Showing papers in "The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology in 2020"
TL;DR: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Research Task Group IST-152 developed a concept and a reference architecture for intelligent software agents performing active, largely autonomous cyber-defense actions on military assets, where such an agent is referred to as an Autonomous Intelligent Cyber-defense Agent (AICA).
Abstract: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Research Task Group IST-152 developed a concept and a reference architecture for intelligent software agents performing active, largely autonomous cybe...
9 citations
TL;DR: This paper identifies eight challenges to the adoption of modeling and simulation in operations planning and presents a decision support concept that incorporates several elements to counter the challenges identified in the form of a prototype approach called Comprehensive Operations Support with Modeling and Simulation (COSMOS).
Abstract: Modern warfighting is not only conducted on the physical battlefield but also engages actors in the information and human landscapes. Across these landscapes many types of actors characterize a comprehensive environment. A commander and staff follow the operations planning process to translate a desired end-state to tactical effects and activities. Understanding the interactions between actors and factors that shape conflict and understanding how they can be influenced is highly challenging. Modeling and simulation methods that aim to describe and understand the behavior of complex systems can serve to structure information, derive problem insights, and identify effective interventions. These methods are not, however, common as part of operations planning and intelligence processes. This paper documents findings based on reported experiences from practice and based on concept development and experimentation workshops conducted with Dutch Armed Forces stakeholders. We identify eight challenges to the adoption of modeling and simulation in operations planning. We then present a decision support concept that incorporates several elements to counter the challenges identified in the form of a prototype approach called Comprehensive Operations Support with Modeling and Simulation (COSMOS). We describe the approach along several process steps, illustrated by examples from the concept development and experimentation case studies. We identify several avenues for future research assisting adoption of modeling and simulation in the operations planning process.
5 citations
TL;DR: An analytical model of precision-guided fragmentation munitions effects for low-resolution simulations is developed that addresses the Carlton Damage Function’s shortcomings and implementation issues and develops a response surface that analytically models the nonlinear behavior of the dependent variable.
Abstract: The use of precision-guided artillery rounds has increased in recent years, but analytical models within simulations that enable effect analysis and tradeoff analysis between precision and conventi...
4 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present two case studies using system dynamics to analyze the sustainability of military workforce supply chains, one case is about multi-period force expansion, and the other case is an analytical e...
Abstract: This article presents two case studies using system dynamics to analyze the sustainability of military workforce supply chains. The first case is about multi-period force expansion. An analytical e...
2 citations
TL;DR: In the Republic of Kazakhstan, one of the most important security issues is the preparation of the country for war and armed conflicts as mentioned in this paper, where the historical facts of past wars, armed conflicts and natural and man-made emergencies are studied.
Abstract: Studying the historical facts of past wars and armed conflicts and natural and man-made emergencies, today in the Republic of Kazakhstan one of the most important security issues is the preparation...
1 citations
TL;DR: Three papers focused on state-of-the-art mod/sim approaches for supporting the defense of cyber systems that underpin a nation-state’s critical infrastructure, and the exploration of alternative system defenses and threats to prepare for future attacks are presented.
Abstract: Complex environments, such as the cyber domain, can benefit from modeling and simulation (mod/sim) to understand the impact of new concepts and capabilities to cyber defense. Mod/sim techniques are particularly useful in trade-off analysis of attack and defense. The mod/sim approach has also been used to study trade-offs between security and performance. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has developed a framework for improving critical infrastructure cybersecurity. This framework clearly distinguishes among the functions for protecting the organizational missions, detecting an attack, responding to the attack, and recovering from it. The protection function bolsters the defensive posture of an organization by implementing cyber best practices. The effectiveness of the detect, respond, and recover functions, collectively called defensive operations, can be improved through cyber wargaming and exercises to reflect the organization’s priorities. The assets to be protected may be cyber-physical systems, Information Technology (IT) systems, or an integrated environment containing both. Cyber wargaming and exercises also model and simulate the attacks and attackers, the defenses and the defenders, and the static and dynamic aspects of the environment based on the fidelity requirements. Recent improvements in mod/sim techniques, especially in cyber range-based experimentation and testing and evaluation, have the potential to enable the next generation of cyber defense approaches to enterprise computing systems and cyber-physical systems. In this special issue, we present three papers focused on state-of-the-art mod/sim approaches for supporting the defense of cyber systems that underpin a nation-state’s critical infrastructure. Mod/sim methods provide paramount support for a wide range of cyber defensive applications, including security risk assessment, optimal cyber system defensive configuration, security versus performance versus cost trade-off analyses, and automated intrusion prevention, detection, remediation, and recovery, among others. Mod/ sim techniques draw on established modeling paradigms, such as System Dynamics, Discrete Event Simulation, and Agent-based Modeling. Mod/sim techniques also apply novel hybrid methods to empower decision makers to better understand the complex cyber and cyber-physical systems that they must protect. Mod/sim techniques also allow the exploration of alternative system defenses and threats to prepare for future attacks. Studies in this issue address cyber decision problems concerned with optimal strategies for cyber wargames, the assessment of cyber testing and evaluation environments, and security versus performance trade-off analysis for enterprise network restoration after and/or during a cyber attack. In ‘‘Game-theoretic model and experimental investigation of cyber wargaming,’’ Colbert et al. leverage game theory to model strategy decisions of opponents engaged in cyber combat. They consider scenarios in which resource-limited actors must make decisions on where to best focus their efforts such that they maximize their probability of victory. Formal mathematical models are developed and demonstrated via a cyber-physical wargame. Modern cyber environments are complex. Defending such an environment requires that the personnel defending it, also referred to as the Blue team, understand the environment in which they are operating. Roque et al. focus on testing and evaluation environments in ‘‘Assessing the cognitive complexity of cyber range environments.’’ Here, they explore the assessment of the cognitive workload of a Blue team member when defending a cyber environment. The goal is to develop the concepts and experimentation approaches needed to ensure the cognitive complexity of a cyber testing environment matches that of the real cyber environment being modeled. Finally, in ‘‘Models for restoration decision making for a supply chain network after a cyber attack,’’ Heath et al.
1 citations
TL;DR: This paper proposes an integrated multiresolution simulation system for designing, developing, simulating, and managing multiple simulation models with different modeling views and resolutions, and proposes an architecture, component functions, and processes, including model resolution conversion and management processes.
Abstract: Defense modeling and simulation often should run multiple simulation models together to share information on their combat entity states and battlefields and to interact with each other. However, mo...
1 citations
TL;DR: A high-fidelity virtual testbed modeling a networked diesel generator, similar to those used commercially and by the military, is described, which allows researchers to emulate a cyber-physical system and perform cyber attacks against the system without the monetary and safety risks associated with a testbed created from physical components.
Abstract: In this work, a high-fidelity virtual testbed modeling a networked diesel generator, similar to those used commercially and by the military, is described. This testbed consists of a physical system...
TL;DR: Using formal approaches from control and information theories, it is shown how failure to understand and recognize underlying structure and dynamics in organized conflict expresses itself as increased “noise,” eventually triggering strategic collapse.
Abstract: It has long been understood that the inevitably time-constrained cognitive processes of command on a Clausewitz landscape of uncertainty and imprecision are subject to gross instabilities Even ver