Showing papers in "The Lancet in 2015"

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Abstract: Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Abstract: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Abstract: Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality in 2000-13, with projections to inform post-2015 priorities: an updated systematic analysis.

Abstract: Summary Background Trend data for causes of child death are crucial to inform priorities for improving child survival by and beyond 2015. We report child mortality by cause estimates in 2000–13, and cause-specific mortality scenarios to 2030 and 2035. Methods We estimated the distributions of causes of child mortality separately for neonates and children aged 1–59 months. To generate cause-specific mortality fractions, we included new vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We used vital registration data in countries with adequate registration systems. We applied vital registration-based multicause models for countries with low under-5 mortality but inadequate vital registration, and updated verbal autopsy-based multicause models for high mortality countries. We used updated numbers of child deaths to derive numbers of deaths by causes. We applied two scenarios to derive cause-specific mortality in 2030 and 2035. Findings Of the 6·3 million children who died before age 5 years in 2013, 51·8% (3·257 million) died of infectious causes and 44% (2·761 million) died in the neonatal period. The three leading causes are preterm birth complications (0·965 million [15·4%, uncertainty range (UR) 9·8−24·5]; UR 0·615–1·537 million), pneumonia (0·935 million [14·9%, 13·0–16·8]; 0·817–1·057 million), and intrapartum-related complications (0·662 million [10·5%, 6·7–16·8]; 0·421–1·054 million). Reductions in pneumonia, diarrhoea, and measles collectively were responsible for half of the 3·6 million fewer deaths recorded in 2013 versus 2000. Causes with the slowest progress were congenital, preterm, neonatal sepsis, injury, and other causes. If present trends continue, 4·4 million children younger than 5 years will still die in 2030. Furthermore, sub-Saharan Africa will have 33% of the births and 60% of the deaths in 2030, compared with 25% and 50% in 2013, respectively. Interpretation Our projection results provide concrete examples of how the distribution of child causes of deaths could look in 15–20 years to inform priority setting in the post-2015 era. More evidence is needed about shifts in timing, causes, and places of under-5 deaths to inform child survival agendas by and beyond 2015, to end preventable child deaths in a generation, and to count and account for every newborn and every child. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

T cells expressing CD19 chimeric antigen receptors for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children and young adults: a phase 1 dose-escalation trial

Abstract: Summary Background Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) modified T cells targeting CD19 have shown activity in case series of patients with acute and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia and B-cell lymphomas, but feasibility, toxicity, and response rates of consecutively enrolled patients treated with a consistent regimen and assessed on an intention-to-treat basis have not been reported. We aimed to define feasibility, toxicity, maximum tolerated dose, response rate, and biological correlates of response in children and young adults with refractory B-cell malignancies treated with CD19-CAR T cells. Methods This phase 1, dose-escalation trial consecutively enrolled children and young adults (aged 1–30 years) with relapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukaemia or non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Autologous T cells were engineered via an 11-day manufacturing process to express a CD19-CAR incorporating an anti-CD19 single-chain variable fragment plus TCR zeta and CD28 signalling domains. All patients received fludarabine and cyclophosphamide before a single infusion of CD19-CAR T cells. Using a standard 3 + 3 design to establish the maximum tolerated dose, patients received either 1 × 10 6 CAR-transduced T cells per kg (dose 1), 3 × 10 6 CAR-transduced T cells per kg (dose 2), or the entire CAR T-cell product if sufficient numbers of cells to meet the assigned dose were not generated. After the dose-escalation phase, an expansion cohort was treated at the maximum tolerated dose. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01593696. Findings Between July 2, 2012, and June 20, 2014, 21 patients (including eight who had previously undergone allogeneic haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation) were enrolled and infused with CD19-CAR T cells. 19 received the prescribed dose of CD19-CAR T cells, whereas the assigned dose concentration could not be generated for two patients (90% feasible). All patients enrolled were assessed for response. The maximum tolerated dose was defined as 1 × 10 6 CD19-CAR T cells per kg. All toxicities were fully reversible, with the most severe being grade 4 cytokine release syndrome that occurred in three (14%) of 21 patients (95% CI 3·0–36·3). The most common non-haematological grade 3 adverse events were fever (nine [43%] of 21 patients), hypokalaemia (nine [43%] of 21 patients), fever and neutropenia (eight [38%] of 21 patients), and cytokine release syndrome (three [14%) of 21 patients). Interpretation CD19-CAR T cell therapy is feasible, safe, and mediates potent anti-leukaemic activity in children and young adults with chemotherapy-resistant B-precursor acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. All toxicities were reversible and prolonged B-cell aplasia did not occur. Funding National Institutes of Health Intramural funds and St Baldrick's Foundation.

Estimations of worldwide prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus infection: a systematic review of data published between 1965 and 2013.

Abstract: Summary Background The quantification of the burden of disease attributable to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and the adaptation of prevention and control measures requires knowledge on its prevalence in the general population. For most countries such data are not routinely available. We estimated the national, regional, and global prevalence of chronic HBV infection. Methods For this systematic review and pooled analysis, we searched for data on prevalence of chronic HBV infection published between Jan 1, 1965, and Oct 23, 2013, in the databases Medline, Embase, CAB Abstracts (Global health), Popline, and Web of Science. We included studies reporting the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) serological marker of chronic HBV infection in non-high-risk groups and extracted data into a customised database. For each country, we calculated HBsAg prevalence estimates and 95% CIs weighted by study size. We extrapolated prevalence estimates to population sizes in 2010 to obtain the number of individuals with chronic HBV infection. Findings Of the 17 029 records screened, 1800 report on the prevalence of HBsAg covering 161 countries were included. HBsAg seroprevalence was 3·61% (95% CI 3·61–3·61) worldwide with highest endemicity in countries of the African region (total 8·83%, 8·82–8·83) and Western Pacific region (total 5·26%, 5·26–5·26). Within WHO regions, prevalence ranged from 0·20% (0·19–0·21; Mexico) to 13·55% (9·00–19·89; Haiti) in the Americas, to 0·48% (0·12–1·90; the Seychelles) to 22·38% (20·10–24·83; South Sudan) in the African region. We estimated that in 2010, globally, about 248 million individuals were HBsAg positive. Interpretation This first global assessment of country-level population prevalence of chronic HBV infection found a wide variation between countries and highlights the need for continued prevention and control strategies and the collection of reliable epidemiologic data using standardised methodology. Funding World Health Organization.

