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Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Citations
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Journal Article•DOI•
Satellite-based ground PM 2.5 estimation using timely structure adaptive modeling

[...]

Xin Fang1, Bin Zou1, Xiaoping Liu2, Troy Sternberg3, Liang Zhai •
Central South University1, Sun Yat-sen University2, University of Oxford3
01 Dec 2016-Remote Sensing of Environment
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a timely structure adaptive modeling (TSAM) method for satellite-based ground PM 2.5 estimation by considering the timely variations of modeling predictors and magnitude of predictors at respective optimal spatial scales.

154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Indian annual ambient air quality standard is achievable by completely mitigating emissions from household sources.

[...]

Sourangsu Chowdhury1, Sourangsu Chowdhury2, Sagnik Dey2, Sarath K. Guttikunda, Ajay Pillarisetti1, Kirk R. Smith1, Larry Di Girolamo3 •
University of California, Berkeley1, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi2, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign3
28 May 2019-Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
TL;DR: The estimated ambient exposure reductions that result and subsequent health benefits of seven different scenarios that mirror plausible mitigation policies to address household energy needs currently met by biomass combustion for cooking and water- and space heating, and by kerosene for lighting are estimated.
Abstract: Exposures to ambient and household fine-particulate matter (PM2.5) together are among the largest single causes of premature mortality in India according to the Global Burden of Disease Studies (GBD). Several recent investigations have estimated that household emissions are the largest contributor to ambient PM2.5 exposure in the country. Using satellite-derived district-level PM2.5 exposure and an Eulerian photochemical dispersion model CAMx (Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions), we estimate the benefit in terms of population exposure of mitigating household sources--biomass for cooking, space- and water-heating, and kerosene for lighting. Complete mitigation of emissions from only these household sources would reduce India-wide, population-weighted average annual ambient PM2.5 exposure by 17.5, 11.9, and 1.3%, respectively. Using GBD methods, this translates into reductions in Indian premature mortality of 6.6, 5.5, and 0.6%. If PM2.5 emissions from all household sources are completely mitigated, 103 (of 597) additional districts (187 million people) would meet the Indian annual air-quality standard (40 μg m-3) compared with baseline (2015) when 246 districts (398 million people) met the standard. At 38 μg m-3, after complete mitigation of household sources, compared with 55.1 μg m-3 at baseline, the mean annual national population-based concentration would meet the standard, although highly polluted areas, such as Delhi, would remain out of attainment. Our results support expansion of programs designed to promote clean household fuels and rural electrification to achieve improved air quality at regional scales, which also has substantial additional health benefits from directly reducing household air pollution exposures.

154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Common risk factors for chronic non-communicable diseases among older adults in China, Ghana, Mexico, India, Russia and South Africa: the study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) wave 1

[...]

Fan Wu, Yanfei Guo, Somnath Chatterji1, Yang Zheng, Nirmala Naidoo1, Yong Jiang2, Richard B. Biritwum3, Alfred Yawson3, Nadia Minicuci4, Nadia Minicuci3, Aarón Salinas-Rodríguez, Betty Manrique-Espinoza, Tamara Maximova5, Karl Peltzer6, Karl Peltzer7, Karl Peltzer8, Nancy Phaswana-Mafuya8, Nancy Phaswana-Mafuya9, J. Josh Snodgrass10, Elizabeth A. Thiele, Nawi Ng11, Paul Kowal12, Paul Kowal1 •
World Health Organization1, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention2, University of Ghana3, National Research Council4, Russian Academy5, University of Limpopo6, Mahidol University7, Human Sciences Research Council8, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University9, University of Oregon10, Umeå University11, University of Newcastle12
06 Feb 2015-BMC Public Health
TL;DR: The baseline information on the magnitude of the problem of risk factors provided by this study can help countries and health policymakers to set up interventions addressing the global non-communicable disease epidemic.
Abstract: Background: Behavioral risk factors such as tobacco use, unhealthy diet, insufficient physical activity and the harmful use of alcohol are known and modifiable contributors to a number of NCDs and health mediators. The purpose of this paper is to describe the distribution of main risk factors for NCDs by socioeconomic status (SES) among adults aged 50 years and older within a country and compare these risk factors across six lower- and upper-middle income countries. Methods: The study population in this paper draw from SAGE Wave 1 and consisted of adults aged 50-plus from China (N=13,157), Ghana (N=4,305), India (N=6,560), Mexico (N=2,318), the Russian Federation (N=3,938) and South Africa (N=3,836). Seven main common risk factors for NCDs were identified: daily tobacco use, frequent heavy drinking, low level physical activity, insufficient vegetable and fruit intake, high risk waist-hip ratio, obesity and hypertension. Multiple risk factors were also calculated by summing all these risk factors. Results: The prevalence of daily tobacco use ranged from 7.7% (Ghana) to 46.9% (India), frequent heavy drinker was the highest in China (6.3%) and lowest in India (0.2%), and the highest prevalence of low physical activity was in South Africa (59.7%). The highest prevalence of respondents with high waist-to-hip ratio risk was 84.5% in Mexico, and the prevalence of self-reported hypertension ranging from 33% (India) to 78% (South Africa). Obesity was more common in South Africa, the Russia Federation and Mexico (45.2%, 36% and 28.6%, respectively) compared with China, India and Ghana (15.3%, 9.7% and 6.4%, respectively). China, Ghana and India had a higher prevalence of respondents with multiple risk factors than Mexico, the Russia Federation and South Africa. The occurrence of three and four risk factors was more prevalent in Mexico, the Russia Federation and South Africa. Conclusion: There were substantial variations across countries and settings, even between upper-middle income countries and lower-middle income countries. The baseline information on the magnitude of the problem of risk factors provided by this study can help countries and health policymakers to set up interventions addressing the global non-communicable disease epidemic.

