Showing papers in "Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change in 2011"

Drought under global warming: a review

Abstract: This article reviews recent literature on drought of the last millennium, followed by an update on global aridity changes from 1950 to 2008. Projected future aridity is presented based on recent studies and our analysis of model simulations. Dry periods lasting for years to decades have occurred many times during the last millennium over, for example, North America, West Africa, and East Asia. These droughts were likely triggered by anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), with La Ni˜ na-like SST anomalies leading to drought in North America, and El-Ni˜ no-like SSTs causing drought in East China. Over Africa, the southward shift of the warmest SSTs in the Atlantic and warming in the Indian Ocean are responsible for the recent Sahel droughts. Local feedbacks may enhance and prolong drought. Global aridity has increased substantially since the 1970s due to recent drying over Africa, southern Europe, East and South Asia, and eastern Australia. Although El Ni˜ no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical Atlantic SSTs, and Asian monsoons have played a large role in the recent drying, recent warming has increased atmospheric moisture demand and likely altered atmospheric circulation patterns, both contributing to the drying. Climate models project increased aridity in the 21 st century over most of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Regions like the United States have avoided prolonged droughts during the last 50 years due to natural climate variations, but might see persistent droughts in the next 20–50 years. Future efforts to predict drought will depend on models’ ability to predict tropical SSTs. 2010 JohnWiley &Sons,Ltd.WIREs Clim Change2010 DOI:10.1002/wcc.81

Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data

Abstract: Indices for climate variability and extremes have been used for a long time, often by assessing days with temperature or precipitation observations above or below specific physically-based thresholds. While these indices provided insight into local conditions, few physically based thresholds have relevance in all parts of the world. Therefore, indices of extremes evolved over time and now often focus on relative thresholds that describe features in the tails of the distributions of meteorological variables. In order to help understand how extremes are changing globally, a subset of the wide range of possible indices is now being coordinated internationally which allows the results of studies from different parts of the world to fit together seamlessly. This paper reviews these as well as other indices of extremes and documents the obstacles to robustly calculating and analyzing indices and the methods developed to overcome these obstacles. Gridding indices are necessary in order to compare observations with climate model output. However, gridding indices from daily data are not always straightforward because averaging daily information from many stations tends to dampen gridded extremes. The paper describes recent progress in attribution of the changes in gridded indices of extremes that demonstrates human influence on the probability of extremes. The paper also describes model projections of the future and wraps up with a discussion of ongoing efforts to refine indices of extremes as they are being readied to contribute to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:851–870. doi: 10.1002/wcc.147 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and observational evidence

Abstract: This article summarizes the changes in landscape structure because of human land managementoverthelastseveralcenturies,andusingobservedandmodeleddata, documents how these changes have altered biogeophysical and biogeochemical surface fluxes on the local, mesoscale, and regional scales. Remaining research issues are presented including whether these landscape changes alter large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns far from where the land use and land cover changes occur. We conclude that existing climate assessments have not yet adequately factored in this climate forcing. For those regions that have undergone intensive human landscape change, or would undergo intensive change in the future, we conclude that the failure to factor in this forcing risks a misalignment of investment in climate mitigation and adaptation.  2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Individual understandings, perceptions, and engagement with climate change: insights from in-depth studies across the world

Abstract: Public understandings and perceptions of, as well as engagement with, climate change have garnered the interest of research and policy for almost three decades. A portion of this growing body of literature examines such perceptions in-depth, using largely qualitative methodologies, such as personal interviews, limited sample size surveys, focus groups, and case studies. This area of research has been conducted on different continents, with individuals of different cultural backgrounds and ethnic groups, and a variety of demographic characteristics. It has examined various aspects of the communication process, such as audience differences, influence of framing, messages and messengers, information processing, etc.). This paper focuses on this subset of the climate change literature, highlighting similarities and differences across cultural, social, and geographical landscapes. Apart from demographic and regional differences, this literature also offers more detailed insights into the effectiveness of different communication strategies and into the cognitive and psychological processes that underlie public opinions. These insights are generally not obtained through large-scale opinion surveys. Our review highlights great variation and sometimes direct contradiction between these pieces of research. This not only points to a need for further refinement in our knowledge of public understanding and engagement, but also simply to accept that no one theory will explain the variation in human experience of climate change and action in response to it. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 547–569 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.120 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website

