Journal•ISSN: 0195-6574
The Energy Journal
International Association for Energy Economics
About: The Energy Journal is an academic journal published by International Association for Energy Economics. The journal publishes majorly in the area(s): Electricity market & Electricity. It has an ISSN identifier of 0195-6574. Over the lifetime, 2013 publications have been published receiving 81784 citations. The journal is also known as: Energy Journal.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
More filters
TL;DR: The authors examines the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices and concludes that although scarcity rent made a negligible contribution to the price of oil in 1997, it could now begin to play a role.
Abstract: This paper examines the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices. The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil prices, relates this to the predictions of theory, and looks in detail at key features of petroleum demand and supply. Topics discussed include the role of commodity speculation, OPEC, and resource depletion. The paper concludes that although scarcity rent made a negligible contribution to the price of oil in 1997, it could now begin to play a role.
1,120 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that an oil price change is likely to have greater impact on real GNP than in an environment where oil price movement has been frequent and erratic, and they find that positive normalized shocks have a powerful effect on growth while negative normalized shocks do not.
Abstract: In this paper we argue that an oil price change is likely to have greater impact on real GNP in an environment where oil prices have been stable, than in an environment where oil price movement has been frequent and erratic. An oil price shock variable reflecting both the unanticipated component and the time-varying conditional variance of oil price change (forecasts) is constructed and found to be highly significant in explaining economic growth across different sample periods, even when matched against various economic variables and other functions of oil price. We find that positive normalized shocks have a powerful effect on growth while negative normalized shocks do not. 30 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.
955 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed an empirical specification for motor vehicles based on a simple aggregate model that simultaneously determines vehicle-miles traveled (VMT), vehicles, and fuel efficiency.
Abstract: It has long been realized that improving energy efficiency releases an economic reaction that partially offsets the original energy saving. As the energy efficiency of some process improves, the process becomes cheaper, thereby providing an incentive to increase its use. Thus total energy consumption changes less than proportionally to changes in physical energy efficiency. For motor vehicles, the process under consideration is use of fuel in producing vehicle-miles traveled (VMT). Our empirical specification is based on a simple aggregate model that simultaneously determines VMT, vehicles, and fuel efficiency. The coefficient on the lagged dependent variable implies considerable inertia in behavior, with people adjusting their travel in a given year by just 21 percent of the ultimate response to a permanent change. The equation exhibits only mild autocorrelation, giving people confidence that their specification accounts for most influences that move sluggishly over time.
838 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the indiscriminate use of mandated standards will backfire, but a mix of selective standards and reliance on prices as a restraint can be effective.
Abstract: Regulations which mandate appliance efficiency standards may be based on calculations which exaggerate the potential energy savings. Improved efficiency can, in fact, increase demand enough to be counterproductive unless the standards are applied selectively. As appliances improve, they are used more, new stock is demanded, and the demand for and use of related equipment increases. The policy implications of these empirical studies are that the indiscriminate use of mandated standards will backfire, but a mix of selective standards and reliance on prices as a restraint can be effective. 11 references, 5 figures, 2 tables. (DCK)
802 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a model that explicitly models the vehicle saturation level as a function of observable country characteristics: urbanization and population density, is proposed, and the model is estimated on the basis of pooled time-series (1960-2002) and cross-section data for 45 countries that include 75 percent of the worldOs population.
Abstract: The speed of vehicle ownership expansion in emerging market and developing countries has important implications for transport and environmental policies, as well as the global oil market. The literature remains divided on the issue of whether the vehicle ownership rates will ever catch up to the levels common in the advanced economies. This paper contributes to the debate by building a model that explicitly models the vehicle saturation level as a function of observable country characteristics: urbanization and population density. Our model is estimated on the basis of pooled time-series (1960-2002) and cross-section data for 45 countries that include 75 percent of the worldOs population. We project that the total vehicle stock will increase from about 800 million in 2002 to more than two billion units in 2030. By this time, 56% of the worldOs vehicles will be owned by non-OECD countries, compared with 24% in 2002. In particular, ChinaOs vehicle stock will increase nearly twenty-fold, to 390 million in 2030. This fast speed of vehicle ownership expansion implies rapid growth in oil demand.
732 citations