The Manchester School 

About: The Manchester School is an academic journal published by Wiley-Blackwell. The journal publishes majorly in the area(s): Monetary policy & Inflation. It has an ISSN identifier of 1463-6786. Over the lifetime, 2044 publications have been published receiving 48288 citations.

Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour

Abstract: Written in the classical tradition this essay attempts to determine what can be made of the classical framework in solving problems of distribution accumulation and growth first in a closed and then in an open economy. The purpose is to bring the framework of individual writers up to date in the light of modern knowledge and to see if it helps facilitate an understanding of the contemporary problems of large areas of the earth. The 1st task is to elaborate the assumption of an unlimited labor supply and by establishing that it is a useful assumption. The objective is merely to elaborate a different framework for those countries which the neoclassical (and Keynesian) assumptions do not fit. In the 1st place an unlimited supply of labor may be said to exist in those countries where population is so large relative to capital and natural resources that there are large sectors of the economy where the marginal productivity of labor is negligible zero or even negative. Several writers have drawn attention to the existence of such "disguised" unemployment in the agricultural sector. If unlimited labor is available while capital is scarce it is known from the Law of Variable Proportions that the capital should not be spread thinly over all the labor. Only so much labor should be used with capital as will reduce the marginal productivity of labor to zero. The key to the process of economic expansion is the use that is made of the capitalist surplus. In so far as this is reinvested in creating new capital the capital sector expands taking more people into capitalist employment out of the subsistence sector. The surplus is then larger still and capital formation is still greater and so the process continues until the labor surplus disappears. The central problem in the theory of economic development is to understand the process by which a community which was previously saving and investing 4 or 5% of its national income or less converts itself into an economy where voluntary saving is running at about 12-15% of national income or more. This is the crucial problem because the central fact of economic development is rapid capital accumulation (including knowledge and skills with capital). Much of the plausible explanation is that people save more because they have more to save. The model used here states that if unlimited supplies of labor are available at a constant real wage and if any part of profits is reinvested in productive capacity profits will grow continuously relative to the national income and capital formation will also grow relatively to the national income. As capitalists also create capital as a result of a net increase in the supply of money particularly bank credit it is necessary to take account of this. Governments affect the process of capital accumulation in many ways and not least by the inflations which they experience. The expansion of the capitalist sector may be stopped because the price of subsistence goods rises or because the price is not falling as fast as subsistence productivity per head is rising or because capitalist workers raise their subsistence standards.

The profitability of european banks: a cross-sectional and dynamic panel analysis*

Abstract: The profitability of European banks during the 1990s is investigated using cross-sectional, pooled cross-sectional time-series and dynamic panel models. Models for the determinants of profitability incorporate size, diversification, risk and ownership type, as well as dynamic effects. Despite intensifying competition there is significant persistence of abnormal profit from year to year. The evidence for any consistent or systematic size‐profitability relationship is relatively weak. The relationship between the importance of off-balance-sheet business in a bank’s portfolio and profitability is positive for the UK, but either neutral or negative elsewhere. The relationship between the capital‐assets ratio and profitability is positive.

Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia

Abstract: I consider the desirability of the observed tendency of central banks to adjust interest rates only gradually in response to changes in economic conditions. I show, in the context of a simple model of optimizing private sector behaviour, that such inertial behaviour on the part of the central bank may indeed be optimal, in the sense of minimizing a loss function that penalizes inflation variations, deviations of output from potential and interest rate variability. Sluggish adjustment characterizes an optimal policy commitment, even though no such inertia would be present in the case of discretionary optimization.

Public expenditure and economic growth: a disaggregated analysis for developing countries*

Abstract: In this paper, we examine the growth effects of government expenditure for a panel of 30 developing countries over the 1970s and 1980s, with a particular focus on disaggregated government expenditures. Our methodology improves on previous research on this topic by explicitly recognizing the role of the government budget constraint and the possible biases arising from omitted variables. Our primary results are twofold. First, the share of government capital expenditure in GDP is positively and significantly correlated with economic growth, but current expenditure is insignificant. Second, at the disaggregated level, government investment in education and total expenditures in education are the only outlays that are significantly associated with growth once the budget constraint and omitted variables are taken into consideration.