Showing papers in "The Journal of Politics in 2004"
TL;DR: Mackenzie and Hafken as discussed by the authors argue that public employees were more prone to corruption or less committed to the public interest and make policy before tangible problems are unambiguously demonstrated by agreed upon evidence and before they are widely acknowledged by the public.
Abstract: erative response to evidence that public employees were more prone to corruption or less committed to the public interest. Instead, such changes constituted a “peculiar form of policymaking: announcing solutions before experiencing or studying the problems—and before understanding the consequences” (52). This goes only a little way towards assessing levels of public integrity and readers will want to consult the literature in public policy on the role of symbolic appeals in agenda setting, the political nature of problem definition and policy evaluation, and the institutional dynamics of policy change. Making policy before tangible problems are unambiguously demonstrated by agreed upon evidence and before they are widely acknowledged by the public may be peculiar, but it is certainly not unique to anticorruption and ethics policy. Of course, the authors do not have to demonstrate convincingly the integrity of public employees (for which there is other evidence worth taking seriously) in order to provide a solid description of the modern ethics regime and to call attention to some of its more important and troubling consequences. The strengths of the book, however, are different from those promised by the title. Many of their specific remedies for the problems they identify seem reasonable, even if they are unlikely. They propose, for example, campaign finance reform to cure “the real ethics sewer in the federal government” (170). Others, like curtailing the use of FBI background checks, are especially important in light of the authors’ revealing and valuable account of the way such checks put a great deal of uncorroborated and irrelevant information into the hands of partisan combatants. Other recommendations, such as the elimination of financial disclosure requirements for career employees and confidential disclosure for all but a handful of appointees, will no doubt help the authors meet their goal of provoking very spirited debate. Finally, while Mackenzie and Hafken are right to despair of the costly and often counterproductive reliance on formal and criminal investigations and the culture of mistrust that pervades our politics, it is important to note that curtailing such activity will not automatically result in the rejuvenation of political accountability that the authors seek. It is not at all clear that the public or political leaders have the information or the interest in holding those who violate the public trust accountable. Placing more faith in Presidents to fire employees who engage in wrongdoing and in the public to “exercise their vote as a swift sword of accountability” (175) seems, unfortunately, to be a risky proposition.
1,024 citations
482 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on a set of nine domains in the United States and find that representation varies across domains, and the pattern is symmetrical to the pattern of public responsiveness to budgetary policy itself.
Abstract: Much research shows that politicians represent public preferences in public policy. Although we know that there is representation, we do not understand the nature of the relationship in different policy areas. We do not know whether and to what extent representation varies across domains. Even where we find representation, we do not know what policy makers actually represent. This article explicitly addresses these issues, focusing on a set of nine spending domains in the United States. At the heart of the article is a simple conjecture: representation varies across domains, and the pattern is symmetrical to the pattern of public responsiveness to budgetary policy itself. Analysis of the relationships between opinion and policy over time in the different spending domains supports the conjecture. The patterns fit quite nicely with what we know about the influence of different issues on voting behavior in American national elections. Based on this analysis, then, it appears that politicians’ responsiveness to public preferences reflects the public importance of different policy domains.
335 citations
TL;DR: For instance, the authors showed that approximately 50% of the gender gap is illusory, reflecting response patterns that work to the collective advantage of male respondents, and that men are disproportionately more likely to guess than women.
Abstract: A considerable body of data suggests that men know more about politics than do women. Although gender gaps exist in other aspects of political behavior, the unusual magnitude of the gender gap makes it particularly perplexing. In this paper, we advance and test the hypothesis that the knowledge gap is partly an artifact of how knowledge is measured. If men are disproportionately more likely to guess than are women, then observed gender disparities in knowledge will be artificially inflated. To test this hypothesis, we reexamine data used in two recent inquiries concerning the gender gap in knowledge, along with experimental data from the 1998 NES Pilot Study. All analyses point to a common conclusion: approximately 50% of the gender gap is illusory, reflecting response patterns that work to the collective advantage of male respondents.
