who are randomly allocated across public housings dwellings. We nd that parents do take into account the expected economic cost that they inict to their child by choosing a culturally distinctive name. Our estimates imply that the parents are ready to abandon one year of expected average income for their child in order to transmit their cultural trait.

41 citations


ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the emergence of equality before the law is studied in a setting where all agents are subject to the same coercive punishments and norms are more equal than non-elites.
Abstract: We propose a simple model of the emergence of equality before the law. A society can support effort (‘cooperation’, ‘prosocial behaviour’) using the carrot of future cooperation or the stick of coercive punishment. Community enforcement relies only on the carrot and involves low coercion, low inequality and low effort. A society in which elites control the means of violence supplements the carrot with the stick, and involves high coercion, high inequality and high effort. In this regime, elites are privileged by both laws and norms: because they are not subject to the same punishments as non-elites, norms are also more favourable for them. Nevertheless, it may be optimal—even from the elites’ perspective—to establish equality before the law, where all agents are subject to the same coercive punishments and norms are more equal. The key mechanism is that equality before the law increases elites’ effort, which improves the carrot of future cooperation and thus encourages even higher effort from non-elites. Equality before the law combines high coercion and low inequality. Factors that make equality before the law more likely to emerge include limits on the extent of coercion, greater marginal returns to effort, increases in the size of the elite group, greater political power for non-elites and, under some additional conditions, lower economic inequality.

37 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors showed that when voters are unfamiliar with basic government capabilities, merely informing them of what politicians could do is sufficient to decrease support for incumbents, however, politicians can counteract this decrease in support by increasing clientelistic practices such as vote buying.
Abstract: Despite the prominence of information in theories of electoral accountability, providing voters with information often fails to improve politician performance. Using two experiments in the Philippines, we show that when voters are unfamiliar with basic government capabilities, merely informing them of what politicians could do is sufficient to decrease support for incumbents. However, politicians can counteract this decrease in support by increasing clientelistic practices such as vote buying. Our work shows how even neutral information campaigns can improve the leverage of voters vis-a-vis their politicians, offering guidance for the design of interventions to change the electoral equilibrium in clientelistic countries.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper found that socially disadvantaged students are less likely to aspire to the top educational pathways than their advantaged classmates who have the same test scores, and that lower educational aspirations at a point in time are associated with poorer school outcomes later on.
Abstract: Socially disadvantaged students are less likely to aspire to the top educational pathways than their advantaged classmates who have the same test scores We identify two behavioural biases that explain most of this gap: socially disadvantaged students are less aware of the top educational pathways and underestimate their academic ability relative to their advantaged peers We also find that lower educational aspirations at a point in time are associated with poorer school outcomes later on, after controlling for many important factors Debiasing aspirations through information campaigns and self-esteem building programmes could thus help reduce social inequality in educational attainment

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a newly assembled dataset of narrowly georeferenced patents was used to investigate the role of suburban regions in innovation and found that high-density areas disproportionately generate innovation of unconventional nature.
Abstract: Using a newly assembled dataset of narrowly georeferenced patents, we document that innovation activity is not as concentrated in densely populated areas as commonly believed: suburban regions are responsible for a substantial share of the innovation produced. Nevertheless, high-density areas disproportionately generate innovation of unconventional nature. We provide causal evidence for a mechanism that can generate this pattern: unconventional ideas are more likely to emerge when people interact in a dense and technologically diverse environment. An endogenous growth model with heterogeneous innovation and spatial sorting reveals that optimal place-based policy in the U.S. would foster urbanization to promote unconventional ideas, at the cost of sacrificing growth and inducing higher congestion.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors investigate economic causes of the rising support of right-populist Alternative for Germany (AFD) in industrialised countries and find that exposure to imports from low-wage countries increases the support for nationalist parties between 1987-2009.
Abstract: We investigate economic causes of the rising support of populist parties in industrialised countries. Looking at Germany, we find that exposure to imports from low-wage countries increases the support for nationalist parties between 1987–2009, while increasing exports have the opposite effect. The net effect translates into increasing support of the right-populist Alternative for Germany party after its emergence in 2013. Individual data from the German Socio-Economic Panel reveal that low-skilled manufacturing workers’ political preferences are most responsive to trade exposure. Using a novel approach to causal mediation analysis, we identify trade-induced labour market adjustments as an economic mechanism causing the voting response to international trade.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper examined the relationship between economic risk and the evolution of social cooperation and found that trust developed in pre-industrial times as a result of experiences of cooperation aimed at coping with climatic risk.
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between economic risk and the evolution of social cooperation. We hypothesise that trust developed in pre-industrial times as a result of experiences of cooperation aimed at coping with climatic risk. We document that European regions with higher pre-industrial climatic variability display higher levels of trust today. This effect is driven by variability in the growing season months and is more pronounced in agricultural regions. Regarding possible mechanisms, our results indicate that climatic risk favoured intercommunity exchange and the early adoption of inclusive political institutions which is associated with higher quality of local governments today.

ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that limited wage flexibility in economic downturns generates strong and state-dependent amplification of uncertainty shocks, and that higher uncertainty can severely deepen a recession, although its impact is weaker on average.
Abstract: We show that limited wage flexibility in economic downturns generates strong and state-dependent amplification of uncertainty shocks. It also explains the cyclical behavior of empirical measures of uncertainty. Central to our analysis is the existence of matching frictions in the labor market and an occasionally binding constraint on downward wage adjustment. The wage constraint enhances the concavity of firms' hiring rule, generating an endogenous profit-risk premium. In turn, uncertainty shocks increase the profit-risk premium when the economy operates close to the wage constraint. This implies that higher uncertainty can severely deepen a recession, although its impact is weaker on average. Non-linear local projections and VAR estimates support the model predictions. Additionally, the variance of the unforecastable component of future economic outcomes always increases at times of low economic activity. Thus, measured uncertainty rises in a recession even in the absence of uncertainty shocks.

ReportDOI
TL;DR: This paper examined the importance of geographical proximity to coal as a factor underpinning comparative European economic development during the Industrial Revolution and found that coal exhibits a strong influence on city population size from 1800 onward.
Abstract: We examine the importance of geographical proximity to coal as a factor underpinning comparative European economic development during the Industrial Revolution. Our analysis exploits geographical variation in city and coalfield locations, alongside temporal variation in the availability of coal-powered technologies, to quantify the effect of coal availability on historic city population sizes. Since we suspect that our coal measure could be endogenous, we use a geologically derived measure as an instrumental variable: proximity to rock strata from the Carboniferous era. Consistent with traditional historical accounts of the Industrial Revolution, we find that coal exhibits a strong influence on city population size from 1800 onward. Counterfactual estimates of city population sizes indicate that our estimated coal effect explains at least 60% of the growth in European city populations from 1750 to 1900. This result is robust to a number of alternative modelling assumptions regarding missing historical population data, spatially lagged effects, and the exclusion of the United Kingdom from the estimation sample.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors examined 220 estimates of the present bias parameter from 28 articles using the Convex Time Budget protocol and found that people are on average present biased, but the estimates exhibit substantial heterogeneity across studies.
Abstract: We examine 220 estimates of the present-bias parameter from 28 articles using the Convex Time Budget protocol. The literature shows that people are on average present biased, but the estimates exhibit substantial heterogeneity across studies. There is evidence of modest selective reporting in the direction of overreporting present-bias. The primary source of the heterogeneity is the type of reward, either monetary or non-monetary reward, but the effect is weakened after correcting for potential selective reporting. In the studies using the monetary reward, the delay until the issue of the reward associated with the "current" time period is shown to influence the estimates of present bias parameter.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a large-scale government subsidy aimed at encouraging people to eat out in restaurants in the wake of the first 2020 COVID19 wave in the United Kingdom has had a large causal impact in accelerating the subsequent second COVID2019 wave.
Abstract: This paper documents that a large-scale government subsidy aimed at encouraging people to eat out in restaurants in the wake of the first 2020 COVID19 wave in the United Kingdom has had a large causal impact in accelerating the subsequent second COVID19 wave. The scheme subsidized 50% off the cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks for an unlimited number of visits in participating restaurants on Mondays-Wednesdays from August 3 to August 31, 2020. Areas with higher take-up saw both, a notable increase in new COVID19 infection clusters within a week of the scheme starting, and again, a deceleration in infections within two weeks of the program ending. Areas that exhibit notable rainfall during the prime lunch and dinner hours on days the scheme was active record lower infection incidence – a pattern that is also measurable in mobility data – and non-detectable on days during which the discount was not available or for rainfall outside the core lunch and dinner hours. A back of the envelope calculation suggests that the program is accountable for between 8 to 17 percent of all new local infection clusters during that time period.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper used a natural field experiment to estimate the causal effect of race on discretionary favours in the marketplace, and found that white privilege extends to unregulated daily interactions, showing that bus drivers were twice as willing to let white testers ride free as black testers (72% vs. 36% of the time).
Abstract: We use a natural field experiment to estimate the causal effect of race on discretionary favours in the marketplace. Test customers are randomly assigned to board public buses with no money to purchase a fare, leaving the bus driver to voluntarily decide whether to offer them a free ride. Based on 1,552 transactions, we uncover strong evidence of racial bias: bus drivers were twice as willing to let white testers ride free as black testers (72% vs. 36% of the time). Signals of wealth and patriotism improve minority testers’ outcomes. Our results show that white privilege extends to unregulated daily interactions.

