scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

Did you find this useful? Give us your feedback

Figures (8)
Citations
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
The global burden of chronic and hidden hunger: Trends and determinants

[...]

Theda Gödecke1, Alexander J. Stein, Matin Qaim1•
University of Göttingen1
01 Jun 2018-Global Food Security
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use a more comprehensive metric, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), to quantify the burden of hunger and show related trends, showing that economic growth was a major determinant of reducing the hunger burden.

155 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Substanzkonsum und substanzbezogene Störungen in Deutschland im Jahr 2012

[...]

Alexander Pabst, Ludwig Kraus1, Elena Gomes de Matos, Daniela Piontek•
Stockholm University1
23 Dec 2013-Suchttherapie
TL;DR: The high prevalence of substance use disorders associated with alcohol and tobacco emphasize the urgency of implementing effective prevention measures and Disorders associated with prescription drugs should be given more attention.
Abstract: Aims: To examine prevalences, patterns and disorders associated with the use of alcohol, tobacco, illegal drugs and prescription drugs. Methods: The sample of the 2012 Epidemiological Survey of Substance Abuse (ESA) was randomly drawn from population registers and consisted of 9 084 individuals aged 18 to 64 years. A mixed-mode design including questionnaires, telephone and Internet interviews was applied. The response rate was 53.6 %. Results: Based on the past 30 days 57.3 % of respondents reported low-risk alcohol consumption whereas 14.2 % reported risky consumption. Overall, 30.2 % reported having smoked within this period. The 12-months prevalence of illegal substance use was 4.5 % for cannabis, 0.8 % for cocaine and 0.7 % for amphetamines. Analgesics were the most prevalent prescription drugs used within the past 12 months (61.9 %). Rates of DSM-IV substance dependence were estimated at 3.4 % for alcohol, 10.8 % for tobacco, 0.5 % for cannabis, 0.2 % for cocaine, 0.1 % for amphetamines and 3.4 % for analgesics. Conclusions: The high prevalence of substance use disorders associated with alcohol and tobacco emphasize the urgency of implementing effective prevention measures. Disorders associated with prescription drugs should be given more attention.

155 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
The need to advance nutrition education in the training of health care professionals and recommended research to evaluate implementation and effectiveness

[...]

Penny M. Kris-Etherton1, Sharon R. Akabas2, Connie W. Bales3, Bruce R. Bistrian4, Lynne T. Braun5, Marilyn S. Edwards6, Celia Laur7, Carine M. Lenders8, Matthew D Levy9, Carole A. Palmer10, Charlotte A. Pratt11, Sumantra Ray7, Cheryl L. Rock12, Edward Saltzman10, Douglas L. Seidner13, Linda Van Horn14 •
Pennsylvania State University1, Columbia University2, Duke University3, Harvard University4, Rush University Medical Center5, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston6, Medical Research Council7, Boston University8, Georgetown University9, Tufts University10, National Institutes of Health11, University of California, San Diego12, Vanderbilt University13, Northwestern University14
01 May 2014-The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors report the present status of nutrition and physical activity education for health care professionals, evaluate the current pedagogic models, and highlight the urgent need to realign and synergize these models to reflect evidence-based and outcomes-focused education.

155 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Towards achieving energy for sustainable development in Nigeria

[...]

Sunday Olayinka Oyedepo1•
Covenant University1
01 Jun 2014-Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the perspective of energy efficiency and renewable energy in the making of strategies for a sustainable development in Nigeria, which involve energy savings on the demand side, efficiency improvements in the energy production, and replacement of fossil fuels by various sources of renewable energy.
Abstract: The importance of energy availability in the economic growth, social and political development of every nation cannot be overemphasized. Affordable and reliable energy availability is the precondition for sustainable development. Sustainable development calls for an efficient, reliable and decentralized energy economy, based on local and clean energy sources, in which the price paid by the consumer will reflect the real cost of energy products to the economy. There is clear evidence that Nigeria is blessed with abundant resources of fossil fuels as well as renewable energy resources. The major challenge is inefficient utilization of energy in the country. There is no doubt that the present power crisis afflicting Nigeria will persist unless the government diversifies her energy sources and adopt new available technologies to reduce energy wastages and save cost. This study examines the perspective of energy efficiency and renewable energy in the making of strategies for a sustainable development in Nigeria. Such strategies involve energy savings on the demand side, efficiency improvements in the energy production, and replacement of fossil fuels by various sources of renewable energy. Factors that need to be considered in the shift to its sustainable energy future are examined in this article.

155 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Estimation of global and regional incidence and prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysms 1990 to 2010.

[...]