154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
The relation of saturated fatty acids with low-grade inflammation and cardiovascular disease

[...]

Begoña Ruiz-Núñez1, D.A. Janneke Dijck-Brouwer1, Frits A. J. Muskiet1•
University Medical Center Groningen1
01 Oct 2016-Journal of Nutritional Biochemistry
TL;DR: Research regarding this heterogenic group of fatty acids and the mechanisms relating them to (chronic) systemic low-grade inflammation, insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome and notably CVD are summarized.
Abstract: The mantra that dietary (saturated) fat must be minimized to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has dominated nutritional guidelines for decades. Parallel to decreasing intakes of fat and saturated fatty acids (SFA), there have been increases in carbohydrate and sugar intakes, overweight, obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The "lipid hypothesis" coined the concept that fat, especially SFA, raises blood low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and thereby CVD risk. In view of current controversies regarding their adequate intakes and effects, this review aims to summarize research regarding this heterogenic group of fatty acids and the mechanisms relating them to (chronic) systemic low-grade inflammation, insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome and notably CVD. The intimate relationship between inflammation and metabolism, including glucose, fat and cholesterol metabolism, revealed that the dyslipidemia in Western societies, notably increased triglycerides, "small dense" low-density lipoprotein and "dysfunctional" high-density lipoprotein, is influenced by many unfavorable lifestyle factors. Dietary SFA is only one of these, not necessarily the most important, in healthy, insulin-sensitive people. The environment provides us not only with many other proinflammatory stimuli than SFA but also with many antiinflammatory counterparts. Resolution of the conflict between our self-designed environment and ancient genome may rather rely on returning to the proinflammatory/antiinflammatory balance of the Paleolithic era in consonance with the 21st century culture. Accordingly, dietary guidelines might reconsider recommendations for SFA replacement and investigate diet in a broader context, together with nondietary lifestyle factors. This should be a clear priority, opposed to the reductionist approach of studying the effects of single nutrients, such as SFA.

154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
State and national household concentrations of PM2.5 from solid cookfuel use: results from measurements and modeling in India for estimation of the global burden of disease.

[...]

Kalpana Balakrishnan1, Santu Ghosh1, Bhaswati Ganguli2, Sankar Sambandam1, Nigel Bruce3, Douglas F. Barnes, Kirk R. Smith4 •
Sri Ramachandra University1, University of Calcutta2, University of Liverpool3, University of California, Berkeley4
11 Sep 2013-Environmental Health
TL;DR: The model affords substantial improvement over commonly used exposure indicators such as “percent solid cookfuel use” in HAP disease burden assessments, by providing some of the first estimates of national average HAP levels experienced in India.
Abstract: Previous global burden of disease (GBD) estimates for household air pollution (HAP) from solid cookfuel use were based on categorical indicators of exposure. Recent progress in GBD methodologies that use integrated–exposure–response (IER) curves for combustion particles required the development of models to quantitatively estimate average HAP levels experienced by large populations. Such models can also serve to inform public health intervention efforts. Thus, we developed a model to estimate national household concentrations of PM2.5 from solid cookfuel use in India, together with estimates for 29 states. We monitored 24-hr household concentrations of PM2.5, in 617 rural households from 4 states in India on a cross-sectional basis between November 2004 and March 2005. We then, developed log-linear regression models that predict household concentrations as a function of multiple, independent household level variables available in national household surveys and generated national / state estimates using The Indian National Family and Health Survey (NFHS 2005). The measured mean 24-hr concentration of PM2.5 in solid cookfuel using households ranged from 163 μg/m3 (95% CI: 143,183; median 106; IQR: 191) in the living area to 609 μg/m3 (95% CI: 547,671; median: 472; IQR: 734) in the kitchen area. Fuel type, kitchen type, ventilation, geographical location and cooking duration were found to be significant predictors of PM2.5 concentrations in the household model. k-fold cross validation showed a fair degree of correlation (r = 0.56) between modeled and measured values. Extrapolation of the household results by state to all solid cookfuel-using households in India, covered by NFHS 2005, resulted in a modeled estimate of 450 μg/m3 (95% CI: 318,640) and 113 μg/m3 (95% CI: 102,127) , for national average 24-hr PM2.5 concentrations in the kitchen and living areas respectively. The model affords substantial improvement over commonly used exposure indicators such as “percent solid cookfuel use” in HAP disease burden assessments, by providing some of the first estimates of national average HAP levels experienced in India. Model estimates also add considerable strength of evidence for framing and implementation of intervention efforts at the state and national levels.

154 citations

References
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Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.