ReportDOI
TL;DR: This paper used a theory of apologies to design a nationwide field experiment involving 1.5 million Uber ridesharing consumers who experienced late rides and found that the efficacy of an apology and whether it may backfire depend on how the apology is made.
Abstract: We use a theory of apologies to design a nationwide field experiment involving 1.5 million Uber ridesharing consumers who experienced late rides. Several insights emerge from our field experiment. First, apologies are not a panacea: the efficacy of an apology and whether it may backfire depend on how the apology is made. Second, across treatments, money speaks louder than words – the best form of apology is to include a coupon for a future trip. Third, in some cases sending an apology is worse than sending nothing at all, particularly for repeated apologies. For firms, caveat venditor should be the rule when considering apologies.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors develop a theory that links individuals' network structure to their productivity and earnings, finding that information is particularly valuable under high uncertainty, whereas peer pressure is more valuable in the opposite case.
Abstract: We develop a theory that links individuals’ network structure to their productivity and earnings. While a higher degree leads to better access to information, more clustering leads to higher peer pressure. Both information and peer pressure affect effort in a model of team production, with each being beneficial in a different environment. We find that information is particularly valuable under high uncertainty, whereas peer pressure is more valuable in the opposite case. We apply our theory to gender disparities in performance. We document the novel fact that men establish more connections (a higher degree) whereas women possess denser networks (a higher clustering coefficient). We therefore expect men to outperform women in jobs that are characterised by high uncertainty in project outcomes and earnings. We provide suggestive evidence that supports our predictions.

ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors exploit local economic shocks generated by trade liberalization and variation in enforcement capacity across local labor markets in Brazil to investigate how enforcement of labor regulations shape the labor market effects of trade and whether the informal sector introduces greater de facto flexibility, reducing employment losses during bad times.
Abstract: How does enforcement of labor regulations shape the labor market effects of trade? Does the informal sector introduce greater de facto flexibility, reducing employment losses during bad times? To tackle these questions, we exploit local economic shocks generated by trade liberalization and variation in enforcement capacity across local labor markets in Brazil. In the aftermath of the trade opening, regions with stricter enforcement observed: (i) lower informality effects; (ii) larger losses in overall employment; and (iii) greater reductions in the number of formal plants. Regions with weaker enforcement observed opposite effects. All these effects are concentrated on low-skill workers. Our results indicate that greater de facto labor market flexibility introduced by informality allows both formal firms and low-skill workers to cope better with adverse labor market shocks.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a comprehensive meta-regression analysis of the elasticity of taxable (ETI) and broad income (EBI) was conducted to examine the large variation in estimates of ETI found in the literature, and they found that the ETI itself is endogenous to the underlying tax system.
Abstract: The elasticities of taxable (ETI) and broad income (EBI) are key parameters in optimal tax and welfare analysis. To examine the large variation in estimates found in the literature, I conduct a comprehensive meta-regression analysis of elasticities that measure behavioral responses to income taxation using information from 51 different studies containing 1,420 estimates. I find that heterogeneity in reported estimates is driven by regression techniques, sample restrictions and variations across countries and time. Moreover, I provide descriptive evidence of the correlation between contextual factors and the magnitude of an elasticity estimate. Overall, the study confirms the fact that the ETI itself is endogenous to the underlying tax system. I also document that selective reporting bias is prevalent in the literature. The direction of reporting bias depends on whether or not deductions are included in the tax base.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors study how employers and job-seekers respond to credible information on skills that are difficult to observe, and how this affects matching in the labor market, and experimentally vary whether certificates on workers' non-cognitive skills are disclosed to both sides of the market during job interviews between young workers and small firms in Uganda.
Abstract: We study how employers and job-seekers respond to credible information on skills that are difficult to observe, and how this affects matching in the labor market. We experimentally vary whether certificates on workers' non-cognitive skills are disclosed to both sides of the market during job interviews between young workers and small firms in Uganda. The certificates cause workers to increase their labor market expectations, while high-ability managers revise their assessments of the workers' skills upwards. The reaction in terms of beliefs leads to an increase in positive assortative matching and to higher earnings for workers, conditional on employment.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors investigated how co-ethnic networks affect the economic success of immigrants in Germany and found that immigrants in districts with larger coethnic networks are more likely to be employed soon after arrival.
Abstract: This paper investigates how co-ethnic networks affect the economic success of immigrants. Using longitudinal data of immigrants in Germany and including a large set of fixed effects and pre-migration controls to address the possible endogeneity of initial location, we find that immigrants in districts with larger co-ethnic networks are more likely to be employed soon after arrival. This advantage fades after four years, as migrants located in places with smaller co-ethnic networks catch up due to greater human capital investments. These effects appear stronger for lower-skilled immigrants, as well as for refugees and Ethnic Germans.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a geocoded database of historical interstate conflicts on the Indian subcontinent, from which they compute measures of local exposure to pre-colonial warfare, and show that districts that were more exposed to precolonial conflict experienced higher state-making and less political violence and higher infrastructre investments in the long term.
Abstract: We analyze the relationship between pre-colonial warfare and long-run development patterns in India. We construct a new geocoded database of historical interstate conflicts on the Indian subcontinent, from which we compute measures of local exposure to pre-colonial warfare. We document a positive and significant relationship between pre-colonial conflict exposure and local economic development across India today. This result is robust to numerous checks, including controls for geographic endowments, initial state capacity, colonial-era institutions, ethnic and religious fractionalization, and colonial and post-colonial conflict, and an instrumental variables strategy that exploits variation in pre-colonial conflict exposure driven by cost distance to the Khyber Pass. Drawing on rich archival and secondary data, we show that districts that were more exposed to pre-colonial conflict experienced greater local pre-colonial and colonial-era state-making, and less political violence and higher infrastructre investments in the long term. We argue that reductions in local levels of violence and greater investments in physical capital were at least in part a function of more powerful local government institutions.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of early between-school ability tracking on student achievement were investigated in German federal states, and they found evidence for positive effects of prolonged comprehensive schooling on mathematics and reading scores.
Abstract: I study the effects of early between-school ability tracking on student achievement, exploiting institutional differences between German federal states. In all states, about 40% of students transition to separate academic-track schools after comprehensive primary school. Depending on the state, the remaining student body is either directly tracked between two additional school types or taught comprehensively for another two years. Comparing these students before and after tracking in a tripledifferences framework, I find evidence for positive effects of prolonged comprehensive schooling on mathematics and reading scores. These are almost entirely driven by low-achievers. Early and rigid forms of tracking can thus impair both equity and efficiency of school systems.

ReportDOI
TL;DR: For example, this paper showed that fertility behavior is more forward looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought, and that fertility fertility is procyclical over the business cycle.
Abstract: Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. Using data on more than 100 million births from 1988 to 2014, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, there is a large and rapid fall in the growth rate of conceptions several quarters prior to economic decline. This newly emerging pattern appears in the aggregate data, as well as within individual states and in many European countries. Our findings suggest that fertility behaviour is more forward looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article conducted empirical tests using ownership variation on the Bakken, one of the world's most valuable shale oil reserves, and found that all three forms of fragmentation reduced production during the 2010-15 oil boom, especially joint ownership and the interspersion of small parcels of government and private land.
Abstract: Does land fragmentation impair spatially expansive natural resource use? We conduct empirical tests using ownership variation on the Bakken, one of the world's most valuable shale oil reserves. Long before shale was discovered, US policies created a mosaic of private, jointly owned and tribal government parcels on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation. We find that all three forms of fragmentation reduced production during the 2010–15 oil boom, especially joint ownership and the interspersion of small parcels of government and private land. We estimate implied gains from consolidation and discuss implications for the use (or conservation) of other spatially expansive resources.