The Wilson Journal of Ornithology 

About: The Wilson Journal of Ornithology is an academic journal published by Wilson Ornithological Society. The journal publishes majorly in the area(s): Nest & Population. It has an ISSN identifier of 1559-4491. Over the lifetime, 4443 publications have been published receiving 65193 citations. The journal is also known as: Wilson Journal of Ornithology & Wilson bulletin.

The mayfield method of estimating nesting success: a model, estimators and simulation results

Abstract: Mayfield (1960, 1961, 1975) proposed a method of estimating nesting success which removes potential sources of bias often associated with other estimates of this parameter. Despite the intuitive appeal of Mayfield's method and the general recognition that it is appropriate (e.g., Miller and Johnson 1978, Custer and Pitelka 1977, Johnson 1979), it is still not widely used. In this paper we present a probabilistic model for the experimental situation considered by Mayfield (1960, 1961, 1975). We then obtain maximum likelihood estimators based on this model and present results of Monte Carlo simulations designed to evaluate the estimators. Sample size considerations are also discussed. Mayfield's method is based on the concept of "nest days." The model he employs assumes the following: (a) the complete period to success, which we will call the nesting period, (for example, the period of incubation of eggs) is the same number of days, say J days, for all nests; (b) there is a constant unknown probability, p (0 < p < 1), over this period that a nest observed on day j will survive to day j + 1; the probability of a nest succeeding from day I to full term is then pJ; (c) there is a fixed unknown