Resilience implications of policy responses to climate change

Abstract: This article examines whether some response strategies to climate variability and change have the potential to undermine long-term resilience of social–ecological systems. We define the parameters of a resilience approach, suggesting that resilience is characterized by the ability to absorb perturbations without changing overall system function, the ability to adapt within the resources of the system itself, and the ability to learn, innovate, and change. We evaluate nine current regional climate change policy responses and examine governance, sensitivity to feedbacks, and problem framing to evaluate impacts on characteristics of a resilient system. We find that some responses, such as the increase in harvest rates to deal with pine beetle infestations in Canada and expansion of biofuels globally, have the potential to undermine long-term resilience of resource systems. Other responses, such as decentralized water planning in Brazil and tropical storm disaster management in Caribbean islands, have the potential to increase long-term resilience. We argue that there are multiple sources of resilience in most systems and hence policy should identify such sources and strengthen capacities to adapt and learn.  2011

Behavioral dimensions of climate change: drivers, responses, barriers, and interventions

Abstract: This overview describes the anthropogenic drivers of global climate change, reviews the behavioral and psychological responses to its impacts (including barriers to behavior change), considers behavior-focused intervention strategies, and suggests future directions for research. In doing so, it demonstrates why and how behavioral science is crucial for confronting the complex challenges posed by global climate change. The human dimensions of climate change are discussed, followed by descriptions of key theoretical models for explaining and predicting climate-relevant behavior, issues and distinctions in studying human behavior in response to global climate change, an account of psychological (as opposed to structural) adaptation and its behavioral sequelae, the many psychological barriers to behavior change in this context, and behavior-focused intervention strategies. The overview concludes with suggestions for researchers interested in advancing knowledge about behavior change and psychological responses to climate change. When knowledge about human behavior, cognitions, and psychological adaptation is integrated with that produced by researchers in related social and natural science disciplines, the result will facilitate solutions to this massive shared challenge. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. How to cite this article:

Use of models in detection and attribution of climate change

Abstract: Most detection and attribution studies use climate models to determine both the expected ‘fingerprint’ of climate change and the uncertainty in the estimated magnitude of this fingerprint in observations, given the climate variability. This review discusses the role of models in detection and attribution, the associated uncertainties, and the robustness of results. Studies that use observations only make substantial assumptions to separate the components of observed changes due to radiative forcing from those due to internal climate variability. Results from observation-only studies are broadly consistent with those from fingerprint studies. Fingerprint studies evaluate the extent to which patterns of response to external forcing (fingerprints) from climate model simulations explain observed climate change in observations. Fingerprints are based on climate models of various complexities, from energy balance models to full earth system models. Statistical approaches range from simple comparisons of observations with model simulations to multi-regression methods that estimate the contribution of several forcings to observed change using a noise-reducing metric. Multi-model methods can address model uncertainties to some extent and we discuss how remaining uncertainties can be overcome. The increasing focus on detecting and attributing regional climate change and impacts presents both opportunities and challenges. Challenges arise because internal variability is larger on smaller scales, and regionally important forcings, such as from aerosols or land-use change, are often uncertain. Nevertheless, if regional climate change can be linked to external forcing, the results can be used to provide constraints on regional climate projections.

Climate change and the imagination.

Abstract: This review article surveys the complex terrain of the imagination as a way of understanding and exploring the manifestations of anthropogenic climate change in culture and society. Imagination here is understood as a way of seeing, sensing, thinking, and dreaming that creates the conditions for material interventions in, and political sensibilities of the world. It draws upon literary, filmic, and creative arts practices to argue that imaginative practices from the arts and humanities play a critical role in thinking through our representations of environmental change and offer strategies for developing diverse forms of environmental understanding from scenario building to metaphorical, ethical, and material investigations. The interplay between scientific practices and imaginative forms is also addressed. Thematically, this review addresses the modalities of climate futures, adaptive strategies, and practices of climate science in its study of key imaginative framings of climate change.

