Showing papers in "The Journal of Politics in 1994"
TL;DR: This paper found that racial environment has a strong and consistent effect on racial-political attitudes, but little-to-no effect on measures of prejudice, and that this racial environment effect is pronounced among those most affected by black political progress (southern Democrats evaluating Jesse Jackson).
Abstract: In this study, I look at the relationship of black population and white racial attitudes in the contemporary South. Merging county-level census data with individual-level N.E.S. data from the 1980s to create a variable tapping "racial environment," I also use this study to test the validity of a group conflict theory of racial-political attitudes. I find that racial environment has a strong and consistent effect on racial-political attitudes, but little-to-no effect on measures of prejudice. Moreover, this racial environment effect is pronounced among those most affected by black political progress (southern Democrats evaluating Jesse Jackson). Contrary to a symbolic racism approach to the study of racial-political attitudes, these three findings support the contention that threat, in the form of group conflict, influences political positions on racial issues.
439 citations
TL;DR: This article explored the multidimensional aspect of religion and its impact on political action and found that religious beliefs and practices affect different modes of political action like voting and collective action, and how these effects differ between black and white Americans.
Abstract: Few studies have explored the multidimensional aspect of religion and its impact on political action. This is especially true of African Americans who have been stereotyped, at least in the social science literature, as having an otherworldly religious orientation that deflects attention away from worldly concerns, such as politics, to otherworldly rewards. Expanding the work of Kenneth Wald, this study posits a theory of religion and political action by considering religion as a resource for political mobilization. Using the 1987 General Social Survey (GSS), this article argues that religion among African Americans serves as both an organizational and psychological resource for individual and collective political action. It also demonstrates how individual religious beliefs and practices affect different modes of political action like voting and collective action, and how these effects differ between black and white Americans.
374 citations
TL;DR: This article found that men are a bit more active in politics than women and that women are disadvantaged when it comes to the resources that facilitate political activity, when these resource deficits are viewed in the context of the paths to participation taken by men and women.
Abstract: In this investigation of the voluntary participation of men and women, we find that even when the definition of activity is broadened beyond the electoral forms of activity usually considered, men are a bit more active in politics than women. However, the pattern across activities does not conform to the expectations generated by the literature. In comparison with men, women are disadvantaged when it comes to the resources that facilitate political activity. When these resource deficits are viewed in the context of the paths to participation taken by men and women, it turns out that if women were as well endowed with political resources as men, their overall levels of political activity would be closer to men's and their financial contributions would be considerably closer to men's.
347 citations
TL;DR: This article used experimental survey data collected from white and African-American respondents to identify what appears to be a strong influence of elite messages on mass political judgments, but only among black respondents.
Abstract: Recent research documents the widespread use of heuristics, especially a reliance on elite cues among citizens. Scholars have celebrated this mode of decision making as rational and effective. Using experimental survey data collected from white and African-American respondents, we also identify what appears to be a strong influence of elite messages on mass political judgments, but only among our black respondents. More importantly, the data reveal some of the perils of cue-taking. Although rational, this heuristic may not always be effective.
326 citations
TL;DR: The authors argue that not all legislators have the same incentives to utilize pork-barrel strategies to enhance their electoral margins and that the extent to which voters are influenced by the provision of distributive benefits is likely to depend on the attentiveness of voters to politics, their interest group affiliations, and their sources of political information.
Abstract: It is an enduring belief in American politics that legislators who "bring home the bacon" are rewarded for their efforts at the ballot box. Most researchers, however, have been unsuccessful in corroborating empirically a relationship between allocations to member districts and reelection margins. Previous research may have failed to detect a relationship due to misconceptualization, misspecified empirical tests, or both. We argue that not all legislators have the same incentives to utilize pork-barrel strategies to enhance their electoral margins. Furthermore the extent to which voters are influenced by the provision of distributive benefits is likely to depend on the attentiveness of voters to politics, their interest group affiliations, and their sources of political information. In short, both the predisposition to engage in pork-barrel strategies and their effects are likely to be conditional. Hypotheses derived from this respecification of the electoral connection thesis are tested with a data base t...