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995–2009: analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

Abstract: Summary Background Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. Methods Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15–99 years) and 75 000 children (age 0–14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995–2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. Findings 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005–09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15–19% in North America, and as low as 7–9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10–20% between 1995–99 and 2005–09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995–99 and 2005–09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005–09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005–09 was high (54–58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18–23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. Interpretation International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems. Funding Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (Toronto, Canada), Cancer Focus Northern Ireland (Belfast, UK), Cancer Institute New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), Cancer Research UK (London, UK), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA), Swiss Re (London, UK), Swiss Cancer Research foundation (Bern, Switzerland), Swiss Cancer League (Bern, Switzerland), and University of Kentucky (Lexington, KY, USA).

Global Surgery 2030: evidence and solutions for achieving health, welfare, and economic development

Abstract: Remarkable gains have been made in global health in the past 25 years, but progress has not been uniform. Mortality and morbidity from common conditions needing surgery have grown in the world’s poorest regions, both in real terms and relative to other health gains. At the same time, development of safe, essential, life-saving surgical and anesthesia care in low- and middleincome countries (LMICs) has stagnated or regressed. In the absence of surgical care, case-fatality rates are high for common, easily treatable conditions including appendicitis, hernia, fractures, obstructed labor, congenital anomalies, and breast and cervical cancer. Although the term, low- and middleincome countries (LMICs), has been used throughout the report for brevity, the Commission realizes that tremendous income diversity exists between and within this group of countries. In 2015, many LMICs are facing a multifaceted burden of infectious disease, maternal disease, neonatal disease, noncommunicable diseases, and injuries. Surgical and anesthesia care are essential for the treatment of many of these conditions and represent an integral component of a functional, responsive, and resilient health system. In view of the large projected increase in the incidence of cancer, road traffic injuries, and cardiovascular and metabolic diseases in LMICs, the need for surgical services in these regions will continue to rise substantially from now until 2030. Reduction of death and disability hinges on access to surgical and anesthesiacare,whichshouldbeavailable, affordable,timely,andsafetoensuregood coverage, uptake, and outcomes. Despite a growing need, the develop

Farnesoid X nuclear receptor ligand obeticholic acid for non-cirrhotic, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (FLINT): a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Abstract: Summary Background The bile acid derivative 6-ethylchenodeoxycholic acid (obeticholic acid) is a potent activator of the farnesoid X nuclear receptor that reduces liver fat and fibrosis in animal models of fatty liver disease. We assessed the efficacy of obeticholic acid in adult patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. Methods We did a multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel group, randomised clinical trial at medical centres in the USA in patients with non-cirrhotic, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis to assess treatment with obeticholic acid given orally (25 mg daily) or placebo for 72 weeks. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 using a computer-generated, centrally administered procedure, stratified by clinical centre and diabetes status. The primary outcome measure was improvement in centrally scored liver histology defined as a decrease in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease activity score by at least 2 points without worsening of fibrosis from baseline to the end of treatment. A planned interim analysis of change in alanine aminotransferase at 24 weeks undertaken before end-of-treatment (72 weeks) biopsies supported the decision to continue the trial (relative change in alanine aminotransferase −24%, 95% CI −45 to −3). A planned interim analysis of the primary outcome showed improved efficacy of obeticholic acid (p=0·0024) and supported a decision not to do end-of-treatment biopsies and end treatment early in 64 patients, but to continue the trial to obtain the 24-week post-treatment measures. Analyses were done by intention-to-treat. This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01265498. Findings Between March 16, 2011, and Dec 3, 2012, 141 patients were randomly assigned to receive obeticholic acid and 142 to placebo. 50 (45%) of 110 patients in the obeticholic acid group who were meant to have biopsies at baseline and 72 weeks had improved liver histology compared with 23 (21%) of 109 such patients in the placebo group (relative risk 2·2, 95% CI 1·4 to 3·3; p=0·0002). 33 (23%) of 141 patients in the obeticholic acid developed pruritus compared with nine (6%) of 142 in the placebo group. Interpretation Obeticholic acid improved the histological features of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, but its long-term benefits and safety need further clarification. Funding National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Intercept Pharmaceuticals.

A 2 year multidomain intervention of diet, exercise, cognitive training, and vascular risk monitoring versus control to prevent cognitive decline in at-risk elderly people (FINGER): a randomised controlled trial

