Showing papers in "World Policy Journal in 2008"

Fighting Pirates: The Pen and the Sword

Abstract: The seizure by Somali pirates on September 25, 2008, of the Faina, a Ukrainian-flagged vessel transporting 33 Russian tanks and depleted uranium ammunition to Kenya for consignment delivery to the Sudan People's Liberation Army was startling in its audacity and haul. Even more alarming, however, was the November hijacking of the 1,000foot supertanker Sinus Star. The Liberianflagged vessel, owned by Saudi Arabia's Aramco, was carrying more than $100 million in oil to the United States when pirates seized the ship and its 25 crew members some 400 miles out to sea, then motored for the Somali coast and dropped anchor. Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was stunned by the capture, which sent shocks through global energy markets. The seizure of a supertanker was unprecedented, and the daring attack so far from shore suggested the pirates were using the shipping industry's open-access automatic identification system (Ais) to intercept merchant ships. Merchant ships on international voyages are required to transmit AIS locational data, but criminal gangs at sea operating commercial equipment can receive these signals as easily as do naval forces and maritime law enforcement and use it to target ships. Since January, more than 97 ships have been hijacked in the dangerous waters off Somalia and Yemen, and the ransom for some vessels can fetch into the millions of dollars. Maritime piracy is experiencing a renaissance not seen since the period of the Barbary pirates. Instability from maritime piracy in the Gulf of Aden is sending ripples throughout the global supply chain, which is already reeling from the collapse of shipping rates brought on by the worldwide economic slowdown. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping most commodities other than oil, has plummeted to its lowest level in six years and has fallen 93 percent from its peak in May 2008. Indeed, the surge in piracy is coming at the worst time for the shipping industry. More problematic, the resurgence is occurring along critical sea lanes: 20,000 ships pass through the Gulf of Aden adjacent to the Indian Ocean each year, transporting cargo that includes 12 percent of the worlds daily oil supply. While it is impossible to eradicate maritime piracy completely, the threat can be greatly reduced if we broaden efforts to work with international partners. Significantly reducing criminal acts at sea in an area that stretches the distance from Miami

Who Will Speak for Islam

Abstract: At the heart of the moving puzzle the world faces over the next quarter century are the diverse Muslim populations, collectively known as the "Global Muslim Community." Spanning the globe and speaking nearly every language, they are united by one faith Islam. Collectively, they make up one-fifth of the world's population and sit on 75 percent of its oil wealth. Understanding the emerging trends of these societies is perhaps the world's leading strategic imperative. But who will speak for Islam in the future on democracy, the role of women, or violence? Over six years ending in 2007, the Gallup organization undertook more than 50,000 interviews (representative of the 1.3 billion Muslims who reside in more than 35 nations with majority or significant Muslim populations) in an effort to explore current trends and examine the future. The results, reflective of more than 90 percent of the world's Muslim community, are the end product of the most comprehensive survey of its kind ever conducted; they defy conventional wisdom and the inevitability of a global conflict even as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan continue. Dealing a blow to the foundations of the "clash of civilizations" theory, our data shows a strong Muslim affinity for democratic values. Far from hating Americans for their freedom, Muslims around the world describe and admire the Western tradition of democratic governance, while seeing their faith as a source of progress and balance. Allowed the political space, leaders drawing both on democracy and Islam's rich tradition will overshadow secular liberals and conservative theocrats as the leaders of tomorrow. These Muslim democrats will appeal to Islam's self-image of justice to argue for minority rights, gender justice, and the rule of law. The focus will be heavily on economic development and job creation through free trade and entrepreneurship. This evolving future will find women at the forefront. Women comprise the majority of university students in several countries, and the percentage of women in Iran, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates (uae), and Egypt that attends university is on a par with that of Western Europe and South Korea. These women tell us that they expect their full rights and see their religion as essential to progress. Instead of a misogynistic corpus of ossified medieval edicts, Muslim women see their sacred law as a vibrant work in progress. They associate shariah compliance with "justice for women,"

The Battle for Africa's Hearts and Minds

Abstract: It was a typical April evening in Ethiopia's capital as I gazed from my hotel room window at the scene below. Shop owners were locking up for the night, people were hurrying home for the evening meal, and the streets were crowded with vehicles of all shapes, sizes, and degrees of road worthiness, including the ubiquitous "blue donkeys" Soviet-era Lada taxis that are a common sight around Addis Ababa. With two crisp pops, followed immediately by thunderous explosions, I was jolted back to reality. Terrorists had struck again. The next day's press would report that three people died and more than a dozen were wounded