Public engagement with large-scale renewable energy technologies: breaking the cycle of NIMBYism

Abstract: In response to the threat of climate change, many governments have set policy goals to rapidly and extensively increase the use of renewable energy in order to lessen reliance upon fossil fuels and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. Such policy goals are ambitious, given past controversies over large-scale renewable energy projects, particularly onshore wind farms, that have occurred in many countries and involved bitter disputes between private developers and local ‘NIMBYs’ (not in my backyard) protestors. This article critically reviews recent research into how public engagement is conceived and practiced by policy makers and developers, with a specific focus upon the UK. The review reveals a distinction between different scales of technology deployment, with active public engagement only promoted at smaller scales, and a more passive role promoted at larger scales. This passive role stems from the influence of widely held NIMBY conceptions that presume the public to be an ‘ever present danger’ to development, arising from a deficit in factual knowledge and a surfeit of emotion, to be marginalized through streamlined planning processes and one-way engagement mechanisms. It is concluded that NIMBYism is a destructive, self-fulfilling way of thinking that risks undermining the fragile, qualified social consent that exists to increase renewable energy use. Breaking the cycle of NIMBYism requires new ways of thinking and practicing public engagement that better connect national policy making with local places directly affected by specific projects. Such a step would match the radical ambitions of rapid increases in renewable energy use with a process of change more likely to facilitate its achievement. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 19–26 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.89 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website

Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy

Abstract: Changes in atmospheric temperature have a particular importance in climate research because climate models consistently predict a distinctive vertical profile of trends. With increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the surface and troposphere are consistently projected to warm, with an enhancement of that warming in the tropical upper troposphere. Hence, attempts to detect this distinct ‘fingerprint’ have been a focus for observational studies. The topic acquired heightened importance following the 1990 publication of an analysis of satellite data which challenged the reality of the projected tropospheric warming. This review documents the evolution over the last four decades of understanding of tropospheric temperature trends and their likely causes. Particular focus is given to the difficulty of producing homogenized datasets, with which to derive trends, from both radiosonde and satellite observing systems, because of the many systematic changes over time. The value of multiple independent analyses is demonstrated. Paralleling developments in observational datasets, increased computer power and improved understanding of climate forcing mechanisms have led to refined estimates of temperature trends from a wide range of climate models and a better understanding of internal variability. It is concluded that there is no reasonable evidence of a fundamental disagreement between tropospheric temperature trends from models and observations when uncertainties in both are treated comprehensively.  2010 Crown copyright WIREs Clim

Earth system models: an overview

Abstract: Earth System models (ESMs) are global climate models with the added capability to explicitly represent biogeochemical processes that interact with the physical climate and so alter its response to forcing such as that associated with human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases. Representing the global carbon cycle allows for feedbacks between the physical climate and the biological and chemical processes in the ocean and on land that take up some of the emitted carbon dioxide and so act to reduce warming. The sulfur cycle is also important in that both natural and human emissions of sulfur contribute to the production of sulfate aerosols which reflect incoming solar radiation (a direct cooling effect) and alter cloud properties (an indirect cooling effect). Other components such as ozone are also being incorporated into some ESMs. Evaluating the physical component of an ESM is becoming increasingly comprehensive and sophisticated, but the evaluation of the biogeochemical components suffer somewhat from a lack of comprehensive global-scale observational data. Nevertheless, such models provide valuable insight into climate variability and change, and the role of human activities and possible mitigation actions on future climate change. Internationally coordinated experiments are increasingly important in providing a multimodel ensemble of climate simulations, thereby taking advantage of some ‘cancellation of errors’ and allowing better quantification of uncertainty. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:783–800. doi: 10.1002/wcc.148 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Adaptation and resilience: responding to a changing climate

Abstract: Adaptation and resilience are two concepts originally developed in dissimilar problem contexts but which are of significant importance for our ability to respond to a changing climate. While both concepts encompass processes of change they differ in several important areas. This article discusses the relationship between the two concepts and highlights three issues concerned with our ability to respond to and manage change. First, although adaptation responses can help to build resilience, they just as easily can undermine resilience. Second, the magnitude of change may be outside our abilities to adapt, and thus it is not always possible to maintain system resilience. Finally, resilience is not a normative concept. The desirability of a resilient system, or community, must be considered in light of social goals and how benefits and risks are distributed. Better appreciation of the relationship between the concepts of adaptation and resilience will provide more effective tools to plan for, and respond to, current and future change. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 113–120 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.91 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website

The role for ‘community’ in carbon governance

Abstract: The notion of community-based activity has increasingly been enrolled within carbon governance discourses and programs of recognized and supported activity. Community is a term used in various ways, to distinguish an actor, a scale of activity, a spatial setting, a form of network, and a type of process through which carbon reduction objectives can be implemented. In this review the various expectations linked to community-based initiatives are identified and discussed in relation to the range of meanings of community in carbon governance. Working through and with communities is typically expected to better embed individual behavior change, as well as generate social innovations and facilitate the consensual deployment of sustainable energy technologies. Research into the experience of implementing community renewable energy projects is discussed to explore the challenges involved in realizing such outcomes.