Abstract: Summary Background Modifiable vascular and lifestyle-related risk factors have been associated with dementia risk in observational studies. In the Finnish Geriatric Intervention Study to Prevent Cognitive Impairment and Disability (FINGER), a proof-of-concept randomised controlled trial, we aimed to assess a multidomain approach to prevent cognitive decline in at-risk elderly people from the general population. Methods In a double-blind randomised controlled trial we enrolled individuals aged 60–77 years recruited from previous national surveys. Inclusion criteria were CAIDE (Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia) Dementia Risk Score of at least 6 points and cognition at mean level or slightly lower than expected for age. We randomly assigned participants in a 1:1 ratio to a 2 year multidomain intervention (diet, exercise, cognitive training, vascular risk monitoring), or a control group (general health advice). Computer-generated allocation was done in blocks of four (two individuals randomly allocated to each group) at each site. Group allocation was not actively disclosed to participants and outcome assessors were masked to group allocation. The primary outcome was change in cognition as measured through comprehensive neuropsychological test battery (NTB) Z score. Analysis was by modified intention to treat (all participants with at least one post-baseline observation). This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01041989. Findings Between Sept 7, 2009, and Nov 24, 2011, we screened 2654 individuals and randomly assigned 1260 to the intervention group (n=631) or control group (n=629). 591 (94%) participants in the intervention group and 599 (95%) in the control group had at least one post-baseline assessment and were included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis. Estimated mean change in NTB total Z score at 2 years was 0·20 (SE 0·02, SD 0·51) in the intervention group and 0·16 (0·01, 0·51) in the control group. Between-group difference in the change of NTB total score per year was 0·022 (95% CI 0·002–0·042, p=0·030). 153 (12%) individuals dropped out overall. Adverse events occurred in 46 (7%) participants in the intervention group compared with six (1%) participants in the control group; the most common adverse event was musculoskeletal pain (32 [5%] individuals for intervention vs no individuals for control). Interpretation Findings from this large, long-term, randomised controlled trial suggest that a multidomain intervention could improve or maintain cognitive functioning in at-risk elderly people from the general population. Funding Academy of Finland, La Carita Foundation, Alzheimer Association, Alzheimer's Research and Prevention Foundation, Juho Vainio Foundation, Novo Nordisk Foundation, Finnish Social Insurance Institution, Ministry of Education and Culture, Salama bint Hamdan Al Nahyan Foundation, Axa Research Fund, EVO funding for University Hospitals of Kuopio, Oulu, and Turku and for Seinajoki Central Hospital and Oulu City Hospital, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare, and af Jochnick Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013

Abstract: Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013 : quantifying the epidemiological transition

Abstract: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

5-year outcomes of transcatheter aortic valve replacement or surgical aortic valve replacement for high surgical risk patients with aortic stenosis (PARTNER 1): a randomised controlled trial

Abstract: Summary Background The Placement of Aortic Transcatheter Valves (PARTNER) trial showed that mortality at 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years is much the same with transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) or surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) for high-risk patients with aortic stenosis. We report here the 5-year outcomes. Methods We did this randomised controlled trial at 25 hospitals, in Canada (two), Germany (one), and the USA (23). We used a computer-generated randomisation sequence to randomly assign high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis to either SAVR or TAVR with a balloon-expandable bovine pericardial tissue valve by either a transfemoral or transapical approach. Patients and their treating physicians were not masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome of the trial was all-cause mortality in the intention-to-treat population at 1 year, we present here predefined outcomes at 5 years. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00530894. Findings We screened 3105 patients, of whom 699 were enrolled (348 assigned to TAVR, 351 assigned to SAVR). Overall mean Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score was 11·7%. At 5 years, risk of death was 67·8% in the TAVR group compared with 62·4% in the SAVR group (hazard ratio 1·04, 95% CI 0·86–1·24; p=0·76). We recorded no structural valve deterioration requiring surgical valve replacement in either group. Moderate or severe aortic regurgitation occurred in 40 (14%) of 280 patients in the TAVR group and two (1%) of 228 in the SAVR group (p vs 56·6% for those with mild aortic regurgitation or less; p=0·003). Interpretation Our findings show that TAVR as an alternative to surgery for patients with high surgical risk results in similar clinical outcomes. Funding Edwards Lifesciences.

Subjective wellbeing, health, and ageing

Abstract: Summary Subjective wellbeing and health are closely linked to age. Three aspects of subjective wellbeing can be distinguished—evaluative wellbeing (or life satisfaction), hedonic wellbeing (feelings of happiness, sadness, anger, stress, and pain), and eudemonic wellbeing (sense of purpose and meaning in life). We review recent advances in the specialty of psychological wellbeing, and present new analyses about the pattern of wellbeing across ages and the association between wellbeing and survival at older ages. The Gallup World Poll, a continuing survey in more than 160 countries, shows a U-shaped relation between evaluative wellbeing and age in high-income, English speaking countries, with the lowest levels of wellbeing in ages 45–54 years. But this pattern is not universal. For example, respondents from the former Soviet Union and eastern Europe show a large progressive reduction in wellbeing with age, respondents from Latin America also shows decreased wellbeing with age, whereas wellbeing in sub-Saharan Africa shows little change with age. The relation between physical health and subjective wellbeing is bidirectional. Older people with illnesses such as coronary heart disease, arthritis, and chronic lung disease show both increased levels of depressed mood and impaired hedonic and eudemonic wellbeing. Wellbeing might also have a protective role in health maintenance. In an analysis of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we identify that eudemonic wellbeing is associated with increased survival; 29·3% of people in the lowest wellbeing quartile died during the average follow-up period of 8·5 years compared with 9·3% of those in the highest quartile. Associations were independent of age, sex, demographic factors, and baseline mental and physical health. We conclude that the wellbeing of elderly people is an important objective for both economic and health policy. Present psychological and economic theories do not adequately account for the variations in patterns of wellbeing with age across different parts of the world. The apparent association between wellbeing and survival is consistent with a protective role of high wellbeing, but alternative explanations cannot be ruled out at this stage.

Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study

Abstract: Summary Background Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. Methods We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. Findings We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality. Interpretation Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. Funding UK Medical Research Council.

The burden of disease in older people and implications for health policy and practice

Abstract: 23% of the total global burden of disease is attributable to disorders in people aged 60 years and older. Although the proportion of the burden arising from older people (≥60 years) is highest in high-income regions, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per head are 40% higher in low-income and middle-income regions, accounted for by the increased burden per head of population arising from cardiovascular diseases, and sensory, respiratory, and infectious disorders. The leading contributors to disease burden in older people are cardiovascular diseases (30·3% of the total burden in people aged 60 years and older), malignant neoplasms (15·1%), chronic respiratory diseases (9·5%), musculoskeletal diseases (7·5%), and neurological and mental disorders (6·6%). A substantial and increased proportion of morbidity and mortality due to chronic disease occurs in older people. Primary prevention in adults aged younger than 60 years will improve health in successive cohorts of older people, but much of the potential to reduce disease burden will come from more effective primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention targeting older people. Obstacles include misplaced global health priorities, ageism, the poor preparedness of health systems to deliver age-appropriate care for chronic diseases, and the complexity of integrating care for complex multimorbidities. Although population ageing is driving the worldwide epidemic of chronic diseases, substantial untapped potential exists to modify the relation between chronological age and health. This objective is especially important for the most age-dependent disorders (ie, dementia, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and vision impairment), for which the burden of disease arises more from disability than from mortality, and for which long-term care costs outweigh health expenditure. The societal cost of these disorders is enormous.