320 citations
TL;DR: This article examined minority empowerment theory from a cross-national perspective, making use of surveys that sampled minorities in the United States and New Zealand and found that in both countries descriptive representation matters: it increases knowledge about and contact with representatives in the U.S. and leads to more positive evaluations of governmental responsiveness and increased electoral participation in New Zealand.
Abstract: According to the minority empowerment thesis, minority representation strengthens representational links, fosters more positive attitudes toward government, and encourages political participation. We examine this theory from a cross-national perspective, making use of surveys that sampled minorities in the United States and New Zealand. Both countries incorporate structures into their electoral systems that make it possible for minority groups to elect representatives of their choice. We find that in both countries descriptive representation matters: it increases knowledge about and contact with representatives in the U.S. and leads to more positive evaluations of governmental responsiveness and increased electoral participation in New Zealand. These findings have broad implications for debates about minority representation.
320 citations
TL;DR: This paper used Maddala's estimator, which is designed for a two-equation system in which one endogenous variable is continuous and the other is dichotomous, to condition the estimates on recent histories of dyadic trade and conflict.
Abstract: While many scholars have posited a simultaneous relationship between trade and conflict, very few empirical studies have specified the relationship as such. Those that did employed samples that were relatively limited in spatial-temporal coverage. None have employed conflict indicators based on Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) data due to the difficulty of including discrete dependent variables in a simultaneous equation framework. We overcome both limitations in this study and offer results with important theoretical implications. In line with the most recent published studies, we design our model to “condition” the estimates on recent histories of dyadic trade and conflict. We apply Maddala's estimator, which is designed for a two-equation system in which one endogenous variable is continuous and the other is dichotomous. While the signs of all control variable coefficients match those reported in mainstream trade-conflict literature, our main result does not. We find what we call the “primacy of po...
258 citations
TL;DR: This paper found that voters were drawn to reports on the horserace and strategy during the 2000 election and found that strategy reports proved especially popular among readers with higher levels of political engagement.
Abstract: Reports on the state of the horserace and analysis of the candidates' strategies are pervasive themes in news coverage of campaigns. Various explanations have been suggested for the dominance of strategy-oriented news over hard news. The most frequently identified factors are the length of the modern campaign, the built-in conflict between journalists and campaign operatives, and the pressures of the marketplace. This article provides a test of the market hypothesis. Given access to a wide variety of news reports about the presidential campaign during the weeks immediately preceding the 2000 election, we find that voters were drawn to reports on the horserace and strategy. Strategy reports proved especially popular among readers with higher levels of political engagement. In closing, we consider what journalists might do to make stories about the issues more relevant and marketable.
252 citations
TL;DR: The authors employ an alternative estimate of the justices' liberalism, one which they think better reflects the underlying ideological tenor of their policies, and compare time-series models using different indicators of the Supreme Court's aggregate liberalism.
Abstract: With competing assumptions and alternative empirical models, scholars have come to rather different conclusions about the impact of public preferences on the decisions of the U.S. Supreme Court. Some have found the justices to be attentive to mass opinion, while others have judged it to be irrelevant. Across this divide, however, one assumption is widely shared; that is, political scientists generally agree upon how best to measure the Court's outputs. In this analysis, we employ an alternative estimate of the justices’ liberalism, one which we think better reflects the underlying ideological tenor of their policies. With data from 1953 to 1996, we compare time-series models using different indicators of the Supreme Court's aggregate liberalism. Our results suggest that, in addition to being motivated by their own preferences, the justices are highly responsive to public mood, as well.
231 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use an original data set of bill initiation activity in six presidential democracies to advance scholarly understanding of how the institutional incentives faced by legislative candidates influence representation, finding that the focus of individual legislators on national versus parochial concerns responds to the incentives provided by the candidate selection process, general election rules, legislator career patterns, and interbranch relations.