The social amplification/attenuation of risk framework: application to climate change

Abstract: The social experience of risk is not confined to the technical definition of risk, that is, the product of probability and magnitude. What human beings perceive as threat to their well-being and how they evaluate probabilities and magnitudes of unwanted consequences is codetermined by values, attitudes, social influences, and cultural identity. This article introduces the social amplification of risk framework (SARF) and applies it to climate change. The SARF is based on the thesis that events pertaining to hazards interact with psychological, social, institutional, and cultural processes in ways that can heighten or attenuate individual and social perceptions of risk and shape risk behavior. Drawing upon the concept of social amplification of risk, this article investigates the mechanisms of amplification and attenuation in the climate change debate: it focuses first on the micro-sociological and psychological literature on amplification and attenuation of individual responses (including behavior) in relation to climate change; and second on the application of functional resonance and common pool concepts to the intensity of societal concern and action, interpreted in the light of the SARF. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 154–169 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.99 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website

Adaptation and risk management

Abstract: Adaptation assessment methods are compatible with the international risk management standard ISO:31000. Risk management approaches are increasingly being recommended for adaptation assessments at both national and local levels. Two orientations toassessmentscancommonly beidentified: top-down and bottom-up, and prescriptive and diagnostic. Combinations of these orientations favor different types of assessments. The choice of orientation can be related to uncertainties in prediction and taking action, in the type of adaptation and in the degree of system stress.Adopting multiple viewpoints istobe encouraged, especially in complex situations.Thebulkofcurrentguidancematerialisconsistentwithtop-downandpredictiveapproaches,thusismostsuitableforriskscopingandidentification. Abroad rangeofmaterialfrom withinand beyond the climatechange literaturecanbeused to select methods to be used in assessing and implementing adaptation. The framing of risk, correct formulation of the questions being investigated and assessment methodology are critical aspects of the scoping phase. Only when these issues have been addressed should be issue of specific methods and tools be addressed. The reorientation of adaptation from an assessment focused solely on anthropogenic climate change to broader issues of vulnerability/resilience, sustainable developmentanddisasterrisk,especiallythroughariskmanagementframework,candraw from existing policy and management understanding in communities, professions and agencies, incorporating existing agendas, knowledge, risks, and issues they already face.  2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 296‐308 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.97

Forest productivity under climate change: a checklist for evaluating model studies

Abstract: Climate change is highly likely to impact on forest productivity over the next century. The direction and magnitude of change are uncertain because many factors are changing simultaneously, such as atmospheric composition, temperature, rainfall, and land use. Simulation models have been widely used to estimate how these interacting factors might combine to alter forest productivity. Such studies have used many different types of models with different underlying assumptions. To evaluate predictions made by such studies, it is essential to understand the type of modelandtheassumptionsused.Inthisarticle,weprovideachecklistforusewhen evaluating modeled estimates of climate change impacts on forest productivity. The checklist highlights the assumptions that we believe are critical in determining model outcomes. Models are classified into different general types, and assumptions relating to effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, water availability, nutrient cycling, and disturbance are discussed. Our main aim is to provide a guide to enable correct interpretation of model projections. The article alsochallengesmodelerstoimprovethequalityofinformationprovidedabouttheir model assumptions.  2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. WIREs Clim Change2011 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.108

Small island developing states.

Abstract: In the international climate change negotiations, the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have emerged as a credible group through the AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island States) and have called for a global temperature rise of 1.5 ◦ C above preindustrial levels. Whatever the outcomes of the negotiations, they are exacerbated by climate change and a rising sea level. Many share common characteristics of small size, high population density, limited land resources, vulnerability to natural hazards, threatened biodiversity, high dependence on tourism, and limited funds and human resources. The suggestions put forward for a research agenda for the SIDS include a comprehensive assessment of the SIDS as a group, a focused attention on oceans, increased development on renewable energy, inclusion of climate adaptation under natural disaster reduction, a strategy of ‘save some islands rather than not to have any’ for some SIDS, and large-scale modular mangrove planting for coastal protection and adaptation to sea-level rise. These suggestions could provide an expanded scope of adaptation for the SIDS. 