303 citations
TL;DR: A content analysis of newspaper coverage in 47 statewide campaigns between 1982 and 1988 shows that the press differentiate between male and female candidates in their campaign coverage as discussed by the authors, and women receive consistently less issue attention than their male counterparts.
Abstract: Voters see the political landscape largely through the eyes of the news media. In races for statewide office, where direct contact with politicians is rare, citizens receive most of their news about the campaign from state newspapers. Voters' dependence on the press for political information may be problematic for women running for office. A content analysis of newspaper coverage in 47 statewide campaigns between 1982 and 1988 shows that the press differentiate between male and female candidates in their campaign coverage. These differences are more dramatic in U.S. Senate races, but the differences are still evident in gubernatorial contests. In senatorial races, women receive less campaign coverage than their male counterparts and the coverage they receive is more negative--emphasizing their unlikely chances of victory. In both senatorial and gubernatorial races, women receive consistently less issue attention than their male counterparts. Furthermore, the news media seem more responsive to the messages...
278 citations
TL;DR: For example, the authors found that female judges were significantly more liberal than their male colleagues in employment discrimination cases and no differences were found between male and female judges in obscenity or criminal search and seizure cases.
Abstract: Prior scholarship on the effect of the increasing number of female judges leads to three contrasting sets of expectations. Early writings and views of affirmative-action activists suggested that female judges would be more liberal than male judges. On the other hand, a series of empirical studies suggest that we should expect no gender differences. In contrast to both of these perspectives, several feminist scholars suggest that women will be more liberal only when that position expresses support for full participation in the community. These contrasting expectations were tested by analyzing the votes of appeals court decisions in three issue areas. No differences were discovered between male and female judges in obscenity or criminal search and seizure cases. However, in employment discrimination cases, female judges were significantly more liberal than their male colleagues.
168 citations
TL;DR: This article found that variation in respondents' uncertainty leads to different models of perception of political figures and speaks to models of the survey response, which are interpretable, substantively interesting, and consistent with a model relating uncertainty to citizen information costs.
Abstract: While the world of politics is uncertain, previous work, both theoretical and empirical, has largely failed to incorporate this uncertainty into the analysis of public opinion and electoral behavior. In this article we discuss measures designed to elicit the uncertainty survey respondents feel about their political perceptions. These measures exhibit response patterns which are interpretable, substantively interesting, and consistent with a model relating uncertainty to citizen information costs. We also find that variation in respondent uncertainty leads to different models of perception of political figures and speaks to models of the survey response. As a practical matter, our measures can easily be incorporated into existing surveys with no disruption of continuity.
166 citations
TL;DR: The authors evaluated the influence of mass media on the direct impact of personal experiences on presidential performance as Ronald Reagan completed his second term in office, and on the indirect impact on personal experiences by means of their impact on collective-level issue judgments.
Abstract: This study considers competing theories concerning the role of mass media in hindering or facilitating the translation of personal experiences into political preferences. Using national survey and media content data that allow evaluations of both media coverage and individual patterns of media use, this study evaluates the influence of mass media on the direct impact of personal experiences on presidential performance as Ronald Reagan completed his second term in office, and on the indirect impact of personal experiences by means of their impact on collective-level issue judgments. Exposure to unemployment news appears to strengthen the impact of personal experiences on presidential performance ratings. Heavy unemployment coverage also increases the extent to which perceptions of national unemployment conditions are generalized from personal experience. Overall, results suggest that mass media may counter the tendency to morselize personal experiences and help legitimize the translation of private interes...
133 citations
TL;DR: Huckfeldt and Sprague as mentioned in this paper found that local campaigning by Labour party members had a significant influence on the Labour vote share in the 1987 general election, but not on turnout.