Abstract: Through the use of an original data set of bill initiation activity in six presidential democracies, we advance scholarly understanding of how the institutional incentives faced by legislative candidates influence representation. We extend and adapt theory, derived primarily from the experience of the U.S. Congress, demonstrating its viability, once assumed constants from the U.S. case are explicitly modeled, in quite distinct institutional contexts. In particular, we find the focus of individual legislators on national versus parochial concerns responds to the incentives provided by the candidate selection process, general election rules, legislator career patterns, and interbranch relations.
228 citations
TL;DR: The authors found that Nixon engaged in both issue and image priming during the 1972 presidential election, using internal campaign memoranda, Nixon's private public opinion polls, and a comprehensive content analysis of Nixon's public statements.
Abstract: A burgeoning literature shows that campaigns exert substantial influence on voters by priming selected policy issues. We extend this research by offering a framework that (1) incorporates a model of campaign image priming and (2) describes the political conditions that shape campaign priming strategies. We test our framework in the context of Richard Nixon's 1972 presidential campaign. Using internal campaign memoranda, Nixon's private public opinion polls, and a comprehensive content analysis of Nixon's public statements, we find that Nixon engaged in both issue and image priming. Specifically, White House polling reports of strong public support for particular domestic policy positions prompted Nixon subsequently to prime those issues and positions. Moreover, poll reports of negative evaluations of his personality traits led Nixon to emphasize foreign policy issues so as to convey an impression of his competence and strength. We conclude that candidates tailor issue and image priming strategies to the p...
189 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the welfare-reducing logic of interstate competition should apply to all redistributive programs, however, the authors test for competitive effects more generally, examining several measures of welfare generosity for AFDC, Medicaid, and Supplemental Security Income-State (SSI-S) policy.
Abstract: Does interstate competition reduce welfare generosity? Most analyses of this question focus on Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) benefit levels. The welfare-reducing logic of interstate competition should apply to all redistributive programs, however. We test for competitive effects more generally, examining several measures of welfare generosity for AFDC, Medicaid, and Supplemental Security Income-State (SSI-S) policy. We find evidence of interstate competition across multiple programs and measures over which states have authority. We also find variation in the effects that is consistent with variation in political debates across the programs.
TL;DR: The authors analyzed over 40,000 dyadic relationships among lobbyists, government agencies, and congressional staff using sociometric data gathered in the 1970s health and energy policy domains and found that the decision of any lobbyist to inform another lobbyist is heavily conditioned upon their mutual relationships to third parties.
Abstract: Why and how do groups share information in politics? Most studies of information exchange in politics focus on individual-level attributes and implicitly assume that communication between any two policy actors is independent of the larger communication network in which they are embedded. We develop a theory stating that the decision of any lobbyist to inform another lobbyist is heavily conditioned upon their mutual relationships to third parties. We analyze over 40,000 dyadic relationships among lobbyists, government agencies, and congressional staff using sociometric data gathered in the 1970s health and energy policy domains. The results cohere with recent findings that lobbyists disproportionately inform those with similar preferences and show in addition that political communication is transitive: holding constant the degree of preference similarity, a lobbyist is more likely to communicate with another lobbyist if their relationship is brokered by a third party.
TL;DR: This paper examined the key political explanations of prison populations and the unit of analysis and data limitation obstacles that make it difficult to conduct a comprehensive empirical analysis of these frameworks and concluded that the growth in prison populations has little to do with changes in crime rates or government response to citizen attitudes.