History of climate modeling

Abstract: The history of climate modeling begins with conceptual models, followed in the 19th century by mathematical models of energy balance and radiative transfer, as well as simple analog models. Since the 1950s, the principal tools of climate science have been computer simulation models of the global general circulation. From the 1990s to the present, a trend toward increasingly comprehensive coupled models of the entire climate system has dominated the field. Climate model evaluation and intercomparison is changing modeling into a more standardized, modular process, presenting the potential for unifying research and operational aspects of climate science. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 128–139 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.95 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website

Climate change in literature and literary criticism

Abstract: This article provides an overview of climate change in literature, focusing on the representation of climate change in Anglophone fiction. It then evaluates the way in which these fictional representations are critiqued in literary studies, and considers the extent to which the methods and tools that are currently employed are adequate to this new critical task. We explore how the complexity of climate change as both scientific and cultural phenomenon demands a corresponding degree of complexity in fictional representation. For example, when authors represent climate change as a global, networked, and controversial phenomenon, they move beyond simply employing the environment as a setting and begin to explore its impact on plot and character, producing unconventional narrative trajectories and innovations in characterization. Then, such creative complexity asks of literary scholars a reassessment of methods and approaches. For one thing, it may require a shift in emphasis from literary fiction to genre fiction. It also particularly demands that environmental criticism, or ecocriticism, moves beyond its long-standing interest in concepts of 'nature' and 'place', to embrace a new understanding of the local in relation to the global. We suggest, too, that there are synergies to be forged between these revisionary moves in ecocriticism and developments in literary critical theory and historicism, as these critical modes begin to deal with climate change and reimagine themselves in turn. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The fragmentation of the global climate governance architecture

Abstract: The term fragmentation implies that policy domains are marked by a patchwork of public and private institutions that differ in their character, constituencies, spatial scope, subject matter, and objectives. While the degree of fragmentation varies across issue areas and their respective architectures, global climate politics is characterized by an advanced state of institutional diversity. In recent years, scholars have increasingly addressed this emerging phenomenon of international relations. The article finds that the predominant focus of these studies has been on dyadic overlaps, i.e., interlinkages between two institutions, and less on the overarching level of entire architectures and their degree of fragmentation. This goes in particular for research on the global climate change architecture. Many studies have attended to the relationship between the United Nations climate regime and other institutions: multilateral technology partnerships, regimes regulating other environmental domains like ozone or biological diversity, and regimes from non-environmental issue areas like the world trade regime. However, a cross-cutting account of these overlaps which addresses the overall implications of institutional fragmentation on climate change is still missing. As possible areas for further research the article identifies: consequences of fragmentation (e.g., a new division of labor or increased inter-institutional conflict), fragmentation management and conditions of its effectiveness; theory-driven analyses on the reasons of fragmentation within and across policy domains. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 255–270 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.104 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website

Perceptions of climate change worldwide

Abstract: We begin this review with a brief overview of the first published comparative national studies on public attitudes and climate change. We continue by exploring key findings from more recent surveys from three major studies conducted in late 2009. These results are organized into two major sections—the first in reviewing established ground or questions commonly asked of the general public regarding climate change. These questions include willingness to pay to protect the environment, global warming as a serious problem, and willingness to pay to address climate change. The second section continues the review by exploring questions that have been seldom asked or new ground. We look at such topics as—the perceived effects of climate change; when respondents think climate change will be felt; their view of what climate scientists think, and whether they feel their government is doing enough to address the issue. We end this section by reviewing two questions that focus on international relations and the global climate change negotiations—the public's perception of their government's efforts at international cooperation, and which country is most trusted by the public to lead the climate change negotiations. The review concludes with discussions on data limitations and some summary thoughts and future research needs. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:871–885. doi: 10.1002/wcc.146 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Evaluating regional vulnerability to climate change: purposes and methods

Abstract: As the emphasis in climate change research, international negotiations, and developing-country activities has shifted from mitigation to adaptation, vulnerability has emerged as a bridge between impacts on one side and the need for adaptive changes on the other. Still, the term vulnerability remains abstract, its meaning changing with the scale, focus, and purpose of each assessment. Understanding regional vulnerability has advanced over the past several decades, with studies using a combination of indicators, case studies and analogues, stakeholder-driven processes, and scenario-building methodologies. As regions become increasingly relevant scales of inquiry for bridging the aggregate and local, for every analysis, it is perhaps most appropriate to ask three “what” questions: “What/who is vulnerable?,” “What is vulnerability?,” and “Vulnerable to what?” The answers to these questions will yield different definitions of vulnerability as well as different methods for assessing it.

