Showing papers in "The World Bank Economic Review in 2012"

New Tools in Comparative Political Economy

Abstract: This article introduces a large new cross-country database, the Database of Political Institutions. It covers 177 countries over 21 years, 1975-95. The article presents the intuition, construction, and definitions of the different variables. Among the novel variables introduced are several measures of checks and balances, tenure and stability, identification of party affiliation with government or opposition, and fragmentation of opposition and government parties in the legislature.

Impact of SMS-Based Agricultural Information on Indian Farmers

Abstract: This study estimates the benefits that Indian farmers derive from market and weather information delivered to their mobile phones by a commercial service called Reuters Market Light (RML). We conduct a controlled randomized experiment in 100 villages of Maharashtra. Treated farmers associate RML information with a number of decisions they have made, and we find some evidence that treatment affected spatial arbitrage and crop grading. But the magnitude of these effects is small. We find no statistically significant average effect of treatment on the price received by farmers, crop value-added, crop losses resulting from rainstorms, or the likelihood of changing crop varieties and cultivation practices. Although disappointing, these results are in line with the market take-up rate of the RML service in the study districts, which shows small numbers of clients in aggregate and a relative stagnation in take-up over the study period. JEL codes: O13, Q11, Q13. The purpose of this study is to ascertain whether agricultural information distributed through mobile phones generates economic benefits to farmers. We implement a randomized controlled trial of a commercial service entitled Reuters Market Light (RML) offered by the largest and best-established private provider of agricultural price information in India at the time of the experiment. Operating in Maharashtra and other Indian states, RML distributes price, weather, and crop advisory information through SMS messages. We offered a one-year free subscription to RML to a random sample of farmers to test whether they obtain higher prices for their agricultural output.

Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability

Abstract: Using bank-level data for 80 countries in the years 1988-9S, this article shows that differences in interest margins and bank profitability reflect a variety of determinants: bank characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, explicit and implicit bank taxation, deposit insurance regulation, overall financial structure, and underlying legal and institutional indicators. A larger ratio of bank assets to gross domestic product and a lower market concentration ratio lead to lower margins and profits, controlling for differences in bank activity, leverage, and the macroeconomic environment. Foreign banks have higher margins and profits than domestic banks in developing countries, while the opposite holds in industrial countries. Also, there is evidence that the corporate tax burden is fully passed onto bank customers, while higher reserve requirements are not, especially in developing countries.

Combining Census and Survey Data to Trace the Spatial Dimensions of Poverty

Abstract: Poverty maps provide information on the spatial distribution of living standards. They are an important tool for policymakers, who rely on them to allocate transfers and inform policy design. Poverty maps art also an important tool for researchers, who use them to investigate the relationship between distribution within a country and growth or other economic, environmental, or social outcomes. A major impediment to the development of poverty maps has been that needed data on income or consumption typically are available only from relatively small surveys. Census data have the required sample size but generally do not have the required information. This article uses the case of Ecuador to demonstrate how sample survey data can be combined with census data to yield predicted poverty rates for the population covered by the census. These poverty rates are found to be precisely measured, even at fairly disaggregated levels. However, beyond a certain level of spatial disaggregation, standard errors rise rapidly.

Policy Barriers to International Trade in Services: Evidence from a New Database

Abstract: Surprisingly little is known about policies that affect international trade in services. Previous analyses have focused on policy commitments made by countries in international agreements, but in many cases, these commitments do not reflect actual policy. This paper describes a new initiative to collect comparable information on trade policies for services from 103 countries across a range of service sectors and relevant modes of service delivery. The resulting database reveals interesting policy patterns. Although public monopolies are now rare and few services markets are completely closed, the authors observe numerous second-generation restrictions on entry, ownership, and operations. Even in instances in which there is little explicit discrimination against foreign providers, market access is often unpredictable because the allocation of new licenses remains opaque and highly discretionary in many countries. Across regions, some of the fastest-growing countries in Asia and the oil-rich Gulf states have restrictive policies in services, whereas some of the poorest countries are remarkably open. Across sectors, professional and transportation services are among the most protected industries in both industrial and developing countries, whereas retail, telecommunications, and even finance tend to be more open.