Abstract: Why have incarceration rates dramatically increased even as crime rates have remained stable or even declined? This is a question of considerable policy and theoretical relevance that currently has no satisfactory answer. I attempt to address this question by examining the key political explanations of prison populations and the unit of analysis and data limitation obstacles that make it difficult to conduct a comprehensive empirical analysis of these frameworks. I address these issues and undertake such an analysis using a pooled state-level analysis covering the years 1980–1995. Results suggest that the growth in prison populations has little to do with changes in crime rates or government response to citizen attitudes. Instead it is the most basic elements of the political environment (partisanship and elections) and the continuing legacy of racial social cleavages that explain why incarceration rates have increased.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a political transaction cost theory of the politics of administrative design and evaluated the theory using data on the initial design attributes of 141 federal administrative agencies created legislatively between 1879 and 1988.
Abstract: We propose a political transaction cost theory of the politics of administrative design and then evaluate the theory using data on the initial design attributes of 141 federal administrative agencies created legislatively between 1879 and 1988. The theory posits that the enacting coalition attempts to strategically manipulate administrative design attributes and therefore political transaction costs for future coalitions seeking to affect agency policy. Based on perceptions of the probability of political holdup and resulting losses, the enacting coalition alters political transaction costs to optimize expected benefits. We gauge the perceived probability of political holdup using measures of executive-legislative conflict, coalitional conflict, electoral turnover, and party hegemony. Using structural probit analysis, the results show that these factors significantly affect agency design attributes involving structure, process, and monitoring. Thus, the statistical analysis is consistent with the theory t...
TL;DR: The United States finds itself increasingly isolated in multilateral organizations as discussed by the authors, and to infer what this trend signifies, we need to disentangle changes in the agenda from changes in revealed preferences.
Abstract: The United States finds itself increasingly isolated in multilateral organizations. To infer what this trend signifies, we need to disentangle changes in the agenda from changes in revealed preferences. This paper does so with a novel data set, important votes in the United Nations according to the State Department, and method, a multilevel item-response model estimated by MCMC methods. The results show that the agenda becomes more negative for the United States after 1996, whereas the almost universal widening of the preference gap occurs at a constant rate between 1991 and 2001. In addition, there is no evidence for an increasing clash of civilizations and some evidence that the gap with states that become more liberal has increased less.
Abstract: A realistic theory of economic sanctions should be built on the facts that sanctions are a game of issue linkage involving two or more issues, players may not know each other's preferences for the outcome of the game, and threatening sanctions may be as important as imposing sanctions as a strategy in international disputes. The threat and use of economic sanctions are modeled as a multistage game of two-sided incomplete information between a target and a coercer. The threat stage is critically important for understanding the outcome of sanctions, and current empirical studies suffer from a case selection bias. Economic sanctions are likely to be imposed when they are not likely to succeed in changing the target's behavior. Sanctions that are likely to succeed will do so at the mere threat of sanctions. Despite the unlikely success of sanctions, coercers must sometimes impose sanctions, even after the threat of sanctions has failed to change the target's behavior.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present evidence of name-order effects in balloting from a study of the 1998 Democratic primary in New York City, in which the order of candidates' names was rotated by precinct.
Abstract: This article presents evidence of name-order effects in balloting from a study of the 1998 Democratic primary in New York City, in which the order of candidates' names was rotated by precinct. In 71 of 79 individual nominating contests, candidates received a greater proportion of the vote when listed first than when listed in any other position. In seven of those 71 contests the advantage to first position exceeded the winner's margin of victory, suggesting that ballot position would have determined the election outcomes if one candidate had held the top spot in all precincts.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined cross-national divergence in adoption rates of ISO 14001, an important international nongovernmental environmental regime developed with the cooperation of multinational firms.
Abstract: Recent globalization discussions have revived the issue of regulatory convergence Convergence advocates point to the structural pressures of the global economy on countries, while the divergence school points to the embeddedness of domestic regulatory institutions This paper examines cross-national divergence in adoption rates of ISO 14001, an important international nongovernmental environmental regime developed with the cooperation of multinational firms ISO 14001 offers a process-based system of voluntary regulation instead of an outcome-based system of public regulation that many firms find cumbersome Our analysis of data from 59 countries suggests that ISO 14001 adoption rates are likely to be higher in countries whose trading partners have adopted this nongovernmental regime, which are embedded in international networks of nongovernmental organizations, whose governments flexibly enforce stringent environmental regulations with a less adversarial and litigious stance towards firms, and where con
TL;DR: In this article, the authors take advantage of a unique quasi-experiment provided by Costa Rica, which over the past ten years employed three distinct forms of national quota legislation, and find that the quota legislation must require political parties to place a minimum percentage of women on their lists, as well as mandate these placements be in electable positions.