Abstract: Research on the effects of local election campaigning by party activists on electoral behavior has been confined almost entirely to the United States, where most findings suggest that there are significant effects. This note discusses reasons why such effects are also likely to exist, and may even be stronger, in Britain than in the United States. It then goes on to estimate models of the turnout and vote share for the Labour party in the 1987 general election in Britain. The results show that local campaigning by Labour party members had a significant influence on the Labour vote share in the 1987 election, but not on turnout. A model is developed using data from a national survey of Labour party members, together with a number of control variables to test relationships. The findings are similar to those by Huckfeldt and Sprague for gubernatorial and Senate elections in the United States.
105 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimate the impact of challenger experience in various elected offices on vote for the incumbent and demonstrate that potential senatorial challengers strategically take into account both local and national political and economic conditions when making their candidacy decisions.
Abstract: Analyzing senatorial elections between 1952 and 1990, I estimate the impact of challenger experience in various elected offices on vote for the incumbent. Controlling for other factors, U.S. representatives gain a higher proportion of the vote than other elected officials. Consistent with Jacobson's (1990b) theory that the increase in the importance of challenger quality over time in House elections explains the decline in the proportion of marginal House seats, the importance of challenger quality and the proportion of marginal seats remained stable over time in Senate elections. After developing a challenger quality scale based upon the estimated impact of having held different elected offices, I demonstrate that potential senatorial challengers strategically take into account both local and national political and economic conditions when making their candidacy decisions.
TL;DR: This paper examined a unique data set on the detailed expenditures of House candidates in 1990 and found that the mismeasure of campaign spending seriously affects the magnitude of conventional estimates of the effects of money on votes but does not account for the peculiar result that incumbent money matters less than challenger money.
Abstract: Research on the effects of campaign spending on elections has used total campaign expenditures to measure the amount of money actually spent on campaigns. This article examines a unique data set on the detailed expenditures of House candidates in 1990. We find that the mismeasure of campaign spending seriously affects the magnitude of conventional estimates of the effects of money on votes but does not account for the peculiar result that incumbent money matters less than challenger money. In fact, when correctly measured incumbent expenditures have a significant negative coefficient, evidence that standard estimates suffer from still greater problems of statistical specification.
TL;DR: In this paper, an analysis of disaggregated Federal Election Commission fundraising data for 1985-1986 House candidates illustrates the tremendous financial advantage incumbents enjoy over challengers in every single period of the election cycle, particularly in the decisive time just before the election.
Abstract: Examination of disaggregated Federal Election Commission fundraising data for 1985-1986 House candidates illustrates the tremendous financial advantage incumbents enjoy over challengers. Incumbents raise more money than challengers in every single period of the election cycle, particularly in the decisive time just before the election. Incumbents are also able to react quickly to well-financed opposition. Challengers, on the other hand, must raise money early to experience fundraising success later on, and they are unable to respond to incumbent fundraising by raising more money themselves. Our intraelection analysis, in sum, confirms many of the inferences other researchers have drawn from cross-sectional data.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors introduce a testing method that avoids the problem of presumed normality of the data, presumed cardinal meaning of data, and the use of a mean score of committee preference when the corresponding theory only contains implications for the median score.
Abstract: Tests of theories of the composition of congressional committees are often problematic. Among the problems are presumed normality of the data, presumed cardinal meaning of the data, and the use of a mean score of committee preference when the corresponding theory only contains implications for the median score. This essay introduces a testing method that avoids these problems. It tests five hypotheses: (1) committees are preference outliers, (2) Democrats stack their slots on committees with liberal outliers, (3) Republicans stack their slots with conservative outliers, (4) committees are representative of the whole House, and (5) Democratic contingents on committees are representative of the whole Democratic caucus. Strong support, however, cannot be found for any of the hypotheses. The preference outlier hypothesis receives the most support, but even here the evidence is mixed.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors extend the theory of sophisticated voting to cover situations in which legislators lack complete information about both the agenda and about their colleagues' preferences, and make possible a further empirical and theoretical exploration of the links between voting strategy and other aspects of legislative strategy, including agenda control, persuasion and delay.