Adapting to crop pest and pathogen risks under a changing climate

Abstract: The need for pest and pathogen management will increase as the intensification of food production proceeds to feed the burgeoning human population. Climate is a significant driver of pest population dynamics, so climate change will require adaptive management strategies to cope with the altered status of pests and pathogens. A hierarchy of analytical tools is required to conduct risk assessments, inform policy and design pest management on scales from regions to landscapes and fields. Such tools include models for predicting potential geographical distributions, seasonal phenology, and population dynamics at a range of spatial and temporal scales. The level of sophistication of such models and databases will be determined by the economic importance of specific species. Many obstacles remain in the way of designing reliable adaptation strategies, and several issues that ensure continuing uncertainty are discussed. Holistic approaches that include nonclimatic drivers of change are needed to address the combination of global change variables. Changed patterns of crop production will determine the pests and pathogens that require greater effort to control. Linked crop-pest models offer the best opportunities for management of important pests and pathogens. Examples of risk assessments for pests and pathogens are illustrated mostly with cases from Australia, and guidelines for adaptation of pest and pathogen management are reviewed. The plethora of species and strains of pests and pathogens demands a parsimonious approach to risk assessment and adaptation, based on identified needs to inform management. Due to some intractable issues the best approach may often be scenario planning to design systems which will be resilient under any global change.

Sources, media, and modes of climate change communication: the role of celebrities

Abstract: This article reviews existing research on the portrayal of climate change within the print media, paying particular attention to the increasing role that celebrities have come to play within popular culture. While this is certainly not a new development, celebrities are increasingly appearing as key voices within the climate change debate, providing a powerful news hook and potential mobilizing agent. Early coverage of climate change was dominated by scientific sources, but as the debate became more institutionalized and politicized a wider variety of competing sources entered the news arena. Yet media prominence is not necessarily a reliable indicator of influence. How issues are framed is of crucial importance and celebrity interventions can be a double-edged sword. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 535–546 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.119 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website

Are adaptation studies effective, and what can enhance their practical impact?

Abstract: In this piece we explore the interface between adaptation research and adaptation policy, planning, and investment. We ask, ‘How is research on adaptation informing the nascent domain of adaptation policy and practice?’ To inform this discussion, we extract a few of the more salient lessons from four different domains of adaptation research: risk assessment and impact response, social vulnerability and adaptive capacity, resilience, and the science of decision making and policy implementation. Through a few select case studies of adaptation planning, we explore the extent to which we see these lessons taking hold in adaptation practice. The cases reviewed suggest that there may be significant differences in the type of research that informs planning in more industrial contexts compared to the developing world. Risk assessment and cost/benefit analysis appear to dominate adaptation planning in the industrialized world, while insights concerning governance, the social and economic constraints to adaptation, and building systemic resilience are featured more in planning documents from the developing world. The focus on risk assessment and associated technological interventions in the industrialized world illustrates the difficulty of addressing underlying structural and cognitive barriers to change, as well as the policy implications of conceptualizing adaptation as an outcome rather than a dynamic process. More broadly, the challenge of adaptation now offers an opportunity for innovative and collaborative research in which networks of academics, policy makers, at-risk populations, and other stakeholders actively participate in understanding the process of adaptation, experimenting in responses to change and learning from that process. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 141–153 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.100 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website

Sea level and climate: measurements and causes of changes

Abstract: We review present-day observations of sea level change and variability at global and regional scales, focusing on the altimetry era starting in the early 1990s. Over the past ∼18-years, the rate of global mean sea level rise has reached 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/year, nearly twice that of the previous decades, although the observed larger sea level rise rate may be influenced by decadal or longer variations in the ocean. Moreover, sea level rates are not geographically uniform; in some regions like the tropical western Pacific, rates are up to 3–4 times higher than the global mean rate. We next discuss the climate-related components of the global mean sea level rise. Over the last ∼18-years, ocean thermal expansion contributes about one third to the observed rise while total land ice (glacier melting plus ice sheet mass loss) contribute the other two third. The spatial trend patterns evidenced over the altimetry period mostly result from nonuniform steric sea level changes (effects of ocean temperature and salinity), largely caused by wind-driven ocean circulation changes. Such patterns are not stationary but oscillate through time on decadal/multidecadal time scale, in response to natural modes of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. We close up this review by briefly discussing future (21st century) sea level rise. Current limited knowledge of the future evolution of the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets leads to high uncertainty on the global mean sea level rise expected for the next 50–100 years. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 647–662 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.139 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Public perceptions and governance of controversial technologies to tackle climate change: nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, wind, and geoengineering