Abstract: National quota legislation is theoretically unrivaled in its ability to substantially increase the number of women legislators elected. However, not all legislation is equally effective in achieving this goal. In order to improve scholarly understanding of the effect of quota legislation on the election of women, this study takes advantage of a unique quasi-experiment provided by Costa Rica, which over the past ten years employed three distinct forms of quota legislation. Evidence from Costa Rica suggests that to achieve optimal effectiveness, quota legislation must require political parties to place a minimum percentage of women on their lists, as well as mandate these placements be in electable positions.
TL;DR: This paper found no evidence that exposure to negative advertisements decreases voter turnout, and little evidence that negative advertising increases voter turnout in the long-term, and found that the information contained in the treatment groups' advertisements is sufficient to systematically alter voter turnout.
Abstract: Scholars disagree whether negative advertising demobilizes or stimulates the electorate. We use an experiment with over 10,200 eligible voters to evaluate the two leading hypotheses of negative political advertising. We extend the analysis to examine whether advertising differentially impacts the turnout of voter subpopulations depending on the advertisement's message. In the short term, we find no evidence that exposure to negative advertisements decreases turnout and little that suggests it increases turnout. Any effect appears to depend upon the message of the advertisement and the characteristics of the viewer. In the long term, we find little evidence that the information contained in the treatment groups' advertisements is sufficient to systematically alter turnout.
TL;DR: The authors reviewed the developments in social psychology and political science and made suggestions for how scholars should use and operationalize these concepts, and pointed out that these differences are important empirically and theoretically.
Abstract: Attitude strength is defined as the extent to which an attitude is stable, resistant to change, impacts information processing, and guides behavior. Several concepts, such as accessibility, ambivalence, and importance relate to the broader concept of strength. For many years, both social psychology and political science ignored the differences across these various concepts, though in different ways. Social psychologists treated them as interchangeable, as indicators of the same latent concept. Political scientists treated them in isolation, focusing on one type of strength and ignoring the other, possibly relevant types. Recent research in both fields, however, challenges these approaches. Indicators of attitude strength are distinct concepts, and these differences are important empirically and theoretically. In this essay, we review the developments in both disciplines and make suggestions for how scholars should use and operationalize these concepts.
TL;DR: The authors examined the role of public statements made by presidents during confirmation battles and found strong support for the hypothesis that presidents strategically “go public.” Further, this strategy has a marked influence on presidents' ability to win confirmation for their most important nominees.
Abstract: The Supreme Court nomination and confirmation process has become one of the most contentious aspects of American politics in recent years, representing a seismic struggle between the president and the U.S. Senate over the ideological makeup of the nation's highest court. Existing research focuses on how the ideological compatibility of the president and the Senate affects the ideology of the president's nominees. However, little work addresses whether presidents can overcome an ideologically hostile Senate by spending political capital to support a nominee. As such, we examine the president's public expenditure of capital to obtain confirmation for Supreme Court nominees facing a Senate that is reticent to confirm. By content analyzing public statements made by presidents during confirmation battles we find strong support for the hypothesis that presidents strategically “go public.” Further, this strategy has a marked influence on presidents’ ability to win confirmation for their most important nominees.“...
TL;DR: The authors examined how political persuaders can shape public opinion through the framing of policy choices and found that the framing affected not only opinions on the issues, but also the participants' judgments of the relative importance of competing policy goals.