Abstract: This paper extends the theory of sophisticated voting to cover situations in which legislators lack complete information about both the agenda and about their colleagues' preferences. The voting on a 1986 U.S. Senate resolution to provide full-time television coverage of Senate proceedings serves as an illustration of the theory, as well as adding to the stock of sophisticated voting cases found in the literature. Our approach makes possible a further empirical and theoretical exploration of the links between voting strategy and other aspects of legislative strategy, including agenda control, persuasion, and delay. In contrast with misgivings found in the recent literature, these connections clarify the relevance of sophisticated voting and strategic agenda manipulation for the empirical analysis of legislative politics.
TL;DR: The authors investigate the degree to which exposure to the mass media results in an increased likelihood to vote for the incumbent (or the winner in open-seat races) and present experimental evidence demonstrating the influence of electoral expectations in individual-level voting decisions.
Abstract: We investigate the degree to which exposure to the mass media results in an increased likelihood to vote for the incumbent (or the winner in open-seat races). We also present experimental evidence demonstrating the influence of electoral expectations in individual--level voting decisions.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a model for successful dual transitions derived from an analysis of the Spanish experience of 1977-1986, and argue that the successful implementation of structural adjustment programs depends on two factors: a reform sequence that delays deepened structural adjustment until after the consolidation of democracy seems assured, and a strong ruling party.
Abstract: This article presents a model for successful dual transitions derived from an analysis of the Spanish experience of 1977-1986. I argue that the successful implementation of structural adjustment programs depends on two factors: one, a reform sequence that delays deepened structural adjustment until after the consolidation of democracy seems assured, and two, a strong ruling party. In the Spanish case and in other successful dual transitions discussed here, the party that won the first democratic elections concentrated on consolidating democracy while the party that won the second national elections concentrated on economic reforms.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compare the behavior of U.S. representatives who have chosen to run for reelection with those who have decided not to do so, and find that those who are not running for reelection are more likely to have a successful and tightly focused legislative agenda.
Abstract: While elections are essential to a democracy, it is commonly believed that the desire to secure reelection causes legislators to engage in many undesirable activities. In this note, by comparing the behavior of U.S. representatives who have chosen to run for reelection with those representatives who have decided not to do so, we provide evidence of the precise activities induced by electoral concerns. We find that elections cause members to go back to the district more often, to employ more staff assistants, to attend to roll-call voting more fastidiously, and to be more legislatively active. While these activities are no doubt consistent with the wishes of most constituents, the desire for reelection also encourage members to introduce what is apparently frivolous legislation on topics of little familiarity to the member. Those members who are not running for reelection, on the other hand, are more likely to have a successful and tightly focused legislative agenda.
TL;DR: In this paper, a pooled time-series design is used to examine the interplay of national and subnational influences on the oversight decisions of officials at the U.S. Office of Surface Mining (OSM, Department of the Interior).
Abstract: We outline and test an empirical model of federal regulatory behavior that reflects the spatial (i.e., interstate) and temporal dimensions of regulation within a federal system. A pooled time-series design is used to examine the interplay of national and subnational influences on the oversight decisions of officials at the U.S. Office of Surface Mining (OSM, Department of the Interior) during the period 1985-1989. The analysis indicates that the regulatory decisions of federal authorities at OSM reflect shifts in the nation's political climate, the freelancing efforts of individual members of Congress, and the states' political climates. Taken together, the findings suggest that national policymakers are able to direct the oversight activities of bureaucratic subordinates but are constrained in that regard by "bottom up" influences.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate a dynamic model of attitude change that includes direct information on individuals named as political discussants and find that intimacy and respect are more important determinants of social influence than previously given credit.
Abstract: Studies of social influence have suffered from limitations in available data resources. Consequently, they usually have either failed to consider the dynamic nature of attitudes or have specified the social environment in some restricted way. This article evaluates a dynamic model of attitude change that includes direct information on individuals named as political discussants. Using party identification as an attitude subject to social influence, several findings are advanced. Political discussants are shown to significantly affect change in party identification. In addition, these effects are enhanced or inhibited depending on characteristics of the discussion partners, the nature of the relationship, and properties of the interaction. The nature of the relationship interacts with the other components in some interesting and surprising ways as well. Overall, the results show that intimacy and respect are more important deter-minants of social influence than previously given credit.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the experiences of a leading member of the international system over a sustained period, specifically, the United States in the post-World War II era.