Safeguarding human health in the Anthropocene epoch: report of The Rockefeller Foundation–Lancet Commission on planetary health

Abstract: Earth's natural systems represent a growing threat to human health. And yet, global health has mainly improved as these changes have gathered pace. What is the explanation? As a Commission, we are deeply concerned that the explanation is straightforward and sobering: we have been mortgaging the health of future generations to realise economic and development gains in the present. By unsustainably exploiting nature's resources, human civilisation has fl ourished but now risks substantial health eff ects from the degradation of nature's life support systems in the future. Health eff ects from changes to the environment including climatic change, ocean acidifi cation, land degradation, water scarcity, overexploitation of fi sheries, and biodiversity loss pose serious challenges to the global health gains of the past several decades and are likely to become increasingly dominant during the second half of this century and beyond. These striking trends are driven by highly inequitable, ineffi cient, and unsustainable patterns of resource consumption and technological development, together with population growth. We identify three categories of challenges that have to be addressed to maintain and enhance human health in the face of increasingly harmful environmental trends. Firstly, conceptual and empathy failures (imagination challenges), such as an over-reliance on gross domestic product as a measure of human progress, the failure to account for future health and environmental harms over present day gains, and the disproportionate eff ect of those harms on the poor and those in developing nations. Secondly, knowledge failures (research and information challenges), such as failure to address social and environmental drivers of ill health, a historical scarcity of transdisciplinary research and funding, together with an unwillingness or inability to deal with uncertainty within decision making frameworks. Thirdly, implementation failures (governance challenges), such as how governments and institutions delay recognition and responses to threats, especially when faced with uncertainties, pooled common resources, and time lags between action and eff ect. Although better evidence is needed to underpin appropriate policies than is available at present, this should not be used as an excuse for inaction. Substantial potential exists to link action to reduce environmental damage with improved health outcomes for nations at all levels of economic development. This Commission identifi es opportunities for action by six key constituencies: health professionals, research funders and the academic community, the UN and Bretton Woods bodies, governments, investors and corporate reporting bodies, and civil society organisations. Depreciation of natural capital and nature's subsidy should be accounted for so that economy and nature are not falsely separated. Policies should balance social progress, environmental sustainability, and the economy. To support a world population of 9-10 billion people or more, resilient food and agricultural systems are needed to address both undernutrition and overnutrition, reduce waste, diversify diets, and minimise environmental damage. Meeting the need for modern family planning can improve health in the short termeg, from reduced maternal mortality and reduced pressures on the environment and on infrastructure. Planetary health off ers an unprecedented opportunity for advocacy of global and national reforms of taxes and subsidies for many sectors of the economy, including energy, agriculture, water, fi sheries, and health. Regional trade treaties should act to further incorporate the protection of health in the near and long term. Several essential steps need to be taken to transform the economy to support planetary health. These steps include a reduction of waste through the creation of products that are more durable and require less energy and materials to manufacture than those often produced at present; the incentivisation of recycling, reuse, and repair; and the substitution of hazardous materials with safer alternatives. Despite present limitations, the Sustainable Development Goals provide a great opportunity to integrate health and sustainability through the judicious selection of relevant indicators relevant to human wellbeing, the enabling infrastructure for development, and the supporting natural systems, together with the need for strong governance. The landscape, ecosystems, and the biodiversity they contain can be managed to protect natural systems, and indirectly, reduce human disease risk. Intact and restored ecosystems can contribute to resilience (see panel 1 for glossary of terms used in this report), for example, through improved coastal protection (eg, through wave attenuation) and the ability of fl oodplains and greening of river catchments to protect from river fl ooding events by diverting and holding excess water. The growth in urban populations emphasises the importance of policies to improve health and the urban environment, such as through reduced air pollution, increased physical activity, provision of green space, and urban planning to prevent sprawl and decrease the magnitude of urban heat islands. Transdisciplinary research activities and capacity need substantial and urgent expansion. Present research limitations should not delay action. In situations where technology and knowledge can deliver win-win solutions and co-benefi ts, rapid scale-up can be achieved if researchers move ahead and assess the implementation of potential solutions. Recent scientifi c investments towards understanding non-linear state shifts in ecosystems are very important, but in the absence of improved understanding and predictability of such changes, eff orts to improve resilience for human health and adaptation strategies remain a priority. The creation of integrated surveillance systems that collect rigorous health, socioeconomic, and environmental data for defi ned populations over long time periods can provide early detection of emerging disease outbreaks or changes in nutrition and non-communicable disease burden. The improvement of risk communication to policy makers and the public and the support of policy makers to make evidence-informed decisions can be helped by an increased capacity to do systematic reviews and the provision of rigorous policy briefs. Health professionals have an essential role in the achievement of planetary health: working across sectors to integrate policies that advance health and environmental sustainability, tackling health inequities, reducing the environmental impacts of health systems, and increasing the resilience of health systems and populations to environmental change. Humanity can be stewarded successfully through the 21st century by addressing the unacceptable inequities in health and wealth within the environmental limits of the Earth, but this will require the generation of new knowledge, implementation of wise policies, decisive action, and inspirational leadership.

Worldwide access to treatment for end-stage kidney disease: a systematic review.