The Middle East's Generation Facebook

Abstract: It's October 2033 and Shahinaz AbdelSalam, 55, has just been appointed Egypt's first female interior minister. She's about to address the nation by live holofeed to explain why she's accepted a post that as a young woman she'd always dreamed would be abolished because, in the Egypt where she grew up, interior minister was synonymous with "chief torturer." Her office is in New Cairo, an area which was once desert but over the past few years has buzzed with university campuses and businesses freed from the suffocation of downtown Cairo. But her address to the

The Run on Rice

Abstract: This year has brought vivid television images of food riots in poor countries and unpleasant surprises at the supermarket checkout counter in rich ones. Is the era of cheap food really over? By mid 2008, U.S. dollar prices for food grains had more than doubled compared with just two years ago. Over half of the increase occurred in the first six months of this year. The price of rice a staple food for half the world s population jumped to $907 per ton in April, almost triple November 2007 levels. In response, major grain exporting countries introduced export bans, sending importers nervously searching world markets to secure supplies. Food prices are still only around half what they were during the worst of the great world food crisis of 1973-74 in inflation-adjusted terms, and no more than their average during the 1960s (according to our calculations that measure food prices relative to an index of global manufactured export prices). But this will hardly be of comfort to the hundreds of millions of poor people with less to eat today, who are experiencing a sharp fall in their already meager living standards. So what are the causes of the present surge in world food prices, in particular for rice? And what can be done about it? Many explanations have been put forward for the hike in food prices, some better supported than others. One popular notion is that prices are rising because of rapid income growth and rising food demand in Asia, particularly in China and India. But this idea which, incidentally, neatly puts the blame for rising prices on developing countries does not square too well with the facts. Growth in Asian rice consumption has been slowing for decades despite rapid economic growth, falling from 2-3 percent a year in the 1970s and 1980s to only 0.9 percent a year so far in the 2000s. (Annual growth in overall world consumption so far this decade is roughly 1 percent.) A variant of this argument is that Asians are upgrading their diets and eating more meat, which is indirectly boosting demand for animal feed. This certainly appears to be true for oilseeds like soybean meal, demand for which has been rising rapidly in China's poultry and livestock industry. But it is much less clear that it has been boosting grain demand. Rice is not widely used for this purpose. And growth in Asian demand for other grains for feedstuff has been falling not rising due to improved efficiency in use. Such growth fell from a staggering 12-13 percent a year in the

Paths of Progress in Africa

Abstract: With the benefit of hindsight, 25 years ago the most accurate summary forecast of Africa as it stands now would have been stagnation. Of course in detail much has changed, but Africa has not experienced the profound transformations of Asia, or other emerging regions. A decade ago, there was considerable excitement at a new generation of African leadership: Thabo Mbeki in South Africa, Meles Zenawi in Ethiopia, and Yoweri Museveni in Uganda were seen as the spearheads for a democratic African Renaissance. There is no such excitement