Abstract: What causes a state to become involved in an international crisis? In an attempt to answer that question, the present investigation focuses on the experiences of a leading member of the international system over a sustained period, specifically, the United States in the post-World War II era. Following a review of previous research, internal factors with potential relevance to involvement in crises are identified. External influences on foreign policy, consistent with the tradition of political realism, also are specified. These elements are combined in a model of crisis activity. Using data pertaining both to the United States as a polity and an actor in the international system, propositions derived from the model are tested in the crisis domain. The results are encouraging; crisis activity is explained by a combination of internal and external factors. Significant internal influences, with potential cross-national relevance, include explicit forms of behavior by the public, perceptions of international...
TL;DR: A general hypothesis details the patterns of crisscrossing and overlapping lines of division and cohesion as they relate to voting decisions: as individuals vary in their membership in mutually reinforcing social and political networks, they vary in the likelihood of persistently voting for the same political party and never voting for other parties.
Abstract: The question of how social and political networks influence political behavior stands at the theoretical heart of this article. A general hypothesis details the patterns of crisscrossing and overlapping lines of division and cohesion as they relate to voting decisions: As individuals vary in their membership in mutually reinforcing social and political networks, they vary in the likelihood of persistently voting for the same political party and never voting for other parties. Analyses of panel data on British (1964-1966; 1966-1970; 1964-1966-1970; 1970-1974) and American voters (1956-1960) found supporting evidence for a series of hypotheses and empirical generalizations derived from the general proposition.
TL;DR: The authors argue that concerns for stability, legitimacy, and development in non-industrialized systems lead to biases for those within society who have less resources, and that courts in Third World nations can use their policy-making function to redistribute resources, at least within some components of their docket.
Abstract: Comparative analysis of litigation outcomes has been restricted to advanced industrialized democracies. I extend the analysis to a developing country--the Philippines. The models of litigation outcomes for the United States and Great Britain suggest that courts favor the claims advanced by those with greater resources. Although income disparity is generally greater in developing nations, decisions of the Philippine Supreme Court suggest the opposite outcome--those with the least resources fare better. I argue that concerns for stability, legitimacy, and development in nonindustrialized systems lead to biases for those within society who have less. Courts in Third World nations can use their policy-making function to redistribute resources, at least within some components of their docket.
TL;DR: This paper found that abortion was a significant predictor of vote choice in all but one of the 10 states in the 1990 exit poll data set, and that abortion position had a greater impact on vote choice than state economic conditions in eight of the ten states in their analysis.
Abstract: Nearly all studies of gubernatorial voting focus on the role of state economic conditions and incumbency on vote choice. Yet gubernatorial campaigns frequently focus on social issues such as abortion, the death penalty, and gun control. Using data from 1989 and 1990 exit polls in 10 states, we find that abortion was a significant predictor of vote choice in all but one. Our logistic regression analysis suggests that abortion position had a greater impact on vote choice than state economic conditions in eight of the 10 states in our analysis, and that abortion was a stronger predictor than even partisanship in Pennsylvania. This suggests the need to consider noneconomic issues in gubernatorial voting studies.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used data gathered in a particular congressional district (both data on actual member-constituent contacts and survey data) to discern more explicitly whether ombudsman service and relative issue proximity to the incumbent affects constituent vote choice.
Abstract: Democratic theory suggests that representation should be associated with both service and policy responsiveness. There is, however, serious question about whether either kind of responsiveness plays any significant role in the outcomes of congressional elections and about whether greater service responsiveness eliminates the need for policy responsiveness. Part of the problem with resolving these questions has been with the kind of data available, since individual-level data on congressional districts are hard to find (compared to data for presidential contests) and are unlikely to combine measures of both kinds of responsiveness. This study utilizes data gathered in a particular congressional district (both data on actual member-constituent contacts and survey data) to discern more explicitly whether ombudsman service and relative issue proximity to the incumbent affects constituent vote choice. The findings support the position that both service and policy responsiveness matter in congressional elections.