Abstract: Summary Background End-stage kidney disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Prevalence of the disease and worldwide use of renal replacement therapy (RRT) are expected to rise sharply in the next decade. We aimed to quantify estimates of this burden. Methods We systematically searched Medline for observational studies and renal registries, and contacted national experts to obtain RRT prevalence data. We used Poisson regression to estimate the prevalence of RRT for countries without reported data. We estimated the gap between needed and actual RRT, and projected needs to 2030. Findings In 2010, 2·618 million people received RRT worldwide. We estimated the number of patients needing RRT to be between 4·902 million (95% CI 4·438–5·431 million) in our conservative model and 9·701 million (8·544–11·021 million) in our high-estimate model, suggesting that at least 2·284 million people might have died prematurely because RRT could not be accessed. We noted the largest treatment gaps in low-income countries, particularly Asia (1·907 million people needing but not receiving RRT; conservative model) and Africa (432 000 people; conservative model). Worldwide use of RRT is projected to more than double to 5·439 million (3·899–7·640 million) people by 2030, with the most growth in Asia (0·968 million to a projected 2·162 million [1·571–3·014 million]). Interpretation The large number of people receiving RRT and the substantial number without access to it show the need to both develop low-cost treatments and implement effective population-based prevention strategies. Funding Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health

Abstract: The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of climate change, and the necessary policy responses, in order to ensure the highest attainable stand ...

Dabrafenib and trametinib versus dabrafenib and placebo for Val600 BRAF-mutant melanoma: a multicentre, double-blind, phase 3 randomised controlled trial

Abstract: Summary Background Previously, a study of ours showed that the combination of dabrafenib and trametinib improves progression-free survival compared with dabrafenib and placebo in patients with BRAF Val600Lys/Glu mutation-positive metastatic melanoma. The study was continued to assess the secondary endpoint of overall survival, which we report in this Article. Methods We did this double-blind phase 3 study at 113 sites in 14 countries. We enrolled previously untreated patients with BRAF Val600Glu or Val600Lys mutation-positive unresectable stage IIIC or stage IV melanoma. Participants were computer-randomised (1:1) to receive a combination of dabrafenib (150 mg orally twice daily) and trametinib (2 mg orally once daily), or dabrafenib and placebo. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival and overall survival was a secondary endpoint. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01584648. Findings Between May 4, 2012, and Nov 30, 2012, we screened 947 patients for eligibility, of whom 423 were randomly assigned to receive dabrafenib and trametinib (n=211) or dabrafenib only (n=212). The final data cutoff was Jan 12, 2015, at which time 222 patients had died. Median overall survival was 25·1 months (95% CI 19·2–not reached) in the dabrafenib and trametinib group versus 18·7 months (15·2–23·7) in the dabrafenib only group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·71, 95% CI 0·55–0·92; p=0·0107). Overall survival was 74% at 1 year and 51% at 2 years in the dabrafenib and trametinib group versus 68% and 42%, respectively, in the dabrafenib only group. Based on 301 events, median progression-free survival was 11·0 months (95% CI 8·0–13·9) in the dabrafenib and trametinib group and 8·8 months (5·9–9·3) in the dabrafenib only group (HR 0·67, 95% CI 0·53–0·84; p=0·0004; unadjusted for multiple testing). Treatment-related adverse events occurred in 181 (87%) of 209 patients in the dabrafenib and trametinib group and 189 (90%) of 211 patients in the dabrafenib only group; the most common was pyrexia (108 patients, 52%) in the dabrafenib and trametinib group, and hyperkeratosis (70 patients, 33%) in the dabrafenib only group. Grade 3 or 4 adverse events occurred in 67 (32%) patients in the dabrafenib and trametinib group and 66 (31%) patients in the dabrafenib only group. Interpretation The improvement in overall survival establishes the combination of dabrafenib and trametinib as the standard targeted treatment for BRAF Val600 mutation-positive melanoma. Studies assessing dabrafenib and trametinib in combination with immunotherapies are ongoing. Funding GlaxoSmithKline.

Human embryonic stem cell-derived retinal pigment epithelium in patients with age-related macular degeneration and Stargardt's macular dystrophy: follow-up of two open-label phase 1/2 studies

Abstract: Summary Background Since they were first derived more than three decades ago, embryonic stem cells have been proposed as a source of replacement cells in regenerative medicine, but their plasticity and unlimited capacity for self-renewal raises concerns about their safety, including tumour formation ability, potential immune rejection, and the risk of differentiating into unwanted cell types. We report the medium-term to long-term safety of cells derived from human embryonic stem cells (hESC) transplanted into patients. Methods In the USA, two prospective phase 1/2 studies were done to assess the primary endpoints safety and tolerability of subretinal transplantation of hESC-derived retinal pigment epithelium in nine patients with Stargardt's macular dystrophy (age >18 years) and nine with atrophic age-related macular degeneration (age >55 years). Three dose cohorts (50 000, 100 000, and 150 000 cells) were treated for each eye disorder. Transplanted patients were followed up for a median of 22 months by use of serial systemic, ophthalmic, and imaging examinations. The studies are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, numbers NCT01345006 (Stargardt's macular dystrophy) and NCT01344993 (age-related macular degeneration). Findings There was no evidence of adverse proliferation, rejection, or serious ocular or systemic safety issues related to the transplanted tissue. Adverse events were associated with vitreoretinal surgery and immunosuppression. 13 (72%) of 18 patients had patches of increasing subretinal pigmentation consistent with transplanted retinal pigment epithelium. Best-corrected visual acuity, monitored as part of the safety protocol, improved in ten eyes, improved or remained the same in seven eyes, and decreased by more than ten letters in one eye, whereas the untreated fellow eyes did not show similar improvements in visual acuity. Vision-related quality-of-life measures increased for general and peripheral vision, and near and distance activities, improving by 16–25 points 3–12 months after transplantation in patients with atrophic age-related macular degeneration and 8–20 points in patients with Stargardt's macular dystrophy. Interpretation The results of this study provide the first evidence of the medium-term to long-term safety, graft survival, and possible biological activity of pluripotent stem cell progeny in individuals with any disease. Our results suggest that hESC-derived cells could provide a potentially safe new source of cells for the treatment of various unmet medical disorders requiring tissue repair or replacement. Funding Advanced Cell Technology.