Abstract: Political communicators can frame the debate over controversial public issues by emphasizing which policy goals deserve highest priority. This research examines how such rhetoric affects political attitudes by influencing the importance individuals attribute to competing values. I examine three specific rhetorical strategies: goal ranking, issue categorization, and institutional role assignment. Support for this approach comes from experimental studies in laboratory and survey settings. Frames affected not only opinions on the issues, but also the participants’ judgments of the relative importance of competing policy goals. These findings should deepen our understanding of how political persuaders can shape public opinion through the framing of policy choices.
TL;DR: In this article, the determinants and consequences of Latino political representation in the field of K-12 education were investigated, and the regression results showed that Latino population positively affects Latino board representation, but that at-large systems hinder descriptive representation.
Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants and consequences of Latino political representation in the field of K-12 education. The first task is to examine the association between Latino population and the Latino presence on school boards. We then investigate if Latino representation is affected by the electoral structure of school boards, as scholars have reached differing conclusions on whether at-large and ward systems hinder or enhance minority descriptive representation. The next step examines the consequences of Latino representation, specifically whether board membership is associated with the share of Latino school administrators and teachers. The regression results show that Latino population positively affects Latino board representation, but that at-large systems hinder descriptive representation. The primary determinant of Latino administrators is Latino school board membership, and the primary determinant of Latino teachers is Latino administrators. In sum, at-large elections negatively influence Latino educational representation, which produces a ripple effect that ultimately reduces the share of Latino teachers.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors model electoral system change as driven by partisan self-interest in maximizing seat share and test it in five episodes of electoral system changes in Poland from 1989 to 2001, comparing parties' support for electoral law alternatives to their expectations of seat shares from those alternatives.
Abstract: Electoral systems are uniquely distributive political institutions that shape political outcomes, yet are themselves endogenously shaped outcomes of political choices. In Poland, party system development has involved not only parties adapting to electoral institutions in each election, but also parties modifying these institutions prior to every election. We model electoral system change as driven by partisan self-interest in maximizing seat share and test it in five episodes of electoral system change in Poland from 1989 to 2001, comparing parties’ support for electoral law alternatives to their expectations of seat shares from those alternatives. Data consists of opinion polls, roll-call votes, Sejm records, constitutional committee transcripts, and interviews with political actors who designed and chose the Polish electoral institutions. The findings clearly show that party support for each electoral law was closely linked to the perceived effect on that party's seat share, with this linkage growing more consistent over time.
TL;DR: This article found that many minorities are still routinely ignored, excluded, patronized, and not regarded as full members of the political community, and that this denial of equal standing undermines their equal citizenship.
Abstract: It is a fundamental ideal of liberal democracy that all citizens should enjoy fully equal citizenship. Yet many minorities are still routinely ignored, excluded, patronized, and not regarded as full members of the political community. This denial of equal standing undermines their equal citizenship. Liberalism and Cultural Pluralism each advocate strategies to improve this situation. Their arguments build upon expectations about how citizens should, can, and do understand membership in the political community. Our survey and focus group data from six matched communities in the United States and Great Britain show how citizens’ understandings of membership in the political community incorporate communitarian attitudes that impede the liberal and cultural pluralist projects.
TL;DR: In this paper, a general model of how legislators decide whom they should target as prospective constituents was proposed and tested with travel data for 100 legislators elected in a single, nationwide district, finding that incumbents protect their existing supporters and avoid bailiwicks dominated by others.
Abstract: The vast majority of what we know about building prospective electoral constituencies is confined to single-member district systems. However, most legislators are elected in multimember districts. Given that multiple incumbents represent the same voters, how do legislators decide whom they should target as prospective constituents? We build a general model of this decision and test it with travel data for 100 legislators elected in a single, nationwide district. We find that incumbents protect their existing supporters and avoid bailiwicks dominated by others. We conclude by deducing hypotheses about party system effects on incumbents' decision making and the level of electoral conflict.