How bank competition affects firms' access to finance

Abstract: Combining multi-year, firm-level surveys with country-level panel data for 53 countries, the authors explore the impact of bank competition on firms' access to finance. They find that low competition, as measured by high values of the Lerner index, diminishes firms' access to finance, while commonly-used bank concentration measures are not robust predictors of firms' access to finance. In addition, they find that the impact of competition on access to finance depends on the environment that banks operate in. Some features of the environment, such as greater financial development and better credit information, can mitigate the damaging impact of low competition. But other characteristics, such as high government bank ownership, can exacerbate the negative effect.

Conditional Cash Transfers and HIV/AIDS Prevention: Unconditionally Promising?

Abstract: Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) have recently received considerable attention as a potentially innovative and effective approach to the prevention of HIV/AIDS. We evaluate a conditional cash transfer program in rural Malawi which offered financial incentives to men and women to maintain their HIV status for approximately one year. The amounts of the reward ranged from zero to approximately 3‐4 months wage. We find no effect of the offered incentives on HIV status or on reported sexual behavior. However, shortly after receiving the reward, men who received the cash transfer were 9 percentage points more likely and women were 6.7 percentage points less likely to engage in risky sex. Our analyses therefore question the “unconditional effectiveness” of CCT program for HIV prevention: CCT Programs that aim to motivate safe sexual behavior in Africa should take into account that money given in the present may have much stronger effects than rewards offered in the future, and any effect of these programs may be fairly sensitive to the specific design of the program, the local and/or cultural context, and the degree of agency an individual has with respect to sexual behaviors. JEL codes: I12, C93, O12 Since the beginning of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, various strategies have been put in place to curb the spread of the disease and prevent further infections. There is ongoing research focusing on ways to reduce the HIV transmission rate such as treating of other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), vaccines and microbicides, and male circumcision. The majority of HIV prevention strategies have targeted behavior change, encouraging individuals to shift from risky to less risky sex. These strategies thus promote programs such as education about the disease and how to protect oneself, HIV testing to know one’s

The Effect of Refugee Inflows on Host Communities

Abstract: Despite the large and growing number of humanitarian emergencies, there is little economic research on the impact of refugees and internally displaced people on the communities that receive them. T...

Financial Institutions and Markets across Countries and over Time

Abstract: This article introduces the updated and expanded version of the Financial Development and Structure Database. The database includes indicators on the size, efficiency, and stability of banks, nonbank financial institutions, and equity and bond markets over 1960–2007. It also contains indicators of financial globalization.

The Distributional Impacts of Indonesia's Financial Crisis on Household Welfare

Abstract: Analyzing the distributional impacts of economic crises is an ever more pressing need. If policymakers are to intervene to help those most adversely affected, they need to identify those who have been hurt most and estimate the magnitude of the harm they have suffered. They must also respond in a timely manner. This article develops a simple methodology for measuring these effects and applies it to analyze the impact of the Indonesian economic crisis on household welfare. Using only pre-crisis household information, it estimates the compensating variation for Indonesian households following the 1997 Asian currency crisis and then explores the results with flexible nonparametric methods. It finds that virtually every household was severely affected, although the urban poor fared the worst. The ability of poor rural households to produce food mitigated the worst consequences of the high inflation. The distributional consequences are the same whether or not households are permitted to substitute toward relat...

Just Rewards? Local Politics and Public Resource Allocation in South India

Abstract: What factors determine the nature of political opportunism in local government in South India? To answer this question, we study two types of policy decisions that have been delegated to local politicians—beneficiary selection for transfer programs and the allocation of within-village public goods. Our data on village councils in South India show that, relative to other citizens, elected councillors are more likely to be selected as beneficiaries of a large transfer program. The chief councillor's village also obtains more public goods, relative to other villages. These findings can be interpreted using a simple model of the logic of political incentives in the context that we study.