Prognostic value of grip strength: findings from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study

Abstract: Summary Background Reduced muscular strength, as measured by grip strength, has been associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Grip strength is appealing as a simple, quick, and inexpensive means of stratifying an individual's risk of cardiovascular death. However, the prognostic value of grip strength with respect to the number and range of populations and confounders is unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the independent prognostic importance of grip strength measurement in socioculturally and economically diverse countries. Methods The Prospective Urban-Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, longitudinal population study done in 17 countries of varying incomes and sociocultural settings. We enrolled an unbiased sample of households, which were eligible if at least one household member was aged 35–70 years and if household members intended to stay at that address for another 4 years. Participants were assessed for grip strength, measured using a Jamar dynamometer. During a median follow-up of 4·0 years (IQR 2·9–5·1), we assessed all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, diabetes, cancer, pneumonia, hospital admission for pneumonia or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hospital admission for any respiratory disease (including COPD, asthma, tuberculosis, and pneumonia), injury due to fall, and fracture. Study outcomes were adjudicated using source documents by a local investigator, and a subset were adjudicated centrally. Findings Between January, 2003, and December, 2009, a total of 142 861 participants were enrolled in the PURE study, of whom 139 691 with known vital status were included in the analysis. During a median follow-up of 4·0 years (IQR 2·9–5·1), 3379 (2%) of 139 691 participants died. After adjustment, the association between grip strength and each outcome, with the exceptions of cancer and hospital admission due to respiratory illness, was similar across country-income strata. Grip strength was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio per 5 kg reduction in grip strength 1·16, 95% CI 1·13–1·20; p Interpretation This study suggests that measurement of grip strength is a simple, inexpensive risk-stratifying method for all-cause death, cardiovascular death, and cardiovascular disease. Further research is needed to identify determinants of muscular strength and to test whether improvement in strength reduces mortality and cardiovascular disease. Funding Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).

Radial versus femoral access in patients with acute coronary syndromes undergoing invasive management: a randomised multicentre trial

Abstract: Summary Background It is unclear whether radial compared with femoral access improves outcomes in unselected patients with acute coronary syndromes undergoing invasive management. Methods We did a randomised, multicentre, superiority trial comparing transradial against transfemoral access in patients with acute coronary syndrome with or without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction who were about to undergo coronary angiography and percutaneous coronary intervention. Patients were randomly allocated (1:1) to radial or femoral access with a web-based system. The randomisation sequence was computer generated, blocked, and stratified by use of ticagrelor or prasugrel, type of acute coronary syndrome (ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, troponin positive or negative, non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome), and anticipated use of immediate percutaneous coronary intervention. Outcome assessors were masked to treatment allocation. The 30-day coprimary outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events, defined as death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, and net adverse clinical events, defined as major adverse cardiovascular events or Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) major bleeding unrelated to coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The analysis was by intention to treat. The two-sided α was prespecified at 0·025. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01433627. Findings We randomly assigned 8404 patients with acute coronary syndrome, with or without ST-segment elevation, to radial (4197) or femoral (4207) access for coronary angiography and percutaneous coronary intervention. 369 (8·8%) patients with radial access had major adverse cardiovascular events, compared with 429 (10·3%) patients with femoral access (rate ratio [RR] 0·85, 95% CI 0·74–0·99; p=0·0307), non-significant at α of 0·025. 410 (9·8%) patients with radial access had net adverse clinical events compared with 486 (11·7%) patients with femoral access (0·83, 95% CI 0·73–0·96; p=0·0092). The difference was driven by BARC major bleeding unrelated to coronary artery bypass graft surgery (1·6% vs 2·3%, RR 0·67, 95% CI 0·49–0·92; p=0·013) and all-cause mortality (1·6% vs 2·2%, RR 0·72, 95% CI 0·53–0·99; p=0·045). Interpretation In patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing invasive management, radial as compared with femoral access reduces net adverse clinical events, through a reduction in major bleeding and all-cause mortality. Funding The Medicines Company and Terumo.

Middle East respiratory syndrome.

Abstract: The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a lethal zoonotic pathogen that was first identified in humans in Saudi Arabia and Jordan in 2012. Intermittent sporadic cases, community clusters, and nosocomial outbreaks of MERS-CoV continue to occur. Between April 2012 and December 2019, 2499 laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection, including 858 deaths (34·3% mortality) were reported from 27 countries to WHO, the majority of which were reported by Saudi Arabia (2106 cases, 780 deaths). Large outbreaks of human-to-human transmission have occurred, the largest in Riyadh and Jeddah in 2014 and in South Korea in 2015. MERS-CoV remains a high-threat pathogen identified by WHO as a priority pathogen because it causes severe disease that has a high mortality rate, epidemic potential, and no medical countermeasures. This Seminar provides an update on the current knowledge and perspectives on MERS epidemiology, virology, mode of transmission, pathogenesis, diagnosis, clinical features, management, infection control, development of new therapeutics and vaccines, and highlights unanswered questions and priorities for research, improved management, and prevention.

Efficacy and safety of LDL-lowering therapy among men and women: Meta-analysis of individual data from 174 000 participants in 27 randomised trials

Abstract: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, European Community Biomed Program.

