The Pakistan Development Review 

About: The Pakistan Development Review is an academic journal. The journal publishes majorly in the area(s): Population & Poverty. It has an ISSN identifier of 0030-9729. Over the lifetime, 2204 publications have been published receiving 25746 citations.

The demographic transition.

Abstract: Demographic transition is a set of changes in reproductive behaviour that are experienced as a society is transformed from a traditional pre-industrial state to a highly developed, modernized structure. The transformation is the substitution of slow growth achieved with low fertility and mortality for slow growth maintained with relatively high fertility and mortality rates. Contrary to early descriptions of the transition, fertility in pre-modem societies was well below the maximum that might be attained. However, it was kept at moderate levels by customs (such as late marriage or prolonged breast-feeding) not related to the number of children already born. Fertility has been reduced during the demographic transition by the adoption of contraception as a deliberate means of avoiding additional births. An extensive study of the transition in Europe shows the absence of a simple link of fertility with education, proportion urban, infant mortality and other aspects of development. It also suggests the importance of such cultural factors as common customs associated with a common language, and the strength of religious traditions. Sufficient modernization nevertheless seems always to bring the transition to low fertility and mortality.

Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Are they Related? Evidence from South Asian Countries

Abstract: I. INTRODUCTION The issue of whether stock prices and exchange rates are related or not has received considerable attention after the East Asian crisis. During the crisis the countries affected saw turmoil in both currency and stock markets. If stock prices and exchange rates are related and the causation runs from exchange rates to stock prices, then the crisis in the stock markets can be prevented by controlling the exchange rates. Moreover, developing countries can exploit such a link to attract/stimulate foreign portfolio investment in their own countries. Similarly, if the causation runs from stock prices to exchange rates then authorities can focus on domestic economic policies to stabilise the stock market. If the two markets/prices are related then investors can use this information to predict the behaviour of one market using the information on other market.

Macroeconomic Policies and their Impact on Poverty Alleviation in Pakistan

Abstract: The paper provides a consistent time-series of poverty estimates for the period 1963- 64 to 1992-93 for both the rural as well as the urban areas, examines the influence of macroeconomic policies on the poverty levels, analyses the impact of Structural Adjustment Programmes on the levels of poverty, and suggests a strategy for poverty alleviation in Pakistan. The paper explores in particular the influence on poverty of such factors as economic growth, agricultural growth, terms of trade for the agriculture sector, industrial production, rate of inflation, employment, wages, remittances, and the tax structure. While the paper cautions that on account of the limited number of observations the results of the study should be interpreted cautiously, the study does suggest that the growth above a threshold level of about 5 percent, increase in employment, and remittances are the most important variables explaining the change in poverty over time. The paper also comes to the conclusion that the policies pursued under the Structural Adjustment Programme have tended to increase the poverty levels mainly because of decline in growth rates, withdrawal of subsidies on agricultural inputs and consumption, decline in employment, increase in indirect taxes, and decline in public expenditure on social services. The paper also outlines a strategy for poverty eradication and argues that besides the safety nets, the employment programmes, as well as promotion of informal sector enterprises, are essential.

Energy and Economic Growth in Pakistan

Abstract: Recent rise in energy prices, shrinking existing resources, and the search for alternative sources of energy and energy conservation technologies have brought into focus the issue of causality between energy use and economic growth. The results of this study show that energy expansion is expected to lead to higher growth and its shortage may retard the growth process. The impact of all sources of energy on economic growth is not the same. The impact of electricity and petroleum products as well as that of electricity only is high and statistically significant. However, the reverse causality is critical for the petroleum products.

Role of Tourism in Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Economy

Abstract: Tourism activities are considered to be one of the major sources of economic growth. It can be regarded as a mechanism of generating the employment as well as income in both formal and informal sectors. Tourism supplements the foreign exchange earnings derived from trade in commodities and some times finance the import of capital goods necessary for the growth of manufacturing sectors in the economy. On the other hand rapid economic growth in the developed economies attracts foreign travels (Business travels), which leads to an increase in the foreign reserve of the country. Over the past several decades, international tourism has been gaining importance in many economies of the world. According to the World Tourism Organisation (2002), expenditures by 693 million international tourists traveling in 2001 totaled US $ 462 billion, roughly US $ 1.3 billion per day worldwide. In addition, tourists spending have served as an alternative form of exports, contributing to an ameliorated balance of payments through foreign exchange earnings in many countries. The rapid growth of tourism led to a growth of household incomes and government revenues directly and indirectly by means of multiplier effects, improving balance of payments and provoking tourism-promoted government policies. As a result, the development of tourism has generally been considered a positive contribution to economic growth.