The Decision to Import Capital Goods in India: Firms' Financial Factors Matter

Abstract: Are financial constraints preventing firms from importing capital goods? Sourcing capital goods from foreign countries is costly and requires internal or external financial resources. A simple mode...

The Impact and Targeting of Social Infrastructure Investments

Abstract: The benefit incidence and impact of projects financed by the Nicaraguan Emergency Social Investment Fund are investigated using a sample of beneficiaries, a national household survey, and two disti...

Spatial Dimensions of Trade Liberalization and Economic Convergence

Abstract: This article employs established techniques from the spatial economics literature to identify regional patterns of income and growth in Mexico and to examine how they have changed over the period spanned by trade liberalization and how they may be linked to the income divergence observed following liberalization. The article first shows that divergence has emerged in the form of several income clusters that only partially correspond to traditional geographic regions. Next, when regions are defined by spatial correlation in incomes, a "south" clearly exists, but the "north" seems to be restricted to the states directly on the U.S. border and there is no "center" region. Overall, the principal dynamic of both the increased spatial dependency and the increased divergence lies not on the border but in the sustained underperformance of the southern states, starting before the North American Free-Trade Agreement, and to a lesser extent in the superior performance of an emerging convergence club in the north-cen...

Political Accountability and Regulatory Performance in Infrastructure Industries

Abstract: The relationship between the quality of political institutions and the performance of regulation has recently assumed greater prominence in the policy debate on the effectiveness of infrastructure industry reforms. Taking the view that political accountability is a key factor linking political and regulatory structures and processes, this article empirically investigates its impact on the performance of regulation in telecommunications in time-series–cross-sectional data sets for 29 developing countries and 23 developed countries during 1985–99. In addition to confirming some well-documented results on the positive role of regulatory governance in infrastructure industries, the article provides empirical evidence on the impact of the quality of political institutions and their modes of functioning on regulatory performance. The analysis finds that the impact of political accountability on the performance of regulation is stronger in developing countries. An important policy implication is that future refo...

Inequality of Opportunity in Egypt

Abstract: The article evaluates the contribution of inequality of opportunity to earnings inequality in Egypt and analyzes its evolution across three time periods and different population groups. It provides parametric and nonparametric estimates of a lower bound for the degree of inequality of opportunity for wage and salary workers. On average, the contribution of opportunity-shaping circumstances to earnings inequality declined from 22 percent in 1988 to 15 percent in 2006. Levels of inequality of opportunity were fairly stable while earnings differentials widened markedly, leading to a decline in the share of inequality attributable to opportunities. Father's background and geographic origins had the largest effect on earnings, although the impact of mother's education has risen in recent years. The degree of inequality of opportunity did not differ significantly by gender or rural–urban area, although the incidence was lower for men and for rural areas. The results indicate an increase in inequality of opportu...

Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries

Abstract: Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: An Introduction Norman V. Loayza, Romain Ranciere, Luis Serven, ` and Jaume Ventura Macroeconomic volatility, both a source and a reflection of underdevelopment, is a fundamental concern for developing countries. This article provides a brief overview of the recent literature on macroeconomic volatility in developing countries, highlighting its causes, consequences, and possible remedies. to reduce domestic policy-induced macroeconomic volatility by controlling the level and variability of fiscal expenditures, by keeping inflation low and stable, and by avoiding price rigidity (including that of the exchange rate), which eventually leads to drastic adjustments. The ability to conduct countercyclical fiscal policies is crucial, and it depends largely on the ability of the authorities to reduce public indebtedness to internationally acceptable levels, establish a record of saving in good times to provide for bad times, and develop credibility tha...