Uchechukwu K.A. Sampson1, Paul Norman2, F. Gerald R. Fowkes3, Victor Aboyans4, Yanna Song1, Frank E. Harrell1, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar5, Mohsen Naghavi5, Julie O. Denenberg6, Mary M. McDermott7, Michael H. Criqui6, George A. Mensah8, Majid Ezzati9, Majid Ezzati5, Christopher J L Murray5 •
Vanderbilt University Medical Center1, University of Western Australia2, University of Edinburgh3, French Institute of Health and Medical Research4, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation5, University of California, San Diego6, Northwestern University7, National Institutes of Health8, Imperial College London9
01 Mar 2014-Global heart
TL;DR: Prevalence was higher in developed versus developing nations, and the rates within each development stratum decreased between 1990 and 2010, while regional prevalence increased in Oceania, tropical Latin America, Asia Pacific high income, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Central SSA, South Asia, Western SSA and Central Asia.
Abstract: The global burden of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has not been studied previously. Such information is important given the emergence of cardiovascular diseases in developing countries. We conducted a systematic literature review and estimated the global and regional incidence and prevalence of AAA in 21 world regions by age and sex. The search for prevalence and incidence of AAA using standard clinical and epidemiological terms was conducted using MEDLINE (1950 to 2010), EMBASE (1980 to 2010), AMED (1985 to 2010), CINAHL (1982 to 2010), and LILACS (2008 to 2010). Data abstracted from the systematic review served as priors for Bayesian meta-regression analyses. The analysis drew from 26 high-quality studies to estimate AAA prevalence and incidence. In 1990, the global age-specific prevalence rate per 100,000 ranged from 8.43 (95% CI: 7.03 to 10.14) in the 40 to 44 years age group to 2,422.53 (95% CI: 2,298.63 to 2,562.25) in the 75 to 79 years age group; the corresponding range in 2010 was 7.88 (95% CI: 6.54 to 9.59) to 2,274.82 (95% CI: 2,149.77 to 2,410.17). Prevalence was higher in developed versus developing nations, and the rates within each development stratum decreased between 1990 and 2010. Globally, the age-specific annual incidence rate per 100,000 in 1990 ranged from 0.89 (95% CI: 0.66 to 1.17) in 40 to 44 years age group to 176.08 (95% CI: 162.72 to 190.28) in the 75 to 79 years age group. In 2010, this range was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.61 to 1.11) to 164.57 (95% CI: 152.20 to 178.78). The highest prevalence in 1990 was in Australasia and North America high income regions: 382.65 (95% CI: 356.27 to 410.88) and 300.59 (95% CI: 280.93 to 321.54), respectively. Australasia had the highest prevalence in 2010, although the prevalence decreased to 310.27 (95% CI: 289.01 to 332.94). Regional prevalence increased in Oceania, tropical Latin America, Asia Pacific high income, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Central SSA, South Asia, Western SSA, and Central Asia. AAA global prevalence and incidence rates have decreased over the last 20 years. However, rising rates in some regions highlight the need for policies to enhance global disease surveillance and prevention.

155 citations

References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

Related Papers (5)
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
Rafael Lozano, Mohsen Naghavi, Kyle J Foreman  +193 more
Global burden of hypertension: analysis of worldwide data

[...]

15 Jan 2005-The Lancet
Patricia M. Kearney, Patricia M. Kearney, Megan Whelton, Kristi Reynolds, Paul Muntner, Paul K. Whelton, Jiang He 
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
The Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure: the JNC 7 report.

[...]

21 May 2003-JAMA
Aram V. Chobanian, George L. Bakris, Henry R. Black, William C. Cushman, Lee A. Green, Joseph L. Izzo, Daniel W. Jones, Barry J. Materson, Suzanne Oparil, Jackson T. Wright, Edward J. Roccella 
2013 ESH/ESC Guidelines for the management of arterial hypertension: The Task Force for the management of arterial hypertension of the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) and of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC).

[...]

21 Jul 2013-European Heart Journal
Giuseppe Mancia, Robert Fagard, Krzysztof Narkiewicz, Josep Redon, Alberto Zanchetti, Michael Böhm, Thierry Christiaens, Renata Cifkova, Guy De Backer, Anna F. Dominiczak, Maurizio Galderisi, Diederick E. Grobbee, Tiny Jaarsma, Paulus Kirchhof, Sverre E. Kjeldsen, Stéphane Laurent, Athanasios J. Manolis, Peter M. Nilsson, Luis M. Ruilope, Roland E. Schmieder, Per Anton Sirnes, Peter Sleight, Margus Viigimaa, Bernard Waeber, Faiez Zannad, Michel Burnier, Ettore Ambrosioni, Mark Caufield, Antonio Coca, Michael H. Olsen, Costas Tsioufis, Philippe van de Borne, José Luis Zamorano, Stephan Achenbach, Helmut Baumgartner, Jeroen J. Bax, Héctor Bueno, Veronica Dean, Christi Deaton, Çetin Erol, Roberto Ferrari, David Hasdai, Arno W. Hoes, Juhani Knuuti, Philippe Kolh, Patrizio Lancellotti, Aleš Linhart, Petros Nihoyannopoulos, Massimo F Piepoli, Piotr Ponikowski, Juan Tamargo, Michal Tendera, Adam Torbicki, William Wijns, Stephan Windecker, Denis Clement, Thierry C. Gillebert, Enrico Agabiti Rosei, Stefan D. Anker, Johann Bauersachs, Jana Brguljan Hitij, Mark J. Caulfield, Marc De Buyzere, Sabina De Geest, Geneviève Derumeaux, Serap Erdine, Csaba Farsang, Christian Funck-Brentano, Vjekoslav Gerc, Giuseppe Germanò, Stephan Gielen, Herman Haller, Jens Jordan, Thomas Kahan, Michel Komajda, Dragan Lovic, Heiko Mahrholdt, Jan Östergren, Gianfranco Parati, Joep Perk, Jorge Polónia, Bogdan A. Popescu, Zeljko Reiner, Lars Rydén, Yuriy Sirenko, Alice Stanton, Harry A.J. Struijker-Boudier, Charalambos Vlachopoulos, Massimo Volpe, David A. Wood 
Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.