TL;DR: The authors focused on the aggregate effects of the House Banking Scandal on the 1992 elections for the U.S. House of Representatives and concluded that the scandal had only a nominal effect on those who wrote bad checks.
Abstract: This research focuses on the aggregate effects of the House Banking Scandal on the 1992 elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. While many commentators felt the scandal would transform the House of Representatives through massive displacement of members, we argue that the literature on scandals in Congress should have made us more cautious in our prognostications. We focus on three different stages of reelection for incumbents and conclude that the House Banking Scandal had only a nominal effect on those who wrote bad checks.
TL;DR: For example, the authors assesses the effect that the president's revealed priority ranking of an issue had on a legislator's roll-call decision during the first year of the Carter and Reagan presidencies.
Abstract: This article assesses the effect that the president's revealed priority ranking of an issue had on a legislator's roll-call decision during the first year of the Carter and Reagan presidencies. Controlling for other factors believed to be important in legislators' voting decisions, presidential issue advertisement did have a statistically noticeable effect. That effect varied across the presidents and type of legislator. The most consistent positive effect was among legislators predisposed to support the president from the outset, but core opponents were not positively moved. The more often President Carter mentioned an issue the less likely legislators outside his core support group were to support his position. President Reagan's mention of issues had a positive effect on cross-pressured legislators of both parties. These results have implications for presidential leadership in the legislative arena.
TL;DR: This paper argued that electoral systems shape not only the incentives of vote choice, but also have an impact on the deeper psychology of attachment to political parties, and they presented evidence from three countries (Australia, Canada, and Germany) consistent with their argument.
Abstract: This article brings together the literatures on individual voting behavior and on the effect of electoral systems. While most students of tactical voting stress the link between voter choice and electoral systems, we argue that electoral systems shape not just the incentives of vote choice, but also have an impact on the deeper psychology of attachment to political parties. We argue that party identification is shaped not just by personal factors but also, and perhaps more importantly, by party and electoral systems. We present evidence from three countries--Australia, Canada, and Germany--consistent with our argument.
TL;DR: The authors investigated the advertising and news environment during the 1992 California U.S. Senate campaigns and found that the impact of ads varies considerably with several elements of the political context: the stage and competitiveness of the campaign, strategic interactions among the candidates, and coverage by the news media.
Abstract: This research investigates the advertising and news environment during the 1992 California U.S. Senate campaigns. I examine how people used campaign media--ads and news--in evaluating candidates. Content analysis explores the messages in television ads and news coverage. How citizens assess candidate's recognition, favorability, electability, and the vote is addressed through local public opinion surveys in the nominating and general election stages. The results reveal that the impact of ads varies considerably with several elements of the political context: the stage and competitiveness of the campaign, strategic interactions among the candidates, and coverage by the news media. One cannot fully understand ads unless the context of electoral judgments is included in the analysis.
TL;DR: This paper investigated the relationship between state regulation and religious participation among the minority Muslim segments of predominantly Christian religious markets in 18 advanced industrial countries and found the predicted effect: once social class is controlled, there is a powerful negative relationship between government regulation and the religious participation of Muslims.
Abstract: Church-state relations have captured the attention of prominent thinkers throughout history. Drawing upon the intellectual heritages of Adam Smith and Alexis de Toqueville, a "supply-side" explanation of religious participation predicts that religion will be more vibrant where it is less regulated by the state. Studies of Christian "segments" of religious markets have lent considerable empirical support to this hypothesis. This research note extends earlier research by investigating the relationship between state regulation and religious participation among the minority Muslim segments of predominantly Christian religious markets in 18 advanced industrial countries. Operationalizing Muslim religious participation by the rate at which Muslims make the "hajj" (pilgrimage) to Mecca, we find the predicted effect: Once social class is controlled, there is a powerful negative relationship between state regulation and the religious participation of Muslims. Even among Muslims in predominantly Christian societies...