Optimal food price stabilization in a small open developing country

Abstract: In poor countries, most governments implement policies aiming to stabilize the prices of staple foods, which often include storage and trade measures insulating their domestic market from the world market. It is of crucial importance to understand the precise motivations and efficiency of those interventions, because they can have consequences worldwide. This paper addresses those issues by analyzing the case of a small, open developing country confronted by shocks to both the crop yield and foreign price. In this model, government interventions may be justified by the lack of an insurance market for food prices. Considering this market imperfection, the authors design optimal public interventions through trade and storage policies. They show that an optimal trade policy largely consists of subsidizing imports and taxing exports, which benefits consumers at the expense of producers. Import subsidies alleviate the non-negativity of food storage. In other words, when stocks are exhausted, subsidizing imports prevents domestic price spikes. One striking result: an optimal storage policy on its own is detrimental to consumers, since its stabilizing benefits leak into the world market and it raises the average domestic price. By contrast, an optimal combination of storage and trade policies results in a powerful stabilizing effect for domestic food prices.

Psychological Health Before, During, and After an Economic Crisis

Abstract: The 1997 Indonesian financial crisis resulted in severe economic dislocation and political upheaval. Previous studies have established the detrimental consequences for economic welfare, physical he...

Is There a Metropolitan Bias? The relationship between poverty and city size in a selection of developing countries

Abstract: This paper provides evidence from eight developing countries of an inverse relationship between poverty and city size. Poverty is both more widespread and deeper in very small and small towns than in large or very large cities. This basic pattern is generally robust to the choice of poverty line. The paper shows, further, that for all eight countries, a majority of the urban poor live in medium, small or very small towns. Moreover, it is shown that the greater incidence and severity of consumption poverty in smaller towns is generally compounded by similarly greater deprivation in terms of access to basic infrastructure services, such as electricity, heating gas, sewerage and solid waste disposal. We illustrate for one country – Morocco – that inequality within large cities is not driven by a severe dichotomy between slum dwellers and others. Robustness checks are performed to assess whether the findings in the paper hinge on a specific definition of “urban area”; are driven by differences in the cost of ...

Governance Matters III

Abstract: Six dimensions of governance are estimated covering 199 countries and territories for four periods: 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002. The indicators are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance drawn from 25 data sources constructed by 18 organizations. These individual measures are assigned to categories capturing key dimensions of governance. An unobserved-components model is used to construct six aggregate governance indicators in each of the four periods. Point estimates of the dimensions of governance are provided as well as the margins of errors for each country for the four periods. Methodological issues are also addressed, including tests for potential biases, and the interpretation and use of the data, given the estimated margins of errors for the indicators. The data and a Web-based graphical interface are available online at www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance/govdata2002/index.html.

Food security and storage in the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract: In times of highly volatile commodity markets, governments often try to protect their populations from rapidly-rising food prices, which can be particularly harsh for the poor. A potential solution for food-deficit countries is to hold strategic reserves, which can be called on when international prices spike. But how large should strategic stockpiles be? This paper develops a dynamic storage model for wheat in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where imported wheat dominates the average diet. The paper uses the model to analyze a strategy that sets aside wheat stockpiles, which can be used when needed to keep domestic prices below a targeted price. This paper shows that if the target is set high and reserves are adequate, the strategy can be effective and robust. Contrary to most interventions, strategic storage policies are counter-cyclical and, when the importing region is sufficiently large, a regional policy can smooth global prices. This paper shows that this is the case for the MENA region. Nevertheless, the policy is more costly than the pro-cyclical policy of a targeted intervention that directly offsets high prices with a subsidy similar to food stamps.

Where on Earth is Everybody

Abstract: Global matrices of bilateral migrant stocks spanning 1960–2000 are presented, disaggregated by gender and based primarily on the foreign-born definition of migrants. More than one thousand census and population register records are combined to construct decennial matrices corresponding to the five census rounds between 1960 and 2000. For the first time, a comprehensive picture of bilateral global migration over the second half of the 20th century emerges. The data reveal that the global migrant stock increased from 92 million in 1960 to 165 million in 2000. Quantitatively, migration between developing countries dominates, constituting half of all international migration in 2000. When the partition of India and the dissolution of the Soviet Union are accounted for, migration between developing countries is remarkably stable over the period. Migration from developing to developed countries is the fastest growing component of international migration in both absolute and relative terms. The United States has ...