Biofuels, Neither Saviour nor Scam The Case for a Selective Strategy

Abstract: two years ago, yet now they are receiving a lot of publicity—much of it negative. Initially, political and business circles touted the potential benefits of biofuels; it was a speechwriter’s dream. Here was an energy source that promised jobs, rural revitalization, and greater independence from foreign oil producers. At a time of growing anxiety over global warming, biofuels promised a clean, liquid transport fuel that would help reduce levels of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report in early 2007, an estimated 1.8–4 degree Celsius rise in global temperatures is likely by the end of the century, if no dramatic change in energy supply and use occurs globally. The report further confirmed that, given the current state of scientific knowledge, it is 90 percent certain that the emissions caused by humans are responsible for the increasing warming of the planet’s surface. Studies of climate patterns conclude with increased certainty that a continuing rise in greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere will most likely result in a variety of alarming—and quite possibly catastrophic —climate impacts. In European Union member states, Japan, and a number of other countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, concern about climate change has been a powerful policy driver for the biofuels industry. (Currently, transport fuels account for about a quarter of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions.) Meanwhile, with soaring gas prices and U.S. troops engaged in a war overseas, biofuels promised the added benefit of a secure, domestic energy source. The global transport system is almost entirely dependent on petroleum derivatives, and thus highly vulnerable. Leaving aside the complicated question of peak oil, a number of factors increasingly make reliance on petroleum a risky proposition: petro-states such as Iran and Venezuela may threaten to cut production, continued conflict in the oil-rich Middle East may impede the flow of oil, and low global refining capacity creates dangerous bottlenecks in the current fuel system that leaves us susceptible to natural disasters and malicious attacks. Add to this a moral component: the world is all but certain to struggle with the intertwined challenges of energy security and climate change, but it is humanity’s poor who will suffer most, as they tend to live in regions most vulnerable to extreme weather events, often lack the means for secure shelter and transport, and are most affected by increased food prices and shrinking energy supplies. Globally, some 2.4 billion people rely on traditional biomass and fossil fuel sources (firewood, dung, charcoal) for energy; and some 1.6 billion lack access to electricity. Without new energy solutions, 1.4 billion people will still lack electricity by 2030, the majority living in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Some regions, Suzanne Hunt is an independent consultant to the U.S. Department of Energy and the Inter-American Development Bank, among other clients. She was director of the Worldwatch Institute’s bioenergy program and has done work for the Global Bioenergy Partnership, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, and the National Resources Defense Council.

Africa: Many Hills to Climb

Abstract: Africa in 2033 will look somewhat like Africa in 2008: it will still face challenges, but different challenges than today. Internal wars, such as in Sudan, will no longer be the primary threats to the security of Africa's populations. Instead, transnational organized crime syndicates and radical Islamist groups will become the greatest threats to civilian life in Africa. But there are positives too: economic growth will continue, democracy will spread, though its progress may be halting and unpredictable. Today, some 50 years after the beginning of the independence era, Africa is far more complicated than the image of Africa in the popular imagination. All too often, Africa is still seen as the basket-case continent of Darfiir and Zimbabwe, of "blood diamonds," "resource curses," and "poverty traps." In reality, however, Africa is a humdrum continent, and is part of the general trend towards economic and political progress shared by other parts of the world.

How Trade Became Geopolitics

Abstract: Since the World Trade Organization (WTO) was first created in 1995, trade issues have ceased to be technical. Instead, they have become highly political, not only because trade issues have changed but also because the geopolitical context in which these exchanges take place has been altered. Why have trade issues become so profoundly politicized? How do the various actors, and particularly Europe, react to this new situation? These are two critical questions that beg for answers. The creation of the WTO in 1995 in the wake of the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT), which was set up after World War II, was a direct response to three fundamental changes in the world order.

Obama & Latin America: Magic or Realism?

Abstract: 101 Latin America and the Caribbean are no exception to the all but universal global applause for the election of Barack Obama as the forty-fourth president of the United States. The 33 developing countries of the Western Hemisphere broadly welcomed Obama’s election to the White House. Indeed, there is no part of the world outside of Africa where the election of a black U.S. president has greater symbolic value. Latin America, which has its own dark history of slavery and racism, is home to a large African diaspora, and as much as one-third of the region’s 550 million inhabitants is of African descent, including a large fraction of the population in Brazil, the vast majority of the Caribbean, and smaller communities throughout the Andes and Central America. Coupled with the fact that Latin American countries generally prefer Democratic presidents (for reasons that have as much to do with unpleasant Cold War memories of Nixon and Reagan as any specific policy agenda), Obama’s emergence was a welcome event. In a BBC poll of Latin American countries, which included opinion surveys in Brazil, Mexico, and Panama, the respondents heavily favored Obama over his opponent, Senator John McCain, and about half thought that their nation’s relations with the United States would improve as a result of his election. About 60 percent of Mexicans added that it would fundamentally change their view of the United States, and slightly less than half of all Panamanians and about one-third of Brazilians agreed. While Obama’s election was hailed by virtually all the presidents of Latin America and the Caribbean, the specific responses reflected the idiosyncrasies of each country— perhaps nowhere more than Brazil, where six candidates in municipal elections legally changed their names to either Barack or Obama in an attempt to capitalize on the local popularity of the American candidate. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a leftist who had burnished his credentials as a pragmatist by cozying up to the Bush administration, placed Obama’s candidacy in a regional context, saying, “In the same way that Brazil elected a metalworker [referring to himself], Bolivia an Indian, Venezuela a Chavez, and Paraguay a bishop, I believe it will be an extraordinary thing if in the biggest economy in the world a black is elected president.” Brazilian foreign minister Celso Amorim agreed, saying “We aren’t going to deny that the Brazilian government had a good, pragmatic relationship with the Bush government, but now the relationship can be Daniel P. Erikson is senior associate for U.S. policy at the Inter-American Dialogue and the author of The Cuba Wars: Fidel Castro, the United States, and the Next Revolution (Bloomsbury Press, 2008).