Bariatric-metabolic surgery versus conventional medical treatment in obese patients with type 2 diabetes: 5 year follow-up of an open-label, single-centre, randomised controlled trial

Abstract: Summary Background Randomised controlled trials have shown that bariatric surgery is more effective than conventional treatment for the short-term control of type-2 diabetes. However, published studies are characterised by a relatively short follow-up. We aimed to assess 5 year outcomes from our randomised trial designed to compare surgery with conventional medical treatment for the treatment of type 2 diabetes in obese patients. Methods We did our open-label, randomised controlled trial at one diabetes centre in Italy. Patients aged 30–60 years with a body-mass index of 35 kg/m 2 or more and a history of type 2 diabetes lasting at least 5 years were randomly assigned (1:1:1), via a computer-generated randomisation procedure, to receive either medical treatment or surgery by Roux-en-Y gastric bypass or biliopancreatic diversion. Participants were aware of treatment allocation before the operation and study investigators were aware from the point of randomisation. The primary endpoint was the rate of diabetes remission at 2 years, defined as a glycated haemaglobin A 1c (HbA 1c ) concentration of 6·5% or less (≤47·5 mmol/mol) and a fasting glucose concentration of 5·6 mmol/L or less without active pharmacological treatment for 1 year. Here we analyse glycaemic and metabolic control, cardiovascular risk, medication use, quality of life, and long-term complications 5 years after randomisation. Analysis was by intention to treat for the primary endpoint and by per protocol for the 5 year follow-up. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00888836. Findings Between April 27, 2009, and Oct 31, 2009, we randomly assigned 60 patients to receive either medical treatment (n=20) or surgery by gastric bypass (n=20) or biliopancreatic diversion (n=20); 53 (88%) patients completed 5 years' follow-up. Overall, 19 (50%) of the 38 surgical patients (seven [37%] of 19 in the gastric bypass group and 12 [63%] of 19 in the bilipancreatic diversion group) maintained diabetes remission at 5 years, compared with none of the 15 medically treated patients (p=0·0007). We recorded relapse of hyperglycaemia in eight (53%) of the 15 patients who achieved 2 year remission in the gastric bypass group and seven (37%) of the 19 patients who achieved 2 year remission in the biliopancreatic diversion group. Eight (42%) patients who underwent gastric bypass and 13 (68%) patients who underwent biliopancreatic diversion had an HbA 1c concentration of 6·5% or less (≤47·5 mmol/mol) with or without medication, compared with four (27%) medically treated patients (p=0·0457). Surgical patients lost more weight than medically treated patients, but weight changes did not predict diabetes remission or relapse after surgery. Both surgical procedures were associated with significantly lower plasma lipids, cardiovascular risk, and medication use. Five major complications of diabetes (including one fatal myocardial infarction) arose in four (27%) patients in the medical group compared with only one complication in the gastric bypass group and no complications in the biliopancreatic diversion group. No late complications or deaths occurred in the surgery groups. Nutritional side-effects were noted mainly after biliopancreatic diversion. Interpretation Surgery is more effective than medical treatment for the long-term control of obese patients with type 2 diabetes and should be considered in the treatment algorithm of this disease. However, continued monitoring of glycaemic control is warranted because of potential relapse of hyperglycaemia. Funding Catholic University of Rome.

Aromatase inhibitors versus tamoxifen in early breast cancer: patient-level meta-analysis of the randomised trials

Abstract: Background The optimal ways of using aromatase inhibitors or tamoxifen as endocrine treatment for early breast cancer remains uncertain. Methods We undertook meta-analyses of individual data on 31 920 postmenopausal women with oestrogen-receptor-positive early breast cancer in the randomised trials of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 5 years of tamoxifen; of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5; and of 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5 versus 5 years of tamoxifen. Primary outcomes were any recurrence of breast cancer, breast cancer mortality, death without recurrence, and all-cause mortality. Intention-to-treat log-rank analyses, stratified by age, nodal status, and trial, yielded aromatase inhibitor versus tamoxifen first-event rate ratios (RRs). Findings In the comparison of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 5 years of tamoxifen, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 0-1 (RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.52-0.78) and 2-4 (RR 0.80, 0.68-0.93), and non-significantly thereafter. 10-year breast cancer mortality was lower with aromatase inhibitors than tamoxifen (12.1% vs 14.2%; RR 0.85, 0.75-0.96; 2p=0.009). In the comparison of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 0-1 (RR 0.74, 0.62-0.89) but not while both groups received aromatase inhibitors during years 2-4, or thereafter; overall in these trials, there were fewer recurrences with 5 years of aromatase inhibitors than with tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitors (RR 0.90, 0.81-0.99; 2p=0.045), though the breast cancer mortality reduction was not significant (RR 0.89, 0.78-1.03; 2p=0.11). In the comparison of 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5 versus 5 years of tamoxifen, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 2-4 (RR 0.56, 0.46-0.67) but not subsequently, and 10-year breast cancer mortality was lower with switching to aromatase inhibitors than with remaining on tamoxifen (8.7% vs 10.1%; 2p=0.015). Aggregating all three types of comparison, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors during periods when treatments differed (RR 0.70, 0.64-0.77), but not significantly thereafter (RR 0.93, 0.86-1.01; 2p=0.08). Breast cancer mortality was reduced both while treatments differed (RR 0.79, 0.67-0.92), and subsequently (RR 0.89, 0.81-0.99), and for all periods combined (RR 0.86, 0.80-0.94; 2p=0.0005). All-cause mortality was also reduced (RR 0.88, 0.82-0.94; 2p=0.0003). RRs differed little by age, body-mass index, stage, grade, progesterone receptor status, or HER2 status. There were fewer endometrial cancers with aromatase inhibitors than tamoxifen (10-year incidence 0.4% vs 1.2%; RR 0.33, 0.21-0.51) but more bone fractures (5-year risk 8.2% vs 5.5%; RR 1.42, 1.28-1.57); non-breast-cancer mortality was similar. Interpretation Aromatase inhibitors reduce recurrence rates by about 30% (proportionately) compared with tamoxifen while treatments diff er, but not thereafter. 5 years of an aromatase inhibitor reduces 10-year breast cancer mortality rates by about 15% compared with 5 years of tamoxifen, hence by about 40% (proportionately) compared with no endocrine treatment. Copyright (C) Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group (EBCTCG). Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY.