Macro'economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries

Abstract: This article documents the main stylized features of macroeconomic fluctuations for 12 developing countries. It presents cross-correlations between domestic industrial output and a large group of macroeconomic variables, including fiscal variables, wages, inflation, money, credit, trade, and exchange rates. Also analyzed are the effects of economic conditions in industrial countries on output fluctuations in the sample developing countries. The results point to many similarities between macroeconomic fluctuations in developing and industrial countries (procyclical real wages, countercyclical variation in government expenditures) and some important differences (countercyclical variation the velocity of monetary aggregates). Their robustness is examined using different detrending procedures.

Early Academic Performance, Grade Repetition, and School Attainment in Senegal

Abstract: Little is known in developing country environments about how a child's cognitive skills manifested in the first years of schooling are related to later educational success, because the panel data needed to analyze this question have been lacking. This study takes advantage of a unique data set from Senegal that combines test score data for children from the second grade with information on their subsequent school progression from a follow-up survey conducted seven years later. Measures of skills from early primary school, corrected for measurement error using multiple test observations per child, are strongly positively associated with later school progression. A plausible interpretation is that parents invest more in a child's education when the returns to doing so are higher. The results point to the need for remedial policies to target lagging students early on to reduce early dropout. Grade repetition policies target poorly performing students and are pervasive in Francophone Africa. Using variation a...

Openness and Wage Inequality in Developing Countries

Abstract: The experience of East Asia in the 1960s and 1970s supports the theory that greater openness to trade tends to narrow the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers in developing countries. In Latin America since the mid-1980s, however, increased openness has widened wage differentials. This conflict of evidence is probably not the result of differences between East Asia and Latin America. Instead, the conflict is probably the result of differences between the 1960s and the 1980s, specifically, the entry of China into the world market and, perhaps, the advent of new technology biased against unskilled workers.

The Surge in Capital Inflows to Developing Countries

Abstract: After being excluded from world capital markets during the debt crisis, many developing countries have experienced large capital inflows during the past five years. The challenges that these inflows pose for domestic policy in recipient countries have generated a substantial literature. This article presents an overview of that literature, describing the characteristics of the new inflows, analyzing the policy issues they raise, assessing their causes and likely sustainability, and evaluating potential policy responses. The desirable policy response is tied to characteristics of the flows themselves as well as to the characteristics of the recipient economy.

Capital Account Liberalization

Abstract: Capital account liberalization, it is fair to say, remains one of the most controversial and least understood policies of our day. One reason is that different theoretical perspectives have very different implications for the desirability of liberalizing capital flows. Another is that empirical analysis has failed to yield conclusive results.

The Impact of Financial Literacy Training for Migrants

Abstract: Remittances are a major source of external financing for many developing countries, but the cost of sending them remains high in many migration corridors. Despite efforts to lower these costs by offering new products and developing cost-comparison information sources, many new and promising inexpensive remittance methods have relatively low adoption rates. The lack of financial literacy among migrants has been identified as one potentially important barrier to competition and new product adoption. This paper presents the results of a randomized experiment designed to measure the impact of providing financial literacy training to migrants. Training appears to increase financial knowledge and information-seeking behavior and reduces the risk of switching to costlier remittance products, but it does not result in significant changes in the frequency of remitting or in the remitted amount.

Productivity and Turnover in the Export Market

Abstract: Widespread empirical evidence indicates that exporting producers have higher productivity than nonexporters, although the reasons why are unclear. Some analysts argue that exporters acquire knowledge of new production methods, inputs, and product designs from their international contacts, and with this knowledge they achieve higher productivity than their more insulated domestic counterparts. Others argue that the higher productivity of exporters reflects the self-selection of more efficient producers into a highly competitive export market. This article analyzes the link between a producer's total factor productivity and its decision to participate in the export market, using manufacturing data from the Republic of Korea and Taiwan (China). Differences are found between these two economies in the importance of selection and learning. In Taiwan (China) transitions of plants into and out of the export market reflect systematic variations in productivity as predicted by self-selection models. In Korea there...