Diamonds, Development, and Democracy

Abstract: Gaborone, Botswana, is the capital of a country which 40 years ago was ranked as the poorest in the world. Today, as one of the most successful economies in Africa, it could represent the continent’s future. Nowhere is that potential for the next quar ter century more graphically demonstrated than in a new glass and concrete structure in the heart of Gaborone. At this $83million state-of the-art facility, 39 machines com bining the latest software and precision op tical systems are the most technically ad vanced in the world for the sorting and valuing of Botswana’s most important re source and the source of its prosperity— gem diamonds. With Batswana technicians at the controls, they measure the color, quality, and shape of rough diamonds at speeds of up to 15 diamonds a second, or 30 million carats a year, with an accuracy and consis tency unequalled anywhere in the world. This facility is transforming Gaborone into one of the leading centers of the world dia mond industry and the largest diamond sorter in the world.

Tibet: Plateau in Peril

Abstract: Over the past six months, demonstrations in Tibetan ethnic areas of China and the ongoing negotiations between representatives of the Dalai Lama in India and Chinese government officials in Beijing have given Tibet a higher profile than at any time over the last decade. But beyond politics, there is another even more important crisis brewing on the Tibetan Plateau: a looming environmental meltdown.

The Shifting Face of Violence

Abstract: ly peaceful times. Organized violence was throughout most of history, both in absolute and relative terms, a much more prevalent part of mankind’s daily life than today— from antiquity to the twentieth century. European integration has pacified the old continent. The creation of the United Nations has provided us with an instrument of collective security that can, if permitted, work. The threat of an all-out nuclear exchange has receded. Still, conflict, in its traditional form of organized violence between two states or coalitions of states, continues to exist. Examples include the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the U.S. campaigns against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, and the possibility of a U.S.-Israeli attack against Iran’s emerging nuclear capabilities. A significant amount of the world’s military power and arms procurement is still invested in coping with such contingencies. It cannot be excluded that the risk of traditional conflict might grow again in the years to come. Should the United States—in many respects the world’s de facto hegemon—be perceived as being increasingly tied down in Iraq, Afghanistan, and possibly other critical hot spots, and thus be seen as unable (or unwilling) to react to new challenges, then the temptation would develop for many to seize the initiative and create military faits accomplis. One may argue that the Iranian nuclear program is just such an attempt. Most conflicts in the twenty-first century, however, are no longer of a traditional nature. They are no longer fought between states, but between a government and such forces as politically or ethnically based militias and armed bands, guerrilla or terrorist organizations, clans, warlords, organized communal groups, or simply criminal gangs. An increasing number of conflicts are even being conducted between such groups themselves—with little, or only indirect, government involvement. The phenomenon of disintegrating, failed, or faltering states—from the Western Balkans and Somalia to West Africa and Darfur—has led, particularly in the second half of the 1990s, to violence at a level unheard of for quite some time. We are confronted by a multiplication of actors, issues, and means, leading to new conflict patterns and an increase of conflicting matters at stake. The trend will continue to build in the next 25 years. Such non-traditional conflicts, moreover, prove difficult to extinguish. The most striking example is clearly the ongoing strife between Israel and the Palestinians. Theodor H. Winkler is the director of the Centre for Democratic Control of Armed Forces in Geneva with the rank of ambassador and previously served as head of the Division for International Security Policy of the Swiss Department of Defence.

After Georgia: Back to the Future

Abstract: It is too soon to say for sure who or what ignited the August clash between Russia and Georgia, but already conspiracy scenarios abound, some as dark and convoluted as the infamous gorges of the Caucasus. To Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, the true culprits were most probably the Americans who encouraged Georgia's unprovoked attack on breakaway South Ossetia. As evidence, Putin cites the close ties between Senator John McCain and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, implying that the GOP hopeful may have recklessly fanned the crisis to further his own election.