50 year trends in atrial fibrillation prevalence, incidence, risk factors, and mortality in the Framingham Heart Study: a cohort study

Abstract: Summary Background Comprehensive long-term data on atrial fibrillation trends in men and women are scant. We aimed to provide such data through analysis of the Framingham cohort over 50 years. Methods We investigated trends in incidence, prevalence, and risk factors for atrial fibrillation and its association with stroke and mortality after onset in 9511 participants enrolled in the Framingham Heart Study between 1958 and 2007. We analysed trends within 10 year groups (1958–67, 1968–77, 1978–87, 1988–97, and 1998–2007), stratified by sex. Findings During 50 years of observation (202 417 person-years), 1544 cases of new-onset atrial fibrillation occurred (of whom 723 [47%] were women). Between 1958–67 and 1998–2007, age-adjusted prevalence of atrial fibrillation quadrupled from 20·4 to 96·2 cases per 1000 person-years in men and from 13·7 to 49·4 cases per 1000 person-years in women; age-adjusted incidence increased from 3·7 to 13·4 new cases per 1000 person-years in men and from 2·5 to 8·6 new cases per 1000 person-years in women (p trend trend =0·0007; 8·1 to 11·8 in women, p trend =0·009). However, age-adjusted incidence of atrial fibrillation by Framingham Heart Study ECGs did not change significantly with time. Although the prevalence of most risk factors changed over time, their associated hazards for atrial fibrillation changed little. Multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models revealed a 74% (95% CI 50–86%) decrease in stroke (hazards ratio [HR] 3·77, 95% CI 1·98–7·20 in 1958–1967 compared with 1998–2007; p trend =0·0001) and a 25% (95% CI −3–46%) decrease in mortality (HR 1·34, 95% CI 0·97–1·86 in 1958–1967 compared with 1998–2007; p trend =0·003) in 20 years following atrial fibrillation onset. Interpretation Trends of increased incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the community were probably partly due to enhanced surveillance. Measures are needed to enhance early detection of atrial fibrillation, through increased awareness coupled with targeted screening programmes and risk factor-specific prevention. Funding NIH, NHLBI, NINDS, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

Primary chemotherapy versus primary surgery for newly diagnosed advanced ovarian cancer (CHORUS): an open-label, randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial

Abstract: Summary Background The international standard of care for women with suspected advanced ovarian cancer is surgical debulking followed by platinum-based chemotherapy. We aimed to establish whether use of platinum-based primary chemotherapy followed by delayed surgery was an effective and safe alternative treatment regimen. Methods In this phase 3, non-inferiority, randomised, controlled trial (CHORUS) undertaken in 87 hospitals in the UK and New Zealand, we enrolled women with suspected stage III or IV ovarian cancer. We randomly assigned women (1:1) either to undergo primary surgery followed by six cycles of chemotherapy, or to three cycles of primary chemotherapy, then surgery, followed by three more cycles of completion chemotherapy. Each 3-week cycle consisted of carboplatin AUC5 or AUC6 plus paclitaxel 175 mg/m 2 , or an alternative carboplatin combination regimen, or carboplatin monotherapy. We did the random assignment by use of a minimisation method with a random element, and stratified participants according to the randomising centre, largest radiological tumour size, clinical stage, and prespecified chemotherapy regimen. Patients and investigators were not masked to group assignment. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. Primary analyses were done in the intention-to-treat population. To establish non-inferiority, the upper bound of a one-sided 90% CI for the hazard ratio (HR) had to be less than 1·18. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN74802813, and is closed to new participants. Findings Between March 1, 2004, and Aug 30, 2010, we randomly assigned 552 women to treatment. Of the 550 women who were eligible, 276 were assigned to primary surgery and 274 to primary chemotherapy. All were included in the intention-to-treat analysis; 251 assigned to primary surgery and 253 to primary chemotherapy were included in the per-protocol analysis. As of May 31, 2014, 451 deaths had occurred: 231 in the primary-surgery group versus 220 in the primary-chemotherapy group. Median overall survival was 22·6 months in the primary-surgery group versus 24·1 months in primary chemotherapy. The HR for death was 0·87 in favour of primary chemotherapy, with the upper bound of the one-sided 90% CI 0·98 (95% CI 0·72–1·05). Grade 3 or 4 postoperative adverse events and deaths within 28 days after surgery were more common in the primary-surgery group than in the primary-chemotherapy group (60 [24%] of 252 women vs 30 [14%] of 209, p=0·0007, and 14 women [6%] vs 1 woman [ vs 14 [6%] in the primary-chemotherapy group). 110 (49%) of 225 women receiving primary surgery and 102 (40%) of 253 receiving primary chemotherapy had a grade 3 or 4 chemotherapy related toxic effect (p=0·0654), mostly uncomplicated neutropenia (20% and 16%, respectively). One fatal toxic effect, neutropenic sepsis, occurred in the primary-chemotherapy group. Interpretation In women with stage III or IV ovarian cancer, survival with primary chemotherapy is non-inferior to primary surgery. In this study population, giving primary chemotherapy before surgery is an acceptable standard of care for women with advanced ovarian cancer. Funding Cancer Research UK and the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

IgG4-related disease

Abstract: Summary IgG4-related disease is a protean condition that mimics many malignant, infectious, and inflammatory disorders. This multi-organ immune-mediated condition links many disorders previously regarded as isolated, single-organ diseases without any known underlying systemic condition. It was recognised as a unified entity only 10 years ago. Histopathology is the key to diagnosis. The three central pathology features of IgG4-related disease are lymphoplasmacytic infiltration, storiform fibrosis, and obliterative phlebitis. The extent of fibrosis is an important determinant of responsiveness to immunosuppressive therapies. IgG4-related disease generally responds to glucocorticoids in its inflammatory stage, but recurrent or refractory cases are common. Important mechanistic insights have been derived from studies of patients treated by B-cell depletion. Greater awareness of this disease is needed to ensure earlier diagnoses, which can prevent severe organ damage, disabling tissue fibrosis, and even death. Identification of specific antigens and T-cell clones that drive the disease will be the first steps to elucidate the pathogenesis of IgG4-related disease.