Abstract: The role carbon emissions play in contributing to climate change makes clear the necessity for a global reconsideration of current modes of energy production. In recent years, as concerns over the threats of climate change (CC) have become more acute, four technologies have notably risen to the forefront of academic and public discourse: nuclear power, carbon capture and storage (CCS), wind power, and geoengineering. The particular interest of these four approaches lies in the fact that they reflect both energy production and climate control technologies, are often socially controversial, and present complex challenges of governance. Nuclear and wind power both deserve an important place among the variety of low-carbon energy options. In countries where public acceptance is evaluated, although, support for nuclear energy appears to be conditional upon simultaneous development of other renewable energies alongside a feasible plan to address the disposal of nuclear waste. The Fukushima accident sharply increased public concern about the safety and vulnerability of nuclear reactors. While wind power receives general public support, issues of accommodation can arise when it comes to siting wind farms. Persistent dependency upon carbon-producing energy has made favorable the option of CCS. However, in addition to technical and geological factors, social resistance to the placement of carbon storage units remains a key obstacle. Geoengineering offers the technological capacity to directly act on the climate should levels of atmospheric CO2 become dangerously high. Public perception regarding the risk of climate change can be labile, and the alternatives reviewed here share the characteristic that their technical and political dimensions are intertwined. The variety of options for combining and implementing these technologies, coupled with the inherently time-sensitive nature of CC, underscore the complexity of the endeavor. In order to bridge these various levels of analysis and decision making, and to better understand and integrate people's involvement, exercises in risk governance could be developed at both the national and international levels. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 712–727 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.134 This article is categorized under: Perceptions, Behavior, and Communication of Climate Change > Social Amplification/Attenuation of Climate Risks The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Policies, Instruments, Lifestyles, Behavior

Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability

Abstract: Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is “unequivocal” and ‘very likely’ caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. The task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a ‘prior’. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called ‘Type II errors’ whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Stratospheric temperature trends: our evolving understanding

Abstract: We review the scientific literature since the 1960s to examine the evolution of modeling tools and observations that have advanced understanding of global stratospheric temperature changes. Observations show overall cooling of the stratosphere during the period for which they are available (since the late 1950s and late 1970s from radiosondes and satellites, respectively), interrupted by episodes of warming associated with volcanic eruptions, and superimposed on variations associated with the solar cycle. There has been little global mean temperature change since about 1995. The temporal and vertical structure of these variations are reasonably well explained bymodels that include changes in greenhouse gases, ozone, volcanic aerosols, and solar output, although there are significant uncertainties in the temperature observations and regarding the nature and influence of past changes in stratospheric water vapor. As a companion to a recent WIREs review of tropospheric temperature trends, this article identifies areas of commonality and contrast between the tropospheric and stratospheric trend literature. For example, the increased attention over time to radiosonde and satellite data quality has contributed to better characterization of uncertainty in observed trends both in the troposphere and in the lower stratosphere, and has highlighted the relative deficiency of attention to observations in the middle and upper stratosphere. In contrast to the relatively unchanging expectations of surface and tropospheric warming primarily induced by greenhouse gas increases, stratospheric temperature change expectations have arisen from experiments with a wider variety of model types, showingmore complex trend patterns associated with a greater diversity of forcing agents.

Does climate change knowledge really matter

Abstract: Climate science and climate policy have been tightly linked for more than two decades. Science is supposed to provide the factual basis for action on climate, and a single policy approach to dealing with climate (through the UN Framework Convention process) has been dominant throughout this period. As a result, debates about climate policy and debates about climate science are impossible to disaggregate, and opposition to the prevailing international climate regime is often expressed as distrust of the science. Until new policy options are available that can enfranchise more diverse political constituencies, climate science will continue to exist as a largely political phenomenon. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 475–481 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.126 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website