North Korea: 20 Years of Solitude

Abstract: © 2008 World Policy Institute 75 With the American people thirsting for a new foreign policy, transcending the aggrieved, insular doctrines of “regime change,” “pre-emptive war” and the “global war on terror,” a breakthrough might be found in a most unlikely place—the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. North Korea’s alienation from the world community is a grave threat to peace in East Asia. But with the right kind of American leadership, North Korea can be coaxed back into concord with its Asia-Pacific neighbors. The new Obama administration has a chance to make history by ending the 60-year conflict that divides the Korean peninsula, and reversing the two decades of solitude that has exiled an entire nation from the global community. After 20 years, it is time to acknowledge that the conventional strategies— belligerent quarantine and ambivalent engagement—have failed to achieve positive outcomes for the United States, East Asia, or the North Korean people. America is now at a crossroads of opportunity to reformulate our basic political strategy and alter the underlying nature of U.S.-North Korean relations—as opposed to repeating the pendulum swings of the Bush-Clinton-Bush years. However disagreeable, the leadership in Pyongyang is a reality. Diplomatic progress will only take place once the reality of the Kim Jong-il regime is accepted as the starting point of change.

Resources and Rivalry in the 'Stans

Abstract: Even now, few people in the West understand just how traumatic the collapse of the Soviet Union was for a whole generation in Russia and the former Soviet republics The sense of humiliation of a significant part of the Russian elite remains acute, and is even now being worked out through military maneuvers on the streets of South Ossetia And for many ordinary people, particularly those who live in remote, underdeveloped republics, like those of Central Asia, the Soviet collapse did not open up a future of democratic prosperity, but instead introduced millions to a rapid collapse in living standards and renewed political oppression The next 25 years threaten equally rapid transformation, accompanied by political, technological, and economic upheavals Geopolitical competition between Russia and China, political oppression and political change, economic decline interspersed with remarkable prosperity, all threaten to make life in Central Asia a dangerous mixture of conflict and change over the next decades There will be pockets of enormous prosperity, particularly in resource-rich states such as Kazakhstan By 2033, Astana, the windswept Kazakh capital, will be a routine destination for the business world, drawn as much by its role as a financial hub as by its vital uranium deposits and oil fields Its glitzy hotels will be filled with Chinese and Iranian investors, seeking an outlet for their capital in increasingly scarce mineral resources In the bars and clubs, UN peacekeepers will make the most of their rest and relaxation allowance after weeks patrolling the disputed Russo-Kazakh border But war will seem far away under the bright lights of Astana The worst of the civil war in Uzbekistan will be over, Turkmenistan will have settled down somewhat after the latest coup, and even Kyrgyzstan will be experiencing some unusual political stability Astana s liberal investment regime and famous nightlife have made up for a miserable climate, made even worse by 25 years of climate change The winter winds eventually became so unbearable that the president ordered the construction of a giant dome over the city center, and by 2030, executives will relax among the palm trees and artificial beaches in the always sunny botanic gardens A new construction boom has begun, fueled by new discoveries of minerals and Caspian oil The workers on the construction sites, however, are not Kazakhs, who increasingly prefer to spend their time in Gstaad and

Rethinking U.s. Policy in Afghanistan

Abstract: On a recent trip to southern Afghanistan, I befriended a jovial security guard while waiting for an interview with Kandahar's provincial governor. The guard invited me to visit an "important friend" whom he thought I would be pleased to meet. "My friend is a malik" he proclaimed proudly, using a title that in Afghanistan refers to a traditional community leader. I accepted the offer, and later that day we hired a driver and set off for the countryside, past the pomegranate orchards and the vineyards, into a stony, barren landscape. After about an hour we stopped in front of a well-kept compound in an anonymous mud-brick village. A servant opened the gate and led us through the garden into a large living room. A gracious elder entered the room. He was tall and slender, and his wavy white beard and piercing eyes gave him an imposing look. We exchanged greetings and sat down on an intricately woven silk rug. The malik asked me a few questions about myself. Then he introduced his lineage, and said nonchalantly: "You know, half my family is Taliban." I nearly choked on a sip of green tea. As the malik continued to talk, I listened carefully: "Here in the south, whenever people see foreign armies taking over, they want to fight them. I don't blame those who join the Taliban. At least the Taliban are Afghans, they're Pashtun, they're kin." He paused for a moment, and added: "I'm not a Talib. But I want the occupation to end."

Order v. Law in Pakistan

Abstract: Whit Mason is currently based in southern Afghanistan as Provincial Justice Coordinator for the United Nations. He is director of the Program on Justice in Peace-building and Development in the Centre for Interdisciplinary Studies of Law in the Law Faculty of the University of New South Wales, and a non-resident fellow of the West Asia program of the Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney. He is the author, with lain King, of Peace at Any Price: How the World Failed Kosovo.

Congo: Between Hope and Despair

Abstract: CONGO—In the middle of a schoolyard in this war-torn corner of eastern Congo, a village of fragile tarpaulin has sprung up amid the weed-choked gravel. Surrounded by children in ragged clothing, Bonaparte Kananzo, a farmer, steps forward to explain what has brought the local population, now refugees in their own country, to this pass. “We arrived here at the beginning of February,” explains Kananzo, who says that some 1,000-plus villagers trekked here through the lush mountains of North Kivu province fleeing fighting between forces loyal to the government of Congo’s president, Joseph Kabila, and the army of renegade general Laurent Nkunda. An ethnic Tutsi, Nkunda leads the Congres National pour la Defense du Peuple (National Congress for the Defence of the People, CNDP), a politico-military organization. “The war in Kivu brought a lot of insecurity to our town, a lot of violence against women and other things,” says Kananzo. “People are afraid to return home.” It has been two years since the international community, led by the United States and the European Union, spent tens of millions of dollars organizing the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) first democratic elections in 40 years, which solidified Joseph Kabila’s rule and marked the end of the main phase of Congo’s civil war. The war was a conflict which, according to a report released in January by the International Rescue Committee relief organization, killed an estimated 5.4 million people between August 1998 and April 2007— many from health-related concerns caused by the social and economic disruption of the ongoing conflict. Since the formal end of Congo’s 1998–2002 civil war, about 2.1 million have died from similar causes, the report said, with, at present, some 45,000 dying monthly. As if to underline the gravity of Kananzo’s words—that intense combat and attendant atrocities, including widespread rape and the forced recruitment of child soldiers, have succeeded in emptying whole villages—the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimates that, since 2003, some 800,000 people have been displaced by fighting in North Kivu out of a population of 4.2 million, or roughly one in five individuals. In addition to the CNDP and Congolese government forces, two other armed groups operate and frequently clash in the region: the government’s local paramilitary allies such as the Patriotes Resistants Congolais (Congolese Resistance Patriots, PARECO), and the Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda (Democratic Forces for the Michael Deibert is the author of Notes from the Last Testament: The Struggle for Haiti (Seven Stories Press, 2005). He has reported on Africa for a variety of publications since 2007 and served as the Democratic Republic of Congo correspondent for the Inter Press Service.

The Near-Death of Democracy

Abstract: in 1992, I argued that two seemingly antithetical developments the globalization and centralization of the market economy under the aegis of the American consumer monolith ("Me World"), and the fracturing and re-tribalizing of nation states in favor of anti-modern religious and cultural insurgents ("Jihad") were actually closely connected to one another. Centripetal forces driven by the consumer economy and centrifugal forces driven by antipathy to the consumer economy manifested the same destructive logic.

To Russia with Love A Plea for Normalcy

Abstract: A Plea for Normalcy Isaac Shapiro Isaac Shapiro has served as a longtime partner of the law firm ofSkadden Arps Slate Meagher & Flom, helping to establish its foreign office network. From 1959 to 1974 he served as an adjunct professor of Soviet law at New York University Law School and in 2000 taught Russian law at Columbia Law School. In 1962, he wrote, with the late professor John N. Hazard of Columbia, the landmark The Soviet Legal System: Post-Stalin Documentation and Historical Commentary.

An Unstoppable Arms Trade

Abstract: first glance, the international arms trade seems to be one of those problems that will always be with us, like death and taxes. But just as life can be prolonged and tax rates can be reduced, the traffic in weapons can be reined in, given the political will to do so, as I first suggested in two contributions to World Policy Journal the first, "Curbing the Arms Trade: From Rhetoric to Restraint" in the spring of 1992, and "Why Sell Arms?" a year later.